ATNE Tournament, Round 1: 6.Owly v. 11. Skyhook

[JeepCSC]

All-Time Non-Elite Tournament. Write-ups to follow.

[Owly]

Team Drafts
Team Seed Pick Team Seed Pick
owly 6 13 SkyHookFTW 11 1
Chris Paul 1 13 Moses Malone 1 1
Karl Malone 2 20 Kevin McHale 2 32
Grant Hill 3 45 Isiah Thomas 3 33
Vince Carter 4 52 James Harden 4 64
Bob Lanier 5 77 Bobby Jones 5 65
Marques Johnson 6 84 Alex English 6 96
Larry Nance 7 109 Jack Sikma 7 97
Eddie Jones 8 116 Billy Cunningham 8 128
Shawn Kemp 9 141 Hal Greer 9 129
Terrell Brandon 10 148 Billy Cunningham 10 160
Larry Bird 11 173 Calvin Murphy 11 161

General/for seeding writeups
6

owly
Bob Lanier
Karl Malone
Grant Hill
Vince Carter
Chris Paul

Shawn Kemp
Larry Nance
Marques Johnson
Eddie Jones
Terrell Brandon

Coach: Larry Bird

Spoiler:

Big picture vision/priorities for the team in no particular order (some overlap, I’ll tend to highlight the first 3 or 4 because the rest are boxscore obvious and/or already covered)

- Spacing: Can the frontline hit from 15-20 feet out? Can the guards hit the three? Then we can pull your defensive anchors out of the post, play mismatches (because no one “needs” to be in the post) and punish double teams.

- Passing: Of course we can only punish double teams if our players can pass well (see also avoiding turnovers-errors). I’ve sought to find players that are capable and willing passers. This also helps keep everyone happy.

- Defense: I didn’t necessarily target full on defensive anchors, but looked for each man to be able to guard his man at least adequately, and for the most part well, and there’s enough flexibility-versatility that we’re fine on switches, then that mitigates a bit of the need for “anchor” help defenders, though I’ve hardly abandoned shot blocking and charge taking helps here too.

- Low mistakes: I don’t want players who turn the ball over a lot, miss a lot, or amass cheap fouls. The benefits are obvious but extra possessions also means extra shots, which can’t be bad for morale.

- The skills requisite to play off the ball: Now this isn’t necessarily, are they are renowned off the ball player, because for the Jazz it made a lot of sense to have the ball in Karl Malone’s hands quite often. But do they have a good BBIQ, are they athletic/agile, do they set good screens.

- Two way: Sort of implicit in the above, but 1 way players will tend to compromise spacing and leave you playing 4 on 5 or offer an attack point to consistently scramble your defense. As such I sought players at least average on both ends.

There’s only one player with whom I think really misses the mark on my principles (obviously sometimes guys are only going to be average-ish). Kemp picks up cheap fouls and turns the ball over a lot without a great deal of passing. At that point looking at bigs I knew I’d have to accept below average in one of these areas (Brad Miller for instance would be in defense, ditto Daugherty had I went for him earlier, there are some undrafted bigs that didn’t meet all the criteria and would have been too small to play alongside Nance), still Kemp fits with spacing, offers and agile and versatile defender, can play off the ball (including elite offensive rebounding, court running and of course the alley oops) and play both ends. At the point in the draft he was taken, Kemp hit enough (most) of my requisites and represented excellent talent.

Okay to the team

Bob Lanier
74-76
His shooting - Lanier will stretch the floor and pull rival pivots out of the post. He’s a 79% FT shooter over the span selected, and it’s not difficult to find allusion to him a premier big man shooter, it’s in every bio but for instance (from the time) ...

[of Jim Chones] in fact he has a shooting range that comes close to Bob McAdoo’s and Bob Lanier’s

Bob Lanier is probably the best outside shooting center in the NBA

His defense – For the spell in question Lanier was a defensive anchor, leading the league in defensive rating in ’74.
Reviews on D

Lanier is the big difference. He played only when in the mood before last season [i.e. before 73-74 campaign]. He concentrated more on stopping other teams from penetrating and fourth in blocked shots with 247.

[individual bio]
Called "Moses" by his teammates ... For leading them out of the wilderness ...... trimmer last season ...... Defense was his biggest improvement

Depending on who's in there, the Pistons can make you work. When one of the "whos" is either Trapp or Howard Porter, the opponents can relax a bit. But Rowe, Ford, Mengelt, Kevin Porter, Money and Lanier will get down and play some defense. Lanier, in fact often surprises people by jumping out to pick up guards or forwards. He also clogs the middle nicely.
[individual bio]
Has become a very intimidating defensive player who, like Dave Cowens, is not afraid to switch out on unsuspecting forwards and guards.

As I recall, in ’73 he lost some weight, worked out with Russell and came back a defensive force.

His passing – A 17.5 assist percentage for the span selected indicates a good/willing passer in a big. Suffice it to say Lanier can play the high or low post and create for others.

My massive pro-Lanier arguments from the top 100 thread below, not all absolutely pertinent (comparisons to Elvin Hayes, weird PER and WS/48 metrics but per minute and with a high bar called Wins Above Good).

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1359006&p=41877452#p41877639
TL;DR His numbers aren’t too far off those of a prime Jabbar during this span (and without McAdoo’s bad non-boxscore D), his team clearly missed him in ’76, ’77 and ’78 when he was out, he was an agile and effective defender. Oh and there’s a lot of focus on D here, but Lanier could pummel players down in the post on offense too.

Karl Malone
96-98
Passing – 22 assist percentage, superb for a big man, and with low turnovers for a player with such a large shot creation (both for self and others, and with a consistent double team burden).
Floor spacing – Malone jacked up his fg% in 97 and 98 despite going to his midrange fadeaway more often.
Defense – Not a shotblocker but a well regarded post defender agile enough to cover pick and rolls well and defend out on perimeter where necessary (see below and accolades).
As a treat here’s Karl Malone’s profile from after the ’96 campaign (the worst of the three selected)

Season Summary
The amazing Malone keeps on trucking, maintaining his remarkable pace – a level of consistent productivity that is unmatched by any active NBA player ... Some significant numbers: Scored 25 or more points for the ninth consecutive year (25.7, 4th in the league)... Averaged 9.9 rebounds; he’s never accumulated less than 8.9 – in his rookie year... Handed out a career-best 4.2 assists... Shot 51.9%, the ninth time he’s been over the 50% mark in an 11-year career... And by season’s end, this 33-year old had his consecutive game streak extend to 385 – registering double figures in every one of those games.
His Game
Long considered strictly a power player— and he’s firmly established as one of the league’s premier post-up threats – in recent years, Malone has taken his game outside, even to the three-point line (an impressive 40% last year)... Gets lots of jumpers off the pick-and-pop, which he executes as well as any forward in the league... And from the top of the key, he loves to drive, invariably to his right... Still, his game is more inside-out than vice-versa... Double-teamed and even triple teamed every night (an on virtually every possession), he nevertheless manages to slice through the traps, absorb the contact, and make the shot, often getting fouled in the process... Alternatively, he’ll beat the 2-team with his expert passes to spotted-up jump shooters or diving cutters; he’s a much underrated passer (registered his first triple double last year 27 points, 15 rebounds, and 10 assists vs. the Clippers)... Defensively, he often doesn’t get his due... Has perfected the strip on-the-way-up (averaged 1.7 steals) and is also an excellent post defender, willing to bang and capable of moving his feet... He also does a nice job of defending the pick-and-roll, diligently hedging and even willing to chase the little guys when they try to turn the corner... About the only criticism you can make of Malone’s game is an obvious one: in the post-season, he couldn’t make a foul shot, disconnecting on a hard-to-explain 57.4%, compared to 72.3% in the regular season (suggestion: try the underhand method. Co-author Baryy, the second greatest foul-shooter in NBA history and a master of the technique, always available for lessons).
His Attitude
By his sheer will to win, the emotional leader of the Jazz... Takes a beating every night (and gives one too), produces big numbers more regularly than anybody, but in 11 years has missed four, count ‘em, four games... In a word: phenomenal.
Needs to Work On
Foul shooting
Where he’s Headed
The Hall of Fame in the long term and for the near term, same old same old: another 25-(points-and-10(rebounds) year.
In a Nutshell
If there’s any justice in the world, he and his long-time running mate, John Stockton, will get at least one crack at the NBA title before they retire... Nobody is more deserving.

TL;DR I didn't just get a great scorer, I got a top notch passer, a good pick and pop shooter, a gritty post defender and mobile pick and roll coverer.

Grant Hill
97-99
Passing – Obvious. Point forward. Lower-middle class man’s LeBron.
Defense – Elite. Made his living primarily off his D after injuries ravaged his body. Here’s a review on his D after the ’96 campaign. He got even better the next year.

But beyond his offense, what makes Hill special, a quality that also distinguishes two players he’s often compared to – Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen – is that he plays both ends: He’s a great defender... His defensive resume includes his versatility (can cover 1s, 2s, 3s and even 4s), ability to play the passing lanes (1.3 steals), size (he’s hard to shoot over), and his willingness to front the post (lots of deflections)

Spacing/Shooting: A relative weakness, though his explosive first step means both that he often doesn’t need it and guarantees him decent airspace.

Vince Carter
Spacing/Shooting- A 40% 3 point shooter during the span selected with a fair proportion of those shots off the bounce with aggressive defensive coverage.
Passing - 3.9apg, 19.9 assist percentage and just 8.9 turnover percentage (albeit that is helped by a high usage, but the point is low mistakes, high creation)
Defense – Strong and (of course) a superb leaper, and solid footwork though lacking elite lateral mobility, my impression of Vince’s D for the span selected is roughly average, perhaps slightly above. The main point here is his capacity for upside when he isn’t being asked to carry quite such a heavy load (He “came into the league playing solid defense, a definite rarity” [Lindy’s 99-00 preview) and has been solid at the end of his career, see for instance: http://grantland.com/features/the-case- ... ing-right/ so I figure he can be better at his peak when he can combine energy/focus, athleticism and a little experience).

Chris Paul
08-? (is ‘10 so injured as to require use of ‘11? Sufficiently injured to allow it? I’ll use 08-10 numbers now just because it’s easiest, 11 would be preferable because his D is back at elite levels, though it makes his bkb-ref numbers harder to calculate and very slightly hurts those numbers because it’s weighing a full season at not quite 08-09 levels rather than 45 games)

Passing: Assist percentage 51.6, turnover percentage 12.9. Assist/Turnover ratio 4.165441176. Don’t know where to get multi-year pure point stuff. Needless to say, off the charts.
Defense: The games pre-eminent defensive point guard (see for instance recent articles about how great his D is).
Shooting/spacing: 37.7% from three with significant numbers of those off the bounce, with high defensive attention and limited time.

Coach Bird I covered when I selected him.

Okay these are getting shorter because I’ve already spent too much time on this. Will maybe enhance and add detail for my second 5 when desired / when I get a chance. Or wait until matchups are done for further details. I’ll give years and maybe quick notes now.

Kemp 94-96: Big, versatile, athletic defender. Superb rebounder. A better floor spacer than you may think.

Nance 91-93: Chose this version over earlier similarly productive models for spacing (had a deadly 18 footer at this point), lower mistakes and supreme shot blocking.

Marques Johnson 79-81: Some point forward tendencies (though not fully in that role until final of the three year span), superb offensive rebounder at the SF, low mistake player. Like Malone chips in across the boxscore.

Eddie Jones 99-01: Agile, long, athletic wing defender will generate steals and block and contest shots. Will be even better when allowed primarily to focus on that (may see significant time with “first unit”). Fares well in Across the Court’s RAPM for ’99 and ’00. Another low mistake player. Good shooter (and as shown later in career, better when not a primary focus of defensive attentions, lockout year also hurt everyone’s percentages)

Terrell Brandon 96-98: Similar to Paul, minimizes turnovers, an accurate shooter despite defences focused on him. Very quick though a little undersized. Slow pace deflates his raw numbers. Hollinger made strong claims on his offensive impact in ’02 though I’d have to compare with other WoWY numbers and understand them better, in any case he carried a crummy offensive cast in slow down system to a fourth seed.

But fitting with the three year peak nature of this contest I'm going with Larry Bird

Why (given there were title winners on the board)?

- Bird's reputation ensures he commands the respect of the team (shouldn't be an issue, but when minutes get are tight with an all-time team it might help)

- Performance exceeded the talent (whether against '97 -factoring in Smits' injury - or '96) with the same core as coach already selected, Bird produced not insubstantial improvement in SRS.

- Playoff performance - Beyond the above Bird coached the '98 Pacers as close as anyone to defeating a full strength Bulls team (Riley's '92 Knicks also took it to 7 games and fwiw also posted a -3.8 per game differential; '93 Suns do a better job in differential, but this includes benefiting from a 8 point margin in triple OT win, so closer than the diff suggests and only 2-4 in the series); then too he took the 2000 Pacers to the finals and competed with the 3-peat Lakers (superior points diff, but a 2-4 loss). Overall a .615 win percentage in the playoffs is very favourable.

- Player's Coach - With elite players on an all time-y squad you don't need a ranter and raver or someone calling every play.

- Trusted (smart) people - Knew what he did best, and knew when to delegate. One instance would be bringing in Carlisle as his offensive assistant coach.

- Not antithetical to the modern game - Bird (like most ex-pros) might not be metrically inclined but his Pacers (and, okay, they had Reggie), shot and made a fair amount of three's and, at least as importantly, defended the three point line well.

11
SkyHookFTW
Moses Malone
Kevin McHale
Bobby Jones
James Harden
Isiah Thomas

Jack Sikma
Billy Cunningham
Alex English
Hal Greer
Calvin Murphy

Coach: Billy Cunningham

Spoiler:

No team has the pure level of talent, versitility and accolades that my team has. The RealGM Top 100 project agrees: 8 of my 10 players, 80% of my team, is represented in the Top 100 project. My team is the best balanced out of all. GOAT rebounding, GOAT post play, speedy, athletic combo guards, fast, rebounding SF's (one a combo forward), insane volume and efficient scoring, plenty of defense...and 70% of my team played or coached in the 80's, the toughest era of basketball ever. My players excelled on the court. Plus I have a coach who knows not only how to play but knows how to get a team of stars to play together and win a title. And if that isn’t enough, I have, wrapped into one player, a GOAT-level flopper AND a GOAT-level beard.

All of my players have skills that fit in today’s game.

I believe that some of the older players are getting no respect. I’m still trying to figure out how players like Alex English, Hal Greer, and Billy Cunningham fell to me.

Moses Malone (81-83)
Kevin McHale (87-89)
Bobby Jones (80-82)
James Harden (13-15)
Isiah Thomas (84-86)

Jack Sikma (82-84)
Billy Cunningham (69-71)
Alex English (85-87)
Hal Greer (67-69)
Calvin Murphy (78-80)

Coach: Billy Cunningham (.698 win%)

It’s 1:00 AM here, so without going into insane detail, here is a snippet of each player.

Moses: 12x NBA all-star, 3x MVP, 1x finals MVP, 1x all-1st defense team, 1x all-2nd team defense, 5x all-NBA 1st team, 5x all-NBA 2nd team, outplayed Kareem and Hakeem head to head in their careers. Led the league in rebounding 6 times. Over 1,200 games in a row without fouling out (NBA record, as Wilt didn’t play as many games as Moses) despite his physical play. GOAT offensive rebounder, GOAT-level rebounder period. Excellent playoff performer, averaged 22.1 points and 14 rebounds per game in the playoffs. Respectable 76% FT shooter. Was a key player in one of the GOAT teams of all-time…some say that 76ers team is the best ever.

Ugh…too tired. I’ll get back and finish this tomorrow. I have to get up for work in four hours.

As promised, here are short bio's of my insanely talented team.

No team has the pure level of talent and accolades that my team has. The RealGM Top 100 project agrees: 8 of my 10 players, 80% of my team, is represented in the Top 100 project. My team is the best balanced out of all. GOAT rebounding, GOAT post play, speedy, athletic combo guards, fast, rebounding SF's (one a combo forward), insane volume and efficient scoring, plenty of defense...and 70% of my team played or coached in the 80's, the toughest era of basketball ever. My players excelled on the court. Plus I have a coach who knows not only how to play but knows how to get a team of stars to play together and win a title. And if that isn’t enough, I have, wrapped into one player, a GOAT-level flopper AND a GOAT-level beard.

All of my players have skills that fit in today’s game.

I believe that some of the older players are getting no respect. I’m still trying to figure out how players like Alex English, Hal Greer, and Billy Cunningham fell to me.

Moses Malone (81-83)
Kevin McHale (87-89)
Bobby Jones (80-82)
James Harden (13-15)
Isiah Thomas (84-86)

Jack Sikma (82-84)
Billy Cunningham (69-71)
Alex English (85-87)
Hal Greer (67-69)
Calvin Murphy (78-80)

Coach: Billy Cunningham (.698 win%)

It’s 1:00 AM here, so without going into insane detail, here is a snippet of each player.

Moses: 12x NBA all-star, 3x MVP, 1x finals MVP, 1x all-1st defense team, 1x all-2nd team defense, 5x all-NBA 1st team, 5x all-NBA 2nd team, outplayed Kareem and Hakeem head to head in their careers. Led the league in rebounding 6 times. Over 1,200 games in a row without fouling out (NBA record, as Wilt didn’t play as many games as Moses) despite his physical play. GOAT offensive rebounder, GOAT-level rebounder period. Excellent playoff performer, averaged 22.1 points and 14 rebounds per game in the playoffs. Respectable 76% FT shooter. Was a key player in one of the GOAT teams of all-time…some say that 76ers team is the best ever. Was a good man-to-man defender, and under Cunningham played his best team defense. Entering the league at a skinny 215 lbs., bulked up to 250 with the 76ers.

Kevin McHale: GOAT-post player, 7x all-star, 3x all-1st team defense, 3x all-2nd team defense. First NBA player to shoot over 60% from the field and 80% from the foul line in the same season. Key component of the best front court in NBA history (the original Big Three). Has jumps, spin moves, dips, and a sweet touch that complimented his defensive ability—a great two-way player. He was another player who played just as well in the playoffs. He was tough: played through a post-season with a broken bone in his foot—effectively. The man called Frankenstein has some of the longest arms ever seen on a court.

Bobby Jones: It’s not a stretch to say he is a top-three defensive player in NBA history. 4x all-star, 8x all-1st team defense, 1x all-2nd team defense in the talent stacked late 70’s-80’s, no less. If ABA counts, he was 1st team defense two years, which means that every year he played, he was 1st team defense except for the one year he only made 2nd team all-defense. You like “glue guys?” You like effective, efficient team players? Look no further than Bobby Jones. Jones didn’t cheat or take unfair advantage of anything—he was too much of a Christian gentleman to do so. What he earned on defense was earned through pure technique and positioning—probably the best technical defender the NBA has ever seen (according to basketball god Sonny Hill as well). Jones didn’t need the ball in his hands to be effective, and his efficient scoring was always an asset. Able to play both the SF and PF positions (he had too when Dr. J was on the floor with him), Jones did whatever it took to help his team win.

Trivia: Bobby Jones and Bob McAdoo competed against each other in high school in the high jump.

James Harden: a modern player that is well-known enough that I don’t need to write about him. Fear the Beard, and Don’t Mock the Flop! Will one day take his place in the RealGM top-100…probably knocking off a player on someone else’s team, hehe. Larry Bird=.376 3pt%, James Harden=.370 3pt%...I’m not complaining too much. His best three years have produced eye-popping numbers.

Isiah Thomas: One of RealGM’s most polarizing players. Here are the quick facts. On my team, he ain’t chucking the ball, which is good because you can’t deny his playmaking abilities (although some will find a way to do so anyway). I myself am not a particular big fan of his game, but the man didn’t become a 12x all-star because he sucked. This whole league is a playoff atmosphere, and that is when he stepped up. A true 20-10 player in his prime.

Jack Sikma: Would you like to have a 7-footer today who can space the floor, has a nice shot to 17 feet, can hit the “3”, get 18+/11+ in his prime, and have the ability to shoot over 90% from the FT line? Well, that’s Jack Sikma. Trivia: AFAIK, he is the only center to shoot over 90% from the FT line two years in a row….hell, one of the few players ever to do that. His .922% one year is still one of the NBA’s best ever. A great workaholic-type to spell Moses or even put in if I want to change up the offense. When people discuss HoF snubs, his name come up a lot. The 7x all-star also made an all-NBA defensive team. His shot was damn near impossible to block, as he pulled it behind and above his head. He led the league in defensive rebounds 2x’s. When Yao Ming came into the league, he was the man hired to teach him the details of playing the game. His 32.8% 3pt% is among the best ever for a center (might be the best, not sure).

Billy Cunningham: The Kangaroo Kid was the 6th man on the GOAT team. Incredible leaper, remarkably consistent, smart, speedy, “instant offense,” one of the best rebounding SF’s around, and can play defense, how did he fall to me?????? The 4x all-star, 3x all-NBA first teamer (would have had more awards if he didn’t jump to the ABA for a few years), averaged close to 23 points and over 12 boards per game in his NBA peak. Averaged over 5 assists at his NBA peak and not an embarrassment at the FT line either. Fast, could jump, slash, attack the basket, score and rebound…would transition well into today’s game, keeping defenders honest. Injuries cut his career short...he would be higher up the ladder if not.

Alex English: Speaking of offense, how about the highest scoring player of the talent stacked 1980’s? An 8x all-star? 3x all-NBA second team? How did this pure scoring machine fall to me???? 28/5 at his peak, not physically strong but possessor of great technique and a tough to block shot, one might call him the offensive Yin to B. Jones’s defensive Yang. His Per 36 minute and Per 100 possession numbers are off the charts. Small ball? Hehe, put English and Cunningham on the floor at the same time with big guard Harden, any PG and Moses in the paint…have fun guarding that lineup.

Hal Greer: I have to believe he lasted as long as he did due to a bias from 60’s players. The shooting guard from the NBA GOAT team, this combo guard was athletic, fast, strong, and despite being the 3rd best guard of his era (behind Oscar and Jerry), was said (by Oscar and Jerry, no less) to have the best mid-range jumper of his day. A 10x all-star, 7x all-NBA second teamer, he averaged over 22ppg and 5.5 boards while shooting 80% from the FT line. Adjusted for his era, that’s quite good, and given his shooting skills and technique, could develop a 3 point shot if he played today.

Calvin Murphy: I think he’s the shortest player picked for the draft. Quickness and defense was his hallmark. The short combo guard was putting up 20ppg at his peak. Remarkably consistent for most of his career, he once held the NBA FT% record at .958 for a season. Never an all-start, he was just one of those guys who came in and did what he had to do. Trivia: with at least 14 children from 9 different women, he deserves to be mentioned among the GOAT baby-mama makers.

Coach: Billy Cunningham. Who knows what his coaching record would be if he stayed longer? He reached the 200-win, 300-win, and 400-win mark faster than any coach in history. Every year he coached he made the playoffs. He knew how to make a team of stars work together...something he had first-hand experience with from his playing days on the 66-67 GOAT 76ers. Cunningham coached against teams in the talent-stacked 80's, so going up against other star-studded teams is nothing new for him as a player and coach. Trivia: he helped bring the Miami Heat into existence.

This team can score from the perimeter, from inside, from midrange, and from the foul line. This team can go big ball or small ball, and is just a nightmare to defend against--too many weapons to shut down. Scorers like English, Cunningham (excellent rebounder too), and Greer coming off the bench, plus a big like Sikma who can hit from the outside and still gets boards? Yikes, the opposing defense never gets a break.This team can play defense quite well too. Bobby Jones should be on everyone's all-time starting five on D, not to mention the other players who can defend.

Starting five: Moses (C), McHale (PF), B. Jones (SF), The Beard (SG), Zeke (PG). My starting five has the perfect blend of inside (Moses and McHale) with perimeter shooting (Beard). The Moses-McHale duo is the best offensive inside game of any team. McHale may be the GOAT post-up player, Moses GOAT offensive rebounder, so I will score inside. The other teams cannot pack the paint with THE BEARD on the perimeter. Least they forget, Bobby Jones is a very efficient shooter when he shoots, especially from midrange. Billy C. was imploring him to shoot more with the Sixers, a big compliment when you look at that stacked 83 team. Zeke is a great playmaker; given the scoring on this team, he won't have to make many passes or shoot much at all. The starting five has too many weapons to stop--any defense will have to spread itself out thin. That is bad news against my post game.

Should a team decide to small ball me with speed, well, I can do that too. I'm not worried about my guards, as I have speedy Calvin Murphy to relieve Zeke (who is fast anyway), and athletic deadly jump-shooting Hal Greer to take over. Greer, used to playing at a high pace, will run all day. As stated earlier, he was considered by coaches and players to have the best midrange jumper of his era, better than West or Oscar. But the real trump card is being able to bring in Billy Cunningham and Alex English on the floor at the same time. Billy C. will slash, leap, grab rebounds, play D, and score....English, Mr. Silk himself, was the highest scoring player of the stacked 80's. Watch his highlights and view the artistry and moves he had. Finally, Jack Sikma gives me a big with some speed, a 3 point shot, very good midrange shooting, rebounding, and a nice all-around game. Sikma would be a very coveted player in today's game. He is also the best shoot big from the FT line in NBA history.

My front court and back court can switch up to meet any challenge--or cause mismatches on the other end. Jones played a lot of PF for the 76ers; McHale did play center at times effectively, and Moses is really a natural PF. All three can switch and be effective. Hal Greer was moved off the pint earlier in his career because he was too good of a SG, but he played the point very well. Zeke and Murphy can both play SG, but their size makes me not want to do that. Harden would be a killer PG...I'm trying to imagine a Greer-Harden backcourt. Switching Greer with Zeke and using Sikma with either Moses or McHale at PF might be the ultimate spacing on offense of any team.

On defense, Having one of the GOAT defenders in Bobby Jones is a coup--almost every year he played he was 1st team all-NBA defense (one year he was "only" 2nd team). Paired with McHale, an excellent defender in his own right (everyone forgets he was 4x 1st team, 4x 2nd team all-NBA defender), and Moses (actually a good one-on-one guy who played good team D under Cunningham), the front court will hold its own. Rebounding is a given with Moses, McHale, Sikma, Jones, and Cunningham. Moses bulked up to 250+ with the 76ers, and given that he never gives up on a ball, Ben Wallace and his type may be in for a surprise. I don't know of anyone who fought harder under the basket than Moses. Jones and McHale have great length and were always tough to shoot against--one reason they racked up so many all-NBA team defense accolades. And don't worry about Moses getting into foul trouble--as I already pointed out, he holds the NBA record for most games played in a row without fouling out. Murphy, Zeke, and Greer were fast, quick, tenaciuos defenders and will make life hard for the other team's guards. English, Harden, and Sikma were not great man defenders, but play well in a team defense context. Sikma was actually quite a good help defender, and his length is problematic for the opponent.

I sent Penbeast a private with my write up.

[Owly]

The pitch for my team is mostly above.
Here’s a little additional general hype that penbeast got

Spoiler:

The elephant in the room. I’ve got a very high usage team. Whilst that means my edge in productivity by some metrics is overstated on the whole I think this is a good thing. All my players are at least reasonably capable of creating a shot so if a play breaks down and there’s not enough time to run anything I should still get a reasonable shot. Also against better teams than the ones faced in reality, and versus these better defences, more creation ability is required. The case against this would be if I had a team of poor passers, players lacking the tools to play off the ball or ego-headcases. I don’t.

The Numbers – First Five (%s versus the 11 teams with a fully “modern” i.e. mid 70s and on block% etc available).

My first five’s cumulative assist % is 2.625968 standard deviations above average. A part of that is having go to guys who take up a large share of the teams shots, so the total number of “teammates shots” that make up 100% is smaller for them. Nonetheless by picking strong passers at each position I feel confident that the team offense will flow well.

The other point of strength is one already alluded to in my main post. Extra (shooting) possessions, part of this as noted will be from minimizing turnovers (having a “point forward” like Hill also makes less vulnerable to any press) and despite the high rate of assists my team’s turnover percentage is better than (i.e. below) average. The other part is through creating turnovers at the other end. Effective stealers at every position lead me to cumulative 11.6 steal% from my first five, 1.846213 standard deviations above the average.

Other numbers
-Rebounding: Above average (Defensively strong, offensively below average). Offensive rebounding should improve with decreased shot creation responsibilities.

- Unweighted TS%: Superficially, somewhat weak. But this largely I think a function of era (Lanier and to a lesser degree Carter selected from relative down periods in league TS%, I think this about rules and enforcement thereof, and the skillsets which made them strong within their eras will translate). Again being more selective and more created for (with good passers), as well as steals leading to transition baskets will also boost this into an area of strength.

- Shotblocking: Weak amongst first five one area where having mixed lineups (i.e. not “1st unit, with my top 5 picks, then second unit” platooning) can help.

- Cumulative boxscore metrics- These may oversell my team because it’s a high usage and they won’t all be able to maintain that (though as noted I expect some gains in trade off for that – e.g. better shooting percentages, better offensive rebounding, more energy on D). I’ll leave PER out of it because it’s more tied in with usage. Still WS/48 total 1.099 versus an average of 0.998182. Up 1.973959 standard deviations. Second is Revis at 1.056 (+1.132045 sds).
On BPM I’m a cumulative 35.8 versus the norm of 25.20909 (up 2.182468 standard deviations). Second is Quotatious at 29.7 (+0.925441 sd).
Yes these numbers overstate my team’s superiority (they can’t maintain their usage from which some of their value comes, and BPM might like steals slightly too much and my team is strong in that area). Still I think they show my team’s massive productivity and given that these players fit within the outlined framework of passing, spacing and D I set out. On D, my DBPM and DWS are both above average.

Full team – Unweighted (versus 8 teams with full modern rosters, this no longer includes Revis, one of the stronger competitors from the first data set)

Areas of apparent weakness strengthened.

TS%, unweighted: Still sub-mean but 3rd of the 8. RSCD and Dr Spaceman break the curve, but have teams in which lesser shot creators raise the TS% disproportionately (for instance with RSCD, Korver on the second unit, plus on the “first five” the 2 highest usage guys in real life, Pierce and Bosh, are the lowest TS% guys), which isn’t to say this isn’t a legit area of strength for them, just an issue with the measure.

Blocks: Now average.

Offensive rebounding: Now clearly above average (with defensive rebounding remaining a strength, I come out second in rebounding overall to thizznation).

Areas of strength still the same (dominate in assist and steal % and cumulative box score metrics).

Note: for some opposing teams the years are assumed - where they weren't given or were given late in the process. In such cases the years chosen were an attempt to pick the best possible 3 year spell.

I’ll trust Bird with the rotation but will probably be suggesting something like 32-16 for most positions maybe 27-21 at SF (Hill-Johnson) and 24-24 at SG (Carter-Jones).

First Five Comparison (henceforth slightly more focused on opponents because my team is heavily hyped above)

All my team are a threat to steal the ball (a cumulative 11.6 steal %, versus 9.4 for my opponents and 9.83 as the league average - amongst fully “modern” starting 5s) and my opponents greatest weakness is turnovers (a cumulative 72.7%, versus approximately 61.4% for me with an estimate for Lanier).

As touted in my general writeup the vast majority of my team (and in particular the first 5) are strong and willing passers. There’s a superlative lead on all other teams in assist % and though as covered above this is in slight part due to them all taking a fair chunk of their teams shots, and they can’t all have the ball at once, they are nonetheless very effective passers who will play a smart team game.

Skyhook’s passing is slightly sub-mean (though above the median). Where this may be a problem is the bigs. Both McHale and Malone’s games are predominantly in the post and neither look to pass out or pass out terribly well. I think this is an issue.
Their seeking the ball in the post also raises spacing issues (my teams spacing is covered in the general writeup). McHale and Moses both prefer to play in the post and it was said of Bobby Jones that he didn’t take shots outside ten feet (hence his tremendous percentages). Isiah shouldn’t be shooting threes so Harden is the only threat from that range.

Now, that isn’t to say there’s a spacing crisis; whilst Moses wasn’t stepping outside much at this point in his career, his ft% is by this point healthy for a big, McHale can shoot from the outside, Jones, whilst I’ve noted he didn’t tend to doesn’t seem incapable, and whilst Isiah is a below average outside shooter for a guard, he’s competent.

No, it’s merely to suggest that if McHale and Moses are taking more outside shots to make room for the other their percentage goes down, as does Jones if he is required to provide spacing etc.

These team numbers are based on McHale 86-88 rather than 87-89 (that improves the numbers both because ’86 is a superior season and a lower minutes one, thereby giving ’87 a larger weighting).

My opponents "first 5" strengths
Foul Draw
I think my opponents are the second most free throw generating team (RSCD3_ first). Still my D isn’t (iirc) too foul prone so whilst this is certainly a concern it’s not a big one.

Scoring efficiency
Somewhat a product of era (nobody like VC or Lanier from less efficient years, large numbers from more efficient 80s). Also Jones, whilst very accurate, was highly selective, whilst Thomas played in a high TS% league on a hyper paced team, meaning he got easy baskets. As per the above, McHale, Malone and Jones can’t/won’t all being getting as many shots as normal from in close.

Offensive rebounding
My opponents are potent on the offensive boards, mainly due to Moses. Still my team has a better overall trb% and so I’ll happily predict we’ll win the battle of the boards.


Strategies
I’ll mostly defer to my coach but ...

On D
Double in the post. McHale and Moses are generally fairly unwilling or unable passers. Either defensive man is a threat to swipe it away, even if the ball gets out, my opponents aren’t great outside shooters (and my team are strong athletes and so in a good position to recover).

On O
The talent is there and the leadership is there so do not require too much direction (plus as before don’t want to tread on my coaches toes). Still, without disrupting the flow of our offense, we might seek to target Harden, whose D prior to this year was a running joke on the internet. Running him into Lanier and Malone to soften him up and get Vince (and Eddie) some good looks from 3 might therefore be one way to go.



Bench
I think 60s and early 70s wings are a substantial gamble to translate (Greer’s advanced boxscore metrics aren’t that impressive even within his own era). Cunningham as the nominal power forward will bring a lack of size. Murphy was tough, but not a good defender and fairly easy to pick, which creates mismatch problems. I don’t like the bench for D, for rebounding, for three point range. For what it’s worth I do like Sikma. As covered in the spoiler section above, my bench contributes to strong overall ratings and addresses areas of relative weakness.



I think Skyhook picked an above (this) league average team in terms of talent/productivity (though I’m not sure years were optimised, McHale seems one year out, Murphy by the numbers at least looks like 74-76 would be the years, English perhaps 82-84?). Nonetheless I think my team is better in that department and doesn’t have the issues of fit (Malone and McHale as star bigs both most comfortable around the basket and neither a good passer).

[trex_8063]

Hmmm......this match-up was one of the tougher ones for me. It's also kind of interesting because both Owly and Skyhook went heavy toward stars, as apposed to patching in with role players.

I appreciate that Owly's gone to more apparent effort in collecting well-balanced players, players who are not at all one-dimensional.

Skyhook has somewhat overloaded his team with offensive firepower (redundancy and whatnot: is, after all, only one ball in play), and he's been sort of vague on how it will all work. He has at least stated that Isiah's shots will be limited (which is likely to the better). That does leave me a bit worried of redundancy in his starting backcourt: Harden requires the ball in his hands to do his thing; Isiah also would need to dominate the ball too (even if it is to play the facilitator). So one of these two is largely going to be mitigated offensively; I don't see a good way around that.
Otherwise, it is true that he has a scoring weapon at nearly every position, and he has talent that perhaps needs limited direction. Even if opponent has a good stopper at three positions, Skyhook will often have a very good scorer at the fourth (and then Moses to clean up on the glass). So there is that.

He has good penetrators in Harden and Zeke (Zeke likely even better than in reality, without hand-checking), and he has a very reliable low-post scorer in Kevin McHale. McHale and Jones are both adept at being in the right place at the right time to catch and finish (both excellent finishers), too. And Moses can clean up after the misses.

That said, it's not as though his offense is without flaw (aside from redundancy).

For one, he's overstating Harden's 3pt ability as well as the ability of a single 3pt shooter to adequately space the floor.
Harden in the years specified was a 37.0% 3pt shooter. Since we're talking about the modern game, those three years give a pretty good picture of what average 3pt shooting expectation is. League average over that span was 35.6%. So Harden is only slightly better than league average (although admittedly he takes a lot off the dribble, only 52.8% were assisted; it's probable he'd shoot better if more came in spot-up fashion, though this again raises the question of who's going to be dominating the ball: Harden or Zeke?).

And then who's the next best 3pt shooter? Probably Jack Sikma. Although not a 3pt shooter at all in the years specified, I again assume older players would either come of age in the modern era or at least have 1-2 years to train for the modern game. Sikma proved he could be a 3pt shooter: in his final three seasons he shot 35.6% on 2.4 3PA/g. In his final prime (or at least semi-prime) season ('89) he shot 38% on 2.7 3PA/g. So I think it's safe to assume he'd be at least an average (if not marginally above) 3pt shooter.
And then there's almost no one else. It's likely Greer would be OK, but I'm not comfortable assuming better than average 3pt shooting from him. Zeke, Murphy, English, Jones.....none of them were reliable from behind the arc (Jones maybe not even reliable beyond 19 ft); unsure if Cunningham would be relevant.

In short, he's got arguably the WEAKEST 3pt shooting team in this whole tournament. I see that as problematic on multiple levels:
1) It's going to clog the lanes a bit for Harden and/or Isiah.
2) Owly has already expressed intent to double if it goes into the post. He's really been given the freedom to safely do so when there are limited shooters he'll be leaving alone. Neither McHale or Malone is terribly good (or even willing) about passing it back out anyway (that too is problematic given Owly's intent to double them).
So this lack of shooting is going to hinder Skyhooks offense in more ways than one.


I also don't think Skyhook's rebounding is quite as dominant as he seems to believe. Moses is obviously a singular rebounding talent, and Bobby Jones will be an excellent rebounding SF (where he appears intent on playing him); Sikma is also a good rebounding center. But McHale is actually not that good a rebounding PF, Cunningham (if played at PF) is not going to be overly effective as a rebounder; average overall at the remaining perimeter positions. So he'll be good there, for sure; but I don't know if his rebounding will be "dominant".

Lastly, I'm not terribly impressed with Skyhook's defensive backcourt:
Isiah, while not elite, is at least quick, attentive, and hard-nosed. With a reduced offensive role, I think he'd take well to increased defensive focus, and thus could likely be a good perimeter defender. Although he lacks the size to be versatile: he can guard PG-sized PG's only.
Murphy may be quick and scrappy, but his size will make it difficult for him to fight thru screens, and there will be an ugly mis-match any time he gets caught on a switch. Additionally, his size makes him poorly effective at significantly contesting shots (even on PG's).
Harden is totally decent defensively THIS year......but we're looking at the average of '13-'15 Harden (and he was something of a joke defensively prior to this year). So we're looking at an at least slightly below average defender here.
Greer has a reputation as a decent defender. He is short for a SG, though (again: shot contesting and/or being taken advantage of in the post or on a switch).
Overall, this is AT BEST an average defensive backcourt (and probably slightly below average, tbh).

Without going into more detail, these are the reasons I must vote: Team Owly.

[trex_8063]

Addendum, just to add a little more about why I favor Owly's team for this match-up....

Offensively, here's what I like about his squad:
1) Ball control. He's arguably got the best ball-control team in the tournament. Limiting turnovers is going to add to his overall offensive efficiency, as well as limit transition opportunities for his opponents.
2) While I wouldn't say he's got outstanding 3pt shooting, he's got better 3pt shooting than Skyhook has. And he's also got better mid-range shooting from his PF/C's. Spacing on offense is going to be better than Skyhook's.
3) CP3 and Mailman, or CP3 and Kemp, or CP3 and Lanier, or CP3 and Nance.......the pnr or pick n' pop should be really excellent on his team.
4) I like his play-making better, mostly because he's got playmakers at multiple positions.


And defensively, although he doesn't have a single defensive player as good as Bobby Jones, I nonetheless sort of like his defense slightly better. The thing with Owly's team is that, while he doesn't have the traditional awesome defensive anchor that many of the rest of us tried to set ourselves up with, he just doesn't really have any holes in his defense, regardless of the line-up he floors. If I were to use a simple grading system (definition where necessary) like......

Godawful
Poor
Fair (that is: mediocre or barely average/adequate)
Good (that is: very slightly above average)
Very Good (significantly above average)
Excellent (like top 10-15% at his position)
Elite (~top 5-6%)
GOAT-level (top 1-2%)

.....to give a defensive grade to the players on Owly's roster, I'd rate it something like this:

PG
Paul: Excellent-to-Elite
Brandon: Fair (or Fair-to-Good)

SG
Carter: Good
E. Jones: Excellent

SF
Hill: Excellent (or at least Very Good-to-Excellent; really a puzzler that he never received All-D honors)
Johnson: I'll admit I don't really know, but based on reputation can get a grade of "Good" at least

PF
Malone: Excellent (or at least Very Good-to-Excellent)
Nance: Excellent

C
Lanier: Good
Kemp: Very Good


So again, he's just got a solid defensive group---at every position---pretty much regardless of who he has in the game. Whereas Skyhook is at the very least going to be weak defensively in his backcourt, and doesn't exactly have a supreme rim-protector to cover for that (Bobby Jones roving from SF position can only do so much).

[Quotatious]

SF
Hill: Excellent (or at least Very Good-to-Excellent; really a puzzler that he never received All-D honors)

I'm a big fan of Grant Hill, but the thing is, he became an excellent defender in Phoenix, as an old man. He was "only" above average in his prime in Detroit. Well, for what it's worth, he won an award for his defense in college, so I guess there's a good chance that his defense would be great if he played on such a stacked team like he has here.

[trex_8063]

SF
Hill: Excellent (or at least Very Good-to-Excellent; really a puzzler that he never received All-D honors)

I'm a big fan of Grant Hill, but the thing is, he became an excellent defender in Phoenix, as an old man. He was "only" above average in his prime in Detroit. Well, for what it's worth, he won an award for his defense in college, so I guess there's a good chance that his defense would be great if he played on such a stacked team like he has here.

Fair enough. So maybe we can downgrade him into the "Good" to "Very Good" range. Although like you say, he may be able to lend additional focus to defense with his reduced offensive role on such a stacked team.

btw--I'm going to end up with a God complex if you guys let me decide the winner in each of these match-ups (I think I'm the only one to cast a vote in all except 2 of them).

[Warspite]

These 2 teams are all star type teams. Both have a alpha scorer at every position and neither has specialists. Just great all round talent. These are the hardest simply because both teams have 8 or 9 guys who can give 25-30 pts and dominate the game.

I think Moses is the best player in this league and Cunningham was the MVP. Isiah Thomas is great in this setting as he is the GOAT PG in all star games. Owly has no legit backup C and against Moses/Sikma that is a killer.

Im not quite sure how CP3 and Hill work together but Isiah/harden have similar issues (well not realy since Owlys players are too pass happy and Skyhooks just want to shoot but you get the idea) . This is a very hard 7 game series that is going to require more study.

This does remind me of the 77 NBA Finals. Skyhooks team reminds me of the 76ers and Owlys of the Trailblazers.

[JeepCSC]

Some random points:

- Skyhook's edge in rebounding remains fairly decisive, at least among starters. I'm unsure the years chosen for Carter, but using a reasonable guess, we are looking at ~57% for Skyhook's starters and ~52% for Owly's. The gap is much larger just looking at offensive boards (~37% vs ~27%). One guy can make a huge difference.

- I'm not terribly concerned about Harden and Thomas playing nice. Harden is a high-usage guy out of necessity, but he played 30+ minutes quite effectively on a team with Westbrook. He seems fairly adaptable. That said, outside shooting could prove problematic here. Would like to have seen how skyhook would have handled it.

- In general, this game will be a scorer's paradise. I don't see much in way of speed bumps save Jones. Owly's offense seems to have fewer questions, and perhaps that is all it would take here. I'll vote Owly until/unless Skyhook chimes in.

[Owly]

Some random points:

- Skyhook's edge in rebounding remains fairly decisive, at least among starters. I'm unsure the years chosen for Carter, but using a reasonable guess, we are looking at ~57% for Skyhook's starters and ~52% for Owly's. The gap is much larger just looking at offensive boards (~37% vs ~27%). One guy can make a huge difference.

SkyHookFTW
Moses Malone 20.3
Kevin McHale 13.4
Bobby Jones 13.3
James Harden 7.1
Isiah Thomas 5.7
Total 59.8

Owly
Bob Lanier 17.1
Karl Malone 16.6
Grant Hill 12.5
Vince Carter 8
Chris Paul 7.3
Total 61.5

Benches
SkyHookFTW
Jack Sikma 17.9
Billy Cunningham 14
Alex English 9.5
Hal Greer ???
Calvin Murphy 3.7
45.1 + Greer (Greer not a strong rebounder)

Owly
Shawn Kemp 19.8
Larry Nance 13.5
Marques Johnson 11.5
Eddie Jones 6.9
Terrell Brandon 6.5
58.2

Approximate - Total Rebound % (Starters x(2/3)) + (Reserves x (1/3))

SkyHookFTW 54.9 (+ (1/3)x Greer)
Owly 60.4

It is correct to say as I acknowledged that Skyhook has better offensive rebounding numbers (though this is from the first 5, there isn't much in the way of bench rebounding).

On other comments
I would pitch Hill as a great defender (see my generic team pitch, and the '96 Barry scouting report (not in the range of years, but it's the last one they did) but I can see that it's arguable where on the scale. As was said though he'll (as all my players will) get to focus more on D.

Sikma was 6-11, 230 at the time in question; Kemp was 6-10, 245 (weights per the Hollander yearbooks) and a superb leaper and very capable of defending outside too. I don't see the fact that Kemp wasn't thought of/played at center as a problem.

[JeepCSC]

Wow, I must have forgot Paul or something when I did those numbers. Mea culpa.

I do think you have a good defensive squad. But I still think it seems slated to come down to offense, and your's instinctually makes the most sense.

[trex_8063]

Thru post 11:

Owly (2) - trex_8063, JeepCSC

Skyhook (0)

[trex_8063]

Thru post 11:

Owly (2) - trex_8063, JeepCSC

Skyhook (0)

[SkyHookFTW]

I'm late to the party and already lost, but I feel that I should post some opinions.

I took this whole league to school with me and discussed this with the other two coaches over a few lunch periods. They both believe that both teams were underseeded badly (Owly should have been 3rd, me 6th).

Points of agreement with the voters:
--Spaceing is better on Owly's team
--Three point shooting is better overall
--Better passing in the backcourt
--Better defense in the backcourt

Here is where they disagreed though
--Frontcourt defense is in my favor by a lot. Bobby Jones is an all-time elite defender, as noted (the only one from either team). But they both believe that McHale's defense is being terribly underrated here. The 3x 1st teamer and 3x 2nd teamer on the NBA defensive squads could redirect shots with his long arms...he did a lot in actual games. They believe that the defense between Jones and McHale when on the floor together is considerable enough to force opponents to stay outside more than they would want too. They both said that I have the two best frontcourt defenders on the floor.

--Scoring down low would not be the problem that the voters here believe. 95% of the time, they noted, Owly's strategy of doulbling down in the post would work--but maybe not against this team. Why? Because in real life, both Moses and McHale showed that they could beat double teams, Moses especially. The "King of the putbacks" simply outworked a lot of double teams throughout his career. He outplayed KAJ and Hakeem head to head under the boards as well, so going against tough opponents is no issue. There is no reason to believe anyone in the league on the offensive end would do any better.

--Overall scoring. My team, they said, is probably the team most resistent to a shooting slump in the entire draft. Teams that depend on 3's for scoring don't tend to do well when they go cold, and given Jones and McHale playing tough defense in the paint, opponents counting on low post scoring will not have an easy time. Teams that can hit consistently from midrange like my team are not likely to have that problem, and in my team in particular, if two of three people go cold, it's still no problem since I can just throw waves of scoring from the bench. The likelyhood of my entire team going cold is as close to zero as you can get in this league.

--Small ball...both coaches agree than any team trying to go small ball against this team would be foolish. Zeke, Murph, Billy C., English, and Greer can run like cats, and English and Billy C. would light up the scoreboard. Sikma would have to play center in this arrangement, since he was faster in transition that either Moses or McHale.

Both of my fellow coaches said that this should have been a final four matchup, and of all the matchups, the one that's way too close to call with any certainty. With today's rules, they said that Owly's team is set up better overall. They would love to have seen this in real life.

Congrats to Owly for beating my offensive powerhouse team.