OKC Thunder 2023-24 Regular Season Discussion

[Bremzi]

Glad not playing the Lakers. We don't match really well against the Kings though and the Pels were very solid yesterday...need to see if Zion is injured or not.

OKC will have a clear advantage in any 1st round matchup. Pelicans have an injured Zion - if he injured his hamstring, then he is done for the play-in and the first round, unless the Pelicans are willing to risk his ACL on non-correctly functioning posterior leg chain.

Kings are also very limited with injuries to Huerter and Malik Monk in the first round. Apart from Fox, Sabonis and Murray, they have Barnes and a bunch of random role players. OKC would have a clear advantage playing up-tempo with their depth. I think the last 2 games in the regular season vs Kings also demonstrated that OKC can beat them.

[Dadouv47]

Glad not playing the Lakers. We don't match really well against the Kings though and the Pels were very solid yesterday...need to see if Zion is injured or not.

OKC will have a clear advantage in any 1st round matchup. Pelicans have an injured Zion - if he injured his hamstring, then he is done for the play-in and the first round, unless the Pelicans are willing to risk his ACL on non-correctly functioning posterior leg chain.

Kings are also very limited with injuries to Huerter and Malik Monk in the first round. Apart from Fox, Sabonis and Murray, they have Barnes and a bunch of random role players. OKC would have a clear advantage playing up-tempo with their depth. I think the last 2 games in the regular season vs Kings also demonstrated that OKC can beat them.

Not beating the Kings would be pretty bad considering they have several injuries. That being said, they are matching up pretty well against us and performing pretty well lately. But sure if we play good basketball, we should win that series.

[Dadouv47]

Funny that a lot of NBA fans think we are such an easy first round match up. I hope our players can prove them wrong. I have a 2-3 teams in the West that I think could be better than us in the postseason but I'm surprised to read people having us as underdogs against Kings/Pels/Warriors

[Kizz Fastfists]

Funny that a lot of NBA fans think we are such an easy first round match up. I hope our players can prove them wrong. I have a 2-3 teams in the West that I think could be better than us in the postseason but I'm surprised to read people having us as underdogs against Kings/Pels/Warriors

I don't understand NOLA as a tough matchup. They are my ideal first round matchup and the most likely to be swept by OKC. With Zion injured they probably lose to the Kings today. GS would have been an easy matchup, 5 games at most. Sacramento is the toughest of the three, but OKC should handle them in 5-6 games. Just going positionally with the starting lineups SGA>Fox, Dort=Eliis, Giddey=Barnes, JDub>Murray and Chet=Sabonis. You can argue Chet over Sabonis, but at this point I think they are about equal. Chet will be better, but I don't believe you can definitively say he is better today. OKC has the much better bench with Joe, Cason and Jaylin compared to Mitchell, Lyons and Len. If Huerter and Monk were healthy I'd have it as a 6-7 game series. As it stands OKC should beat the Kings in 5 games.

If OKC loses in the first round this team has some significant issues either with the coaching or the roster that will need to be addressed in the off-season. I have Denver as more likely to lose in the first round than OKC, but both have 99%+ chance of advancing. If you want to look ahead, I would rather play LAC in the 2nd round than Dallas. Dallas presents some matchup issues and will be a very tough opponent. OKC lost one game to LAC this year where SGA and Chet both had bad games. The other two games OKC won by 19 and 22 points. The one time Dallas and OKC played healthy Dallas blew out OKC. OKC won two other games one with Kyrie out and the other with Luka out. The last game of the season is irrelevant as Dallas sat everyone. I could see Dallas beating OKC in 5 and if that were to happen it would hopefully get Presti to rethink his roster composition.

[Dadouv47]

Funny that a lot of NBA fans think we are such an easy first round match up. I hope our players can prove them wrong. I have a 2-3 teams in the West that I think could be better than us in the postseason but I'm surprised to read people having us as underdogs against Kings/Pels/Warriors

I don't understand NOLA as a tough matchup. They are my ideal first round matchup and the most likely to be swept by OKC. With Zion injured they probably lose to the Kings today. GS would have been an easy matchup, 5 games at most. Sacramento is the toughest of the three, but OKC should handle them in 5-6 games. Just going positionally with the starting lineups SGA>Fox, Dort=Eliis, Giddey=Barnes, JDub>Murray and Chet=Sabonis. You can argue Chet over Sabonis, but at this point I think they are about equal. Chet will be better, but I don't believe you can definitively say he is better today. OKC has the much better bench with Joe, Cason and Jaylin compared to Mitchell, Lyons and Len. If Huerter and Monk were healthy I'd have it as a 6-7 game series. As it stands OKC should beat the Kings in 5 games.

If OKC loses in the first round this team has some significant issues either with the coaching or the roster that will need to be addressed in the off-season. I have Denver as more likely to lose in the first round than OKC, but both have 99%+ chance of advancing. If you want to look ahead, I would rather play LAC in the 2nd round than Dallas. Dallas presents some matchup issues and will be a very tough opponent. OKC lost one game to LAC this year where SGA and Chet both had bad games. The other two games OKC won by 19 and 22 points. The one time Dallas and OKC played healthy Dallas blew out OKC. OKC won two other games one with Kyrie out and the other with Luka out. The last game of the season is irrelevant as Dallas sat everyone. I could see Dallas beating OKC in 5 and if that were to happen it would hopefully get Presti to rethink his roster composition.

that's a crazy number. There's more than 1% Shai/JDub gets reinjured (or Chet) so not even taking into account NOLA's and Kings potential.

Zion if healthy is a problem, Herb Jones is one of the best defenders in the NBA, Ingram is good if healthy (he just came back). They are a very good defensive team against 3pts if I'm not mistaken and Herb Jones can limit some SGA impact.

I obviously think we are favored in any of those match ups but not by such a big margin (70/30 looks optimistic enough and wonder what the vegas line is gonna be)

Agree about Dallas. Doncic/Irving is a big problem and they improved a lot at the deadline with Gafford/PJ Washington.

[slick_watts]

99%+ chance of advancing lol.

[Big nick]

I think dallas will beat us they got so much better at the deadline.

[shakes0]

Funny that a lot of NBA fans think we are such an easy first round match up. I hope our players can prove them wrong. I have a 2-3 teams in the West that I think could be better than us in the postseason but I'm surprised to read people having us as underdogs against Kings/Pels/Warriors

I don't understand NOLA as a tough matchup. They are my ideal first round matchup and the most likely to be swept by OKC. With Zion injured they probably lose to the Kings today. GS would have been an easy matchup, 5 games at most. Sacramento is the toughest of the three, but OKC should handle them in 5-6 games. Just going positionally with the starting lineups SGA>Fox, Dort=Eliis, Giddey=Barnes, JDub>Murray and Chet=Sabonis. You can argue Chet over Sabonis, but at this point I think they are about equal. Chet will be better, but I don't believe you can definitively say he is better today. OKC has the much better bench with Joe, Cason and Jaylin compared to Mitchell, Lyons and Len. If Huerter and Monk were healthy I'd have it as a 6-7 game series. As it stands OKC should beat the Kings in 5 games.

If OKC loses in the first round this team has some significant issues either with the coaching or the roster that will need to be addressed in the off-season. I have Denver as more likely to lose in the first round than OKC, but both have 99%+ chance of advancing. If you want to look ahead, I would rather play LAC in the 2nd round than Dallas. Dallas presents some matchup issues and will be a very tough opponent. OKC lost one game to LAC this year where SGA and Chet both had bad games. The other two games OKC won by 19 and 22 points. The one time Dallas and OKC played healthy Dallas blew out OKC. OKC won two other games one with Kyrie out and the other with Luka out. The last game of the season is irrelevant as Dallas sat everyone. I could see Dallas beating OKC in 5 and if that were to happen it would hopefully get Presti to rethink his roster composition.

this is a wild take all around.

As to the bolded, couldn't disagree more. If they lose it could be that they just need valuable playoff experience and growth, nothing more. You're reading way too much and giving way too much credit to OKC's regular season success.

[Dadouv47]

Read on Twitter

well now better to face the Pels obviously...I guess we would have a 99.9% odds.

[Bremzi]

If OKC advances to the 2nd round, I think Mavericks will be there. Kawhi has been having knee swelling the past few weeks and can’t even practice fully yet. Knowing about knee issues and his previous surgeries, I wouldn’t be surprised to later hear he has a meniscus tear they are covering and are hoping to improve. Either way, that doesn’t sound like he’ll be able to play or be at his best. If any of that happens, I don’t see how Clippers progress over Mavericks.

Regarding Dallas Mavs - who have been like 16-2 the last 18 games before facing OKC - you gotta acknowledge OKC is 3-1 in season series against them. OKC even won a game where Mavs made a 30-0 4th q comeback and Mavs still lost in the last few minutes.

Also, the one time they blew OKC out, they had the best game of the season and the best quarter in franchise history (that 1st quarter with significant lead). It was also one of the early afternoon games that OKC was notoriously bad in this year (for instance, one of those was a 30+ loss vs Nuggets).

I wouldn’t look too much into it. We saw how OKC whooped their bench for 40+ at halftime on weekend. I don’t see sustainable insane efficiency from Mavs the whole series. They don’t have any bigs that could bully Chet or otherwise overpower OKC on the glass. For those reasons I fear only Denver and Lakers and it’s great they are h2h in the first round. We also have to remember OKC is gonna have home court advantage and they were really really good at home this year. OKC has also managed to bounce back after losses pretty much against anyone this year except the Lakers. Even vs Dallas I’d give a slight edge to OKC. H2h wise Doncic=SGA, Irving=JDub, Chet>Gafford, Dort=Green/DJJ, Giddey<PJ Washington. You might swap some signs tadly in one way or another but it’s a pretty even matchup. I’d love to see SGA go h2h against Luka also for the MVP stuff evaluation for the future.

[slick_watts]

if the thunder play the mavs in the playoffs they need a quick hook on josh giddey. mavs just put luka on him and let luka do the paint dance. he gets to rest on defense while acting as a paint deterrent. dallas is not a good defensive team but this strategy is doable for them when we have giddey and dort on the floor together. the clippers don't play this style. other teams hide players on giddey but usually bigs. dallas does it the best.

[shakes0]

what's all this second round talk? That's bad juju. Knock it off lol.

[Bremzi]

I’d add that putting Cason in for Giddey vs Dallas can solve some offensive spacing issues and provide OKC with a pretty great defensive lineup. Irving and Luka aren’t good defensive guards, while Cason/Dort/SGA are, JDub and Chet are very solid as well. I just don’t think Dallas can guard as effectively as OKC can.

But yeah, let’s hope that OKC gets past first round first.

[Kizz Fastfists]

what's all this second round talk? That's bad juju. Knock it off lol.

Bad juju? I make my living playing a competitive game and occasionally carry a voodoo doll in my shirt pocket watching as a joke, but to seriously embrace the superstition says you have no foundation in logic and reasoning. Stop making excuses for why the best team shouldn't win. Lack of experience? That is loser garbage. Bad juju? That is just nonsense that defies reality. What else you got? You going to pick the winner based on which owner has the best looking wife or mistress? That would make as much sense as the rest of your nonsense.

[shakes0]

what's all this second round talk? That's bad juju. Knock it off lol.

Bad juju? I make my living playing a competitive game and occasionally carry a voodoo doll in my shirt pocket watching as a joke, but to seriously embrace the superstition says you have no foundation in logic and reasoning. Stop making excuses for why the best team shouldn't win. Lack of experience? That is loser garbage. Bad juju? That is just nonsense that defies reality. What else you got? You going to pick the winner based on which owner has the best looking wife or mistress? That would make as much sense as the rest of your nonsense.

You must be a lot of fun at parties.


I played hockey for 50 years, superstition is a way of life.

[Clav]

A lot of athletes are very superstitious. They have routines, changing those can throw them off.

I'm sure some are more logical, or don't buy into it.... but from those I have met most feel the need to follow their rituals or risk that things are off. For example, baseball players are generally very superstitious and rigorous about these things. Use the same chew, same cleats, don't clean the helmet, gotta have seeds, don't say certain things at certain times (like no hitter or perfect game). There' so much silly things that they do that likely has no tether to reality, but in their minds it does...

[Dadouv47]

what's all this second round talk? That's bad juju. Knock it off lol.

Bad juju? I make my living playing a competitive[[b]/b] game and occasionally carry a voodoo doll in my shirt pocket watching as a joke, but to seriously embrace the superstition says you have no foundation in logic and reasoning. Stop making excuses for why the best team shouldn't win. Lack of experience? That is loser garbage. Bad juju? That is just nonsense that defies reality. What else you got? You going to pick the winner based on which owner has the best looking wife or mistress? That would make as much sense as the rest of your nonsense.

I don't know which game u play but for example profissional poker players are very superstitious (which does not prevent them from taking the good decisions on a statistical point of view). Same for some athletes like Clav said...it's their way to stay focus and deal with their emotions

[shakes0]

what's all this second round talk? That's bad juju. Knock it off lol.

Bad juju? I make my living playing a competitive[[b]/b] game and occasionally carry a voodoo doll in my shirt pocket watching as a joke, but to seriously embrace the superstition says you have no foundation in logic and reasoning. Stop making excuses for why the best team shouldn't win. Lack of experience? That is loser garbage. Bad juju? That is just nonsense that defies reality. What else you got? You going to pick the winner based on which owner has the best looking wife or mistress? That would make as much sense as the rest of your nonsense.

I don't know which game u play but for example profissional poker players are very superstitious (which does not prevent them from taking the good decisions on a statistical point of view). Same for some athletes like Clav said...it's their way to stay focus and deal with their emotions

leave him alone, he's just mad and rebelling because a billy goat cursed his crappy baseball team and caused them to be losers for 100 years. I can see where someone with that level of PTSD would want to rebel against superstitions.

[slick_watts]

I make my living playing a competitive game

this tracks.

[Clav]

Bad juju? I make my living playing a competitive[[b]/b] game and occasionally carry a voodoo doll in my shirt pocket watching as a joke, but to seriously embrace the superstition says you have no foundation in logic and reasoning. Stop making excuses for why the best team shouldn't win. Lack of experience? That is loser garbage. Bad juju? That is just nonsense that defies reality. What else you got? You going to pick the winner based on which owner has the best looking wife or mistress? That would make as much sense as the rest of your nonsense.

I don't know which game u play but for example profissional poker players are very superstitious (which does not prevent them from taking the good decisions on a statistical point of view). Same for some athletes like Clav said...it's their way to stay focus and deal with their emotions

leave him alone, he's just mad and rebelling because a billy goat cursed his crappy baseball team and caused them to be losers for 100 years. I can see where someone with that level of PTSD would want to rebel against superstitions.

At least the cubbies got one now! It took Em long enough.