The Official 2023-2024 Utah Jazz Season Discussion Thread

[vryadli]

I found it on NBA power ranking, week 11:

They rank eighth defensively over this 8-3 stretch, which started when the Jazz started playing a lot of zone, including a good amount of box-and-one. For the season, they’ve allowed 0.95 points per zone possession, a mark which ranks third among 12 teams that have played at least 75 total possessions of zone, according to Synergy tracking.,

Actually I thought that Jazz defense was very reasonable, since I start watching, which was a surprise, given reports and stats of earlier in the season, but it looks that my eyes didn't deceive me.

[Crunch 99]

Returning from injury (25-November)

Kessler
is the best defending <10ft (overall)


and the 4th best defending >15ft (from the C)


I understand that Ainge wants to pump up Collins' value starting him but making Kessler a bencher means sabotaging the team

Hey McMurphy, Thanks for these stats through last Sunday morning. I thought I would answer you over here since Kessler isn't a big General Board topic. Can you please provide the link to that <10 ft defensive stat? I'd like to know so I can check it going forward.

I think the Jazz should be starting a Kessler, Markkanen and Fontecchio front line, but the Jazz managed to go 5-1 with the starting front line of Collins, Markkanen and Fontecchio. Winning hurts the sabotage argument. And the Collins, Markkanen and Fontecchio front line might be improving. Tiny sample, but that front line averaged +7ppg/game the last two games, while Collins averaged +6.5/game. If the Jazz are figuring out a way to get Collins to fit in better, that's a good thing.

A big plus from Kessler and the bench is definitely helping the Jazz win recent games. The bench is +7/game over last six games, while the starters are +1.2/game. The Kessler, Olynyk and Clarkson three man bench lineup is +9.2/game over last six games.

https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/traditional?slug=traditional&GroupQuantity=3&TeamID=1610612762&DateFrom=12%2F29%2F2023&DateTo=01%2F10%2F2024

[mcmurphy]

Hey McMurphy, Thanks for these stats through last Sunday morning. I thought I would answer you over here since Kessler isn't a popular General Board topic. Can you please provide the link to that <10 ft defensive stat? I want to know so I can check it going forward.

Hi Crunch,
this is the link

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defense-dash-lt10?CF=FGA_LT_10*G*130&DateFrom=11/25/2023&PerMode=Totals&dir=A&sort=PLUSMINUS

the filters are:
- since 11/25/2023 (returning from injury of Kessler)
- at least 130 FG defended

Utah is my second team because of Fontecchio (italian) and Kessler-Lauri guys.

Since 25 November Fontecchio has joined the starting lineup permanently and is performing really well in defense (night and day compared to last year)

> 15ft

[Crunch 99]

Hey McMurphy, Thanks for these stats through last Sunday morning. I thought I would answer you over here since Kessler isn't a popular General Board topic. Can you please provide the link to that <10 ft defensive stat? I want to know so I can check it going forward.

Hi Crunch,
this is the link

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defense-dash-lt10?CF=FGA_LT_10*G*130&DateFrom=11/25/2023&PerMode=Totals&dir=A&sort=PLUSMINUS

the filters are:
- since 11/25/2023 (returning from injury of Kessler)
- at least 130 FG defended

Utah is my second team because of Fontecchio (italian) and Kessler-Lauri guys.

Since 25 November Fontecchio has joined the starting lineup permanently and is performing really well in defense (night and day compared to last year)

Spoiler:

> 15ft

Thanks for the link!

Font has been really good this season. He is living up to high hopes we had for him after seeing him play in 2022 Eurobasket. And he is better on defense than I expected.

[vryadli]

I understand that Ainge wants to pump up Collins' value starting him but making Kessler a bencher means sabotaging the team

Winning hurts the sabotage argument. And the Collins, Markkanen and Fontecchio front line might be improving.

A big plus from Kessler and the bench is definitely helping the Jazz win recent games. The bench is +7/game over last six games, while the starters are +1.2/game. The Kessler, Olynyk and Clarkson three man bench lineup is +9.2/game over last six games.

.

I never was able to comprehend the idea "he is good, so he has to be starter". I always thought if the better player can make more damage from bench, then he must come from the bench.

Playtime, yes,has mostly go to better player - but only if he is fit enough for long intense minutes. Kessler is big and big bodies are more difficult to move. Look at marathon runners, there are no 7-footers (if you don't count Conan of Cimmeria, who once overrun daughter of god)

[mcmurphy]

I never was able to comprehend the idea "he is good, so he has to be starter". I always thought if the better player can make more damage from bench, then he must come from the bench.

Playtime, yes,has mostly go to better player - but only if he is fit enough for long intense minutes. Kessler is big and big bodies are more difficult to move. Look at marathon runners, there are no 7-footers (if you don't count Conan of Cimmeria, who once overrun daughter of god)

sorry, but I don't comprend your logic

I could understand your logic only if you had a player like Ginobili that engine the bench with the playmaking e finish the game.

But is not the case of Collins - Kessler.

Imho Kessler should be starting and averaging around 30mpg.

[mcmurphy]

but the Jazz managed to go 5-1 with the starting front line of Collins, Markkanen and Fontecchio. Winning hurts the sabotage argument. And the Collins, Markkanen and Fontecchio front line might be improving. Tiny sample, but that front line averaged +7ppg/game the last two games, while Collins averaged +6.5/game. If the Jazz are figuring out a way to get Collins to fit in better, that's a good thing.

this

small sample size

since November 25

#14 3-players lineup with NetRtg > 0


#7 of Top_7 all with Kessler
10/14 with Kessler


#23 3-players lineup with NetRtg < 0


#9 of Bottom_11 3-players lineup with Collins

So it must be said that Utah won despite Collins... but starting with such a large handicap the margin between winning and losing becomes very thin... and in fact in these stretch of wins the point differential is very small

[vryadli]

I never was able to comprehend the idea "he is good, so he has to be starter". I always thought if the better player can make more damage from bench, then he must come from the bench.

Playtime, yes,has mostly go to better player - but only if he is fit enough for long intense minutes. Kessler is big and big bodies are more difficult to move. Look at marathon runners, there are no 7-footers (if you don't count Conan of Cimmeria, who once overrun daughter of god)

sorry, but I don't comprend your logic

I could understand your logic only if you had a player like Ginobili that engine the bench with the playmaking e finish the game.

But is not the case of Collins - Kessler.

Imho Kessler should be starting and averaging around 30mpg.

I am even more sorry. And comprehend your logic even less. Wouldn't any player get more points against weaker opposition for the same playing minutes? And aren't bench players are typically weaker?

[mcmurphy]

I never was able to comprehend the idea "he is good, so he has to be starter". I always thought if the better player can make more damage from bench, then he must come from the bench.

Playtime, yes,has mostly go to better player - but only if he is fit enough for long intense minutes. Kessler is big and big bodies are more difficult to move. Look at marathon runners, there are no 7-footers (if you don't count Conan of Cimmeria, who once overrun daughter of god)

sorry, but I don't comprend your logic

I could understand your logic only if you had a player like Ginobili that engine the bench with the playmaking e finish the game.

But is not the case of Collins - Kessler.

Imho Kessler should be starting and averaging around 30mpg.

I am even more sorry. And comprehend your logic even less. Wouldn't any player get more points against weaker opposition for the same playing minutes? And aren't bench players are typically weaker?

if it were up to you Jokic would have continued to start from the bench, destroy the opposing benches like he did throughout his rookie year and play just over 20mpg.

[vryadli]

I am even more sorry. And comprehend your logic even less. Wouldn't any player get more points against weaker opposition for the same playing minutes? And aren't bench players are typically weaker?

if it were up to you Jokic would have continued to start from the bench, destroy the opposing benches like he did throughout his rookie year and play just over 20mpg.

Oh! The stronger the opposition, the more points. Got it now. But I wouldn't calculate it myself for hundred years.

[BigJimFinn]

I posted a very harsh summary of the Jazz early season, so I feel the need to now acknowledge what is working so well.
Hardy has clearly found the optimal rotation, and even more importantly the players have embraced their roles in it.
Clarkson is happy with the free reign in the second unit, and has even changed his attitude towards passing.
Dunn has been better than ever before; I didn't believe he could work as a starter, but it works because the frontcourt has 3 real catch&shoot threats, and he is happy to play pass-first and take care of the ball. His (and Fontecchio's) defense has really improved the balance in the starting lineup.
I agree that Kessler should be a long-term starter and play 25-28 mins, but the offense would choke with him and Dunn starting together, so Collins is a better fit despite his own limitations. The little bunny hop on the catch still annoys me terribly, but Hardy is now leaning into the things he does well as an undersized, athletic stretch 5 rather than a star forward, a role that his skillset and IQ could never support, so lowering the expectation is the key here, and should help to find him a new home eventually.
When you find the real #1 ballhandler who can shoot off the dribble and run pick&rolls, you can start Kessler as the rim-roller and dunker-spot threat, or if Walker learns to be credible corner three shooter, he can force his way into the starting lineup. You also need to find the #1 ballhandler to close games consistently; Clarkson as a closer dominating the ball is like taking your weekly paycheck to a casino and betting it all on red. Whether Keyonte can become that #1 guy is very uncertain, but I think he is worth the opportunity to try and grow into that role for 2 seasons or so.
The Bucks win had a beautiful box score with 5 guys scoring between 19 and 21. It really helps the flow when your top guy is unselfish and happy to just be winning games.

[mcmurphy]

I posted a very harsh summary of the Jazz early season, so I feel the need to now recognize what is working so well.
Hardy has clearly found the optimal rotation, and even more importantly the players have embraced their roles in it.
Clarkson is happy with the free reign in the second unit, and has even changed his attitude towards passing.
Dunn has been better than ever before; I didn't believe he could work as a starter, but it works because the frontcourt has 3 real catch&shoot threats, and he is happy to play pass-first and take care of the ball. His (and Fontecchio's) defense has really improved the balance in the starting lineup.
I agree that Kessler should be a long-term starter and play 25-28 mins, but the offense would choke with him and Dunn starting together, so Collins is a better fit despite his own limitations. The little bunny hop on the catch still annoys me terribly, but Hardy is now leaning into the things he does well as an undersized, athletic stretch 5 rather than a star forward, a role that his skillset and IQ could never support, so lowering the expectation is the key here, and should help to find him a new home eventually.
When you find the real #1 ballhandler who can shoot off the dribble and run pick&rolls, you can start Kessler as the rim-roller and dunker-spot threat, or if Walker learns to be credible corner three shooter, he can force his way into the starting lineup. You also need to find the #1 ballhandler to close games consistently; Clarkson as a closer dominating the ball is like taking your weekly paycheck to a casino and betting it all on red. Whether Keyonte can become that #1 guy is very uncertain, but I think he is worth the opportunity to try and grow into that role for 2 seasons or so.
The Bucks win had a beautiful box score with 5 guys scoring between 19 and 21. It really helps the flow when your top guy is unselfish and happy to just be winning games.

very good post...

why not CP3 if it were cheap (in terms of assets)?
it would only be 1.5 seasons in the salary payroll

I don't see any other potential good PGs available

...and in case someone says he's done, I'd like to remind that this year playing 25-28 mpg at 38 years old he has the best NetRtg in GSW

[Crunch 99]

Winning hurts the sabotage argument. And the Collins, Markkanen and Fontecchio front line might be improving. If the Jazz are figuring out a way to get Collins to fit in better, that's a good thing.

A big plus from Kessler and the bench is definitely helping the Jazz win recent games. The bench is +7/game over last six games, while the starters are +1.2/game.

I never was able to comprehend the idea "he is good, so he has to be starter". I always thought if the better player can make more damage from bench, then he must come from the bench.

Clarkson is a great example. He plays with much more confidence, force and effectiveness in his old role coming off the bench than he was playing as a starter earlier this season. Keyonte George is playing more effectively coming off the bench as well. The last three games, Collins is looking the most engaged on both ends of the floor I have seen him play this season.

The Jazz had 34 assists playing against Denver last night. The players are moving and sharing the ball, and embracing their roles, whether coming off the bench or starting.

[BigJimFinn]

very good post...

why not CP3 if it were cheap (in terms of assets)?
it would only be 1.5 seasons in the salary payroll

I don't see any other potential good PGs available

...and in case someone says he's done, I'd like to remind that this year playing 25-28 mpg at 38 years old he has the best NetRtg in GSW

Why not CP3? Well, he would absolutely improve the team, but so did Mike Conley last season and Jazz gave him away for peanuts, so the chances of Ainge doing a 180 for a short term improvement are somewhere below zero.

A caveat to the good feeling: of the current lineup, I still only buy Lauri as a certain long term starter on a contender. The real strength of this rotation is the bench, where Clarkson-Kessler-Olynyk could well be the best 6-to-8 trio in the league. Unfortunately, as well as Sexton is playing now, his limitations are real, and basically him, Dunn, Collins and Fontecchio are also in the fifth-to-eighth rotation guy bracket. The hope is Keyonte and Hendricks can become plus starters, Sensabaugh might be another scorer off the bench type. This squad is several major moves away from being a credible playoff team. One thing I am convinced about is that Hardy can be the coach of such a team.

[bkohler]

One thing I am convinced about is that Hardy can be the coach of such a team.

Yeah, this is my real take away. It actually makes me want to move off some of our more valuable trade assets more because im pretty convinced Hardy can put together a boarder line playin team with whatever players he has.

If that’s the case might as well move some like Clarkson/Olynyk/etc that have value and still expect those holes to be filled by Hardy’s genius.

Also, I’ve wondered a bit if we ought to look at being sellers at the dead line, And then turn around and buy. A little more balance or the right under appreciated player could really do wonders for this team.

I’d be looking at someone like AJ Griffin in Atlanta. Someone who’s young, under team control and could thrive in Hardy’s culture.

[SoCalJazzFan]

I know some fans are all kumbaya with the team right now given their recent success, and I do like how they have selflessly and effectively played together recently, but I would be willing to shake it up in order to potentially elevate the ceiling of this team.

My target would be Dejounte Murray. Whether a direct trade with the Hawks or facilitating a trade, I would be willing to give up quite a bit to get him.

I'd readily give up any combo of Sexton, Olynyk, Tech, Ochai and THT, along with a couple of draft picks to make it happen. If they wanted Dunn, who would make a ton of sense next to Trae, it would give me pause, but I would probably do it as I wonder if he'd resign after this year (yeah, we should have locked him up longer- many of us thought that).

We could potentially then have two top 50 players while still having young, promising players and a lot of draft capital to continue to build the team in the future. The Jazz don't often get chances to trade for All Star caliber players.

[D Rog]

I know some fans are all kumbaya with the team right now given their recent success, and I do like how they have selflessly and effectively played together recently, but I would be willing to shake it up in order to potentially elevate the ceiling of this team.

My target would be Dejounte Murray. Whether a direct trade with the Hawks or facilitating a trade, I would be willing to give up quite a bit to get him.

I'd readily give up any combo of Sexton, Olynyk, Tech, Ochai and THT, along with a couple of draft picks to make it happen. If they wanted Dunn, who would make a ton of sense next to Trae, it would give me pause, but I would probably do it as I wonder if he'd resign after this year (yeah, we should have locked him up longer- many of us thought that).

We could potentially then have two top 50 players while still having young, promising players and a lot of draft capital to continue to build the team in the future. The Jazz don't often get chances to trade for All Star caliber players.

I agree and I have wanted Dejounte for the Jazz since he was with the Spurs. That being said, I am not sure any of those players you mentioned would be all that enticing for ATL. They could be part of a 3 team trade. ATL would obviously be interested in draft capital but you probably have to get a 3rd team involved. There are articles out there saying 1/4 the teams in the league have expressed interest in him (Miami, Philly, NYK, Toronto, Lakers, Warriors, Spurs). I haven't seen anything about the Jazz expressing interest and the most glaring need for the Jazz, IMHO is a true top 10-15 PG. The interesting thing is Hardy was with the Spurs while Dejounte was there for a few years. Hardy should have a good idea of whether or not he would be a good fit for the Jazz. Less than a month to the deadline. I don't see the Jazz sitting on their hands.

[Inigo Montoya]

I think the Jazz should aim higher than Murray, frankly. There should be a lot of movement when the season is over, if not before. I'd wait for a bigger target. I suppose I won't be that upset if they get Murray (depending on what we give up) but I'm not as high on him as others are. I'd be willing to sit tight and let things play out.

[bkohler]

I think the Jazz should aim higher than Murray, frankly. There should be a lot of movement when the season is over, if not before. I'd wait for a bigger target. I suppose I won't be that upset if they get Murray (depending on what we give up) but I'm not as high on him as others are. I'd be willing to sit tight and let things play out.

I feel like Murray level players (I’d stick Lavine in that boat) only make sense at an extremely heavy discount. Getting Murray for a 1st and Clarkson or something like that, great! Sending out more assets than that really feels like the wrong direction until we’ve got the 1A star locked in.

[SoCalJazzFan]

I need help deciphering this info.

Maybe I need an account with nba.com to create a link, or maybe I’m just a (Please Use More Appropriate Word), but I can’t figure out how to get a clean image of the below:

LINEUPS GP W L MIN OFFRTG DEFRTG NETRTG AST% AST/TO AST RATIO OREB% DREB% REB% TOV% EFG% TS% PACE PIE
K. Dunn - L. Markkanen - J. Collins - C. Sexton - S. Fontecchio 9 8 1 106 127.0 121.6 5.5 74.3 3.00 23.8 26.3 77.7 52.5 11.6 61.4 64.9 105.30 53.9
K. Olynyk - J. Clarkson - O. Agbaji - W. Kessler - K. George 9 8 1 60 117.3 107.8 9.6 66.1 1.95 20.6 34.5 63.8 51.9 15.0 58.3 61.0 101.78 56.6
J. Clarkson - L. Markkanen - W. Kessler - S. Fontecchio - K. George 10 8 2 48 114.7 93.1 21.6 56.8 1.25 16.4 44.6 83.0 63.3 19.6 52.0 55.5 102.10 58.3
K. Olynyk - J. Clarkson - J. Collins - O. Agbaji - K. George 7 6 1 45 96.9 105.3 -8.4 66.7 1.69 16.1 39.6 78.4 58.7 13.5 44.6 49.6 100.37 49.5
K. Dunn - L. Markkanen - C. Sexton - W. Kessler - S. Fontecchio 8 6 2 33 129.3 103.9 25.4 61.1 3.14 20.0 35.9 79.4 56.2 9.3 57.6 60.7 108.64 57.9


The search is for the last 17 games (I believe since Sexton and Dunn have been starting since Dec 14th) for 5 man lineups playing at least 30 mins together. Advanced stats to show net rating.

John Collins starting at center with Kessler on the bench seems to be the reason pointed out by many for the recent success. Collins in the starting 5 is a respectable plus 5.5. However, when Kessler plays with same players the net rating jumps to over plus 25! Lineups with Collins have the lowest net rating.

I think that this is what McMurphy might have been referring to above but with 3 man lineups and a different time frame.


Question is, are we propping Collins up for a trade? If not, why do recent games with Collins as starting center seem to be a great result, but the stats don’t bear that out?