OKC Thunder 2023-24 Regular Season Discussion

[Clav]

What is Isaiah Joe's next contract?

4/80M

Bogdanovic esque....


I wouldn't do it but it's tending that way in my opinion

[Bremzi]

What is Isaiah Joe's next contract?

4/80M

Bogdanovic esque....


I wouldn't do it but it's tending that way in my opinion

That’s just wrong. If Joe doesn’t accept something reasonable, Presti is just going to pick up team option for 2 mil next year. Joe will be happy to get 4/40 mil, meaning it would amount to 13 per year on top of his next year’s 2mil salary. Besides, he didn’t really play anywhere close to garner anything more. Apart from his 3pt shooting, nothing stands out.

[Clav]

I don't think we're gonna offer 80M but he's definitely moving towards a big contract IMO. Joe is approaching Bodgan Bogdanovic (ATL) level of play and with a rising cap, the equivalent level of pay goes up too. I wouldn't be surprised to see an offer at Joe in the 60-80M range... MLE, level like 4/40 is a bargain!

Though OKC should absolutely offer him a reasonable extension of that level, I am unsure Joe will accept it. Lets hope I'm wrong on the big # [Authors note on predictions: I don't ever trust NBA GMs to be logical, my predictions =/= to what I would offer if I were in the same position, I assume they are idiots ]

[Kizz Fastfists]

If Joe takes an extension this off-season to replace the $2M option then 4/$50 is reasonable. That is a $16M/yr extension and lets him hit FA again at the end of his prime. If he goes to FA then it becomes something like 4/$80M given that shooters tend to get paid on the open market. Money is more valuable today compared to future money which encourage Joe to take the extension. His agent might advise him to wait, but that requires an expectation of something closer 4/$90 next off-season to offset the delay of money and the compound interest that could be earned off it. If you give him 4/$50M OKC is also in the position to front load it if they plan on sitting on their hands again this off-season. Given their decisions to do nothing last off-season or at the deadline there should be an expectation of them doing nothing this off-season and praying to whatever deity they worship for "internal growth" and an impact rookie.

OKC could end up with the 16th pick depending on how Houston finishes the season. Houston can easily slide into a play-in spot and it is not unrealistic for them to beat LAL in their first game and Phoenix in their second game. Houston split their regular season games with both of them this season and seems to be playing better ball than either of them right now.

[1bigfan13]

Dort getting 5/$87 almost 2 years ago makes me believe Joe's average salary will exceed that amount.

Dort got his extension largely for being a high end defender. The logic I've frequently heard from former players is scoring/shooting gets you paid more than being a defender. That's why I think a consistent 3-point shooter like Joe will likely be around that $20M per year mark.

Plus he's helped himself this year by showing that he's more than a spot up shooter who has to depend on others to get his shot off. He's made quite a few hyper-athletic plays at the rim this season and he's shown that he can create his own shot off the dribble and consistently hit midrange shots.

[1bigfan13]

I don't think the Wolves are such a bad match up despite the size issue. It's a small sample size but somehow we struggled more against the Lakers (Chet couldn't defend on AD) and Sac to a lesser extent.

I've said the same thing about the Timberwolves. On paper, yes, they have a tremendous size advantage over OKC. But KAT's style of play negates that height advantage. They're "twin towers" in name only because KAT's not a rim protector and he spends most of his time on offense operating on the perimeter. He's not going to punish you inside for putting a smaller defender on him.

[RingoKid]

Biz, Muscrat and J-Will aren't gonna cut the mustard backing up Chet.

The Kid's gonna get banged up in the post season and it ain't gonna be pretty.

No Chet, no chance!

[Bremzi]

Dort getting 5/$87 almost 2 years ago makes me believe Joe's average salary will exceed that amount.

Dort got his extension largely for being a high end defender. The logic I've frequently heard from former players is scoring/shooting gets you paid more than being a defender. That's why I think a consistent 3-point shooter like Joe will likely be around that $20M per year mark.

Plus he's helped himself this year by showing that he's more than a spot up shooter who has to depend on others to get his shot off. He's made quite a few hyper-athletic plays at the rim this season and he's shown that he can create his own shot off the dribble and consistently hit midrange shots.

This is a joke. You do realise Isiah Joe has played 18-19 minutes per game this and past season, has averaged 8-9 points per game, 2 rebounds per game, 1 asist per game and less than 1 stock combined.

He’s a bench player and not even an important one at that with his 19 mpg. In what fictional scenario does that garner 20 mil a year hahaha.

Dort got the extension because at the time he was basically the second building block next to SGA and was underpair previously. Today, when OKC has 3 soon to be max players, Giddey, new talent coming in etc., a bench player for less than 20 mins a game will not get 20 mil per year.

I stand by that he is a MLE type player with 4/40 extension starting this offseason very fair, if he is a part of Presti’s future core. He’s nowhere near close to either of Bogdanovic guys, because those guys averaged way more points and other stats and had a significantly more important role. I’m not sure even Giddey can reasonably expect anything in the 20 mil per year proximity.

[Woerzboerg]

Finally, we are back in the playoffs again. Big moment for OKC and the team. I hope we can make it an arrival.

[ThunderBolt]

Finally, we are back in the playoffs again. Big moment for OKC and the team. I hope we can make it an arrival.

I'm more concerned about health than matchups.

[Big nick]

Finally, we are back in the playoffs again. Big moment for OKC and the team. I hope we can make it an arrival.

I'm more concerned about health than matchups.

Health is a very big concern for us sga thigh is a very big problem and chet looks banged up.

[Devilanche]

Dort getting 5/$87 almost 2 years ago makes me believe Joe's average salary will exceed that amount.

Dort got his extension largely for being a high end defender. The logic I've frequently heard from former players is scoring/shooting gets you paid more than being a defender. That's why I think a consistent 3-point shooter like Joe will likely be around that $20M per year mark.

Plus he's helped himself this year by showing that he's more than a spot up shooter who has to depend on others to get his shot off. He's made quite a few hyper-athletic plays at the rim this season and he's shown that he can create his own shot off the dribble and consistently hit midrange shots.

This is a joke. You do realise Isiah Joe has played 18-19 minutes per game this and past season, has averaged 8-9 points per game, 2 rebounds per game, 1 asist per game and less than 1 stock combined.

He’s a bench player and not even an important one at that with his 19 mpg. In what fictional scenario does that garner 20 mil a year hahaha.

Dort got the extension because at the time he was basically the second building block next to SGA and was underpair previously. Today, when OKC has 3 soon to be max players, Giddey, new talent coming in etc., a bench player for less than 20 mins a game will not get 20 mil per year.

I stand by that he is a MLE type player with 4/40 extension starting this offseason very fair, if he is a part of Presti’s future core. He’s nowhere near close to either of Bogdanovic guys, because those guys averaged way more points and other stats and had a significantly more important role. I’m not sure even Giddey can reasonably expect anything in the 20 mil per year proximity.

Would love to be closer to yours that his . But I think he’s probably getting around the 15/16m range minimally.
Shooting gets someone paid .

[Clav]

Dort getting 5/$87 almost 2 years ago makes me believe Joe's average salary will exceed that amount.

Dort got his extension largely for being a high end defender. The logic I've frequently heard from former players is scoring/shooting gets you paid more than being a defender. That's why I think a consistent 3-point shooter like Joe will likely be around that $20M per year mark.

Plus he's helped himself this year by showing that he's more than a spot up shooter who has to depend on others to get his shot off. He's made quite a few hyper-athletic plays at the rim this season and he's shown that he can create his own shot off the dribble and consistently hit midrange shots.

This is a joke. You do realise Isiah Joe has played 18-19 minutes per game this and past season, has averaged 8-9 points per game, 2 rebounds per game, 1 asist per game and less than 1 stock combined.

He’s a bench player and not even an important one at that with his 19 mpg. In what fictional scenario does that garner 20 mil a year hahaha.

Dort got the extension because at the time he was basically the second building block next to SGA and was underpair previously. Today, when OKC has 3 soon to be max players, Giddey, new talent coming in etc., a bench player for less than 20 mins a game will not get 20 mil per year.

I stand by that he is a MLE type player with 4/40 extension starting this offseason very fair, if he is a part of Presti’s future core. He’s nowhere near close to either of Bogdanovic guys, because those guys averaged way more points and other stats and had a significantly more important role. I’m not sure even Giddey can reasonably expect anything in the 20 mil per year proximity.

Would love to be closer to yours that his . But I think he’s probably getting around the 15/16m range minimally.
Shooting gets someone paid .

Exactly my thoughts. I would love to offer 4/40, 4/50, and Joe happily accept... To me, that is fair for a niche shooter, especially a bench piece.

I just see these shooters getting massive contracts because that's what the League loves, and agents know that, so they get their guys the big bags. We see it time and time again.. Bertans is legitimately a prime example of a shooter with little to no defense, little to no handle (both less than Joe), and he got a 17M a year....

If that's not bad enough, go up and down some rosters over the past few years for specialist shooters. Who is there ?

Duncan Robinson - 18M
Bogdan Bogdanovic - 17M
Bojan Bogdanovic (larger and more nominally a SF, but still) - 20M
Joe Harris - 19M
JJ Reddick in that one or two years b4 he retired - 23M
Jordan Poole (arguably a worse player than Joe) - 32M
THJ - (though THJ has some okay defense at time, he's still streaky) - 18.7M
Huerter - 16M
Strus - 16M
Reaves - 14M (this is honestly a discount for the handle and initiation he provides)


So yeah, 10M / MLE money is probably not gonna be the offer.. Joe is young, he's dramatically improved in this season and is now a reputable shooter. Would love to split the difference on 20M a year and MLE and meet him at 3/45. Less years, but still a chance to sign another contract in his prime.

[Woerzboerg]

I would pay him a little bit more and structure the deal frontloaded.

[Kizz Fastfists]

OKC's advantage when negotiating with Joe is the team option for $2M. Giving Joe 4/$50M would be the equivalent of him signing for 3/$48M next off-season, but he'd be getting a chunk of his money sooner. It is also guaranteeing him that money in the event of injury. Anything under 4/$40M he probably takes his chances, but something between $40-50M should get the job done.

[slick_watts]

some thoughts.

i would let isaiah joe play on his option year and test free agency. wasting cap space to keep him seems like an inefficient use of our resources. isaiah joe is a decent player but he's a role player. the thunder have to have fixing their starting lineup as their #1 priority this offseason. if joe walks after next year he can be replaced.

josh giddey's march has been interesting, and defined mostly by some outlier shot making from everywhere on the court. he's still not getting to the line. one of the big factors was how often his shots are getting blocked. through february, over 15% of his rim attempts were getting blocked. last season it was about 9%. in march it was 5.8%, which is a lower rate than guys like giannis and kawhi. so probably not sustainable, but the 15% from the rest of the year probably isn't either. the truth is in the middle.

he is shooting 41% from three in march. obviously something we should not expect to continue. and his %'s on non-blocked rim and mid-range attempts are also higher than normal.

his improved shot making has been timely, but it hasn't influenced my overall thoughts on his future with the team. we saw this happen last year when he was on an upward trajectory and then spent 50 games this season looking like a husk. and he's still a liability on defense.

speaking of husks, chet holmgren has had his three worst games in the last two weeks. chet's up to 2200 minutes this season and i think it's fair to question whether or not playing every game was a smart goal for him to have, or even one the team should have co-signed. chet hadn't played competitive ball for about 1.5 years prior to the start of the regular season, and 2200+ minutes is a lot. if he's not right for the playoffs i don't like our chances.

jalen williams' ability to score efficiently as a high usage wing with a relatively low FTr and 3PAr is singular to him in the last ten seasons. bubble t.j. warren is the only one close. if jdub can maintain what he's doing now and add in more 3pa and free throws, the sky is the limit.

[Kizz Fastfists]

I would agree that solving the starting lineup should be the priority. I also am of the opinion that Presti believes he has his starting five. Presti made no moves to indicate he sees any issues with the roster composition.

My off-season expectations are very low. Draft a wing with the Houston pick, extend Joe and perhaps Wiggins and Jaylin. This will lock in Presti’s guys and then he’ll start talking about internal growth and improvement through youth and picks until the window closes with SGA leaving like KD did.

[Clav]

Hayward was a -39 in games played from March 24 to April 1. 395th worst of 411 players. He has been okay in some game, but overall will need to improve his play with us to improve our playoff chances.

[The Servant]

I would agree that solving the starting lineup should be the priority. I also am of the opinion that Presti believes he has his starting five. Presti made no moves to indicate he sees any issues with the roster composition.

My off-season expectations are very low. Draft a wing with the Houston pick, extend Joe and perhaps Wiggins and Jaylin. This will lock in Presti’s guys and then he’ll start talking about internal growth and improvement through youth and picks until the window closes with SGA leaving like KD did.

He has over committed to draft picks blossoming and it did hurt OKC. He hit on a lot of success but he's also done well through trades so he should be more open to the trade market. I hope we get what we need this Summer but I also wouldn't be surprised if he over commits to the current roster to my dismay.

[Bremzi]

About the salaries - there’s 240 minutes of playing time per game. In a world where the payroll is 150-max200ish milion per team, you cant offer a guy with 20 minutes per game 20 mil. A part of that cap goes to players who arent even playing typically (10-15 slots). A part of that is tied to superstars who earn 35-40 mil, i.e. 1mil/1min played.


Essentially, the deal for bench players is likely around the ratio of 1mpg/0.5mil, which would translate to 10mil annually for a player getting consistent 20mpg. If Joe doesn’t take a 4/40 deal, pick up his 2 mil option and let him test his health and FA later. OKC doesnt ride and die because of Joe. He might get more elsewhere (in a year), but its not certain that he does and he might not like the team that offers him that. I think we can agree that those shooters’ contract mentioned above are all pretty much horrible (except maybe both Bogdanovic guys who are obviously better and/or bigger players).

It’s better to lose a noncore guy than to overpay him for 4-5 years and then be stuck with that salary or being forced to give an additional pick just to get rid of it.