If Harden remained with the Thunder...

[bondom34]

If I can't say that then why can we assume we'd have vet minimum players starting at PF/C? Which is really the more likely scenario?

Serge was obviously worth a late lotto pick at the time anyway, so why assume no Steven?

Because the vet min thing is the salary cap, its not anything that is under anyone's control. That's 100 percent likely.

And Serge didn't have Harden's value. And you're still hurting the defense. Harden would be a great add to this team, but what would be subtracted more than makes up for it.

[spearsy23]

If I can't say that then why can we assume we'd have vet minimum players starting at PF/C? Which is really the more likely scenario?

Serge was obviously worth a late lotto pick at the time anyway, so why assume no Steven?

Because the vet min thing is the salary cap, its not anything that is under anyone's control. That's 100 percent likely.

And Serge didn't have Harden's value. And you're still hurting the defense. Harden would be a great add to this team, but what would be subtracted more than makes up for it.

The vet minimum thing implies presti blows every draft pick since 2012, which is ridiculously implausible, and doesnt make a single other move besides signing vet minimums. That's not 100% likely, it's an asinine worst case scenario. No, Serge didn't have Harden's value, he could've easily brought back a backup pf and late lotto pick. Harden returned 2 Lottos and a former all-star.

Serge was 42nd among pf's in drpm this year. Yeah, it hurts the defense, but it helps everything else way more. And not getting Kanter or Dion also helps the defense. (Oh, and why could we not have Kanter instead of a vet minimum guy.... You're okay with dealing in negative hypothetical, just not positive ones).

[bondom34]

The vet minimum thing implies presti blows every draft pick since 2012, which is ridiculously implausible, and doesnt make a single other move besides signing vet minimums. That's not 100% likely, it's an asinine worst case scenario. No, Serge didn't have Harden's value, he could've easily brought back a backup pf and late lotto pick. Harden returned 2 Lottos and a former all-star.

Serge was 42nd among pf's in drpm this year. Yeah, it hurts the defense, but it helps everything else way more. And not getting Kanter or Dion also helps the defense. (Oh, and why could we not have Kanter instead of a vet minimum guy.... You're okay with dealing in negative hypothetical, just not positive ones).

No it doesn't, it implies they're at or over the cap, which is where they were with Serge and no Harden. This is the inverse. And check Serge's RAPM, it was way way higher (RPM has some big box score issues).
Look at the sort of FA moves made currently and flip that from trying to find a decent wing to trying to find a decent big. They'd have the exact same problems we saw when it was Perk starting, nobody down low to do anything, and the defense would flat be bad.

[spearsy23]

The vet minimum thing implies presti blows every draft pick since 2012, which is ridiculously implausible, and doesnt make a single other move besides signing vet minimums. That's not 100% likely, it's an asinine worst case scenario. No, Serge didn't have Harden's value, he could've easily brought back a backup pf and late lotto pick. Harden returned 2 Lottos and a former all-star.

Serge was 42nd among pf's in drpm this year. Yeah, it hurts the defense, but it helps everything else way more. And not getting Kanter or Dion also helps the defense. (Oh, and why could we not have Kanter instead of a vet minimum guy.... You're okay with dealing in negative hypothetical, just not positive ones).

No it doesn't, it implies they're at or over the cap, which is where they were with Serge and no Harden. This is the inverse.

And used draft picks to improve... If you're talking only the season following the Harden trade then Collison would've started and whoever we got back in trade would've split minutes with him.

And check Serge's RAPM, it was way way higher (RPM has some big box score issues).

Single year DRAPM was 0.23. Still not impressive.

Look at the sort of FA moves made currently and flip that from trying to find a decent wing to trying to find a decent big. They'd have the exact same problems we saw when it was Perk starting, nobody down low to do anything, and the defense would flat be bad.

Once again you're absolutely ignoring the draft and that we would've gotten something back for Serge. Also, unless I'm mistaken Bismack biyombo is making the same as Morrow.

[bondom34]

The vet minimum thing implies presti blows every draft pick since 2012, which is ridiculously implausible, and doesnt make a single other move besides signing vet minimums. That's not 100% likely, it's an asinine worst case scenario. No, Serge didn't have Harden's value, he could've easily brought back a backup pf and late lotto pick. Harden returned 2 Lottos and a former all-star.

Serge was 42nd among pf's in drpm this year. Yeah, it hurts the defense, but it helps everything else way more. And not getting Kanter or Dion also helps the defense. (Oh, and why could we not have Kanter instead of a vet minimum guy.... You're okay with dealing in negative hypothetical, just not positive ones).

No it doesn't, it implies they're at or over the cap, which is where they were with Serge and no Harden. This is the inverse.

And used draft picks to improve... If you're talking only the season following the Harden trade then Collison would've started and whoever we got back in trade would've split minutes with him.

And check Serge's RAPM, it was way way higher (RPM has some big box score issues).

Single year DRAPM was 0.23. Still not impressive.

Look at the sort of FA moves made currently and flip that from trying to find a decent wing to trying to find a decent big. They'd have the exact same problems we saw when it was Perk starting, nobody down low to do anything, and the defense would flat be bad.

Once again you're absolutely ignoring the draft and that we would've gotten something back for Serge. Also, unless I'm mistaken Bismack biyombo is making the same as Morrow.

And youre outlining a hypothetical dream where everything went perfectly and nobody got injured. Go back and look at the record of wings signed, now expect that caliber of big.

And if you're saying use draft picks to improve, how'd that go with wings too? Collison could have started one year, then they'd be back capped out with no bigs. You're using Serge's number from his worst year ever, while talking about prior seasons.

There's no guarantee they take Gobert, nobody thought Biyombo was good (and he's really still not), and they'd flip the problem from the wing to down low. The difference is we'd all ask "what would happen if OKC had a big worth a darn".

[spearsy23]

No it doesn't, it implies they're at or over the cap, which is where they were with Serge and no Harden. This is the inverse.

And used draft picks to improve... If you're talking only the season following the Harden trade then Collison would've started and whoever we got back in trade would've split minutes with him.

And check Serge's RAPM, it was way way higher (RPM has some big box score issues).

Single year DRAPM was 0.23. Still not impressive.

Look at the sort of FA moves made currently and flip that from trying to find a decent wing to trying to find a decent big. They'd have the exact same problems we saw when it was Perk starting, nobody down low to do anything, and the defense would flat be bad.

Once again you're absolutely ignoring the draft and that we would've gotten something back for Serge. Also, unless I'm mistaken Bismack biyombo is making the same as Morrow.

And youre outlining a hypothetical dream where everything went perfectly and nobody got injured. Go back and look at the record of wings signed, now expect that caliber of big.

I'm outlining a hypothetical where Presti doesn't go brain dead and screw up every single move he makes after trading Serge. You're working under some assumption that he trades Serge for a draft pick and blows it, blows the 27th pick, trades Reggie for a late 2nd, doesn't use the mmle, still trades a first for Dion, and blows last year's pick. You're talking about a roster that literally makes no improvements whatsoever after trading Serge.

if you're saying use draft picks to improve, how'd that go with wings too? Collison could have started one year, then they'd be back capped out with no bigs. You're using Serge's number from his worst year ever, while talking about prior seasons.

In the first round He has drafted Steven and Roberson, Mitch and Huestis, and Cam since the trade. I'd be pretty happy with that level of talent at the 4/5. Cam is the only guy we for sure wouldn't have had a shot at. Steven would most likely still be on the team, and if not the most likely scenario really is Gobert even if you don't believe it.

There's no guarantee they take Gobert, nobody thought Biyombo was good (and he's really still not), and they'd flip the problem from the wing to down low. The difference is we'd all ask "what would happen if OKC had a big worth a darn".

I've always liked Biyombo, he's a great defender and rim protector, which is all we need out of a center.

Seriously, your entire argument is based around Presti keeping Harden and trading Ibaka while getting nothing in return and not even bothering to use his other assets. Russ/Roberson/Harden/Durant/Steven is even a perfectly viable possibility if he'd traded Serge. And that team is undoubtedly better.

[bondom34]

[
I'm outlining a hypothetical where Presti doesn't go brain dead and screw up every single move he makes after trading Serge. You're working under some assumption that he trades Serge for a draft pick and blows it, blows the 27th pick, trades Reggie for a late 2nd, doesn't use the mmle, still trades a first for Dion, and blows last year's pick. You're talking about a roster that literally makes no improvements whatsoever after trading Serge.

if you're saying use draft picks to improve, how'd that go with wings too? Collison could have started one year, then they'd be back capped out with no bigs. You're using Serge's number from his worst year ever, while talking about prior seasons.

In the first round He has drafted Steven and Roberson, Mitch and Huestis, and Cam since the trade. I'd be pretty happy with that level of talent at the 4/5. Cam is the only guy we for sure wouldn't have had a shot at. Steven would most likely still be on the team, and if not the most likely scenario really is Gobert even if you don't believe it.

There's no guarantee they take Gobert, nobody thought Biyombo was good (and he's really still not), and they'd flip the problem from the wing to down low. The difference is we'd all ask "what would happen if OKC had a big worth a darn".

I've always liked Biyombo, he's a great defender and rim protector, which is all we need out of a center.

Seriously, your entire argument is based around Presti keeping Harden and trading Ibaka while getting nothing in return and not even bothering to use his other assets. Russ/Roberson/Harden/Durant/Steven is even a perfectly viable possibility if he'd traded Serge. And that team is undoubtedly better.

No, you're actually working on the basis of him hitting every single move that he didn't hit on with the Harden trade.

So you trade Serge, have no cap space and instead of getting a guy like A Mo who makes minimal contribution you're signing a high impact starter or backup.

Instead of drafting at 12 where you have your choice of whoever you're later in the first and taking risks on guys who were way more unknown but still hitting on a great pick.

And there's no way you get Adams in this scenario unless you're trading above the 12 spot, you weren't getting that high.

Realistically it was:
Russ/KD/Thabo/Perk/??? with Harden off the bench, a vet min guy at backup and whoever you get to replace Serge. They don't take Robes because you don't need yet another SG with both on the roster and you're still stuck with Perk for a while. In what world is Gobert a "likely" scenario when every GM passed on him outside a few and he was almost on the board when Robes was taken the same draft. That's actually the most unlikely scenario, that Presti hits on every minor error he missed on in this inverse situation.

[spearsy23]

[
I'm outlining a hypothetical where Presti doesn't go brain dead and screw up every single move he makes after trading Serge. You're working under some assumption that he trades Serge for a draft pick and blows it, blows the 27th pick, trades Reggie for a late 2nd, doesn't use the mmle, still trades a first for Dion, and blows last year's pick. You're talking about a roster that literally makes no improvements whatsoever after trading Serge.

if you're saying use draft picks to improve, how'd that go with wings too? Collison could have started one year, then they'd be back capped out with no bigs. You're using Serge's number from his worst year ever, while talking about prior seasons.

In the first round He has drafted Steven and Roberson, Mitch and Huestis, and Cam since the trade. I'd be pretty happy with that level of talent at the 4/5. Cam is the only guy we for sure wouldn't have had a shot at. Steven would most likely still be on the team, and if not the most likely scenario really is Gobert even if you don't believe it.

There's no guarantee they take Gobert, nobody thought Biyombo was good (and he's really still not), and they'd flip the problem from the wing to down low. The difference is we'd all ask "what would happen if OKC had a big worth a darn".

I've always liked Biyombo, he's a great defender and rim protector, which is all we need out of a center.

Seriously, your entire argument is based around Presti keeping Harden and trading Ibaka while getting nothing in return and not even bothering to use his other assets. Russ/Roberson/Harden/Durant/Steven is even a perfectly viable possibility if he'd traded Serge. And that team is undoubtedly better.

No, you're actually working on the basis of him hitting every single move that he didn't hit on with the Harden trade.

I'm working on the basis of him making similar and realistic moves.

So you trade Serge, have no cap space and instead of getting a guy like A Mo who makes minimal contribution you're signing a high impact starter or backup.

Remember how Morrow was a starter and high impact backup last year? He was pretty good at it too. Signing a similar player to him at the PF/C spot gives you a solid player, I.e. Biyombo or Ed Davis. Those would be equivalent moves.

Instead of drafting at 12 where you have your choice of whoever you're later in the first and taking risks on guys who were way more unknown but still hitting on a great pick.

Are you saying Serge wasn't worth a lotto pick? It's not pick 12 you wouldn't have got, it's Jeremy Lamb and Kevin Martin. Realistic trade, using the rockets for simplicity, would've been Donotas Motiejunas and the pick. Serge still had terrific value, even if it wasn't Harden value.

And there's no way you get Adams in this scenario unless you're trading above the 12 spot, you weren't getting that high.

Rockets wouldn't have taken Adams, Boston wanted Olynyk, the mavs drafting and keeping him is the only scenario where we get a lotto pick and don't get Steven. Serge would have gotten a lotto pick without question.

Realistically it was:
Russ/KD/Thabo/Perk/???

Russ/Thabo/KD/Collison/Perk

with Harden off the bench, a vet min guy at backup and whoever you get to replace Serge.

So whoever they get to replace Serge is trivial? He isn't a high pick or good player? This is what I'm talking about. Whoever replaces Serge is either going to be a quality starter or Steven Adams, and you're ignoring them.

They don't take Robes because you don't need yet another SG with both on the roster and you're still stuck with Perk for a while. In what world is Gobert a "likely" scenario when every GM passed on him outside a few and he was almost on the board when Robes was taken the same draft.

Roberson was taken one pick ahead of Gobert. So either
A) we draft Roberson who you say we don't need because we have too many sg's (even though he was a PF in college and is really a SF skillset wise)
B) we take the best big available which at this point is a consensus Gobert.

That's actually the most unlikely scenario, that Presti hits on every minor error he missed on in this inverse situation.

Which minor errors does he need to hit on? He signed a solid SG, drafted a great fit at SG, and drafted Steven. If he hits on those same moves then we're a better team, even if he still blows the Dion deal and dfoes worse than Kanter on the Reggie deal.

[bondom34]

[
I'm outlining a hypothetical where Presti doesn't go brain dead and screw up every single move he makes after trading Serge. You're working under some assumption that he trades Serge for a draft pick and blows it, blows the 27th pick, trades Reggie for a late 2nd, doesn't use the mmle, still trades a first for Dion, and blows last year's pick. You're talking about a roster that literally makes no improvements whatsoever after trading Serge.


In the first round He has drafted Steven and Roberson, Mitch and Huestis, and Cam since the trade. I'd be pretty happy with that level of talent at the 4/5. Cam is the only guy we for sure wouldn't have had a shot at. Steven would most likely still be on the team, and if not the most likely scenario really is Gobert even if you don't believe it.


I've always liked Biyombo, he's a great defender and rim protector, which is all we need out of a center.

Seriously, your entire argument is based around Presti keeping Harden and trading Ibaka while getting nothing in return and not even bothering to use his other assets. Russ/Roberson/Harden/Durant/Steven is even a perfectly viable possibility if he'd traded Serge. And that team is undoubtedly better.

No, you're actually working on the basis of him hitting every single move that he didn't hit on with the Harden trade.

I'm working on the basis of him making similar and realistic moves.

So you trade Serge, have no cap space and instead of getting a guy like A Mo who makes minimal contribution you're signing a high impact starter or backup.

Remember how Morrow was a starter and high impact backup last year? He was pretty good at it too. Signing a similar player to him at the PF/C spot gives you a solid player, I.e. Biyombo or Ed Davis. Those would be equivalent moves.

Instead of drafting at 12 where you have your choice of whoever you're later in the first and taking risks on guys who were way more unknown but still hitting on a great pick.

Are you saying Serge wasn't worth a lotto pick? It's not pick 12 you wouldn't have got, it's Jeremy Lamb and Kevin Martin. Realistic trade, using the rockets for simplicity, would've been Donotas Motiejunas and the pick. Serge still had terrific value, even if it wasn't Harden value.

And there's no way you get Adams in this scenario unless you're trading above the 12 spot, you weren't getting that high.

Raptors wouldn't have taken Adams, Boston wanted Olynyk, the mavs drafting and keeping him is the only scenario where we get a lotto pick and don't get Steven. Serge would have gotten a lotto pick without question.

Realistically it was:
Russ/KD/Thabo/Perk/???

Russ/Thabo/KD/Collison/Perk

with Harden off the bench, a vet min guy at backup and whoever you get to replace Serge.

So whoever they get to replace Serge is trivial? He isn't a high pick or good player? This is what I'm talking about. Whoever replaces Serge is either going to be a quality starter or Steven Adams, and you're ignoring them.

They don't take Robes because you don't need yet another SG with both on the roster and you're still stuck with Perk for a while. In what world is Gobert a "likely" scenario when every GM passed on him outside a few and he was almost on the board when Robes was taken the same draft.

Roberson was taken one pick ahead of Gobert. So either
A) we draft Roberson who you say we don't need because we have too many sg's (even though he was a PF in college and is really a SF skillset wise)
B) we take the best big available which at this point is a consensus Gobert.

That's actually the most unlikely scenario, that Presti hits on every minor error he missed on in this inverse situation.

Which minor errors does he need to hit on? He signed a solid SG, drafted a great fit at SG, and drafted Steven. If he hits on those same moves then we're a better team, even if he still blows the Dion deal and dfoes worse than Kanter on the Reggie deal.

1. No, because we've seen what they have on the wing right now. Similar success to that does not get you a decent frontcourt.

2. But you're assuming that was in a package, and the main part of it was the Raps pick. If they're higher than 12, they may not take Adams either. Lower you may not get him. For all we know you end up with MCW or Len.

3. That starting lineup is way weaker than the one they had.

4. Who'd they replace Harden with? Lamb and Martin. A year of Martin and nothing from Lamb, so that amount of production and that's the high end if you think Harden gets more than Ibaka in trade.

5. Fair, he could have Robes.

6. He's not in the range of Adams to draft! Who's trading what for ibaka 3 years ago? That's the key, you're not getting that return when Serge wasn't as highly regarded and you're certainly not getting 2 picks plus a replacement of any decent ability.

Pretty sure we just fundamentally disagree here, and I think a few others are split on it as well which is cool, but there's no greater chanc they've won anything at this point with Harden.

[Balkman32]

Adams would not be here...
He would be unhappy with his role...

[Kizz Fastfists]

Houston never would have traded for Ibaka. They were only looking to trade for a max type player. Harden was the only one available at the time. If they trade Ibaka, at the time, they might have gotten a Luis Scola type and a few draft picks from a contender. No one would trade a big package to build around Ibaka like Houston did for Harden.

Keep in mind that the pick that turned out to be Adams was from Dallas. Houston didn't expect that to be a lottery pick. How many times in the last 15 years has Dallas missed the playoffs? Think about it this way. What could you get for Russ if you were to shop him today? Russ is a max player who has massive value. What do you get if you are shopping Ibaka? The question at the time was never should Harden or Ibaka be traded it was should Harden or Russ be traded. A lot of people thought Russ would have been easier to replace. I was one of them. Now that we have seen their careers unfold to this point I believe Presti made the right decision. Harden is Carmelo Anthony. He'll put up offensive numbers, but he doesn't really care about championships. Russ is driven and plays hard. Russ might not always make the best decisions, but I can not question his desire to win or his effort.

[bondom34]

Houston never would have traded for Ibaka. They were only looking to trade for a max type player. Harden was the only one available at the time. If they trade Ibaka, at the time, they might have gotten a Luis Scola type and a few draft picks from a contender. No one would trade a big package to build around Ibaka like Houston did for Harden.

Keep in mind that the pick that turned out to be Adams was from Dallas. Houston didn't expect that to be a lottery pick. How many times in the last 15 years has Dallas missed the playoffs? Think about it this way. What could you get for Russ if you were to shop him today? Russ is a max player who has massive value. What do you get if you are shopping Ibaka? The question at the time was never should Harden or Ibaka be traded it was should Harden or Russ be traded. A lot of people thought Russ would have been easier to replace. I was one of them. Now that we have seen their careers unfold to this point I believe Presti made the right decision. Harden is Carmelo Anthony. He'll put up offensive numbers, but he doesn't really care about championships. Russ is driven and plays hard. Russ might not always make the best decisions, but I can not question his desire to win or his effort.

Adams pick was the Raps pick, McGary was Dallas.

[spearsy23]

Houston never would have traded for Ibaka. They were only looking to trade for a max type player. Harden was the only one available at the time. If they trade Ibaka, at the time, they might have gotten a Luis Scola type and a few draft picks from a contender. No one would trade a big package to build around Ibaka like Houston did for Harden.

Ibaka was a 22 year old 9.5/7.5/3.7 on 54% shooting that was contending for dpoy. Harden was a 23 year old 16.8/4.1/3.7 6th man of the year. Harden was worth more but Serge would bring back a guaranteed lotto pick.

Keep in mind that the pick that turned out to be Adams was from Dallas. Houston didn't expect that to be a lottery pick. How many times in the last 15 years has Dallas missed the playoffs?

The pick was from Toronto who picked 5th the year prior. It was actually supposed to be a higher pick.

Think about it this way. What could you get for Russ if you were to shop him today? Russ is a max player who has massive value. What do you get if you are shopping Ibaka? The question at the time was never should Harden or Ibaka be traded it was should Harden or Russ be traded. A lot of people thought Russ would have been easier to replace.

That's some major revisionist history. A small faction believed Russ should be traded, the overwhelming consensus was that you give Harden whatever he asks for and if it comes down to it you amnesty Perkins.

I was one of them. Now that we have seen their careers unfold to this point I believe Presti made the right decision. Harden is Carmelo Anthony. He'll put up offensive numbers, but he doesn't really care about championships. Russ is driven and plays hard. Russ might not always make the best decisions, but I can not question his desire to win or his effort.

were you questioning Harden's desire when he was leading a crap team to the wcf last year? He comes off as an egotistical jackass for sure, but he's a great player and has done more than enough to prove it.


And I really don't view the trade as that much of a mistake, but we clearly have a higher ceiling with Harden + hypothetical return from Ibaka than with Serge + Steven. Could we be worse off if Presti blew everything after that? Yes, but that doesn't change that the ceiling is higher.

[Left*My*Heart]

I'm not questioning what a great talent Harden is, but I personally think OKC is better off without him. I think his career will be marked with personal achievements, head coaches fired and no championships, as long as he is the leader of his team. Ibaka is the better defender and better teammate. You can't dismiss chemistry as major component of winning. Ibaka doesn't take plays off on the defensive end, unlike Harden does time and time again, regardless. Adams is going to be one of the top centers in the league if he isn't already.

The point made that Houston is a crap team and they only have Harden isn't true. They have a very solid roster and just because they greatly underachieved this season, doesn't make them a crap team. Most basketball analysis and even Vegas had them finishing in the top 4 in the West, with even a few picking them to win the West. Great leaders make their teams better and don't make them dysfunctional.

I wonder how Harden would be dealing with things today had he remained in OKC? Surely he wouldn't be happy playing third fiddle behind Durant and Wesbrook. Would his prima donna ego emerge in OKC or would be okay coming off the bench? Rumor has it he had McHale fired, would he be a disruptive force in the locker room? How would Westbrook and Durant feel with him not playing defense, would that cause a rift? The Harden of today would be a terrible fit on OKC, compared to not having Adams or Ibaka on the team.

The Thunder took the Warriors to 7 games in the Western conference finals and the idea that Harden would have sealed the deal baffles me. What made OKC so tough on the Warriors was their length and athleticism with Adams and Ibaka playing major roles there. Maybe a stop there and a bucket made there and buying into Donovan's game plan might have been the answer. Harden surely wasn't going to replace what Adams and Ibaka brought every game.

Would Durant even consider re-signing with OKC, if they had Harden and they couldn't get past the Spurs? Ibaka and Adams played huge roles in OKC's upset of the Spurs and I don't think they beat the Spurs being just trying to outscore them.