Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing

[noworriesinmd]

Something else to keep in mind: folks are heavily focused on how bad the bench is. And, the bench IS awful. But, the starting lineup is mediocre too. So, the Wizards have an average (well, slightly below average, group of starters), and a bad bench.

Quite the roster Grunfeld assembled.

We're 21-22, meaning we are average. Have we had an especially easy schedule? If so, then I suppose you may be right.

But, if we've had an average schedule (i.e. our opponents are .500 overall on the season), then we can't have an "average group of starters and a bad bench."

Right?

According to ESPN we have the 26th hardest schedule in the NBA so far
http://espn.go.com/nba/stats/rpi/_/sort/SOS

According to DeadSpin (cooler chart) We had the 20th hardest schedule so far, the rest of the schedule is the 27th ranked schedule).
http://regressing.deadspin.com/heres-ev ... 1502304453
A quick read makes me believe the slope plays a role in evaluating a team.

[Nivek]

Something else to keep in mind: folks are heavily focused on how bad the bench is. And, the bench IS awful. But, the starting lineup is mediocre too. So, the Wizards have an average (well, slightly below average, group of starters), and a bad bench.

Quite the roster Grunfeld assembled.

We're 21-22, meaning we are average. Have we had an especially easy schedule? If so, then I suppose you may be right.

But, if we've had an average schedule (i.e. our opponents are .500 overall on the season), then we can't have an "average group of starters and a bad bench."

Right?

Your reasoning is correct, but...according to basketball-reference's strength of schedule measure, the Wizards have played the league's 4th easiest schedule thus far. They're 17th in scoring margin (at -0.60)

That said, I haven't run numbers on benches to compare the quality of the Wizards' bench to the rest of the league. When I looked at starters, I found the Wizards were 15th overall, just a shade below the league average in production from starters. So, their bench could be somewhere in the middle, especially since Wittman went to the tighter rotation. I should be able to take a look at this pretty easily. Maybe later today.

[verbal8]

I don't visit the other teams message boards much, but I bet EG excels at having the most posts in his "Countdown to <name of GM> firing thread".

[payitforward]

Something else to keep in mind: folks are heavily focused on how bad the bench is. And, the bench IS awful. But, the starting lineup is mediocre too. So, the Wizards have an average (well, slightly below average, group of starters), and a bad bench.

Quite the roster Grunfeld assembled.

We're 21-22, meaning we are average. Have we had an especially easy schedule? If so, then I suppose you may be right.

But, if we've had an average schedule (i.e. our opponents are .500 overall on the season), then we can't have an "average group of starters and a bad bench."

Right?

Your reasoning is correct, but...according to basketball-reference's strength of schedule measure, the Wizards have played the league's 4th easiest schedule thus far. They're 17th in scoring margin (at -0.60)

That said, I haven't run numbers on benches to compare the quality of the Wizards' bench to the rest of the league. When I looked at starters, I found the Wizards were 15th overall, just a shade below the league average in production from starters. So, their bench could be somewhere in the middle, especially since Wittman went to the tighter rotation. I should be able to take a look at this pretty easily. Maybe later today.

In a way, even more interesting would be to know how our strength of schedule looks for the rest of the season (based on opponents' current records, obviously -- might change some).

Who knows? Maybe it gets easier!!

[Zonkerbl]

So if we've had an easy schedule and our starters are average, that must mean that the reason we have not been able to exceed .500, despite the easy schedule, is the weakness of our bench.

Sad that our starters aren't even above average. That is just flat out depressing.

[Nivek]

We're 21-22, meaning we are average. Have we had an especially easy schedule? If so, then I suppose you may be right.

But, if we've had an average schedule (i.e. our opponents are .500 overall on the season), then we can't have an "average group of starters and a bad bench."

Right?

Your reasoning is correct, but...according to basketball-reference's strength of schedule measure, the Wizards have played the league's 4th easiest schedule thus far. They're 17th in scoring margin (at -0.60)

That said, I haven't run numbers on benches to compare the quality of the Wizards' bench to the rest of the league. When I looked at starters, I found the Wizards were 15th overall, just a shade below the league average in production from starters. So, their bench could be somewhere in the middle, especially since Wittman went to the tighter rotation. I should be able to take a look at this pretty easily. Maybe later today.

In a way, even more interesting would be to know how our strength of schedule looks for the rest of the season (based on opponents' current records, obviously -- might change some).

Who knows? Maybe it gets easier!!

So, I did take a look at the relative quality of the Wizards starters and bench.

What I found: the starting lineup ranks 14th. Their bench ranks 15th.

[Zonkerbl]

Well yeah. Martell Webster and Booker are adequate bench players.

I guess in our minds our bench is Webster, Booker, Maynor, Temple and Kevin Seraphin.

I'm sure if you took the PPAs of the first person off the bench at each position, we'd have a much lower ranking.

[Zonkerbl]

Holy cow, Jan Vesely is at 72?!?!?!?!? IS IT THE APOCALYPSE????

[Zonkerbl]

So what's the average PPA of an all-star starter? I see John only merits about 143.

[tontoz]

■Minnesota has improved, but continues its decades-long practice of not putting an adequate roster around a high-quality PF named Kevin.

Only a guy named Kevin would think of that.

[hands11]

Your reasoning is correct, but...according to basketball-reference's strength of schedule measure, the Wizards have played the league's 4th easiest schedule thus far. They're 17th in scoring margin (at -0.60)

That said, I haven't run numbers on benches to compare the quality of the Wizards' bench to the rest of the league. When I looked at starters, I found the Wizards were 15th overall, just a shade below the league average in production from starters. So, their bench could be somewhere in the middle, especially since Wittman went to the tighter rotation. I should be able to take a look at this pretty easily. Maybe later today.

In a way, even more interesting would be to know how our strength of schedule looks for the rest of the season (based on opponents' current records, obviously -- might change some).

Who knows? Maybe it gets easier!!

So, I did take a look at the relative quality of the Wizards starters and bench.

What I found: the starting lineup ranks 14th. Their bench ranks 15th.

Cool. You did PPA for all the Wizards. I had been wanting to see that. Thanks.

[payitforward]

Your reasoning is correct, but...according to basketball-reference's strength of schedule measure, the Wizards have played the league's 4th easiest schedule thus far. They're 17th in scoring margin (at -0.60)

That said, I haven't run numbers on benches to compare the quality of the Wizards' bench to the rest of the league. When I looked at starters, I found the Wizards were 15th overall, just a shade below the league average in production from starters. So, their bench could be somewhere in the middle, especially since Wittman went to the tighter rotation. I should be able to take a look at this pretty easily. Maybe later today.

In a way, even more interesting would be to know how our strength of schedule looks for the rest of the season (based on opponents' current records, obviously -- might change some).

Who knows? Maybe it gets easier!!

So, I did take a look at the relative quality of the Wizards starters and bench.

What I found: the starting lineup ranks 14th. Their bench ranks 15th.

Two responses:

1. Starters and bench 14th and 15th, 4th easiest schedule so far, record of 21-22. Sorry, but this should make you wonder just how well your PPA metric really does correlate to wins/losses. And...

2. Forget all that -- hey everybody, Kevin wrote a novel; it's his first, and you can download the first chapter for free at http://kevinbroom.com/no-in-between-kevin-broom/, and I read it, and it's good! Are those the things you wanted me to say, Kevin?

I'm sure -- convinced, it's solid!, no problem -- that there will be a discount coupon for us here. He probably just hasn't gotten to letting us know -- no problem, Kev. Where's that coupon?

Also, today being January 28 and you saying you are publishing in January, where's the rest of the novel? Dude, take your time -- where is it?

[tontoz]

1. Starters and bench 14th and 15th, 4th easiest schedule so far, record of 21-22. Sorry, but this should make you wonder just how well your PPA metric really does correlate to wins/losses.

I don't think PPA takes into account strength of schedule. Since both the starters and the bench rate as average then it makes sense that their record is roughly .500.

[keynote]

Our board's countdown thread for the Blessed Event is going to reach 100 pages.

That's a very, very sad thing.

[hands11]

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/23 ... -Of-Season


Suns-Sign-Leandro-Barbosa-For-Remainder-Of-Season

Well done EG. Well done.

Add him to the list of players we had that could have helped that we don't have for no good reason.

[TGW]

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/231693/Suns-Sign-Leandro-Barbosa-For-Remainder-Of-Season


Suns-Sign-Leandro-Barbosa-For-Remainder-Of-Season

Well done EG. Well done.

Add him to the list of players we had that could have helped that we don't have for no good reason.

Welcome to the darkside, brother.

[tontoz]

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/231693/Suns-Sign-Leandro-Barbosa-For-Remainder-Of-Season


Suns-Sign-Leandro-Barbosa-For-Remainder-Of-Season

Well done EG. Well done.

Add him to the list of players we had that could have helped that we don't have for no good reason.

Welcome to the darkside, brother.

It is never too late to do the right thing.

IBTL

You guys should push this to 101 pages just to annoy nate. I am too tired to stay up tonight.

[closg00]

See ya on the other side, this thread will burn-on.

[Nivek]

In a way, even more interesting would be to know how our strength of schedule looks for the rest of the season (based on opponents' current records, obviously -- might change some).

Who knows? Maybe it gets easier!!

So, I did take a look at the relative quality of the Wizards starters and bench.

What I found: the starting lineup ranks 14th. Their bench ranks 15th.

Two responses:

1. Starters and bench 14th and 15th, 4th easiest schedule so far, record of 21-22. Sorry, but this should make you wonder just how well your PPA metric really does correlate to wins/losses. And...

I always wonder about PPA and how it describes winning. So far this season, the team-level correlation between PPA and scoring margin is 0.90, which is lower than normal. Last season, it was 0.94. Same in 2011-12. Going back through the years, the correlation ranges from 0.90 to 0.96 season to season. Average is 0.94.

2. Forget all that -- hey everybody, Kevin wrote a novel; it's his first, and you can download the first chapter for free at http://kevinbroom.com/no-in-between-kevin-broom/, and I read it, and it's good! Are those the things you wanted me to say, Kevin?

I'm sure -- convinced, it's solid!, no problem -- that there will be a discount coupon for us here. He probably just hasn't gotten to letting us know -- no problem, Kev. Where's that coupon?

Also, today being January 28 and you saying you are publishing in January, where's the rest of the novel? Dude, take your time -- where is it?

Discount?

Discount?!

I've been dropping pearls for FREE here for years! And now you want a discount?!

Actually, yes there will be. A discount, I mean. Will post details when the book goes live, which looks like it'll be next week.

Thanks very much for the kind words about the first chapter. Glad you enjoyed. Hopefully the rest won't disappoint.

Now if I could just get another million or so folks to like it...

[verbal8]

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/231693/Suns-Sign-Leandro-Barbosa-For-Remainder-Of-Season


Suns-Sign-Leandro-Barbosa-For-Remainder-Of-Season

Well done EG. Well done.

Add him to the list of players we had that could have helped that we don't have for no good reason.

Welcome to the darkside, brother.

It is never too late to do the right thing.

IBTL

You guys should push this to 101 pages just to annoy nate. I am too tired to stay up tonight.

We need to get milellie111 to post on this thread. It will quickly blow past 101 pages. Or maybe his thread should just be merged into this one.