Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread - Part II

[Frichuela]

To your point, Nate, Conley was an elite pick and roll defender for years. Paul and Lowry were the same way. Jones is just mediocre on the defensive end. Doesn’t move the needle anywhere. He’s a decent backup PG at best that can return a 2nd round pick or two.

I wanna see more Jared Butler. He can shoot the lights out. High level basketball IQ/feel for the game and competitiveness, good defender, good vision/playmaking. Young enough to be a legit core piece. Some team will get a steal now that his heart condition is under control and manageable.

I also like that Butler is 2 inches taller and at least 10 pounds heavier than Tyus Jones. That matters.

Agreed. Butler is worth a shot, especially in our case as we do not have anything to lose! I’d say play him now as many minutes as possible.

For the record, I liked him more than Davion Mitchell during their championship run.

[DCZards]

I wanna see more Jared Butler. He can shoot the lights out. High level basketball IQ/feel for the game and competitiveness, good defender, good vision/playmaking. Young enough to be a legit core piece. Some team will get a steal now that his heart condition is under control and manageable.

Butler has shown enough to hopefully warrant more PT. He’s played well pretty much every time he’s been given an opportunity.

While he’s played primarily against other team’s backups, against Atl a lot of Butler’s minutes were against a Hawks team that included Young, Hunter and Okongwu.

I had Butler as a possible lottery pick but he dropped to the second rd reportedly because of questions about his heart.

Dawkins had Butler in OKC and then brought him to DC when he became available so it looks like our GM is a fan.

[NatP4]

Also had Butler as a lottery pick and thought he was the far superior prospect to Davion Mitchell. He improved dramatically from his freshman to sophomore and then sophomore to junior years of college, has done the same in the NBA.

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

[dckingsfan]

I saw this and laughed. I think Kuzma is quoting PIF

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/273819/Kyle-Kuzma-We-Cant-Guard-A-Stop-Sign

[payitforward]

-- Kuz is smart & funny, so I guess you're saying the same about me...?

I'll do my best to live up to the praise.

[LyricalRico]

I saw this and laughed. I think Kuzma is quoting PIF

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/273819/Kyle-Kuzma-We-Cant-Guard-A-Stop-Sign

[nate33]

I don't think this is really worth of it's own thread, so I put it here:

Read on Twitter

[bsilver]

I don't think this is really worth of it's own thread, so I put it here:

Read on Twitter

What's that coming out of his jersey?

[payitforward]

We already had our full complement of three 2-way players. Hence we must have released Johnny Butler.

He's the skinny Center -- not Jared Butler.

[nate33]

Just thinking about how the team could be so much better with just a few tweaks to how last offseason was handled:

First of all, what if Porzingis was resigned to a deal similar to what he signed in Boston, but with an extra year (since we'd have to pay a premium as a bad team) and with a descending structure? So instead of two years at $29.2M and $30.7M respectively, it was 3 years at $34M, $30M and $26M respectively (plus this season when he is paid the last of his previous contract at $36M). This would also mean that we would not have traded for Tyus Jones, Gallo and Muscala.

Secondly, what if we refrained from making the Paul for Poole trade, and instead, traded Paul to some team for an expiring contract and a protected 1st. I figure Miami would have been game: Paul for Lowry and their lotto protected 2028 1st. We then waive Lowry.

Finally, I think that Beal trade could have been done without including Jordan Goodwin.

Without Rollins and PBJ taking up roster spots, we could have grabbed Garuba when he was available:

Our rotation would be:

PG Wright/Goodwin/Butler
SG Shamet/Kispert/
SF Avdija/Coulibaly/Omoruyi
PF Kuzma/Avdija/Gill
C Porzingis/Gafford/Garuba

That's a much better team with Porzingis - still not a winning team or anything since there is no dynamic guard play, but we'd be 7-14 instead of 3-18 - still firmly in the lottery, but not demoralized. Furthermore, Avdija and Coulibaly are still in the same role with the same minutes so they would have developed the same, but we would also have another extremely good asset (Porzinigis) locked up to a descending contract that expires in Summer 2027 alongside Kuzma's, not to mention Goodwin. And Omoruyi would get a bit more regular playing time with Kispert having to play more SG minutes in the absence of Poole.

I still think the team might finish in the bottom 4 in the standings with some judicious "rest" of Porzingis in the second half of the season, but even if they finished 5th or 6th from last, it's not like this draft has a clear #1.

In the long term, our salary situation would be quite similar, except with borderline-All-Star Porzingis in place of worst-player-in-the-league Poole at roughly the same salary. And instead of the protected 2030 Golden State pick (which gets extinguished if it doesn't convey), we would get the 2028 lotto protected Miami pick.

We also would have had a roster spot and the MLE to throw at any interesting young shooting guard prospect that came across our radar during the offseason. Also, we would still have had a $9.8M Trade Exception from the Monte Morris trade, but no longer would have the $12.3M TPE from the Porzinigis trade.

[payitforward]

The only possible downside in your picture, nate, is a minor one: we'd have Goodwin in place of Rollins, who is almost a full 4 years younger & seems to have significant upside -- although Goodwin is a more productive player right now & an outstanding bargain at his price, so....

The major upside, obviously, is not taking on Poole & his multi-year contract at an anti-bargain price. Poole looks like a rhinestone in the rough, sadly, rather than a diamond!

[DCZards]

I think the biggest problem/obstacle with Nate’s scenario would be getting KP to agree to sign a multi-year contract with a bottom-feeder team.

[dckingsfan]

If we could have not received Poo Poo, kept Goodwin and gotten Garuba - well, you could just stop there.

I would be extremely happy with a C rotation of Gafford/Garuba and a SG rotation of Shamet/Kispert.

[nate33]

I think the biggest problem/obstacle with Nate’s scenario would be getting KP to agree to sign a multi-year contract with a bottom-feeder team.

Possibly.

It's worth noting that Porzingis has had very positive things to say about the Wizards. He didn't hate his time here. I think by offering an extra guaranteed year, a deal could have been worked out. But obviously, I'm not in a position to know. You may be right.

[penbeast0]

If we get an opportunity to get a young big into cap space for a phantom second, who gets let go?

[9 and 20]

If we get an opportunity to get a young big into cap space for a phantom second, who gets let go?

Dunno if we'll be able to find any fat to trim on a 3-19 team that just lost by 50 points.

[nate33]

If we get an opportunity to get a young big into cap space for a phantom second, who gets let go?

Gill or Muscala. Muscala if the big man has a few years of experience and can play in a rotation. Gill if the big man is a raw prospect.

[mhd]

Just thinking about how the team could be so much better with just a few tweaks to how last offseason was handled:

First of all, what if Porzingis was resigned to a deal similar to what he signed in Boston, but with an extra year (since we'd have to pay a premium as a bad team) and with a descending structure? So instead of two years at $29.2M and $30.7M respectively, it was 3 years at $34M, $30M and $26M respectively (plus this season when he is paid the last of his previous contract at $36M). This would also mean that we would not have traded for Tyus Jones, Gallo and Muscala.

Secondly, what if we refrained from making the Paul for Poole trade, and instead, traded Paul to some team for an expiring contract and a protected 1st. I figure Miami would have been game: Paul for Lowry and their lotto protected 2028 1st. We then waive Lowry.

Finally, I think that Beal trade could have been done without including Jordan Goodwin.

Without Rollins and PBJ taking up roster spots, we could have grabbed Garuba when he was available:

Our rotation would be:

PG Wright/Goodwin/Butler
SG Shamet/Kispert/
SF Avdija/Coulibaly/Omoruyi
PF Kuzma/Avdija/Gill
C Porzingis/Gafford/Garuba

That's a much better team with Porzingis - still not a winning team or anything since there is no dynamic guard play, but we'd be 7-14 instead of 3-18 - still firmly in the lottery, but not demoralized. Furthermore, Avdija and Coulibaly are still in the same role with the same minutes so they would have developed the same, but we would also have another extremely good asset (Porzinigis) locked up to a descending contract that expires in Summer 2027 alongside Kuzma's, not to mention Goodwin. And Omoruyi would get a bit more regular playing time with Kispert having to play more SG minutes in the absence of Poole.

I still think the team might finish in the bottom 4 in the standings with some judicious "rest" of Porzingis in the second half of the season, but even if they finished 5th or 6th from last, it's not like this draft has a clear #1.

In the long term, our salary situation would be quite similar, except with borderline-All-Star Porzingis in place of worst-player-in-the-league Poole at roughly the same salary. And instead of the protected 2030 Golden State pick (which gets extinguished if it doesn't convey), we would get the 2028 lotto protected Miami pick.

We also would have had a roster spot and the MLE to throw at any interesting young shooting guard prospect that came across our radar during the offseason. Also, we would still have had a $9.8M Trade Exception from the Monte Morris trade, but no longer would have the $12.3M TPE from the Porzinigis trade.

I think KP was gone the minute we indicated are rebuild plans to him. KP had the leverage and wanted Boston in order to win. I loved KP here and would have resigned him easily to mitigate the ugliness of the rebuild, but I don't think he wanted to play for a rebuild sans Beal.

[payitforward]

So... if we weren't rebuilding, you think Porzingis would have wanted to stay on our treadmill, 35-win-team rather than going to Boston? Doesn't seem likely to me.