US Open 2012

[MikeIsGood]

Thrilled for Murray! He won me over at WImbledon this year, the Olympics pushed that further, and after that match (especially the fifth set) I'm firmly in his corner now. I also think, barring something odd happening at the WTF, Murray will be the POY.

[UGA Hayes]

I would put Murray in the lead two GS finals a win and an olympics.

[G R E Y]

I thought I heard a commentator say that Fed would end up #1 regardless of the finals outcome, though that may have been specifically referring to finals for Novak... ?

Anyway, CONGRATULATIONS, ANDY!!! A well fought for and deserved win!!!

[Doctor MJ]

I thought I heard a commentator say that Fed would end up #1 regardless of the finals outcome, though that may have been specifically referring to finals for Novak... ?

Not only is Fed staying number one, he has an even bigger lead now. Short of something huge happening, he'll coast all the way up to the WTF as the #1, and it's hard to imagine he'll fall below #2 after the WTF - it'd take a miracle for Murray to get passed the 3rd spot.

[Doctor MJ]

I also think, barring something odd happening at the WTF, Murray will be the POY.

You've got to remember that Murray basically sucked outside of the Big 5 tournaments.

Season records this year:

Federer 59-8
Djokovic 54-10
Murray 40-11

Murray's played as many tourneys as the other guys, but because he's lost early so often, Fed's won nearly 50% more matches than him.

So, it's going to take something huge for Murray to finish ranked above 3. You might see that as silly if you think the little tournaments are unimportant, but the scale is so big here that Murray's going almost certainly make a lot less money than Fed & Nola this year.

But with that said, if Murray wins the WTF, to me he's the clear POY. At that point he'd have won 3 of the 6 biggest tournaments of the year where the other guys only 1, and he'll clearly be considered the best player in the world in most people's eyes (including Fed & Nola's). Anything short of a WTF win though, and I doubt I'd side with Murray. It's "Player of the Year", not "Player who looked awesome during the summer".

[EH15]

4 different slams, 4 different winners. When was the last time that happened?

How far does Rafa drop in the rankings? If he stays at 4, that would make for an interesting AO.

[Doctor MJ]

4 different slams, 4 different winners. When was the last time that happened?

How far does Rafa drop in the rankings? If he stays at 4, that would make for an interesting AO.

2003 was the last time, which was the year Fed won his first slam.

From 2000 to 2003, 4 years in a row it happened, a period basically known as "back when women's tennis was bigger than men's tennis" because there really wasn't any dominant player.

I'd say it's almost a lock that Rafa is #4 going into the Australian. Right now, Rafa's not planning to come back before the WTF, he'll be #4 at that point, and he typically sucks at the WTF anyway.

[Slava]

I'm hoping this is Murray stepping his game up and not Djoker taking a step back. Phenomenal run from Andy since the Olympics though and if Rafa can return to top form next season could be **** awesome!

[MikeIsGood]

I acknowledge that, but I also see Murray coming on strong to finish the year in the final half. There hasn't been a 'grey' vote for this award in ages, so there really is no precedence in that way for who should win - overall versus slam and final year performance. We go back to Hewitt at the very least. A QF, SF, F, and Championship in the slams, along with the Olympic Gold, in this year puts him in the lead to me. I don't think he's running away with it, but he's there. I don't expect him to wilt at the WTF. Also, there are two other big tournaments left this year for him to shine at.

He is the leader right now, IMO.

[Doctor MJ]

I'm hoping this is Murray stepping his game up and not Djoker taking a step back. Phenomenal run from Andy since the Olympics though and if Rafa can return to top form next season could be **** awesome!

Well I think it's definitely both. Forget about what happened today, Murray had already shown signs he'd reached a new level, and Djokovic was already far more vulnerable than a year ago.

[Doctor MJ]

I acknowledge that, but I also see Murray coming on strong to finish the year in the final half. There hasn't been a 'grey' vote for this award in ages, so there really is no precedence in that way for who should win - overall versus slam and final year performance. We go back to Hewitt at the very least. A QF, SF, F, and Championship in the slams, along with the Olympic Gold, in this year puts him in the lead to me. I don't think he's running away with it, but he's there. I don't expect him to wilt at the WTF. Also, there are two other big tournaments left this year for him to shine at.

He is the leader right now, IMO.

It's murky enough I can't claim you're wrong with any authority.

To my mind he's not the leader because if he were to do nothing for the rest of the year, he really wouldn't have a case to me because he'd be well back of Nadal in both rankings and money, and Nadal's absolutely out of contention. When the scale is that big, I can't ignore it.

On the other hand, he might be the favorite. He's playing the best now, now reason he can't keep that up.

[MikeIsGood]

To my mind he's not the leader because if he were to do nothing for the rest of the year, he really wouldn't have a case to me because he'd be well back of Nadal in both rankings and money, and Nadal's absolutely out of contention. When the scale is that big, I can't ignore it.

Fair enough. I do not agree that it (should) be decided based upon ranking and money, but still fair enough, and I see your point of view.

[Windmill]

Murray has definitely taken that next step that we were all waiting for. And it all started with the Olympics gold medal imo.

What I'm curious to see is how he handles this win. What I mean is since he has worked so hard and has had to suffer 4 grand slam finals losses before finally winning his first gs, I want to know how hungry he'll be. Obviously he still has the number one ranking to look forward to but getting that gs was his top priority no doubt.

[MikeIsGood]

Murray has definitely taken that next step that we were all waiting for. And it all started with the Olympics gold medal imo.

What I'm curious to see is how he handles this win. What I mean is since he has worked so hard and has had to suffer 4 grand slam finals losses before finally winning his first gs, I want to know how hungry he'll be. Obviously he still has the number one ranking to look forward to but getting that gs was his top priority no doubt.

Started with the Wimbledon runner-up, IMO. Very significant loss. I know where you are coming from, but this was a breakthrough. And when a major tournament like this is on the line, I have no reservations.

This is what I hope, of course. Lots of possibilities.

[Doctor MJ]

To my mind he's not the leader because if he were to do nothing for the rest of the year, he really wouldn't have a case to me because he'd be well back of Nadal in both rankings and money, and Nadal's absolutely out of contention. When the scale is that big, I can't ignore it.

Fair enough. I do not agree that it (should) be decided based upon ranking and money, but still fair enough, and I see your point of view.

Well I suppose it's in general a philosophy thing, and in an Olympics year there's a very real additional argument that the Olympics are far more important than the ATP Tour wants to acknowledge.

Generally speaking though, I like the money perspective because the players care about money, and in the end, shouldn't we be going by what the players care about? Of course, there are perks beyond money, so if a player really has a dominant lead on the biggest events I'll side with him. This is why I said that Murray's the lock to me if he wins the WTF. The WTF often gets used as a bit of a tiebreak in these debates when things are close, but in Murray's case since he already has the leap year tiebreak in the Gold Medal, those putative titles with his US Open win give him the clear "year all the players wish they had had".

Understand though that if Djokovic or Federer wins the WTF, they could easily end up with nearly double the amount of earnings Murray has this year. While one might argue someone would rather have a Gold Medal than 3-4 million dollars, when that 3-4 milliion dollars is coming from winning again and again throughout the year while someone else lost and lost, I think most would pick the more winning + more money combination

[Berserk_Raptor]

Congrats Andy!! I guess we'll see Andy winning more GS with Federer declining and Nadal's injury.

[va-mos]

4 different slams, 4 different winners. When was the last time that happened?

How far does Rafa drop in the rankings? If he stays at 4, that would make for an interesting AO.

Ferrer has no chance of catching Nadal, huge gap. And next year Nadal will be defending a Wimbledon 2nd Round, and nothing at the US Open, so I'm thinking a 103rd week at Number One is very likely for Nadal. Team Nadal is exercising extreme caution from now on, to make sure he's ready for each slam. They say he'll be playing less hardcourt events in between the slams from now on. Players aren't allowed to skip hardcourt masters events (Indian Wells, Miami, Toronto, Cincy) without a medical certificate (without a medical reason, they face ranking penalties). But Nadal will always have a medical certificate, due to his regular knee issues (tendinitis and Hoffa syndrome), so easily skipped.

On Murray, he played well enough to beat Djokovic, but I think Murray can play a lot better than that. Murray has all-court skills that he rarely used in the US Open final. He can break the play up with cat-and-mouse and net-play, but slam finals freak him out still. He will improve now that he has a slam title under his belt.

[Doctor MJ]

And next year Nadal will be defending a Wimbledon 2nd Round, and nothing at the US Open, so I'm thinking a 103rd week at Number One is very likely for Nadal.

Really, the fact that he accomplished nothing for two tournaments is the reason why you think he'll get back to #1?

I understand the idea that when you have to defend less point, that means your ranking is likely to go up, but y'know that doesn't actually help you reach the heights you weren't hitting before right?

That said, yeah, I won't be surprised if Rafa spends some more time at #1.

[va-mos]

And next year Nadal will be defending a Wimbledon 2nd Round, and nothing at the US Open, so I'm thinking a 103rd week at Number One is very likely for Nadal.

Really, the fact that he accomplished nothing for two tournaments is the reason why you think he'll get back to #1?

I understand the idea that when you have to defend less point, that means your ranking is likely to go up, but y'know that doesn't actually help you reach the heights you weren't hitting before right?

That said, yeah, I won't be surprised if Rafa spends some more time at #1.

The fact Djokovic was able to win the AO this year, make the final of Roland Garros, semi of Wimbledon, final of US Open, and still lose the number one ranking.....says it all. The fact Serena just won Wimbledon and the US Open, yet still ranked number 4.....says it all. Good luck to Murray/Djokovic/Federer in holding off Nadal next year. Not many profits to be had for those 3 in 2013.

Prior to Wimbledon, Nadal ONLY made 8 of 9 slams finals (and won 5 of them), and 2012 Roland Garros was most the impressive (apart from 2010 US Open maybe). So, based on his 2012 form prior to Wimbledon, of course he will reach the heights of the last 2 years. You don't suddenly lose your tennis skills just because of Hoffa syndrome (a condition whereby the fat behind the knee is pinched between 2 bones), and is cured with rest.

So without Hoffa syndrome, there is no physical question-mark. In fact, Nadal has said he is encouraged that tendinitis is no longer a big issue, thanks to his treatment since 2009. Team Nadal had originally thought he had tenditis in 2012, until they discovered it was the very rare (yet very basic) Hoffa syndrome. And mentally, Nadal is more enthusiastic about tennis after an "off-year" as 2009 was, and now 2012. 2010 was his best year.

Whenever anything goes bad for Nadal it seems to trigger extreme motivation. After missing the 2012 Olympics, Nadal announced his main goal is to play the 2016 Olympics. Uncle Toni, sounds even more motivated, saying "Rafael will play the 2016 Olympics".

Anyway, Nadal isn't really relevant to this thread, so this is my final word on the Nadal situation. Murray's situation is interesting enough.

[Berserk_Raptor]

And next year Nadal will be defending a Wimbledon 2nd Round, and nothing at the US Open, so I'm thinking a 103rd week at Number One is very likely for Nadal.

Really, the fact that he accomplished nothing for two tournaments is the reason why you think he'll get back to #1?

I understand the idea that when you have to defend less point, that means your ranking is likely to go up, but y'know that doesn't actually help you reach the heights you weren't hitting before right?

That said, yeah, I won't be surprised if Rafa spends some more time at #1.

not only because he will gain tons of points, but also its likely to see Federer declining.. Djokovic seems to have lost some confidence, and i guess Murray will have a lot of pressure defending his points..