psman2 wrote:[spoiler]While we are waiting to see who will be our 1st round opponent, I thought we could do some trade/FA hypotheticals for this offseason to fill the time.
As of right now if we bring back Brooks to a contract that is is likely to get...15mish (hoping for a 3/55 at most) and our draft pick at 25/26 and likely bring Lofton back too then we are only a few million shy of the tax and have the MLE 11.3m and the BAE 4.4m to use to sign anyone. We might also get a DPE for Clarke of 6.25m, but it can only be used to sign or trade for a player on one year deal. IF we use the full MLE over the TMLE then we would be subject to the tax apron of 170m that we cannot surpass.
So here a scenario:
1. Houston offers the Clippers 1st next year and no salary coming back for Tyus Jones. That pick is 18 right now. We then hopefully use 18 and our own pick 25 to jump up a few spots to get our preferred target. I will leave the target up to you guys. We get a 14 million TPE out of the deal.
2. We resign Brooks, we can argue about the price tag but given our other options resigning him as long as it is not a overpayment is likely out best course of action. SNT could come into play but I will just leave this scenario as we resign him.
3. We know have a 14m TPE, the full MLE 11.3 (can be used as a TPE too now), the BAE 4.4m, and maybe a DPE of 6.25m for Clarke. I think we have to get someone with some PG skills with the lose of Jones and Chandler not ready for prime time yet. We could also use a go to scoring 6th man, and we always are in need of another 3nD wing.
So how would you guys go about filling our our roster?
Possible MLE guys:
Coby White- Is a RFA so we would have to work with that fact. He has had a better year and could fill in that 6th man role for us. I think we would have a good chance of signing him away from Chicago in that 7-8m range. His TS% has gone up every year but he lacks the PG skills to replace Jones.
Christian Wood- If Dallas doesn't choose to resign him then I think the full MLE is going to be what he ends up signing for. A good scorer and rebounder, but D is almost Kanter bad. I think I prefer our 6th man to be a wing, but I really thing Wood could be a good addition to our squad overall and hopefully we can cover for him on D.
Josh Hart- Overall just a solid overall 2/3 that offer plus rebounding and ok skills across the board. Likely take the full MLE to sign if he chooses to leave NY. Not a PG of course but he can handle the ball well enough to be paired with another decent ball handler and not require a true PG on the floor. He is likely my favorite target.
Donte DiVincenzo- I think he opts out of his deal with GS and is a ufa. He is another guy that is well rounded, again not a true PG but can run a offense paired with another decent ball handler. I think he can be a plus shooter and defender. Health has really been the thing that has held him back. I think we could sign him for something in the 8-10m a year range.
Bruce Brown- Another guy that is likely to opt out of his option year. Another jack of all trades that could help fill some of the PG duties while helping 1-3. likely take 10m+ to get him to leave Denver. I think he would be an underrated target for us.
Thybulle- He is off the charts on D but so far his O is been off the charts bad. His shooting since coming over to Portland has improved and if it holds could be a starter on the right team. RFA so may take a overpay or SNT to get him away from Portland.
Possible DPE/BAE guys:
Dennis Smith Jr.- I think he has shown enough to be a 15-20 minute guy and likely doesn't cost much to sign.
Schroder-I don't love the guy but the pickings are thin for backup PGs. We might have to pay him more than this to get him to leave LAL depending what they offer to him.
Possible trade targets using the Tyus Jones TPE of 14m:
Bamba- LAL might not even pick up his option but I am still holding out hope he can turn into something. Likely only cost a 2nd or two.
DFS- 3nD wing that is solid but nothing special. But he will likely be high demand and could cost us the GS 2024 1st to obtain.
Royce O'Neale- Another 3nd SF that may be obtainable for our own 2024 1st LP.
List of a few other PG trade targets: Monte Morris, Wright, and TJ McConnell.
So what say you?
edit. for the one or two of you guys who reads this far we likely going to have to spin off some bodies to use all this avenues of improvement
Spinning off bodies may hurt but on to the rest. I think Plan A is to go big game hunting this offseason and make a swing for a fourth young core guy. We tried that at the deadline and I don't see why we wouldn't again this offseason. Bridges looks to be untouchable unfortunately, but Brown has some rumblings and could shake loose. We also may revisit OG. Otherwise, I think we mostly stay pat. Tyus is pretty needed for the regular season. Likely the postseason too but we will see. I could definitely see the LAC trade happening as part of a bigger deal to dump salary and get another asset though. I like the idea of TJ McConnell as a backup if we do lose Tyus for whatever reason. Brooks likely will cost more than 15m a year but I'm ok bringing him back even at fair market value. We need his defense unless we have a true upgrade. That leaves us trying to pick up someone around the edges and I think DFS or Royce would be great targets. With the new rules allowing us to use the MLE like a TPE, Royce would fit so maybe you can do a Konchar for Royce if we feel that is an upgrade worth pursuing.
As for your MLE list, Hart I would love to get as 2/3 depth. Wood is good but it worries me that teams keep wanting to get rid of him. Brown has not been what Denver hoped, but I like the idea of taking a flyer on him. White or DD as bench gunners especially if Tyus is gone isn't a bad plan. Thybulle would be lower on my list just because shooting has been such a big problem for us I don't know if we can cover for him, but if other options aren't there he is again someone to consider taking a flyer on.
I do agree that big game hunting is always the 1st option. Like if we could spin Tyus to the Rockets and then something like Lac 1st, Mem 2023 or another future 1st and 2024 GS 1st for OG then I think that opens us opportunity to move on from Brooks if we want and use the MLE to focus on a Jones replacement.
I kind of believe that Thybulle can be a league average 3pt shooter, so I am high on him. Especially in lineups that feature Kennard, we need enough defense on the floor to be able to keep him out there as much as possible.
psman2 wrote:[spoiler]While we are waiting to see who will be our 1st round opponent, I thought we could do some trade/FA hypotheticals for this offseason to fill the time.
As of right now if we bring back Brooks to a contract that is is likely to get...15mish (hoping for a 3/55 at most) and our draft pick at 25/26 and likely bring Lofton back too then we are only a few million shy of the tax and have the MLE 11.3m and the BAE 4.4m to use to sign anyone. We might also get a DPE for Clarke of 6.25m, but it can only be used to sign or trade for a player on one year deal. IF we use the full MLE over the TMLE then we would be subject to the tax apron of 170m that we cannot surpass.
So here a scenario:
1. Houston offers the Clippers 1st next year and no salary coming back for Tyus Jones. That pick is 18 right now. We then hopefully use 18 and our own pick 25 to jump up a few spots to get our preferred target. I will leave the target up to you guys. We get a 14 million TPE out of the deal.
2. We resign Brooks, we can argue about the price tag but given our other options resigning him as long as it is not a overpayment is likely out best course of action. SNT could come into play but I will just leave this scenario as we resign him.
3. We know have a 14m TPE, the full MLE 11.3 (can be used as a TPE too now), the BAE 4.4m, and maybe a DPE of 6.25m for Clarke. I think we have to get someone with some PG skills with the lose of Jones and Chandler not ready for prime time yet. We could also use a go to scoring 6th man, and we always are in need of another 3nD wing.
So how would you guys go about filling our our roster?
Possible MLE guys:
Coby White- Is a RFA so we would have to work with that fact. He has had a better year and could fill in that 6th man role for us. I think we would have a good chance of signing him away from Chicago in that 7-8m range. His TS% has gone up every year but he lacks the PG skills to replace Jones.
Christian Wood- If Dallas doesn't choose to resign him then I think the full MLE is going to be what he ends up signing for. A good scorer and rebounder, but D is almost Kanter bad. I think I prefer our 6th man to be a wing, but I really thing Wood could be a good addition to our squad overall and hopefully we can cover for him on D.
Josh Hart- Overall just a solid overall 2/3 that offer plus rebounding and ok skills across the board. Likely take the full MLE to sign if he chooses to leave NY. Not a PG of course but he can handle the ball well enough to be paired with another decent ball handler and not require a true PG on the floor. He is likely my favorite target.
Donte DiVincenzo- I think he opts out of his deal with GS and is a ufa. He is another guy that is well rounded, again not a true PG but can run a offense paired with another decent ball handler. I think he can be a plus shooter and defender. Health has really been the thing that has held him back. I think we could sign him for something in the 8-10m a year range.
Bruce Brown- Another guy that is likely to opt out of his option year. Another jack of all trades that could help fill some of the PG duties while helping 1-3. likely take 10m+ to get him to leave Denver. I think he would be an underrated target for us.
Thybulle- He is off the charts on D but so far his O is been off the charts bad. His shooting since coming over to Portland has improved and if it holds could be a starter on the right team. RFA so may take a overpay or SNT to get him away from Portland.
Possible DPE/BAE guys:
Dennis Smith Jr.- I think he has shown enough to be a 15-20 minute guy and likely doesn't cost much to sign.
Schroder-I don't love the guy but the pickings are thin for backup PGs. We might have to pay him more than this to get him to leave LAL depending what they offer to him.
Possible trade targets using the Tyus Jones TPE of 14m:
Bamba- LAL might not even pick up his option but I am still holding out hope he can turn into something. Likely only cost a 2nd or two.
DFS- 3nD wing that is solid but nothing special. But he will likely be high demand and could cost us the GS 2024 1st to obtain.
Royce O'Neale- Another 3nd SF that may be obtainable for our own 2024 1st LP.
List of a few other PG trade targets: Monte Morris, Wright, and TJ McConnell.
So what say you?
edit. for the one or two of you guys who reads this far we likely going to have to spin off some bodies to use all this avenues of improvement
Spinning off bodies may hurt but on to the rest. I think Plan A is to go big game hunting this offseason and make a swing for a fourth young core guy. We tried that at the deadline and I don't see why we wouldn't again this offseason. Bridges looks to be untouchable unfortunately, but Brown has some rumblings and could shake loose. We also may revisit OG. Otherwise, I think we mostly stay pat. Tyus is pretty needed for the regular season. Likely the postseason too but we will see. I could definitely see the LAC trade happening as part of a bigger deal to dump salary and get another asset though. I like the idea of TJ McConnell as a backup if we do lose Tyus for whatever reason. Brooks likely will cost more than 15m a year but I'm ok bringing him back even at fair market value. We need his defense unless we have a true upgrade. That leaves us trying to pick up someone around the edges and I think DFS or Royce would be great targets. With the new rules allowing us to use the MLE like a TPE, Royce would fit so maybe you can do a Konchar for Royce if we feel that is an upgrade worth pursuing.
As for your MLE list, Hart I would love to get as 2/3 depth. Wood is good but it worries me that teams keep wanting to get rid of him. Brown has not been what Denver hoped, but I like the idea of taking a flyer on him. White or DD as bench gunners especially if Tyus is gone isn't a bad plan. Thybulle would be lower on my list just because shooting has been such a big problem for us I don't know if we can cover for him, but if other options aren't there he is again someone to consider taking a flyer on.
I do agree that big game hunting is always the 1st option. Like if we could spin Tyus to the Rockets and then something like Lac 1st, Mem 2023 or another future 1st and 2024 GS 1st for OG then I think that opens us opportunity to move on from Brooks if we want and use the MLE to focus on a Jones replacement.
I kind of believe that Thybulle can be a league average 3pt shooter, so I am high on him. Especially in lineups that feature Kennard, we need enough defense on the floor to be able to keep him out there as much as possible.
Thybulle's defense is definitely why I would be good with a flyer on him. His offense and especially 3pt shooting would determine if the flyer pays off and we keep him around or not. If you are right and he can be league average, him on the MLE would be a steal. And yeah having him and Luke who you can swap between given the situation or to cover each other's weaknesses off the bench could be good.
Who all do you think Memphis may try for this offseason when going big game hunting?
Bridges - He has blown up since getting to the Nets. His value has increased since the trade deadline when we offered four 1sts so unfortunately he'll be all but untouchable.
Jaylen Brown - It likely will depend on how the playoffs go for Boston, but I could see him potentially being moved if Boston doesn't like their chances of resigning him. Brown not making All-NBA and thus not being Super-Max eligible would help us there. The problem is that you get one year with him until he is an UFA. I'm not sure if the extension rule changes will be enough or not to get a deal done so you may be giving up your future for a one year rental who then bolts. I still do it, but I don't feel great even with verbal assurances given how much it'll take to get a deal done. Plus Boston will want a win now player so it will have to be a three team deal with likely Dame, KAT, or Beal going to Boston.
OG - I don't know where Toronto's head is at on moving him, but you get him cheap for one year and then he gets very expensive. I'd do our 1st this year and then in 24 and 26 but probably not much more.
KAT - If Minny ends up getting knocked out of the play-in and into the lottery, do they consider trying to rebuild around Edwards? The Gobert trade looks worse by the day especially after the punch this afternoon. If they aren't liking their chances, maybe they look for a rebuilding package for him. He wouldn't be my personal target, but JJJ next to him would be a much better fit than Gobert. KAT seems to be better (not great) at playing center on defense. JJJ can do his usual defend the PF and roam role. And then both space the floor enough to give each other room to work in the paint. Again not my favorite target and unsure how likely it is he shakes loose but may be an option.
Dame - We have Ja so no thanks.
Beal - We have Bane so no thanks given his contract.
Luka - You move the moon for that guy but I don't think this is the summer he gets moved. I think it'll be next summer.
Kawhi or PG13 - Maybe if LAC get slaughtered in 4 games they consider moving one or both of their guys? Move one to us for a rebuilding package and use that package to go after Dame. They are injury prone and shorten your window of contention, but they are good and maybe attainable without losing Ja/Bane/JJJ.
DeRozan - Older guy again but could get him cheap. Salary matching may hurt some as I think you do Clarke and Tyus, but it gives you someone who can iso at the end of games.
LaVine - I have mixed feelings on him and he does have an injury history. Pretty expensive gamble.
Butler - I very much doubt he is available, but he would certainly be nice to have come playoffs.
NOP guy - Maybe someone shakes loose if NOP can go for a bigger fish they feel upgrades their team more. Long shot but you never know. Ingram and Zion both have injury histories that aren't great if they happen to be the ones shaking loose.
Brown seems like the mildly realistic yet best fit on that list though Bridges would be the dream. OG feels like the most realistic of those. A lot of those guys will ultimately not be available unless things go a certain fairly crazy way.
