Raw plus/minus for 93-94, 94-95, 95-96 seasons

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Re: Raw plus/minus for 93-94 season 

Post#41 » by ceiling raiser » Thu Sep 4, 2014 7:35 pm

colts18 wrote:
fpliii wrote:Pretty good. Turns out that prior to Kennedy becoming commissioner, a lot of things were informal disorganized. A few years into his tenure (Pollack said 1968), a couple key changes were made:

• teams held onto box scores for both home and away games (beforehand, the only copy was held by home teams; he noted that teams didn't always hold onto the individual box scores, and it was common to say, only maintain records of each player's totals against certain opponents)
• all teams had to publish media guides

At some point later, but prior to 79-80 (since Pollack decided to keep track of four-point plays starting that year, he noted), teams began to maintain play-by-plays. It seems from speaking with him that not every team did at the time, though by the mid-80s they did (starting with 87-88 at which point he semi-retired as PR director and took on a less demanding position with the organization time-wise, he and his team went through the physical play-by-plays for the dunks numbers, and calculated plus/minus for the Sixers; they also calculated stats for some players like average FG distance, which were great mentions on broadcasts).

The takeaway being that the league play-by-play goes back at least 10 years prior to the first digitalized records, though likely not back to the beginning of the league. I asked him if he still had copies of the old play-by-plays, and he said he's not sure if they're still in storage, but he's not very confident that they're still around (though other teams might have their own; Pollack noted that he had to request play-by-plays for other teams directly from the league office before they were available online). So the data could still be out there somewhere, in some form, from 87-88 through 95-96.


How long did he keep track of 76ers plus minus data?

Didn't get an explicit year, but he implied it was the same year as when he started recording dunks (87-88 season). I'll try and ask again, though I may just order an older Sixers guide (since they're pretty cheap on eBay) just to see what it contains.

The guy was incredibly lucid for 92 years old and really knows his stuff, but it seems he's not 100% certain about all the specifics, since he's been around the league for so long. :wink:
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Re: Raw plus/minus for 93-94 season 

Post#42 » by ceiling raiser » Thu Sep 4, 2014 7:47 pm

colts18 wrote:How long did he keep track of 76ers plus minus data?

3ball on ISH (formerly trainwreckog and mooncheese here) posted the plus/minus data for the Sixers for all the years available:

http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/showpo ... tcount=255

I filled the holes with 91-92, 94-95, 95-96. I think the 93-94 edition also has plus/minus for Sixers players/opponents, so I can upload those for consistency's sake (the league-wide plus/minus in that edition is only for players with 750 minutes).
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Re: Raw plus/minus for 93-94 season 

Post#43 » by colts18 » Thu Sep 4, 2014 9:12 pm

Based on the data that Fpliii provided, I was able to calculate some plus/minus data for Charles Barkley from 1988-1992

Offensive rating

Code: Select all

       On   Off   Net
1988   109.7   102.9   6.8
1989   115.3   104.7   10.6
1990   115.5   106.6   8.9
1991   112.4   100.5   11.9
1992   112.3   97.9   14.3


Defensive Rating (positive is bad, negative is good)

Code: Select all

       On   Off   Net
1988   110.6   109.2   1.4
1989   111.4   111.8   -0.4
1990   108.5   107.9   0.6
1991   109.3   106.2   3.1
1992   112.0   103.7   8.3


Code: Select all

       On   Off   Net
1988   -0.9   -6.3   5.4
1989   3.9   -7.1   11.0
1990   7.0   -1.3   8.3
1991   3.1   -5.7   8.8
1992   0.3   -5.7   6.0


Regressed RAPM adjusted for 2014 Variance

1988 2.40
1989 7.29
1990 7.73
1991 6.71
1992 5.45



Overall Barkley looks pretty good. His offense looks awesome. His defense looks pretty bad especially in his last 2 Philly years.
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Re: Raw plus/minus for 93-94 season 

Post#44 » by Dipper 13 » Thu Sep 4, 2014 9:16 pm

colts18 wrote:Overall Barkley looks pretty good. His offense looks awesome. His defense looks pretty bad especially in his last 2 Philly years.


He has said his last two years with the Sixers were miserable.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GwJJpqHZg30&t=16m37s
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Re: Raw plus/minus for 93-94 season 

Post#45 » by Dipper 13 » Thu Sep 4, 2014 9:40 pm

We can only imagine how good Barkley's 1993 data would look, considering the team offense was +5.3 (with K.J. missing 33 games) and the team defense was -1.3, for a net rating of +6.6.

In the 6 games Barkley missed in 1993, the Suns offense dropped to 103.1 (-4.9) and the defense also dropped to 107.3 (-0.7) for a net rating of -4.2
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Re: Raw plus/minus for 93-94 season 

Post#46 » by Double Clutch » Fri Sep 5, 2014 3:33 am

Great news fpliii.

Just found this info that I wanted to share. Apparently, David Robinson led the league in +/- in 1995 with Malone finishing second, Stockton 5th and Hornacek 11th.

Harvey Pollack, the longtime Philadelphia 76ers statistician - and overall collector of trivia - has invented a "plus-minus rating" to determine the most effective players in basketball. The system involves adding all the points scored by a player's own team when is on the floor and compare it with the points scored in the same stretch by the opposition. Thus, a player whose team scores more points is called a "plus player," while one who saw the opposition scoring more points is a "minus player."

For the 1994-95 season, Malone ranked second in the league with a plus-639 rating. He was second only to league-leader David Robinson, who had a plus-650 rating. Meanwhile, Stockton was fifth in the league with a plus-571 rating. Teammate Jeff Hornacek was 11th with a plus-530 rating.

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/4782 ... tml?pg=all

colts18 wrote:
I wouldn't be surprised if David Robinson beats out Michael Jordan in 96 plus/minus. I'm most excited about the 96 seasons. I want to see how MJ, Pippen, Rodman, DRob, and Shaq do in plus/minus.


Based on this source, Jordan was the league leader that year.

Beech has taken plus-minus data a step further by adjusting for team quality. While all the league leaders since McMillan have been perennial All-Stars (David Robinson in 1994-95; Michael Jordan in 1995-96 and 1996-97; Shaquille O'Neal in 1997-98, 1999-00 and 2001-02; Tim Duncan in 1998-99 and 2000-01 and Dirk Nowitzki in 2002-03 and 2003-04), the last-place finishers have included solid players like All-Stars Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Antawn Jamison. These players happened to play the most minutes on bad teams.
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Re: Raw plus/minus for 93-94 season 

Post#47 » by colts18 » Fri Sep 5, 2014 3:48 am

Double Clutch wrote:Great news fpliii.

Just found this info that I wanted to share. Apparently, David Robinson led the league in +/- in 1995 with Malone finishing second, Stockton 5th and Hornacek 11th.

Harvey Pollack, the longtime Philadelphia 76ers statistician - and overall collector of trivia - has invented a "plus-minus rating" to determine the most effective players in basketball. The system involves adding all the points scored by a player's own team when is on the floor and compare it with the points scored in the same stretch by the opposition. Thus, a player whose team scores more points is called a "plus player," while one who saw the opposition scoring more points is a "minus player."

For the 1994-95 season, Malone ranked second in the league with a plus-639 rating. He was second only to league-leader David Robinson, who had a plus-650 rating. Meanwhile, Stockton was fifth in the league with a plus-571 rating. Teammate Jeff Hornacek was 11th with a plus-530 rating.

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/4782 ... tml?pg=all

colts18 wrote:
I wouldn't be surprised if David Robinson beats out Michael Jordan in 96 plus/minus. I'm most excited about the 96 seasons. I want to see how MJ, Pippen, Rodman, DRob, and Shaq do in plus/minus.


Based on this source, Jordan was the league leader that year.

Beech has taken plus-minus data a step further by adjusting for team quality. While all the league leaders since McMillan have been perennial All-Stars (David Robinson in 1994-95; Michael Jordan in 1995-96 and 1996-97; Shaquille O'Neal in 1997-98, 1999-00 and 2001-02; Tim Duncan in 1998-99 and 2000-01 and Dirk Nowitzki in 2002-03 and 2003-04), the last-place finishers have included solid players like All-Stars Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Antawn Jamison. These players happened to play the most minutes on bad teams.


Great catch. Here is the plus/minus for those 3 players:

Code: Select all

   Robinson   Malone   Stockton
On   10.7   10.6   10.1
Off   -9.1   0.3   3.9
Net   19.8   10.2   6.2



Robinson looks awesome in this again. Robinson might be one of the most underrated players in history. He could be argued as a top 5 regular season player. Im not even sure that regular season MJ is any better than 92-96 Robinson.
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Raw plus/minus for 93-94 season 

Post#48 » by RSCD3_ » Fri Sep 5, 2014 3:50 am

Reading this thread about the discovery of lost plus minus numbers reminds me of watching national treasure


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Re: Raw plus/minus for 93-94 season 

Post#49 » by bondom34 » Fri Sep 5, 2014 5:48 am

RSCD3_ wrote:Reading this thread about the discovery of lost plus minus numbers reminds me of watching national treasure


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Re: Raw plus/minus for 93-94 season 

Post#50 » by G35 » Fri Sep 5, 2014 4:23 pm

colts18 wrote:
Double Clutch wrote:Great news fpliii.

Just found this info that I wanted to share. Apparently, David Robinson led the league in +/- in 1995 with Malone finishing second, Stockton 5th and Hornacek 11th.

Harvey Pollack, the longtime Philadelphia 76ers statistician - and overall collector of trivia - has invented a "plus-minus rating" to determine the most effective players in basketball. The system involves adding all the points scored by a player's own team when is on the floor and compare it with the points scored in the same stretch by the opposition. Thus, a player whose team scores more points is called a "plus player," while one who saw the opposition scoring more points is a "minus player."

For the 1994-95 season, Malone ranked second in the league with a plus-639 rating. He was second only to league-leader David Robinson, who had a plus-650 rating. Meanwhile, Stockton was fifth in the league with a plus-571 rating. Teammate Jeff Hornacek was 11th with a plus-530 rating.

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/4782 ... tml?pg=all

colts18 wrote:
I wouldn't be surprised if David Robinson beats out Michael Jordan in 96 plus/minus. I'm most excited about the 96 seasons. I want to see how MJ, Pippen, Rodman, DRob, and Shaq do in plus/minus.


Based on this source, Jordan was the league leader that year.

Beech has taken plus-minus data a step further by adjusting for team quality. While all the league leaders since McMillan have been perennial All-Stars (David Robinson in 1994-95; Michael Jordan in 1995-96 and 1996-97; Shaquille O'Neal in 1997-98, 1999-00 and 2001-02; Tim Duncan in 1998-99 and 2000-01 and Dirk Nowitzki in 2002-03 and 2003-04), the last-place finishers have included solid players like All-Stars Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Antawn Jamison. These players happened to play the most minutes on bad teams.


Great catch. Here is the plus/minus for those 3 players:

Code: Select all

   Robinson   Malone   Stockton
On   10.7   10.6   10.1
Off   -9.1   0.3   3.9
Net   19.8   10.2   6.2



Robinson looks awesome in this again. Robinson might be one of the most underrated players in history. He could be argued as a top 5 regular season player. Im not even sure that regular season MJ is any better than 92-96 Robinson.



Very true.....
I'm so tired of the typical......
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Re: Raw plus/minus for 93-94 season 

Post#51 » by ceiling raiser » Fri Sep 5, 2014 5:55 pm

Plot twist!

I messaged a seller on eBay for this item:

http://rover.ebay.com/rover/0/e11051.m43.l1123/7?euid=c86ec7ed700f438aa2d7272fef2564af&loc=http%3A%2F%2Fcgi.ebay.com%2Fws%2FeBayISAPI.dll%3FViewItem%26item%3D171441065154%26ssPageName%3DADME%3AX%3ARTQ%3AUS%3A1123

asking this question:

Hello,

Do any of these books contain plus/minus numbers for the Sixers players? I have the 88-89 guide which does, just wondering if any of these do as well.

Thanks


got this response:

Yes - all three guides contain stats on plus/minus. As you may know, Harvey Pollack was an amazing publicist and kept all kinds of stats. Thanks.

Hmmmmm...

So I have the 66-67 guide already (65-66 season), though it doesn't contain this data. However, the 81-82 guide (80-81), according to this seller, does indeed have plus/minus for the Sixers.
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Re: Raw plus/minus for 93-94 season 

Post#52 » by Dipper 13 » Fri Sep 5, 2014 6:07 pm

However, the 81-82 guide (80-81), according to this seller, does indeed have plus/minus for the Sixers.



It would be nice to see the 1981 plus/minus data (particularly on defense).


http://hoopshype.com/interviews/cunningham_friedman.htm

Nov 23, 2005

The 1980-81 Sixers were really one of the great defensive teams of all-time. That gets a little overlooked because of what happened in the playoffs (losing to Boston in the Eastern Conference finals). Talk a little about how great that team was defensively.

Billy Cunningham: I think something that I carried over from all of the coaches that I played under is that you have to remain consistent at the defensive end of the court. Offense is always going to be a situation where you are playing in spurts. That was an exceptional team defensively because we had Maurice Cheeks playing on the ball and he would pick up the point guard full court and pressure the ball. We had such quick forwards in Bobby Jones and Julius Erving that we would look to create turnovers with their great quickness and speed. Physically we weren’t as intimidating as a lot of teams but we relied a great deal on our quickness and our overall team concept on defense in terms of helping each other. With Caldwell Jones and Darryl Dawkins being back there – especially Caldwell, who had the ability to block shots and was such a smart defensive player – we were just a smart defensive team. We played the Boston Celtics 13 times that year between the regular season and the playoffs (splitting the regular season series 3-3 and losing the seventh game of the playoff series by one point).
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Re: Raw plus/minus for 93-94 season 

Post#53 » by ceiling raiser » Fri Sep 5, 2014 6:10 pm

Dipper 13 wrote:
However, the 81-82 guide (80-81), according to this seller, does indeed have plus/minus for the Sixers.



It would be nice to see the 1981 plus/minus data (particularly on defense).


http://hoopshype.com/interviews/cunningham_friedman.htm

Nov 23, 2005

The 1980-81 Sixers were really one of the great defensive teams of all-time. That gets a little overlooked because of what happened in the playoffs (losing to Boston in the Eastern Conference finals). Talk a little about how great that team was defensively.

Billy Cunningham: I think something that I carried over from all of the coaches that I played under is that you have to remain consistent at the defensive end of the court. Offense is always going to be a situation where you are playing in spurts. That was an exceptional team defensively because we had Maurice Cheeks playing on the ball and he would pick up the point guard full court and pressure the ball. We had such quick forwards in Bobby Jones and Julius Erving that we would look to create turnovers with their great quickness and speed. Physically we weren’t as intimidating as a lot of teams but we relied a great deal on our quickness and our overall team concept on defense in terms of helping each other. With Caldwell Jones and Darryl Dawkins being back there – especially Caldwell, who had the ability to block shots and was such a smart defensive player – we were just a smart defensive team. We played the Boston Celtics 13 times that year between the regular season and the playoffs (splitting the regular season series 3-3 and losing the seventh game of the playoff series by one point).

I sent a message to a user selling the 77-78 guide. Maybe I'm getting a bit greedy now, but it would be great if we could have plus/minus going back to Dr. J's first NBA season.
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Re: Raw plus/minus for 93-94 season 

Post#54 » by ronnymac2 » Fri Sep 5, 2014 7:13 pm

Dipper 13 wrote:
However, the 81-82 guide (80-81), according to this seller, does indeed have plus/minus for the Sixers.



It would be nice to see the 1981 plus/minus data (particularly on defense).


http://hoopshype.com/interviews/cunningham_friedman.htm

Nov 23, 2005

The 1980-81 Sixers were really one of the great defensive teams of all-time. That gets a little overlooked because of what happened in the playoffs (losing to Boston in the Eastern Conference finals). Talk a little about how great that team was defensively.

Billy Cunningham: I think something that I carried over from all of the coaches that I played under is that you have to remain consistent at the defensive end of the court. Offense is always going to be a situation where you are playing in spurts. That was an exceptional team defensively because we had Maurice Cheeks playing on the ball and he would pick up the point guard full court and pressure the ball. We had such quick forwards in Bobby Jones and Julius Erving that we would look to create turnovers with their great quickness and speed. Physically we weren’t as intimidating as a lot of teams but we relied a great deal on our quickness and our overall team concept on defense in terms of helping each other. With Caldwell Jones and Darryl Dawkins being back there – especially Caldwell, who had the ability to block shots and was such a smart defensive player – we were just a smart defensive team. We played the Boston Celtics 13 times that year between the regular season and the playoffs (splitting the regular season series 3-3 and losing the seventh game of the playoff series by one point).


Damn, Jones and Erving flying around with vigor, the two bigs inside, and Cheeks, one of the more underrated players of the 80s, stifling point guards and causing turnovers. That's a nice defensive build.

They were elite. A -6 defensive team (2nd in the league that year, just shy of PHX), and they led the league in eFG% Against. Not quite at the level of defensive dynasties like Ewing's Knicks and Duncan's Spurs, but on that next level of defensive dominance.
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Re: Raw plus/minus for 93-94 season 

Post#55 » by ceiling raiser » Sat Sep 6, 2014 3:50 am

Just heard back about the 77-78 guide (for 76-77 season, Doc's first in Philly and the NBA):

Hi-
I just checked and this book does include the plus/minus numbers who were asking about. Hope that helps. Have a good weekend!


So I ordered it, since I found a copy for pretty cheap. I already have the 66-67 guide so plus/minus doesn't go all the way back, but I'm gonna ask about guides from earlier seasons on eBay and see if they have plus/minus as well, or if the 77-78 guide was first.

Pretty cool stuff. Assuming every guide after has plus/minus as well, we can get complete numbers for Dr. J's, Moses's, and Barkley's tenures.
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Re: Raw plus/minus for 93-94 season 

Post#56 » by RSCD3_ » Sat Sep 6, 2014 4:46 am

fpliii wrote:Just heard back about the 77-78 guide (for 76-77 season, Doc's first in Philly and the NBA):

Hi-
I just checked and this book does include the plus/minus numbers who were asking about. Hope that helps. Have a good weekend!


So I ordered it, since I found a copy for pretty cheap. I already have the 66-67 guide so plus/minus doesn't go all the way back, but I'm gonna ask about guides from earlier seasons on eBay and see if they have plus/minus as well, or if the 77-78 guide was first.

Pretty cool stuff. Assuming every guide after has plus/minus as well, we can get complete numbers for Dr. J's, Moses's, and Barkley's tenures.


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Re: Raw plus/minus for 93-94 season 

Post#57 » by ceiling raiser » Sat Sep 6, 2014 4:51 am

RSCD3_ wrote:You are the Indiana Jones of this board



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I'm hoping the hole goes deeper but I have a feeling 77-78 (76-77 season) is the first edition to contain the data. I asked sellers putting up the 76-77 and 75-76 editions though, so hopefully I'm wrong. :)

It looks like by the mid 80s the Lakers (http://articles.latimes.com/1985-05-16/ ... ox-score/2) and Celtics (http://www.apbr.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3282) were using some form of plus/minus as well. Obviously all three teams were supremely talented, but it looks like they were ahead of the curve in this regard.
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Re: Raw plus/minus for 93-94 season 

Post#58 » by lorak » Sun Sep 7, 2014 11:26 am

fpliii wrote: I think the 93-94 edition also has plus/minus for Sixers players/opponents, so I can upload those for consistency's sake (the league-wide plus/minus in that edition is only for players with 750 minutes).


If that's not a problem, then please do it ;)
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Re: Raw plus/minus for 93-94 season 

Post#59 » by ceiling raiser » Sun Sep 7, 2014 6:05 pm

lorak wrote:
fpliii wrote: I think the 93-94 edition also has plus/minus for Sixers players/opponents, so I can upload those for consistency's sake (the league-wide plus/minus in that edition is only for players with 750 minutes).


If that's not a problem, then please do it ;)

Here you go:

http://i57.tinypic.com/qp2art.jpg
http://i62.tinypic.com/2mdkth5.jpg

I'm not sure about the utility of plus/minus for Sixers' opponents, which consists of something like 2-4 games generally. The Sixers' players numbers are very interesting though.
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Re: Raw plus/minus for 93-94 season 

Post#60 » by lorak » Sun Sep 7, 2014 8:10 pm

Thx fpliii!

-------
re: Stockton vs Malone.
Substitution patterns matter a lot when we are dealing with raw +/-. And while Malone's and Stockton's on court +/- is quite close (7.3 vs 6.3), the difference comes from off court numbers (-10.3 vs -1.0). And it's perfectly explained by how Utah's rotation looked: situation with Stockton on the bench and Malone on the floor occurred more often than the other way around. That obviously affected theirs off court numbers, because of course Jazz were playing better with no Stockton but Malone on the floor (Stockton's off sample), than with them both off the floor (Malone's off sample). Another factor, but with minor impact here, is that Malone probably played more garbage time minutes. That's why we need to be very careful with raw +/- and until we get RAPM, the +/- data doesn't say lot, especially in such cases.

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