The decline of Jordan Clarkson

[bkohler]

I posted about this is the Hornet/Jazz thread but I thought this might be worth a new thread to discuss it itself but, Jordan Clarkson is well... bad. And I'm not sure we as Jazz fans have understood how bad he has been this year.

I think it might be time for us (and the Jazz) to come to grips with the fact that Jordan is not the player he was last year, and last year was a step down from previous years. He's currently shooting 29% from three, has as sub replacement level PER, is considered the fourth worst player in the NBA (!) according to BPM, His defensive rating is 511/543 and worse his offensive rating is 402/543. DPM says he's the worse top 7 rotation defender in the NBA. His true shooting percentage is 182 out of 196 players that qualify.

It's hard for me to say this but it might be time for him to move completely out of the rotation - maybe even take a few weeks off to rest. He's now functioning nearly entirely off of reputation and his +/- numbers for individual games tell the same story. The only time he's put together back to back positive plus minus numbers also happened to be when the Jazz went on a winning streak. Maybe the key to the Jazz wining is just replacing his minutes with well... anyone, as there's only 5 players that Vorp would say wouldn't lead to more wins if you replaced his minutes with theirs.

A few more things of note, he currently has 4 more games of positive +/- than Taylor Hendricks. His closest comparison statistically this year is Jordan Poole. According to cleaning the glass the Jazz are better off in every major statistically category expect for FT Rate when he plays. Clean the glass also projects he makes the team 11(!) games worse. He's got a single lineup he's played with more than 100 possessions that has a positive differential and that's only +7.

The argument for JC has long been: You just need someone who can put the ball in the bucket. Except the bucket getting is not happening this year. He's consuming more possesions than ever and doing it less efficiently than he's done his entire career. Currently he has the 38th highest usage rate in the NBA. But of the top 200 players in usage only Ausar Thompson, Josh Giddey, Russell Westbrook and Jordan Poole as shooting worse than he is according to true shooting percentage and only Jordan Poole (poor wizards fans) is shooting worse by effective fg%.


If the Jazz are looking to win (or even really be competitive) is it time to sit JC?

[HadAnEffectHere]

He's really awful and he fills zero needs on the roster. The Jazz need to hope some super desperate and cash strapped contender trades for him next summer hoping he can bounce back.

[bkohler]

Yeah, I wonder if they had anyone interested in him at the deadline this year. I worry we'll have to pay to unload him in the offseason. Maybe we can package him and John Collins together and give up the 2nd we got and just get out from those two contracts.

[Inigo Montoya]

Clarkson is on a very good contract and he'd have plenty of suitors if the Jazz decided to trade him. I'm not concerned about getting value for him.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Clarkson is on a very good contract and he'd have plenty of suitors if the Jazz decided to trade him. I'm not concerned about getting value for him.

The issue is just that he plays the least valuable archetype in the NBA and has been one of the worst players in the NBA so it's not clear he is on a good contract at this point.

[Inigo Montoya]

Clarkson is on a very good contract and he'd have plenty of suitors if the Jazz decided to trade him. I'm not concerned about getting value for him.

The issue is just that he plays the least valuable archetype in the NBA and has been one of the worst players in the NBA so it's not clear he is on a good contract at this point.

On the other hand, he has a track record as one of the better sixth men in the league in the past decade. In other words, he's a proven commodity at this point. Some contenders would be happy to have him, especially on that contract.

Do I think his archetype is common? Yes. But there is value in knowing what he can do. Do I think you can get about 80% of his production from Bones Hyland for a fraction of the price? Yes. But we also see that Hyland has been pushed out of the rotation of the Clippers, and if they had Clarkson they'd play him. He's having a down year but he's still valuable, especially with the way the Jazz structured his contract.

[bkohler]

He's having a down year but he's still valuable, especially with the way the Jazz structured his contract.

I think this is where I'm a little more frightened of the prospects of moving him; he's not just having a down year. Statistically, he's having one of the worst NBA seasons ever. Using statshead I can find less than 10 players who have shoot so poorly and so often while bringing nothing else to the table.

[mg]

Before the ASG I flew in for a few days and caught a game while in town (Warrior game). It was impossible not to notice Clarkson had very bad body language especially compared to the rest of the team. Maybe he was upset about the deadline moves but it was obvious something was bugging him.

It's like Hardy is still trying to stroke his ego by gifting him a ton of minutes he hasn't deserved this season. There was no reason to play him the entire 4th quarter as basically a small SF last night against the Hornets. The team was playing well with Hendricks out there. I will always be a JC fan but it's getting more noticeable that it's probably time for him to move on at this point. He's a vet and of course is going to demand minutes especially with the hierarchal system of the NBA.

Maybe too the FO is trying to raise his value back up with some good play coming down the stretch. He was really hard to watch last night though.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Clarkson is on a very good contract and he'd have plenty of suitors if the Jazz decided to trade him. I'm not concerned about getting value for him.

The issue is just that he plays the least valuable archetype in the NBA and has been one of the worst players in the NBA so it's not clear he is on a good contract at this point.

On the other hand, he has a track record as one of the better sixth men in the league in the past decade. In other words, he's a proven commodity at this point. Some contenders would be happy to have him, especially on that contract.

Do I think his archetype is common? Yes. But there is value in knowing what he can do. Do I think you can get about 80% of his production from Bones Hyland for a fraction of the price? Yes. But we also see that Hyland has been pushed out of the rotation of the Clippers, and if they had Clarkson they'd play him. He's having a down year but he's still valuable, especially with the way the Jazz structured his contract.

I mean, if he was 28 this wouldn't be a concern, but he's 32 in a couple months so he may just have fallen off and this is now his level of play.

He's basically unplayable on any good team at this level of play so anyone who trades for it has to hope he just had a random super down year at 31 years old that he can bounce back from.

[bkohler]

I wonder if letting him sit for a few weeks would be good. His best stretch (really his only good stretch this season) came after he sat for a half dozen games. This type of falloff might be age-related, but there also might be some nagging injury that they're just not talking about. One of his closest statistical comparisons for this season is the Isiah Thomas (the small one) seasons in LAL, in which you saw an undersized shoot first guard seem to lose it overnight because of injury and age; the same thing might be happening here.

There were reports that Clarkson would welcome a trade a few weeks ago, so it might also be a chemistry thing.

Either way, I hope we can move off him this offseason. I wonder if the smartest thing to do would be to shut him down to maintain the perception of value. If he keeps playing like this for another 25 games and finishes with awful numbers, that might do more to hurt the value than anything. If we shut him down for some injury, a team might look at it as him just needing to get right and be in the right system again.

[bkohler]

It's like Hardy is still trying to stroke his ego by gifting him a ton of minutes he hasn't deserved this season.

It's funny because David Locke talks a bunch about how you can't just give someone minutes they don't deserve when it's clearly been happening with JC for a bit now. In just a comparison of his minutes vs Collin Sextons it's pretty clear one of them should be playing more. Right now, JC averages about 6 minutes more than Sexton but is worse in every statistical category I can find besides rebounds, and if you look at per 100 possessions, they rebound at the same rate. In fact, it's almost scary how closely they align stat-wise looking at possession data, but the offensive rating with Sexton instead of JC is a 124 compared to a 107.

Just swapping those minutes and having Sexton play 30ish and JC play 24 would probably make a significant difference. In the last five games, Jordan hasn't played less than 32 minutes, and Sexton broke 30 minutes once. Besides that he has had less than 26 a game. So, since the trade, JC is actually trending towards more minutes and Sexton less.

[D Rog]

If I had to place a $100 bet on who the Jazz would have (should have) traded this past trade deadline, it would have been Clarkson. I have read in a few places that Ryan Smith really likes him. I can't believe that would have an impact on Danny trading him. He may be a nice guy but DAMN, just look at the stats. The Jazz are supposedly going younger and they kept the 2nd oldest guy on the team?

[red4hf]

He's not awful, he's just not as effective as he was, and apparently everyone sees it, except our coaching staff.......

[bkohler]

Right on queue, Jordan has one of his best games of the season. If you look at it by Game Score, he had his 8th-best game of this season. By plus-minus, it was his 4th best.

One thing that seems to be the key is his Assists; we're 6-2 when he has more than 6 assists.

[D Rog]

Right on queue, Jordan has one of his best games of the season. If you look at it by Game Score, he had his 8th-best game of this season. By plus-minus, it was his 4th best.

One thing that seems to be the key is his Assists; we're 6-2 when he has more than 6 assists.

Followed by one more bad game.
2-10 fg%
0-3 from 3pt
8 assists
in 27 minutes of playing time.

I understood moving Olynyk. I even understood moving Ochai. I disagreed with moving Fontechio. My biggest disagreement with the FO was keeping JC. I would have found the best offer (not expecting much) and moved him. I don't really see the value he brings to a rebuilding team.

I got a laugh when I pulled up the J Notes article about the Jazz deciding to tank and what picture is right there?

[bkohler]

I honestly think there wasn't a market to move Jordan without attaching value.

[Wolverine]

He’s leading the tank. With Jordan chances of keeping our pick increase substantially

[D Rog]

This should say it all

https://www.slcdunk.com/2024/3/1/24087662/utah-jazz-jordan-clarkson-nba-offseason

Specifically, get past the 3 pics and read where JC ranks in comparison to other NBA players

[Inigo Montoya]

No question Clarkson is having a bad season. But now that the Jazz has essentially shifted to tanking, doesn't it serve their purpose?

[vryadli]

He’s leading the tank. With Jordan chances of keeping our pick increase substantially

Evidently he understood FO message better than anyone else. So he is rewarded with PT. I expect him to stay with Jazz longer than LM, Sexton or Kessler.