WTF and End-of Year analysis thread

[Doctor MJ]

The tour finals have already started, but it seems like there might be some conversation opportunity here.

Federer beats Nadal in the WTF again.
Murray pulls out.

Thoughts on how it will play out?

[oberyn3]

The tour finals have already started, but it seems like there might be some conversation opportunity here.

Federer beats Nadal in the WTF again.
Murray pulls out.

Thoughts on how it will play out?

I watched the Federer-Nadal match. Talk about a beatdown. I'd have to make Federer the favorite at this point. Djokovic looked very, very vulnerable against Berdych. Murray's out, obviously. Ferrer's never beaten Federer and I don't see him doing it here. Tsonga and Berdych have the firepower to take out Federer, but I just don't see it happening.

I like Murray, and I think it's a shame to see his season end on this note.

[oberyn3]

And right after I posted that, Djokovic got spanked by Ferrer. Federer has to be the clear-cut favorite right now.

[Doctor MJ]

Kind of staggering how weak Nadal & Djokovic have been in these tournaments over the years.

Perspective: Performance of various players in WTF:

Federer 37-7, 84%
Nadal 9-10, 47%
Djokovic 9-9, 50%

This clearly isn't a reflection of peak performance ability of the players, but at the same time, this is the 5th most important tournament of the year except during Olympic years, and it is backed up by huge prize money. Hard to swallow that it's just an effort issue.

Does it really make sense though that health issue the explanation?

[Windmill]

Federer-Tsonga in another finals. This matchup is starting to get a little too boring. I hope Federer can carry over this momentum over to next year.

Is it just me or did it look like Nadal had put on some weight?

[Doctor MJ]

Amazing that Fed & Tsonga, if my count is correct, met 8 times this year. 6 for Fed, 2 for Tsonga. I'd be curious to know how that stacks up compared to others head-to-heads in the Open Era.

Anyway, while Nadal & Djokovic are disappointments in the WTF, I suppose the true story here is Federer. After all playing .500 ball against the Top 8 in the world is not that unreasonable. Fed though is now at 39-7, which means he wins 85% against Top 8 players here. For perspective, Djokovic never had a season north of 80% until this year, and of course that's against mostly players who are not in the top 8.

A 4-1 result at the WTF is a fantastic performance by really any standards, and no one in the past 35 years can claim it as their typical performance at this tournament. Except for Fed, who is closer to 6-1 than he is to 5-1.

Pretty amazing...at the same time, his regular domination of the tournament does make you question whether there's any reason to be particularly optimistic about a return to form next year for the majors. I won't be shocked if he wins one, but it would still seem a more reasonable question to ask if he can maintain his hold of #3 in the world against Murray, a hopefully back to form Del Potro, Tsonga, etc.

[Windmill]

Quick comment about the WTF: Good to see that 2 players playing the best level of tennis at this stage of the season faced off in the finals. Tsonga has seemed more mature on the court and I think that getting the chance to play these top players in a round robin format with success certainly helped boost his confidence.

You know what I can forgive Djokovic's play towards the end of the year since he had been dealing with a nagging shoulder injury that surfaced all the way back in the US Open. To top it off he hasn't really taken much time off since then either so there hasn't been much chance to help it heal.

However, I can't understand Nadal's decline. Is it just wear and tear of a long tennis season or just that he had given up on a relatively less successful season? The latter certainly doesn't seem characteristic of the Nadal we've come to know. But then again maybe all the complaining he's done about the tour schedule finally caught up to him.

As a fan of Federer I have truly been spoiled to see him still playing at such a high level for such an extended period of time. I think another resonable question would be when will Federer's age catch up to him?

[Doctor MJ]

What's particularly interesting about Nadal's consistent WTF struggles is that he is Mr. Master. By that I mean, that the prestige of tournaments go something like this:

Grand Slam
Olympics
WTF
Masters

If you're Serena, and only care about the Grand Slam, it makes total sense that you typically disappoint in the WTF (and the Olympics, and the Masters).

Nadal though racks up Masters like nobody's business, so it's certainly not a matter of the WTF being too minor to concern him.

I think he must just not quite have the stamina to go big all season long. And yes, part of this is physical, but I think it's mental too which is fascinating. Over the course of a match, I don't think there's any one with the ability to just keep fighting to the bitter end. There's a difference though between looking across the net to say "I will not let you beat me", and relishing in the daily grind all year long.

[Doctor MJ]

As a fan of Federer I have truly been spoiled to see him still playing at such a high level for such an extended period of time. I think another resonable question would be when will Federer's age catch up to him?

Well, I think Fed's about a half decade past peak, so I think age has already caught up with him to some degree. That said, he's STILL a better tennis player than peak Andry Roddick, Lleyton Hewitt, or Guga Kuerten, the guys who won the POY awards from 2000 to 2003, so it's certainly fair to say he's still a prime tennis player, and he's been at about the same level since 2008. One would think this couldn't be maintained, but at this point the fall doesn't seem imminent, and we know he has a graceful game that doesn't seem to rip his body apart the way Rafa's does.

How amazing would it be if he ended up declining like Laver/Rosewall?

[Slava]

I wouldn't be surprised if Rafa took this tourney lightly so he could go 100% at the Davis cup.

[Raps in 4]

I wouldn't be surprised if Rafa took this tourney lightly so he could go 100% at the Davis cup.

Yep, both Spain and Serbia are contenders at the DC. This is something Fed doesn't have to worry about.

The man is also a machine. He's still hanging with the best of them at age 30, which is incredible. Despite his age, he's the healthiest among the Big 4.

[Slava]

This was also Rafa's last Davis cup so no wonder he wanted to give it his all.