OKC Thunder 2023-24 Regular Season Discussion

shakes0 · Post #2521 » by **shakes0** » Wed Apr 3, 2024 1:22 pm

As the playoffs get closer what are your expectations for the post season? I think we've all noticed the late season struggles by Chet as well as the injury issues affecting SGA's play as of late. Personally, I would be happy just getting out of the first round. And I wouldn't be surprised or too upset if they fail to do that even as a top seed.

The play in will be loaded with veteran teams. There won't be an easy matchup in that 1v8 and 2v7 matchups.

That game last week vs Milwaukee was eye opening. Seemed like Milwaukee took it up a notch in terms of physicality and OKC couldn't handle it. That could be a precursor to the playoffs and the more physical game. Coupled with SGA's health and Chet's fatigue, I don't have high expectations for the playoffs.

Just happy the team will be there and hoping for a first round series win, but really just hoping for some good experience to be gained by everyone on the team.

Clav · Post #2522 » by **Clav** » Wed Apr 3, 2024 8:27 pm

shakes0 wrote:As the playoffs get closer what are your expectations for the post season? I think we've all noticed the late season struggles by Chet as well as the injury issues affecting SGA's play as of late. Personally, I would be happy just getting out of the first round. And I wouldn't be surprised or too upset if they fail to do that even as a top seed.

The play in will be loaded with veteran teams. There won't be an easy matchup in that 1v8 and 2v7 matchups.

That game last week vs Milwaukee was eye opening. Seemed like Milwaukee took it up a notch in terms of physicality and OKC couldn't handle it. That could be a precursor to the playoffs and the more physical game. Coupled with SGA's health and Chet's fatigue, I don't have high expectations for the playoffs.

Just happy the team will be there and hoping for a first round series win, but really just hoping for some good experience to be gained by everyone on the team.

Matchup wise, there's no "easy" option in the WC. However I do think I would prefer to play the Suns Pels or Kings first if at all possible. Suns are streaky and cannot play great defense, they live and die by the shots their stars make. We have animosity towards Durant if he plays in OKC so the games will be feisty. I don't see the Suns stopping OKC's constant rim pressure on PHX in a series to win.
My prediction R1? OKC 4-1 PHX

Kings are a bit banged up, losing Monk and Huerter for the season takes a big chunk from their bench. The starters will have to play insane minutes to carry the team and of those, Sabonis and Fox are the biggest issues for OKC, especially Sabonis who used to play for OKC (1 season). Murray is a very good shooter and coming into his own as a player but he's got a lot of pressure on him this year and I feel like Kings are still one piece away. Their size in the post and home crowd are a bonus, I see them getting at least 2 games.
My prediction R1? OKC 4-2 SAC

Pelicans are a mixed bag of young and older players. Some have barely scratched the surface of Playoff basketball, and others have been there. McCollum may stabilise the team somewhat, and Ingram if back from his injury can win a game. Zion, too, can probably win a game. This team has a stable of shooters and good pieces on the bench that can make an impact. The Pels issue is they have variance in their defense and ability to deal with the PG position. There's a big gap between NOLA's PG production and other PO teams in the west. For NOLA to beat OKC, they need to use Jones/Ingram/MurphyIII/Zion/JV and go super-sized and try to lock down OKC's drives and gobble rebounds up. If NOLA is using Alvarado or Daniels for some reason, they have to hope SGA plays poorly.
My prediction R1? OKC 4-3 NOLA

Dallas looks like they have taken it to the next level. Luka seems primed to make noise and is dangerous.... Kyrie seems to be a bit under the radar. Lively and THJ are solid pieces, and DAL has Gafford who is helping them with ez points inside. I don't like OKCs chances vs the Mavs at all due to "star player" gravitas of Luka. I just feel like...this could be the year Luka's PO work comes to fruition and they make it to the WCF or better.
My prediction R1? OKC 2-4 DAL

LA (and AD's post play) are not a great matchup plus playoff LeBron can single handledly win games, rather see them play DEN in rd1. However, if LA and OKC match up this year I see it being a very competitive series hinged on how much production OKC and LA get in the paint. Both teams drive the ball a lot and AD/LeBron are savvy veterans, great players in their own right, they can survive some of the dramatic moments better than a pretty green OKC squad in clutch moments. I try not to be a basketball conspiracist but the foul calls LA gets the benefit of are pretty well documented on this site, it could play a major factor in this series.
My prediction R1? OKC 3-4 LAL

I don't think OKC can beat DEN -full stop-, and can only beat MIN if they self destruct in TWolves fashion (I'm a Twolves fan too so I know how shaky they can be in the POs -historically-). This TWolves team has some different energy than past teams so I wouldn't hold the past against them. If KAT returns to even 80% of himself they are still very dangerous and a strong defensive team. As play slows down in the POs, that will benefit Minnesota, as long as the Wolves offense doesn't completely dry up.
These are R2 matchups if anything, or WCF
My predictions for both series at this point ? OKC 4-3 MIN & OKC 1-4 DEN

Clips are an exact definition of a dark horse. They have all the pieces to be dangerous, but they also have creeping doubt with injuries (Kawhi right now) and without him they are mortal. With him, they can win it all. They are more than likely a 2nd round matchup for the Thunder so for now, if we happen to play them in R2, this is my call OKC 4-2. If Kawhi's knee injury isn't bad and he plays great OKC 1-4 LAC.

RingoKid · Post #2523 » by **RingoKid** » Thu Apr 4, 2024 7:10 am

Thunder get bounced in the first round no matter who they play is my prediction.

SuGA can't carry the team, especiallly when not 100% and Chet ain't ready for the physicality in his rookie year. Giddey and LuDo will play to their strengths and J-dub will make some noise to win a game or two, but the bench can't be trusted to do anything.

It'll be a great learning curve and show up the holes in the 'playoff' roster for Presti to plug.

Next season its all in and championship or bust!

cjmcallist · Post #2524 » by **cjmcallist** » Thu Apr 4, 2024 3:31 pm

I expect a first round win, and second round depends on matchup.

We’ve underrated this team all year but they are better than every team not named the Nuggets. Of course they can underperform, but thats not the expectation.

RingoKid · Post #2525 » by **RingoKid** » Thu Apr 4, 2024 10:50 pm

cjmcallist wrote:I expect a first round win, and second round depends on matchup.

We’ve underrated this team all year but they are better than every team not named the Nuggets. Of course they can underperform, but thats not the expectation.

In any single game OKC are a 50/50 bet.

Over 7 games against one team I'd place them more 80/20 to lose.

shakes0 · Post #2526 » by **shakes0** » Fri Apr 5, 2024 3:14 pm

RingoKid wrote:
cjmcallist wrote:I expect a first round win, and second round depends on matchup.

We’ve underrated this team all year but they are better than every team not named the Nuggets. Of course they can underperform, but thats not the expectation.

In any single game OKC are a 50/50 bet.

Over 7 games against one team I'd place them more 80/20 to lose.

If I had internet skills this is where I would insert the one of Russel Crowe in The Beautiful Mind staring at the white board with all the equations.

RingoKid · Post #2527 » by **RingoKid** » Sun Apr 7, 2024 5:22 am

The Pelz or Suns are the best chance of OKC getting to the 2nd round but can you imagine what Valanciunas or Nurkic will do to Chet over 7 games ?

Chet's gonna need abuse counseling after Jonas or Nurk have had their way with him!

Mr Thunder Nick · Post #2528 » by **Mr Thunder Nick** » Sun Apr 7, 2024 7:59 am

At the moment I would say SAC or NOP could be a winning series. With PHX I have my doubts . LAL with their experience would be awful. Even GSW will be hard (same reason...experience) DAL with the addition of Gafford are too strong.

Mr Thunder Nick · Post #2529 » by **Mr Thunder Nick** » Sun Apr 7, 2024 8:00 am

First, we have to see if we are healthy. We only have a chance with a complete team.

Post #2530 » by **Dadouv47** » Sun Apr 7, 2024 10:51 am

I'm really worried about Shai. He hard time coming back from injuries in the past even if those were tanking seasons. His game is not based on athleticism but he moves so much that he needs to be healthy to be effective. That being said we don't know how serious his injury is and how our staff is handling it so time will tell.

In a vacuum if healthy I think we would be favored against Sac/Pels/Suns and underdogs against Dallas and Lakers. I just don't like the matchups against LAL and Dallas but the west is so balanced that it's wide open against any team not named Denver IMO

Post #2531 » by **Dadouv47** » Sun Apr 7, 2024 11:16 am

RingoKid wrote:The Pelz or Suns are the best chance of OKC getting to the 2nd round but can you imagine what Valanciunas or Nurkic will do to Chet over 7 games ?

Chet's gonna need abuse counseling after Jonas or Nurk have had their way with him!

Pels are good and can beat us but the last time we played them they had to bench Valanciunas to start the second half because Chet and our team was destroying him.

RingoKid · Post #2532 » by **RingoKid** » Sun Apr 7, 2024 9:47 pm

Dadouv47 wrote:
RingoKid wrote:The Pelz or Suns are the best chance of OKC getting to the 2nd round but can you imagine what Valanciunas or Nurkic will do to Chet over 7 games ?

Chet's gonna need abuse counseling after Jonas or Nurk have had their way with him!

Pels are good and can beat us but the last time we played them they had to bench Valanciunas to start the second half because Chet and our team was destroying him.

Up to 7 games of Jonas beating up on Chet while the refs swallow their playoff whistles is gonna be a wake up call.

Post #2533 » by **Dadouv47** » Mon Apr 8, 2024 12:26 am

Wiggins saved basketball

Post #2534 » by **Dadouv47** » Mon Apr 8, 2024 12:27 am

Can't like the situation we are in going into the playoffs...Jdub is banged up, Chet is playing way too much IMO and I have no clue how serious Shai injury is. A week of rest because of the play in tournament is gonna be good for us but we need at least one very solid game from Shai to end the regular season.

kdthunderup · Post #2535 » by **kdthunderup** » Mon Apr 8, 2024 2:13 am

Dadouv47 wrote:I'm really worried about Shai. He hard time coming back from injuries in the past even if those were tanking seasons. His game is not based on athleticism but he moves so much that he needs to be healthy to be effective. That being said we don't know how serious his injury is and how our staff is handling it so time will tell.

In a vacuum if healthy I think we would be favored against Sac/Pels/Suns and underdogs against Dallas and Lakers. I just don't like the matchups against LAL and Dallas but the west is so balanced that it's wide open against any team not named Denver IMO

You do hope that the team is just wrapping up Shai and JDub in cotton wool for the post season. Shai still looked off when he returned against the Knicks and he had close to a week off by that point.

I wonder if it’s just a fatigue thing or something that we find out later on requires surgery in the off season.

Bremzi · Post #2536 » by **Bremzi** » Mon Apr 8, 2024 11:42 am

SGA has quadriceps contusion probably. He had it bumped and tried to play through it and perhaps (re)aggravated it. If there was anything to do surgically, he wouldnt of been able to play in the latter games. It's pretty much a given that OKC has the luxury of resting guys down the stretch.

I'd say that they want that #3 slot and they won't be overtaken by the Clippers anyway. At #3, based on current projections, they don't meet Dallas/GS/Lakers, i.e. very likely either Kings/Suns/Pelicans. That's probably the preferable 1st round matchup. As OKC, I'd avoid Lakers like the plague and they definitely do with that #3 spot.

Post #2537 » by **ThunderBolt** » Mon Apr 8, 2024 12:56 pm

I'm just not worried about this. These aren't major injuries. I expect us to get healthy by the playoffs. If Chet rolls his ankle before the playoffs I'll be more concerned.

Clav · Post #2538 » by **Clav** » Mon Apr 8, 2024 6:15 pm

Just FYI everyone here, the OKC Blue made it to the GL Finals and begin the 3-game series vs Maine Celtics tomorrow.

Post #2539 » by **Dadouv47** » Mon Apr 8, 2024 10:43 pm

Read on Twitter

Post #2540 » by **Dadouv47** » Mon Apr 8, 2024 11:52 pm

4 regular season games for Shai before the POs is pretty good if he's healthy. Hope JDub can come back too.

I wonder how Giddey will play with Shai/JDub back but I wouldn't be surprised if he's gonna struggle again even if he's likely a bit more confident about his game. I think a Shai/Giddey duo can coexist but JDub changes the all dynamic (which is a good problem to have for us but bad for Giddey's future on our team)