Opponent Shooting Luck

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ijspeelman
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Opponent Shooting Luck 

Post#1 » by ijspeelman » Mon Mar 20, 2023 6:46 pm

I am working on a project to show that the Cavs opponent shooting luck has been incredibly poor throughout the season.

To start, I just looked at how many wide open shots a team gives up per 100 possessions and the % the opponent shoots on those shots. When I presented it to Cavs fans, they had a few gripes. This included that we don't know who shot these wide open shots (they could be better shooters than the norm) and we do not know where these shots are coming from. At that time, I checked the players and not where they were coming from as the play data was more readily available (the Cavs were not giving more wide open shots than expected to above avg shooters).

Today I decided to just pull data on opponent corner shooting, but there is no automatic way to find wide open corner threes allowed and their %. My plan is to manually go through some 604 attempts and count out which ones were wide open (defined as 6+ feet of space allowed).

Here are the stats (not including wide open corner threes) that I have accumulated today.

Image

Let me know if you have any thoughts.
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Re: Opponent Shooting Luck 

Post#2 » by pdevos » Fri May 5, 2023 12:47 am

I like that thought process.

One thing this data can't tell us WHO is getting those WIDE OPEN UNcontested 3s.

Like, if the Celtics leave Embiid open to shoot an uncontested 3P shot that probably is much different than leaving Niang or Maxey wide open for a 3P shot. I realize this would have to be a different data set to unearth this and probably has to be the shotchart data from NBAdotcom.

Warriors Shooting by Zone
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/shooting?DistanceRange=By%20Zone&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612744&dir=D&sort=Corner%203%20FGA

corner 3s:
Curry: 60%
Klay: 40%
Poole: 34%
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Re: Opponent Shooting Luck 

Post#3 » by ijspeelman » Fri May 5, 2023 1:27 pm

pdevos wrote:I like that thought process.

One thing this data can't tell us WHO is getting those WIDE OPEN UNcontested 3s.

Like, if the Celtics leave Embiid open to shoot an uncontested 3P shot that probably is much different than leaving Niang or Maxey wide open for a 3P shot. I realize this would have to be a different data set to unearth this and probably has to be the shotchart data from NBAdotcom.

Warriors Shooting by Zone
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/shooting?DistanceRange=By%20Zone&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612744&dir=D&sort=Corner%203%20FGA

corner 3s:
Curry: 60%
Klay: 40%
Poole: 34%


I actually did go through before posting this a few months back and took a sample of all players with wide open shots during our worst shooting luck 15 games. I found that these players generally punched way above their weight and the Cavs defensive rating was something like 3-5 points better if they hit their shots at their normal average.

Image

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