2014/2015 changes

[Snoopie]

Whenever something bad happens in life my philosophy is to find ways to move forward as fast as possible. So in the spirit of moving on (and forgetting that we just lost another 7 game series to OKC), lets talk 2014/15.

The first thing I want to put on the agenda is Zbo. He has a player option for a massive $17 million (I think) and couldn't see him not picking it up although I do think it's a very real possibility that we try and trade him away during the summer (rumours have abounded in this department for ages anyway) or amnesty him (I'm fairly certain he qualifies).

So there's that.

However, there is a part of me that would love to see Pau return to Memphis for his twilight years to team with Marc. I think a core of Pau/Marc/Conley could be even stronger than what we currently have considering that Pau has slightly greater range than Zbo leaving the paint wide open for Marc to work in.

What are people's thoughts on chasing Pau?

[vanjulio]

hard to see them bring back ZBO unless he takes an enormous pay cut. $16,500,000 just throw that off the table - not happening.

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/memphis.htm

who else do we owe?

Gasol - $15,829,688
Conley $8,760,000
Prince $7,707,865
Lee $5,450,000
Allen $5,000,000
Pondexter $3,146,068
Leuer $967,500
Franklin $816,482
Koufos team option = $3,000,000

you're crazy not to bring koufos back for $3m.
So cap is at $77.0 million let's say. We got $27M to play with for 4 real roster spots (and maybe 2 fillers to bring to 15)...

Free agents
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/99475 ... -2014-2015

OK let's say we make a crazy deal with ZBO. 2 years $20M. down to $17M for 3 more spots..
Will Miler come back for a bargain again? Let's say he does, or someone like him for $2M. $15M for 2 spots left.
You could bring another guy like Kris Humphries, Jan Vesely, Shawn Marion, Trevor Booker (RFA).

If we don't bring back ZBO then let's get on the phone with CHRIS BOSH!!!

[vanjulio]

The other elephant in the room is Prince's expiring contract. GET IT OUT THE DOOR PRONTO.

It would interesting what we could fetch in return in the way of draft picks and cap space. Doubt we'd get much BBALL value/skill/talent in return . But there are some good pieces out there to be had and if we can get into the first round of the draft this June by exchange of Prince's contract - it would be worth that alone!

[SD2042]

In terms of Z-Bo, he wants to win a championship at this stage of his career. This link below spells it out.

http://espn.go.com/blog/marc-stein/post ... -five-z-bo

Prince and QPon need to be gone by the time October comes back around.
Ed Davis's option should not be picked up.
Kosta Koufos option should be picked up.
James Johnson needs another shot to improve his game and b/c he has great athleticism.
Beno Udrih can be kept with Calathes needing to serve his remaining 13 game suspension into the new season.
Find a suitable PF to eventually replace Z-Bo within two years time.
Find a scorer in the draft or FA who can be a great asset to the Grizzlies.
Trade Franklin. With Lee and Allen on the roster, JF will be lucky to squeeze in 2 minutes in games at all.

[darkangle901]

You guys are pretty much spot on. Best case scenario is:

1) Randolph forgoes his option in exchange for a long term deal that lets him retire a grizzly, at a reduced salary and a reduced role in the offense.

2) Prince is dumped for another Courtney Lee type player; cheaper than Prince but with more years. Or more of a straight cap dump with a pick and one small contract coming back.

3) Pau Gasol signs a sweetheard deal with us, making Koufos and Davis expendable. His length and versatility allows us to better exploit teams with the high-low game, the old strategy of putting the biggest guy on the low post player and the smaller big on the high-post player wont work when both are 7ft and can play either role.

4) At least two of the following: Miller is retained, Pondexter comes back at full strength, or we land a 3-D wing elsewhere.

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[jumivi]

Randolph: sign 3yrs 8mill x yr
Udrih: sign
Miller: try so sign
Davis: let him go

TRADE OFFER
Prince and 1st 2014 for Jeff Green
FREE AGENT
offer P.Patterson 3yrs 5mill x yr

2014/2015
Conley Udrih
Allen Lee
Green Pondexter Miller
Zbo Patterson Luer
Gasol Koufos

[vanjulio]

Patterson would be a good upgrade/replacement of Darrell Arthur/Ed Davis.
plus I love calling him "Project Pat". Instant hit with the memphis fans with that nickname.

I believe James Johnson is already out the door - I read on the other BB he was a no-show for his exit interview.

[darkangle901]

JJ is dumb. He finally got some burn and could've been in for a modest payday. But if thats true, then no one will take him seriously as a professional.

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[SD2042]

You have to think from this perspective. When JJ was playing, the injuries were building up. And when guys like TA return and MM started gaining more minutes, JJ became expendible. Keep in mind that outside of his athleticism and defense, offensively he did not bring enough to the table in terms of consistancy. If JJ is likely to return, it would help out the Grizzlies a bit. I hope he can improve his game on both ends and comeback a much better player. If JJ is likely going out the door, then I wish him the best on the rest of his career.

[Snoopie]

Do people really think that Zbo will take a paycut over exercising his player option? I think someone suggested maybe 2 years/$20 million but that's essentially just $3.5 million more than he'd get next season but for 2 seasons. Next year is basically Zbo's last big payday. I'm pretty sure he knows that along with everyone else.. would it really be in his interests (personal, not team) to give it up for a substantially smaller sum of money (relatively speaking, of course)?

Definitely a no brainer to bring back Koufos and apart from him I think Miller is the other player who we should definitely try and hang onto if we can.

I'm a fan of Pondexter but I think his time is up. I'm assuming his $3.1 million for next season is his final year? If so then best case scenario would maybe be to package him with Prince's expiring contract for draft picks.

I think Davis is gone too. As much as I was happy with getting him when we traded Gay he has definitely not turned out to be the player he was in Toronto when he was starting. Whether that his personal attitude or under-utilisation, it's hard to say, but at the moment he's not looking like a player you'd want to keep on your list.

[Snoopie]

Another potential player to target (if we have space) could be Parsons? Houston have a team option but it's such a low price (I think it's like $1 million) that they may have no choice but to let become an RFA if they can't negotiate a contract extension with him.

Realistically speaking he probably won't leave the Rockets but he'd be a perfect fit to replace Prince at SF, although his price tag would probably be what, something in the $35-$40 million/4 years range?

[SD2042]

I wouldn't mind Parsons if he had more kick to him like more aggression as a defender and a scorer's mentality. He's sorta like what Miller was roughly 7 to 8 yrs ago. He's good at what the does. Just need more kick to him to address the Grizzlies needs.

[jefe]

The other elephant in the room is Prince's expiring contract. GET IT OUT THE DOOR PRONTO.

It would interesting what we could fetch in return in the way of draft picks and cap space. Doubt we'd get much BBALL value/skill/talent in return . But there are some good pieces out there to be had and if we can get into the first round of the draft this June by exchange of Prince's contract - it would be worth that alone!

The value of an expiring contract is trading it to a team that wants to dump longterm salary. With that said, expiring contracts are less valuable under the new CBA than they were under the old CBA because most contracts are shorter now (no more 6 and 7 year deals - IIRC most players can only get 4 year deals and in reality they're getting 2 and 3 year deals). Thus, there is less longterm salary waiting to be moved for expiring contracts.

With that said, Prince's expiring ought to be able to fetch something of value. Think of a player with a contract along the lines of Cortney Lee - good player, maybe slightly overpaid, and still has multiple years left on his current deal. If we're angling to get into the first round with Prince's expiring, we're probably going to have to eat some bad, bad salary to do it.

[jefe]

Another potential player to target (if we have space) could be Parsons? Houston have a team option but it's such a low price (I think it's like $1 million) that they may have no choice but to let become an RFA if they can't negotiate a contract extension with him.

Realistically speaking he probably won't leave the Rockets but he'd be a perfect fit to replace Prince at SF, although his price tag would probably be what, something in the $35-$40 million/4 years range?

The Rockets have a team option on Parsons for 2014-15 at just under a million (according to hoopshype). They would have to be bat**** insane not to pick it up. He won't be a free agent this offseason under any scenario.

[jefe]

Do people really think that Zbo will take a paycut over exercising his player option? I think someone suggested maybe 2 years/$20 million but that's essentially just $3.5 million more than he'd get next season but for 2 seasons. Next year is basically Zbo's last big payday. I'm pretty sure he knows that along with everyone else.. would it really be in his interests (personal, not team) to give it up for a substantially smaller sum of money (relatively speaking, of course)?

Definitely a no brainer to bring back Koufos and apart from him I think Miller is the other player who we should definitely try and hang onto if we can.

I'm a fan of Pondexter but I think his time is up. I'm assuming his $3.1 million for next season is his final year? If so then best case scenario would maybe be to package him with Prince's expiring contract for draft picks.

I think Davis is gone too. As much as I was happy with getting him when we traded Gay he has definitely not turned out to be the player he was in Toronto when he was starting. Whether that his personal attitude or under-utilisation, it's hard to say, but at the moment he's not looking like a player you'd want to keep on your list.

To get Zbo to take an annual paycut, we're probably going to have to give him guaranteed years that he couldn't fetch in free agency (this year or next). IMO our best case scenario is 3 years at 30 million total - but in reality he probably wants 4 years at a minimum of 10 per year.

As for Pondexter, he was extended last fall. According to hoopshype, his deal is guaranteed through the 2017-2018 season (a full 4 year extension on his rookie deal). His salary is manageable, and he's a productive player when healthy. However, if we can't move Prince, we're going to have a glut of wing players with a healthy Pondexter.

[darkangle901]

Rather than pay some team to take Prince, what are the chances we just waive him via the stretch provision?

This would drop his cap number to about 2.5 mil over three years. Far as I know it's an option, because he signed his contract after the 2011 CBA and I don't think there's a limit to how many times you can use the provision.

[darkangle901]

On a similar note, I wonder if the Grizzlies don't amnesty Randolph assuming he declines his early-termination option. Wouldn't be a popular move, but he's clearly not a top player anymore and is way overpaid.

They could also stretch TA if they want to go in a more balanced direction dropping his cap number to about 2 million down from 5.

If all three players are waived the total would be $25 million cleared. In theory this would make them players in the FA market. Memphis likely has no chance of signing superstars, but the FA market is very deep, and you could potentially come away with three good starters.

[jefe]

On a similar note, I wonder if the Grizzlies don't amnesty Randolph assuming he declines his early-termination option. Wouldn't be a popular move, but he's clearly not a top player anymore and is way overpaid.

They could also stretch TA if they want to go in a more balanced direction dropping his cap number to about 2 million down from 5.

If all three players are waived the total would be $25 million cleared. In theory this would make them players in the FA market. Memphis likely has no chance of signing superstars, but the FA market is very deep, and you could potentially come away with three good starters.

The new ownership isn't cheap by any means, but I don't know if they'd make any move that you've outlined (you still have to pay the player the money in reality, it just doesn't deliver the cap hit) and then turn around and spend (more) money to bring in other players. But who really knows for sure, other than Pera and Levien themselves?

[jumivi]

it would be interesting what houston does, they said "Rockets Plan To Sign 'Terrific Free Agent' With Cap Space"
i guess they want Bledsoe.
If Zbo is going to take a paycut i would offer no more than 8 mill year x 3yr. He said he already made a lot of money and want to retire in MEM and WIN (plus the moment... he was suspend for the most important game).
Then ill try to take Jeff Green from Boston (i think he could be a "Terrific" player).

[darkangle901]

On a similar note, I wonder if the Grizzlies don't amnesty Randolph assuming he declines his early-termination option. Wouldn't be a popular move, but he's clearly not a top player anymore and is way overpaid.

They could also stretch TA if they want to go in a more balanced direction dropping his cap number to about 2 million down from 5.

If all three players are waived the total would be $25 million cleared. In theory this would make them players in the FA market. Memphis likely has no chance of signing superstars, but the FA market is very deep, and you could potentially come away with three good starters.

The new ownership isn't cheap by any means, but I don't know if they'd make any move that you've outlined (you still have to pay the player the money in reality, it just doesn't deliver the cap hit) and then turn around and spend (more) money to bring in other players. But who really knows for sure, other than Pera and Levien themselves?

Yeah, I wonder that too. The upside is that you can avoid the luxury tax. I think the most plausible scenario is that Prince is waived, since he seems to have negative value even as an expiring, and 2.5 million of dead weight isn't unbearable.