2013-2014 Wizard's lineup

[hands11]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/wi ... story.html

“We’re gonna do damage next year,” Porter said on a conference call with reporters. “I already know what they [Wall and Beal] bring to the table. All I do is plug myself in there. It’s gonna be fun.”

The big guys will have to keep up. Washington needs center Nene to play in more than 61 games, which was his total last season. In the final year of his contract, center-power forward Emeka Okafor should be highly motivated. Promising power forward Kevin Seraphin took a step backward. Next season, he’ll have to show he’s getting it. Still, despite some questions, the Wizards have a whole lot to feel good about.

For the first time in so long, Washington’s NBA franchise has talent, depth and real promise. It’s a new day. Don’t be surprised if it’s a very bright one.

..

Nice quote by porter. Should be fun as we get to hear more from Beal and Wittman more. Summer ball is around the corner.

Ves is back in CA.

[Knighthonor]

I hope Randy gets creative. There will be scenarios where a Wall-Beal-Webster-Ariza-Porter lineup could work. That would be fun.

That would be a man handling unless porter builds some serious muscles. Hope he a gym rat

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Well just looking at the overall roster as-is, with no outside free agents, or trades...


Porter steps in Cartier Martin's spot, Rice takes Crawford's (Collins) place.

I would keep Webster definitely, as well as Price. Then I'd also look at retaining Temple and Barbosa.

I would force feed Vesely and try to make him a backup center, it's his only chance at having any value. Same with Singleton as a stretch 4.

Okafor, Seraphin, Vesely
Nene, Booker, Singleton
Ariza, Webster, Porter
Beal, Barbosa, Rice
Wall, Price, Temple

With some guys of course able to move around, Nene to center, Webster to SG, etc. May not be ideal but it's a do-able 15.

[Liverbird]

I wouldn't resign Barbosa tbh. I think we have enough depth at the wing.

My preference would be to package Ariza, Booker, Singleton for a combination of a vet PG and PF/C. Unleash Jan!

[hands11]

I wouldn't resign Barbosa tbh. I think we have enough depth at the wing.

My preference would be to package Ariza, Booker, Singleton for a combination of a vet PG and PF/C. Unleash Jan!

I think Ves is already unleashed.

He has an open door to be the back up PF vs Kevin S. In the NBA, you don't get any more of a green light then that if you haven't earned it.

Nene and Okafor can split the center minutes. That's solid center depth and it keeps both fresh. Plus Nene will get some minutes at PF. Okafor averaged 26 mins a game last year. 22 at center for Nene, and 5 at PF. The other 43 go to Trevor A, Ves, Kevin and Otto. If they can't do it, you bump Okafor minutes up some at center and bump Nenes up more at PF until they can.

Its a competition between Ves and Kevin for PF minutes. Nene and Okafor shouldn't get played more then 26 min each if they don't have to. Save their legs for the playoffs.

What they need is the right PG to run that second group.

[hands11]

Well just looking at the overall roster as-is, with no outside free agents, or trades...


Porter steps in Cartier Martin's spot, Rice takes Crawford's (Collins) place.

I would keep Webster definitely, as well as Price. Then I'd also look at retaining Temple and Barbosa.

I would force feed Vesely and try to make him a backup center, it's his only chance at having any value. Same with Singleton as a stretch 4.

Okafor, Seraphin, Vesely
Nene, Booker, Singleton
Ariza, Webster, Porter
Beal, Barbosa, Rice
Wall, Price, Temple

With some guys of course able to move around, Nene to center, Webster to SG, etc. May not be ideal but it's a do-able 15.

First off, Webster was the starting SF last year not Trevor A.
Second, Otto is not going to be 3rd in the depth chart.
And if they sign Webster, I very much doubt they sign Barbosa as well.

First thing we need to do is see what Ves shows in summer league. If he can start to turn things around there, there is some hope he get get his head right. Kevin would be smart to show up for summer ball as well.

[Rafael122]

Obviously some big free agent signings could change things, but right now, I agree with you that Miami, Chicago, Brooklyn, and Indiana are a clear top 4 and are locks. New York is probably included in that group as well, I just can't see them missing the playoffs, even if they lose JR Smith and regress.

I think we're the next best team. I think the Celtics will surprise some people and still make the playoffs, unless they keep Rondo out all year and try and tank, but I don't think this will be the case. Then I guess I'll go with the Raptors for the last spot, but I could easily see it being the Cavs, Bucks, or Hawks, depending on what free agents they can sign. Or the Pistons if they sign Iguodala I suppose.

The good news is the East looks really easy to make the playoffs in this year. I think the 6th seed could have a .500 record even. I haven't been this confident about making the playoffs in a long time, knock on wood. Hopefully we avoid big injuries, as always, that's gonna be crucial.

This is going to be an odd season in the sense that half the league is going to tank to get a high lottery pick. Assuming the pundits are correct and there could be up to 8 all-stars in next year's draft, then it's probably worth the risk.

EASTERN CONFERENCE - TOP 4 LOCKS

1. Miami
2. Brooklyn
3. Indiana
4. Chicago

These are the best teams in the East, defending champs, the Nets re-loaded for a run for the next year or two before they break it up. Indiana took Miami to 7 games, and Chicago gets Rose back.

TIER 2:

5. New York
6. Washington
7. Atlanta
8. Cleveland

New York is the next best team. Washington, barring health should be a playoff team next season. I put Atlanta and Cleveland on there because after that, I truly have no clue who will be the 7th or 8th seed. This is going to be one of those years where an 8th seed might be 10 games below .500 and still make it. I mean Milwaukee made it with 38 wins. The bar won't be set that high.

Boston - it's in full on rebuilding mode. They still have decent talent, Wallace/Green/Rondo/Bradley but they're gonna tank and tank hard.

Toronto is going to try and blow it up and rebuild. Likewise with Orlando, and definitely Philadelphia.

Atlanta may not even make the playoffs. They have all this cap space, and Paul and Howard pretty much ruled them out from jump street. They're probably going to bring back Josh Smith for the simple reason that they have to use the money somehow.

[Deeptu McPullup]

I already had this in the draft thread before this one was started so here.

I wonder how they would line them up with what they have. Something like this could keep Nene and Okafor rested while giving Trevor A a role on the team. Obviously they can do Nene and Okafor together when they need more size and power. And slide Ves in a PF with Nene at center could work pretty well also.

Wall/Temple
Beal/Webster/Price?/GRJ
Webster/Otto/Trevor
Trevor A/Ves/Kevin/Booker
Nene/Okafor/Kevin

That's 13

Singleton, ?? -

Are we looking at something like this with a battle for starting PF ?

Keep in mind, they did not get a S4 Wall wanted though Trevor A is about a close to it as they have and Otto has a lot of Trevor A in him so both can be used at the 4 like that. They would spread the floor for Wall.

I still think they have to bring Webster back. His shooting and his looker room mentoring in just to important.

Otto and Okafor in the second unit gives them defense and rebounding. Price and GRJ provide some outside shooting. One of Ves, Kevin or Booker should fit at PF depending on what you need at the time and how they progress. Kevin if you need more points. Ves is you need length and scrapitude. Booker is the you a man.

This team could be pretty stable just as is. If they resign Okafor, they could have center covered. Wall, Beal and Otto cover the 1, 2 and 3. Webster is your longer term back up SF and SG.

Now its all up to Ves and Kevins. Both are young. Both have some talent. If either or both break out this year. Thats like finding free top picks since more have written off Ves and Kevin hasn't played well enough to slot him in longer term.

So I still see plenty of need and plenty of a role for Webster. Actually I think he is really important.

Next move on the plate is do they bring back Price on a one year or find an upgrade? I think they find a vet upgrade.

While I believe that Ariza will get minutes at power forward - especially if we somehow convince Webster to come back while keeping everyone - it's really got to be situational minutes for limited stretches.

Starting Trevor Ariza against Boozer and company is just sending a golf cart into a demolition derby. He won't make it through 20 games with his padding'less lankiness being pounded to puddin'.

Maybe 10 minutes a night at the 4 against reserves is about right if we want to push things.

[leswizards]

At PG Wall gets 36 MPG, TBD gets 12 MPG.
At SG Beal gets 36 MPG, Webster gets 12 MPG
At SF Ariza gets 12 MPG, Porter gets 24 MPG, Webster gets 12 MPG
At PF Ariza gets 12 MPG, Nene gets 5 MPG, 31 MPG go to whoever wins them amongst Seraphin, Booker, Singleton, and Vesely.
At C Nene gets 22 MPG, Okafor gets 26 MPG

Seraphin, Booker, Singleton, Porter, Ariza, Vesely, Webster and the backup PG TBD get additional minutes due to garbage time and injuries. Rice and 2 other TBDs get garbage time and injury minutes.

[hands11]

I already had this in the draft thread before this one was started so here.

I wonder how they would line them up with what they have. Something like this could keep Nene and Okafor rested while giving Trevor A a role on the team. Obviously they can do Nene and Okafor together when they need more size and power. And slide Ves in a PF with Nene at center could work pretty well also.

Wall/Temple
Beal/Webster/Price?/GRJ
Webster/Otto/Trevor
Trevor A/Ves/Kevin/Booker
Nene/Okafor/Kevin

That's 13

Singleton, ?? -

Are we looking at something like this with a battle for starting PF ?

Keep in mind, they did not get a S4 Wall wanted though Trevor A is about a close to it as they have and Otto has a lot of Trevor A in him so both can be used at the 4 like that. They would spread the floor for Wall.

I still think they have to bring Webster back. His shooting and his looker room mentoring in just to important.

Otto and Okafor in the second unit gives them defense and rebounding. Price and GRJ provide some outside shooting. One of Ves, Kevin or Booker should fit at PF depending on what you need at the time and how they progress. Kevin if you need more points. Ves is you need length and scrapitude. Booker is the you a man.

This team could be pretty stable just as is. If they resign Okafor, they could have center covered. Wall, Beal and Otto cover the 1, 2 and 3. Webster is your longer term back up SF and SG.

Now its all up to Ves and Kevins. Both are young. Both have some talent. If either or both break out this year. Thats like finding free top picks since more have written off Ves and Kevin hasn't played well enough to slot him in longer term.

So I still see plenty of need and plenty of a role for Webster. Actually I think he is really important.

Next move on the plate is do they bring back Price on a one year or find an upgrade? I think they find a vet upgrade.

While I believe that Ariza will get minutes at power forward - especially if we somehow convince Webster to come back while keeping everyone - it's really got to be situational minutes for limited stretches.

Starting Trevor Ariza against Boozer and company is just sending a golf cart into a demolition derby. He won't make it through 20 games with his padding'less lankiness being pounded to puddin'.

Maybe 10 minutes a night at the 4 against reserves is about right if we want to push things.

Teams like to start the same starting 5 so if they do decide to go with a SA type line up, Trevor A will just run players like that all over the court. Let Carlos Boozer cover Trevor out to the 3 line and watch him cut past him for a feed from Nene when he does. Nene may not be Tim D exactly, but he has a similar enough game and he is a great passing big man. If they need more power, then they will just go with Nene and Okafor Or Randy will just starting Nene and Okafor from the start with Wall, Beal and Webster spreading the floor and cutting to the hoop.

Easy enough to deal with.

Plus they still have Booker. Plus if any of Ves or Kevin step up they have even more depth up front. Kevin was playing more of a power game as the year closed and Ves is due for a rebound. I doubt he head is as messed up as it was last year.

[WizardsWorld]

1. Resign Webster
2. Try to make a deal for a cheap young big with potential (i.e. Thomas Robinson)
3. Sign or trade for a better backup PG (i.e. Barea)

OKAFOR/SERAPHIN
NENE/T.ROBINSON/BOOKER
WEBSTER/PORTER
BEAL/RICE/TEMPLE
WALL/BAREA

*** Ariza, Vesley, Singleton are used in trades.

[hands11]

At PG Wall gets 36 MPG, TBD gets 12 MPG.
At SG Beal gets 36 MPG, Webster gets 12 MPG
At SF Ariza gets 12 MPG, Porter gets 24 MPG, Webster gets 12 MPG
At PF Ariza gets 12 MPG, Nene gets 5 MPG, 31 MPG go to whoever wins them amongst Seraphin, Booker, Singleton, and Vesely.
At C Nene gets 22 MPG, Okafor gets 26 MPG

Seraphin, Booker, Singleton, Porter, Ariza, Vesely, Webster and the backup PG TBD get additional minutes due to garbage time and injuries. Rice and 2 other TBDs get garbage time and injury minutes.

Thats what I'm saying only like this. This is a baseline that they can adjust from.

PG Wall 36-38, TBD 10-12
SG Beal 32 , Web 16 MPG
SF Web 12, Otto 24, Ariza 12
PF Ariza 12, TBD 31 mins open, Nene 5
C Nene 22, Okafor 26

PF - 31 left over where Ves and Kevin are in a head to head battle in the off season. Kevin obviously has the lead. 6-9 275, can run and he has a post game. For Ves to beat him out, he better have found a mid range shot and added at least one offensive move. How amazing would that be But hey, look what Wall did in year 3.

Booker is there in case Kevin and Ves haven't learned to get more physical and they need more.
If Singleton out plays all of them and get the back up spot, then wow. Its Singleton vs Booker. Only one will be here eventually. Singleton better be putting in some serious work this off season. Booker has the edge because he can rebound. And him not being able to stay healthy kind of plays to his advantage as an end of the bench player for cheap.

Temple and Glen Rice are in the wings in case of injury with Temple also available for defensive assignments.

If the Trever A at PF works, you can play more of his minutes there, Otto and Webster more at SF and give Glen a few minutes at SG. Lots of ways to roll it up or down as needed.

http://espn.go.com/nba/team/stats/_/nam ... on-wizards

And that matches the minutes for Beal, Nene, Webster, Trevor A and Okafor from last year. Wall finished the year playing more so I bumped him up. Beal I am keeping down to 32 until we see how the ankle holds up. He was still growing last year. No reason to beat his body up while he is still young when you have other options. Specially just to get through the season.

I would have liked to have a long defensive center like Withey or Iverson or Mike Muscala instead of GR Jr. That would have worked better in my book but it is what it is. Specially if they added Burke instead of Otto.

EG pulled an EG. I get not wanting a rookie PG backing up Wall, but then why not get a long center. Maybe them not doing that was part of really leaving the door open for Kevin and Ves to step it up in their final evaluation year. If so, I guess that makes sense.

[doclinkin]

Code: Select all

      |    1ST QUARTER         |      2ND QUARTER       |
TIME  |2 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 |2 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 |
PG    |JW----------------------|??----JW----------------|
SG    |BB--------------TA------|------BB----------------|
SF    |MW--------------OP------|--------MW--------------|
PF    |Nn--------KS----TB------|--------Nn--------------|
C     |Ok--------------KS------|------Ok----------------|


2nd half is similar, but minutes adjust for identified mismatches and who has the hot hand. Ariza probably earns more minutes in the 2nd half (from Otto then Martell) to cool off the hot hand on the opponent's perimeter scorer.

Starters Minutes
John Wall = 42
Bradley Beal = 34
Martell Webster = 30
Nene = 28
Okafor = 36

Reserve Minutes (in order of appearance)
Otto Porter = 14, earning more minutes when Ariza is flipped at the deadline
Trevor Ariza = 18
Kevin Seraphin = 18
Trevor Booker = 16
Back-up PG = 6 (AJ Price?, Eric Maynor?)

Garbage Time
Chris Singleton, or taking Booker's minutes at PF if Book is injured
Glen Rice Jr. working his way into the SG rotation in 2-3 minute stints, splitting the Ariza SG minutes with Martell.
Jan Vesely. Sorry Jan. Unless you can take back-up Center minutes, Chris Andersen style.
Back-up 2-Guard, defensive version.
Back-up Big.

And obviously minutes will flex with injuries.

Depth Chart
John Wall, somebody, tank for lotto position
Bradley Beal, Martell/Trevor, Glen Rice Jr, DLeaguer on a 10-day or Old Dog veteran
Martell, Trevor, Otto, Singleton, Rice, Jan sorta
Nene, Seraphin sorta, Booker, Small Ball, Singleton, Jan
Okafor, Nene, Seraphin, Small Ball, Jan sorta, Big Stiff at the end of the bench

Something like that. Credit Nate33 for the format, though I had to hunt for it and recode.

[rockymac52]

42 MPG for Wall? 36 for Okafor?

That's not realistic. We won't want to run Wall into the ground any more than we already do because of how crucial it is to our success that he's healthy and playing all season. Not to mention the fact that he missed 2 months this past season because of overworking himself during the summer. He's too valuable of an asset to risk his health like that.

Okafor won't get more than 30, based on his past and where he's at. I think 26 or 28 MPG is more realistic.

[Deeptu McPullup]

Code: Select all

      |    1ST QUARTER         |      2ND QUARTER       |
TIME  |2 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 |2 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 |
PG    |JW----------------------|??----JW----------------|
SG    |BB--------------TA------|------BB----------------|
SF    |MW--------------OP------|--------MW--------------|
PF    |Nn--------KS----TB------|--------Nn--------------|
C     |Ok--------------KS------|------Ok----------------|


2nd half is similar, but minutes adjust for identified mismatches and who has the hot hand. Ariza probably earns more minutes in the 2nd half (from Otto then Martell) to cool off the hot hand on the opponent's perimeter scorer.

Starters Minutes
John Wall = 42
Bradley Beal = 34
Martell Webster = 30
Nene = 28
Okafor = 36

Reserve Minutes (in order of appearance)
Otto Porter = 14, earning more minutes when Ariza is flipped at the deadline
Trevor Ariza = 18
Kevin Seraphin = 18
Trevor Booker = 16
Back-up PG = 6 (AJ Price?, Eric Maynor?)

Garbage Time
Chris Singleton, or taking Booker's minutes at PF if Book is injured
Glen Rice Jr. working his way into the SG rotation in 2-3 minute stints, splitting the Ariza SG minutes with Martell.
Jan Vesely. Sorry Jan. Unless you can take back-up Center minutes, Chris Andersen style.
Back-up 2-Guard, defensive version.
Back-up Big.

And obviously minutes will flex with injuries.

Depth Chart
John Wall, somebody, tank for lotto position
Bradley Beal, Martell/Trevor, Glen Rice Jr, DLeaguer on a 10-day or Old Dog veteran
Martell, Trevor, Otto, Singleton, Rice, Jan sorta
Nene, Seraphin sorta, Booker, Small Ball, Singleton, Jan
Okafor, Nene, Seraphin, Small Ball, Jan sorta, Big Stiff at the end of the bench

Something like that. Credit Nate33 for the format, though I had to hunt for it and recode.

I'd definitely be interested in trading Ariza and one or two of Ernie's Kids sooner rather than later and flesh things out with a combo guard and/or power forward. Depth is good, but better if it's spread out. If it's consolidated, I guess it's better that it's wing depth as wings are inherently versatile, but more roster balance would be optimal.

Aside from that, I doubt Okafor would get that many minutes while rolling back Wall's load sounds good.

I'll have to try my hand with one of those flow charts again before too long as well. A common mistake in our "who gets minutes?" nerd work is to say that there's, for example, "24 backup minutes available for player X between the 2/3 slots, so that's plenty of time" and plugging it in straightforward like that without the flow chart.

It looks fine until you realize that player X would in fact have to be on the court playing both positions simultaneously in order for it to work (well, or you'd have to use Beal in 18 minute marathon stretches at the start of halves and them have him sit). That flow chart is the only way to really do it, though it seems I never put together anything that ended up happening.

[doclinkin]

42 MPG for Wall? 36 for Okafor?

That's not realistic. We won't want to run Wall into the ground any more than we already do because of how crucial it is to our success that he's healthy and playing all season. Not to mention the fact that he missed 2 months this past season because of overworking himself during the summer. He's too valuable of an asset to risk his health like that.

Okafor won't get more than 30, based on his past and where he's at. I think 26 or 28 MPG is more realistic.

You're probably right on Okafor.

On Wall, I'm not saying that's what I want, just saying as of right now we got nothing behind him. And last year there was a stretch where he was regularly posting 40+ minute games. Just saying if we're trying to force a playoff push then yes they may actually run him a 40+ min average.

[Deeptu McPullup]

When playing Wall too many minutes gets my stomach in a knot, I like to take....Beano!

[doclinkin]

I'll have to try my hand with one of those flow charts again before too long as well. A common mistake in our "who gets minutes?" nerd work is to say that there's, for example, "24 backup minutes available for player X between the 2/3 slots, so that's plenty of time" and plugging it in straightforward like that without the flow chart.

It looks fine until you realize that player X would in fact have to be on the court playing both positions simultaneously in order for it to work (well, or you'd have to use Beal in 18 minute marathon stretches at the start of halves and them have him sit). That flow chart is the only way to really do it, though it seems I never put together anything that ended up happening.

Yeah I used to build them based on the popcornmachine.net game flows. See here f'rinstance. But my coding was a godawful salad of ASCii typeface dots and commas and mess. Nate made it look pretty, so he gets the credit.

I agree as written we have certain players earning too many minutes, I was just looking at their stated aims (playoffs) and the players we have and wondering how in heck they'd make it work.

[payitforward]

The three biggest negatives on the team last year (among players who are still around to worry about, that is) were Seraphin, Singleton and Vesely. Together they played @2200 minutes -- @ 11% of all player minutes.

Vesely and Singleton didn't produce, and they didn't develop from their rookie seasons either. I don't see any reason to think they'll get better this year. Remembering a few alley oops from Wall to Vesely certainly doesn't help convince me.

Worst, however, was Seraphin. If you compare his numbers w/ an average Center his incompetence jumps out at you. And, again, remembering a few nice scoring plays doesn't change that. There aren't a lot of bigs in the league worse than Seraphin at this point.

In 2010 I loved the pick. But a bust is a bust, and so far that is what he is. I'd *a lot* rather have Kyle O'Quinn, whom we could have nabbed w/ the #46 we gave away last year. So, first priority IMO would be to find a way to get something for him, if possible.

[rockymac52]

The three biggest negatives on the team last year (among players who are still around to worry about, that is) were Seraphin, Singleton and Vesely. Together they played @2200 minutes -- @ 11% of all player minutes.

Vesely and Singleton didn't produce, and they didn't develop from their rookie seasons either. I don't see any reason to think they'll get better this year. Remembering a few alley oops from Wall to Vesely certainly doesn't help convince me.

Worst, however, was Seraphin. If you compare his numbers w/ an average Center his incompetence jumps out at you. And, again, remembering a few nice scoring plays doesn't change that. There aren't a lot of bigs in the league worse than Seraphin at this point.

In 2010 I loved the pick. But a bust is a bust, and so far that is what he is. I'd *a lot* rather have Kyle O'Quinn, whom we could have nabbed w/ the #46 we gave away last year. So, first priority IMO would be to find a way to get something for him, if possible.

Disagree. You were on point about Vesely and Singleton being worthless, and yes, Seraphin has his flaws and needs to drastically improve, but he is without a doubt ahead of those 2 guys in the depth chart and development curve.

For starters, it helps him a lot compared to those two guys that he's able to play center, as that's a more valuable commodity for us at the moment. This past season, Seraphin's offense took a big step backwards, and it made him a big negative whenever he was on the floor. For some strange reason, his usage rate greatly increased, up to 24% from 18% a year earlier. To make matters worse, his ORtg plummeted (possibly as a result of the increased usage), falling to a pathetic 89 compared to his mark of 105 (slightly above average) a year earlier. A lot of this was because he started shooting a lot more jumpers instead of trying to score at the rim. If we can get his head straight on offense again, there's no reason why he can't return to his sophomore production on offense, with a slightly below average usage rate and an average to slightly above average ORtg.

The main reason Seraphin has value to this team, both in the short- and long-term, is his defense. His defense has improved every season so far. As a rookie, his defense was below average. As a sophomore, his defense was average. This past season, his defense became slightly above average. If he keeps this trend up, we're looking at a good defensive center. Considering the quality of backup centers around this league, if you can get a guy who's young and is a good defensive center with average offensive production, then that's golden. With the added offense surrounding him on a healthy roster, as well as the addition of Porter (and maybe Rice, we'll see), Seraphin's usage rate should get back down to what it used to be, possibly lower, and his ORtg will increase dramatically as a result. I think a lot of people here are going to be pleasantly surprised with Seraphin this season.