Statistical analysis on why Larry Bird is overrated

[AbeVigodaLive]

No telling how crazy good his splits would of been in this era vs an era where the 3 point line was relatively new.

Not a bad question, though if his 3PA rate went up he would actually be more likely than have a lower FG% even though his actual scoring efficiency might be better. In a league with higher 3PA rates, the 50 part of that 50/40/90 split is actually not that relevant. Curry could hit that mark a lot if he was taking half as many 3PA, but that wouldn't benefit winning more.

I agree with the arbitrary nature of the spilt, I think the 50/40/90 spilt was more relevant pre 2000s vs the 3 friendly lg now.

My thinking is Bird might finish at the basket slightly better with more spacing and replace most of his long mid range 2s with 3 pointers.

Most elite talent transcends eras.

Bird is one guy who I think would definitely do well in this era offensively. I mean, at the very least, he'd be almost as good as Kelly Olynyk or Ryan Anderson, right?

[mcmurphy]

1981 - Bird averaged 15 PPG on less than 42% shooting in finals and celtics offense dropped to 106 offensive rating from its regular season 108 offensive rating. Luckily for celtics, rockets posted an embarrassing offensive rating of 95.

1982/1983 - Bird spends the next two playoff years in 1982 and 83 posting offensive ratings of 103 and 102 with a TS of just 47%

1984 - Regular season he has a TS of 55% which is just 0.9 above average at the time. He has a good playoff run but faces a 1 man Knicks team, a bucks team that struggled in playoffs and an average defensive team Lakers in the finals.

1985 - Bird goes against the 7th ranked defensive in the finals and manages to have a 52% TS which is below even league average at the time! Bird's finals TS was a 5% drop from his regular season. Bird's entire playoff run TS was at just 53.6% TS which was below league average at the time. His playoff run also had an underwhelming 5.6 BPM.

1986 - He sweeps a Sidney Moncrief/Don Nelson team in the ECF. Moncrief and Nelson were the 80s version of Harden and D'antoni, you know sooner or later they are going to choke. Moncrief only plays 3 games. In the finals, Kevin McHale is celtics best scorer at 25.8 PPG 63% TS to Larry Bird's 24.0 PPG 58% TS. Bird has the overwhelming favorite team and he wins in a similar fashion to Stephen Curry around 2015-2018 era.

1986/1987 - He posts just a 5.8 BPM in the playoffs, this is the second time in three years where he was less than 6 BPM during a playoff run. In the east finals vs pistons his eFG% drops to 50% which is by over 5% to his reg season and McHale has to carry him at 63% eFG%. In the finals he faces Lakers and his eFG% now drops to a massive level of -9 compared to his regular season and has a worse than league average TS. Once again, he's not even facing an elite defense at Lakers are 7th ranked.

1987/88 - His playoff run he had a 53.8 TS which is just league average at the time. 6.2 BPM that's nothing to brag about. His team struggles in the 2nd round vs a 14th ranked defense team hawks and goes 7 games, bird posts a 112 offensive rating with a 58% TS and is carried by McHale once again at an 134 offensive rating and 70% TS. In the east finals vs pistons, he embarrasses himself averaging less than 20 PPG on worse than 45% TS and a 36% eFG%.

After that, his back went out on him and than he went home. That makes you a goat level player? Overrated is how I see it. Thoughts?

Name me another rookie that took the team of previous year (WITHOUT main addiction) from 29 wins to 61 wins and a Conference Final?
It should be simple for a overrated player...
Tell me only another player... I wait...

In the first 9 Bird's season Celtics averaged 61.1 wins and in the 1988-89 only 42...
who knows why ... and yet they had McHale, Parish, DJ, Ainge...

If anything, Larry Bird is underrated. He is often seen as the worse part of the Magic and Bird duopoly, but let me tell you, before Bird messed up his back and broke down, he was better than Magic. Of course, longevity, durability and remaining healthy are part of ones' greatness and legacy, but Larry arguably played too hard. I can accept looking at Magic having the better career, I can not accept Magic being the better player. Bird was a special kind of lethal, and, from an opponents view, probably the most demoralizing player I have seen.

this comment from a Laker fan should say something at OP

[kobe_vs_jordan]

Not a bad question, though if his 3PA rate went up he would actually be more likely than have a lower FG% even though his actual scoring efficiency might be better. In a league with higher 3PA rates, the 50 part of that 50/40/90 split is actually not that relevant. Curry could hit that mark a lot if he was taking half as many 3PA, but that wouldn't benefit winning more.

I agree with the arbitrary nature of the spilt, I think the 50/40/90 spilt was more relevant pre 2000s vs the 3 friendly lg now.

My thinking is Bird might finish at the basket slightly better with more spacing and replace most of his long mid range 2s with 3 pointers.

Most elite talent transcends eras.

Bird is one guy who I think would definitely do well in this era offensively. I mean, at the very least, he'd be almost as good as Kelly Olynyk or Ryan Anderson, right?

Transcending an era doesn't mean you better than 4 eras later. Bird was a GOAT candidate of his era. Anderson or Olynk would never be confused with that type of recognition .

[AbeVigodaLive]

I agree with the arbitrary nature of the spilt, I think the 50/40/90 spilt was more relevant pre 2000s vs the 3 friendly lg now.

My thinking is Bird might finish at the basket slightly better with more spacing and replace most of his long mid range 2s with 3 pointers.

Most elite talent transcends eras.

Bird is one guy who I think would definitely do well in this era offensively. I mean, at the very least, he'd be almost as good as Kelly Olynyk or Ryan Anderson, right?

Transcending an era doesn't mean you better than 4 eras later. Bird was a GOAT candidate of his era. Anderson or Olynk would never be confused with that type of recognition .

I might have been slightly facetious with those comparisons.

Bird was a taller, creative player with extraordinary passing ability and an incredible accurate shot. I don't know if he'd have been better... probably not.

But damn, he'd be fun to watch in this era. I think he'd do very well in it. I couldn't say the same about everybody from that era.

[Galloisdaman]

I hated Bird. He tormented me. My favorite teams were the Knicks and anyone playing Bird's Celtics. With that said I would still rather have Bird on my team in the 4th quarter than any player not named Jordan and that includes Lebron who looks like he takes free throw lessons from Shaq. Bird over rated? I doubt many folks that played against him would say that. If he is over rated it is just because he did so many amazing things that people are still amazed. The guy was crazy good. In my top 5 every time.

[Galloisdaman]

Not a bad question, though if his 3PA rate went up he would actually be more likely than have a lower FG% even though his actual scoring efficiency might be better. In a league with higher 3PA rates, the 50 part of that 50/40/90 split is actually not that relevant. Curry could hit that mark a lot if he was taking half as many 3PA, but that wouldn't benefit winning more.

I agree with the arbitrary nature of the spilt, I think the 50/40/90 spilt was more relevant pre 2000s vs the 3 friendly lg now.

My thinking is Bird might finish at the basket slightly better with more spacing and replace most of his long mid range 2s with 3 pointers.

Most elite talent transcends eras.

Bird is one guy who I think would definitely do well in this era offensively. I mean, at the very least, he'd be almost as good as Kelly Olynyk or Ryan Anderson, right?

LOL Ryan Anderson. Comparing Bird and Ryan Anderson is like comparing a Hyundai and a Ferrari as cars. No offense to Ryan Anderson.

[Sedale Threatt]

Duncan is massively better on defense than bird, you should know that. I'm fine with bird being on the level of Wade/Robinson/Dr J.

Bird's career playoff DBPM was 3.4. Duncan's was 4.1 and had a career playoff BPM of 5.9.
According to the same stats you quote against Bird, Bird was better on offense by a bigger margin than Duncan was better on defense. Hence the higher BPM.

Or do you only want to use advanced stats when they support your claim? I'd take Duncan over Bird, but Larry is still fringe top 10.

Bird also made 3 all defensive 2nd teams on top of the solid defensive stats, so the notion that he was some crap defender/one dimensional player is wrong.

Bird never anchored top 3 defensive teams for his entire prime like Duncan did, that's taking the DBPM way out of context. OBPM is a much more valuable stat than DBPM when evaluating great players, otherwise someone like Pippen would be ranked much higher.

Bird was an average defender who had great defenders on his team like Dennis, McHale, Parish.

Bird today would get exposed defensively because on pick and roll with the switches he would get isolated on a lot more.

Well hey, isn't that convenient. This is like the third different thread I've seen you start where you cherry-pick certain advance measures to present the illusion of objectivity, when in fact you're just pushing an agenda.

I would never say that Bird was a lock down defender, or anything close to an anchor. But in terms of team defense, and playing passing lanes, and simply being in the right place in the right time, he was excellent. That was the eye test, and pretty much everything we have in terms of metrics supports that. He was a plus-defender in 12 of his 13 seasons per DBPM, with the lone exception coming when he was limited to 6 games in 88-89. He had quality def. ratings throughout his 20s, during which time the Celtics routinely had Top 10 defenses. He even led the league in def. win shares four times.

None of that happens just because you had good teammates; you're doing your job at an extremely high level in your own right.

[mcgrady_1]

I believe Larry Bird would be even better in this era.

I don't feel the same way with Kawhi in the 80's or 90's.
He gonna get hurt vs Celtics or Pistons. Those guys didn't mess around.

[eagereyez]

You need to take (or retake) stats 101 if you think referencing bball ref stats qualifies as a statistical analysis.

[Fencer reregistered]

... bird's overrated stuff..

Who's your top 10 then? Anyone can be "overrated" so where do you put him

Peaks I say Jordan wilt kareem duncan magic lebron hakeem shaq kawhi Russell are all clearly better than Bird.

Peak Magic was a lot better than peak Bird at leading the break and a little better at halfcourt passing. Peak Bird was a lot better than peak Magic at shooting and defense, somewhat better at rebounding, and probably a little better at outlet passing as well.

[Perishable517]

Bird's career playoff DBPM was 3.4. Duncan's was 4.1 and had a career playoff BPM of 5.9.
According to the same stats you quote against Bird, Bird was better on offense by a bigger margin than Duncan was better on defense. Hence the higher BPM.

Or do you only want to use advanced stats when they support your claim? I'd take Duncan over Bird, but Larry is still fringe top 10.

Bird also made 3 all defensive 2nd teams on top of the solid defensive stats, so the notion that he was some crap defender/one dimensional player is wrong.

Bird never anchored top 3 defensive teams for his entire prime like Duncan did, that's taking the DBPM way out of context. OBPM is a much more valuable stat than DBPM when evaluating great players, otherwise someone like Pippen would be ranked much higher.

Bird was an average defender who had great defenders on his team like Dennis, McHale, Parish.

Bird today would get exposed defensively because on pick and roll with the switches he would get isolated on a lot more.

Well hey, isn't that convenient. This is like the third different thread I've seen you start where you cherry-pick certain advance measures to present the illusion of objectivity, when in fact you're just pushing an agenda.

I would never say that Bird was a lock down defender, or anything close to an anchor. But in terms of team defense, and playing passing lanes, and simply being in the right place in the right time, he was excellent. That was the eye test, and pretty much everything we have in terms of metrics supports that. He was a plus-defender in 12 of his 13 seasons per DBPM, with the lone exception coming when he was limited to 6 games in 88-89. He had quality def. ratings throughout his 20s, during which time the Celtics routinely had Top 10 defenses. He even led the league in def. win shares four times.

None of that happens just because you had good teammates; you're doing your job at an extremely high level in your own right.

Watch on YouTube

[Dr Positivity]

I think Bird is probably a slightly overrated scorer, he is a great shooter but is not as great at slashing as some peers like Jordan and Lebron, plus he benefitted from weaker defenders. The 80s were overall insane for SF scoring and he was one of many guys who put up points, I don’t think he was clearly the best SF scorer when some other players like King, Nique, Dantley, English, etc. are out there. However is all around game is phenomenal as he was an all-defense player, amazing rebounder and all time great passer for his position.

[joshfarc86]

I just think it's funny......

Take any superstar player and 1st scoring option on a contending team from any era and their TS% usually takes a little hit from regular season to the playoffs... often because they are in the playoffs facing the better defensive teams and also being double/triple teamed a ton more than the regular season.

Also find it funny you compare a wing (Bird) and his TS% to McHale (a PF/C).

Shaqs TS% was better than Kobe's every year of his career so Kobe is garbage! (joke too soon?)

And again, trying to downplay certain things or discarding them is entirely too funny. Like you saying "Bird put these numbers up against a particulary not good defensive team that was ranked 7th in the NBA". Ranked 7th means above average (possibly even means good) in a league of 25(?) teams. You can give credit where and when it is due.

If anything you've simply reaffirmed to me that Bird was as great as he was, maybe even underrated. McHale is also extremely underrated... and he definitely benifited from Bird getting double teamed and having elite passing skills in many playoff series.

OTHER STATS YOU FAILED TO MENTION:

-In 80, 81,84, 87 were years this offensive juggernaut was #1 in DEFENSIVE Win Shares in the entire league..... and every other year in the 80's he was top 10 (except 88 he was 18th and 89 he was 16th)

-From 1982 to 1987 he was RANKED #1 OVERALL in BOX PLUS MINUS (higher than Magic and others, usually directly correlated to the best player/s in the league)

-Through the entire decade of the 1980's he was Top 15 in Defensive Win Shares (you simply didn't even discuss his defensive stats)

-From 82 through 88 he was Top 3 in PER every year..... mind you this is regular season.... only the greats lead the NBA in PER two years in a row

-From 83 to 87 he was #1 Ranked Overall in VORP in the playoffs and Top 3 regular season from 80 to 88

-He has career Playoff averages of 1.8 steals a game and 0.9 blocks while putting up 23.8 points, 10.3 rebounds and 6.5 assists in 164 games played, all numbers eerily similar to a Lebron James playoff career in 164 playoff games.... IDENTICAL basically

-Playoff carrer 47%FG being the number 1 option (only 2.5% lower than his 49.6%FG regular season, not any significant droppage, even Lebron is +1% FG percentage points lower from regular season to the playoffs).

-One clutch game example would be closing off the Rockets in the 86 NBA Finals game 6 with 29pts, 11reb, 12ast, 3stl, on 8/17FG.



Doing a quick glance analyzing Bird and also comparing him to Lebron and their current 164 playoff games played I am leaving this thread now with more respect to Bird than I ever have. He truly was the whole package on both ends of the floor and continues to be a top10 player all time (regular season and playoffs) and one of the best regular season multi-time MVP's as well as muli-time Playoff NBA FInals MVP.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=1&player_id1_hint=Larry+Bird&player_id1_select=Larry+Bird&y1=1992&player_id1=birdla01&idx=players&player_id2_hint=LeBron+James&player_id2_select=LeBron+James&y2=2020&player_id2=jamesle01&idx=players&player_id3_hint=Kobe+Bryant&player_id3_select=Kobe+Bryant&y3=2016&player_id3=bryanko01&idx=players&player_id4_hint=Magic+Johnson&player_id4_select=Magic+Johnson&y4=1996&player_id4=johnsma02&idx=players&player_id5_hint=Michael+Jordan&player_id5_select=Michael+Jordan&y5=2003&player_id5=jordami01&idx=players&player_id6_hint=Scottie+Pippen&player_id6_select=Scottie+Pippen&y6=2004&player_id6=pippesc01&idx=players