How good can the Wizards be?

[nate33]

I think what might cap Les Wiz from being true title contenders is two things. We may be much better on D, but we're still mediocre. What championship team has taken the trophy with just so-so defense? In fact, I'd say a lot of champs have D that's nastier than their offenses are dominant. Last champ I can think of where it was the opposite was the Showtime Lakers, who truly had a powerful offensive attack. But even they had Michael Cooper, the Secretary of Defense.

I'm not sure if this thinking applies in today's NBA.

The Phoenix Suns were the 2nd best team in the league last year yet they had the 13th best defense and no post play. Dallas almost won a title the year before with the 11th ranked defense and no post play.

The game has changed. Zone defenses and hand checking rules have greatly reduced the importance of dominant post play. You still have to play above-average defense, but you don't need to be an elite defensive team to win it.

[doclinkin]

Overall, I think EG has done an outstanding job of assembling this team. The personell complement each other perfectly. We have a great balance of offense and defense, passing and shooting, youth and maturity.

And a good fit between scheme, coaching staff and roster.

Some of us saw this developing years ago, though we pinned hopes on the reasonable maturation of KFB or PJR as smart or smooth passing pivot players with a decent J. (Kwame started with a decent face-up game, so said MJ and draft reports, and he always sounded smart in interviews, introspective, reasonably bright. And PJR racked a few assists and hit smooth jumpers playing next to JJ Barea Mora in Puerto Rico Int'l games, one figured if he were not a total mouth breather he could swiftly settle into a classic point pivot player).

So it took a little longer. But at each point EG has followed his GM philosphy: get the coach teh players he needs to run the style he likes, only then can you fairly judge his performance. With every yes/no of his own (Etan excepted, as an owner-induced signing IMO) EG added the types of players important to the scheme: skilled shooters at the Big positions, multi-tooled multi position combo guards, ball handlers and/or passers at each spot.

Luck played a part. David Stern got tired of defensive muggery bogging down the game, and instituted new defensive rules just in time for the Wiz new scheme/roster to take advantage of it. And seeing what was developing, EG took full advantage of the bargains available in undervalued players who'd previously been seen as a liability. The scheme made a virtue of versatility, a blessing out of tweenerism.

So as for the state of the team, re: the elite. Not there yet, but we're nipping at their heels.

LeBron alone (and his pal Boobie) basically carried a team to the Finals. LeBron who previously beat the no-defense playoff Wiz by a whisker and the benevolence of a few refs. LeBron and his magic traveling shoes.

Does anyone think that team is a League apart from the Wiz? Maybe, we'll see, they may beat us tomorrow and prove conclusively that they can defeat this squad when we lack all our talent.... Again.

BUt who would say it's impossible, bet against our boy Gil when he's got his game going at it's incandescent best? When his shot is so hot it ignites the nets. Look some part of why Pippen got good was watching and going against MJ in practice. I'm convinced, some part of why DeBeard can stroke from 35 while face-guarded is because he's seen Gil do it. Contracted the swag. Ditto Caron. YOu've seen confidence and grit and hard work just _will_ the ball through the hoop like it's nothing, it gets you believing you can do anything.

Fact is we've seen this team, when hot, beat any team in the league, convincingly. A couple years there we owned perennial champ Detroit. We just beat the anointed champs to be in a home and home. We're consistently the consensus pick for the underdog team that no team wants to see in the postseason.

And now they discovered defense? Think Gil can't play defense? You never heard the Olympic camp stories where his squad was playing Kervorkian agaisnt the opposing all-star squad and smothering them with a pillow? We've seen Gil play fierce filthy disgusting nasty defense every now and again, usually the first 10 games of the year until we hit a scoring drought. And now and agaisn we've seen him turn it up.

But shoot, this year at least he's coming into the game without a full season of pounding on his frame and stamina. Just saying. Fully rested, if he gets his wind back, gets his shot back, gets his quicks. No telling.

And as for the future. Well, of course, alot depends on the offseason, but seems to me the team, with the key parts re-signed, we have a strong chance to develop strong and stronger and consistently do damage. Knock on that door. And meet Portland in the Finals a few years in a row.

And well, prob'ly get beat. BUt you know, better than nuffin', right?

[Wiz99]

Maybe we're not quite as good as Lakers Showtime. We just need to sign McAdoo to come off the bench. I'd settle for Elton Brand. But seriously, I think we do set the inside tone early on purpose. Notice Haywood usually gets inside buckets early in games. It establishes the inside threat, and you don't have to keep going back to it to keep the threat. Also, Jamison has gone inside quite a bit this season - with his array of flip shots.

I never would have guessed how balance this roster has become. I always thought EG was a solid GM, but he's shown a vision that I didn't see coming. Everyone seems to fit. And if everything with Gil works out, we've got a championship contender, imo, and a great future.

OMG... did you just compare Brendan Haywood to Kareem and the Sky Hook I mentioned as an example of dominant post play?

[Wiz99]

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I'm not sure if this thinking applies in today's NBA.

The Phoenix Suns were the 2nd best team in the league last year yet they had the 13th best defense and no post play. Dallas almost won a title the year before with the 11th ranked defense and no post play.

The game has changed. Zone defenses and hand checking rules have greatly reduced the importance of dominant post play. You still have to play above-average defense, but you don't need to be an elite defensive team to win it.

Neither one of those guys won it, did they?

I recognize I'm getting perilously close to saying there's a formula for a championship team. So I'll just say I'd feel a whole lot better if the Wiz were at least in the top third in D, and our (sole) post threat wasn't an undersized tweener forward with a toolbox of dippsy-doodle shots. We're getting better. But I think there's a couple more steps to take before we consider ourselves contenders.

[fishercob]

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Neither one of those guys won it, did they?

I recognize I'm getting perilously close to saying there's a formula for a championship team. So I'll just say I'd feel a whole lot better if the Wiz were at least in the top third in D, and our (sole) post threat wasn't an undersized tweener forward with a toolbox of dippsy-doodle shots. We're getting better. But I think there's a couple more steps to take before we consider ourselves contenders.

Suns likely win were it not for Donaghy and/or those ridiculous suspensions. Miami easily loses to Dallas if that series is better officiated. Point is, we're in the conversation.

[Dat2U]

Who needs interior scoring when you have a healthy Gilbert Arenas who can attack the rim and finish over bigger players? AD can also get to the lane & finish. Both can draw contact and get to the free throw line frequently.

I don't believe we need a true post threat. We can get scores in the paint in other ways.

With Gilbert, offensive efficiency isn't the problem.

In this day & age, I think its more important that you have guys who can defend well on the interior rather than having a post up option. With Brendan & Andray, I believe we can defend the middle successfully against most teams.

[Ruzious]

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OMG... did you just compare Brendan Haywood to Kareem and the Sky Hook I mentioned as an example of dominant post play?

Have you seen the +/-'s??? Of course Haywood is better. Next you'll tell us that Magic is better than Arenas. That's a little thing I call sarcasm. It's actually a comparison to how the Jordan/Pippen Bulls used to go to Cartwright in the first quarter to establish the inside game - and would rarely go to him later in the game. Or to dumb it down, the Fonz only had to beat up 1 guy to make a reputation. Then just the threat of him beating up someone else would be enough to make him effective.

[jmrosenth]

[quote="doclinkin"][/quote]

Quote function is messed up but that's why doc is my favorite read on the boards. Me luvs me some stat dudes, but I enjoy the narrative stuff better. Clearly, I also tend to take a positive outlook myself, but when doc talks, it's not just blind homerism.

But to answer your question, sure, getting to the Finals and losing good enough? For me, absolutely. If we lost 3 years in a row without making a move to get better, not so much. For a lot of guys it's championship or bust but I've always taken the long view. Not saying it's right. But before we get ahead of ourselves, some perspective.

This team hasn't done ****.

Thanks mostly to EG and Arenas we've gotten over that horrible hump of mediocrity where we now expect this team to not only be competitive, but to be good, and win more than they lose. Growing up during the days of 80s and 90s that's a 180. Back in 2000 on the ESPN boards, there'd already be a 60 page thread dedicated to tanking and getting Eddie Griffin (RIP), led by Sev. We've come very far since then. But until this team wins playoff series, and more than one in the same season, we really don't know how good we can be with a fully healthy roster. For all the recent success, it still doesn't ad up to much. One playoff series win against a depleted Bulls team can only carry the euphoria so far.

[drsd]

Magic fan here. I have been amazed by how well the Wiz have reacted to the injury woes. Clearly the Washington coach is doing an Ace job. As well, clearly the GM has assembled a team, over a collection of stats.

It will be exciting watching the Magic and the Wizards grind it out over the next 40 games.

[Pradamaster]

Mostly been lurking here (have my own site to worry about), but just to add umph to Nate's argument:

Miami was 9th in defensive rating when they won in 06. The Lakers were 21st in 2001. The Rockets were 12th when they won in 1995 (Clyde Drexler year). The Showtime Lakers were never higher than seventh in the years they won in the 80s. Hell, our very own Bullets in 78 were 9th.

Point is, if your offense is spectacular, your defense can be above-average.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The offense with Gilbert last season was often spectacular.

And this season the defense is certainly above average.

Hmmm ...

[jmrosenth]

Mostly been lurking here (have my own site to worry about), but just to add umph to Nate's argument:

Miami was 9th in defensive rating when they won in 06. The Lakers were 21st in 2001. The Rockets were 12th when they won in 1995 (Clyde Drexler year). The Showtime Lakers were never higher than seventh in the years they won in the 80s. Hell, our very own Bullets in 78 were 9th.

Point is, if your offense is spectacular, your defense can be above-average.

Love the site...keep up the great work.

[fishercob]

Bump for the possibility demonstrated by tonight's win vs. the Raps.

This team's ceiling is not about the "Big 3," but about the role players. We have now seen glimpses of how good Blatche, Young and McGuire can be.

McGuire shows flashes of a young Rodman.

Deshawn's D and 3's make him more like Bruce Bowen every day. He's not the defender Bowen is yet, but he can do more offensively.

The key to this team becoming elite is the "future 3" becoming consistent -- bringing it every night, without fail.

Go Wiz.

[gowiz999]

Screw Greg Anthony. He says that what we are doing without Gil isn't that amazing considering we are only a 6 seed in a bad conference. He said even with Gil back we would get killed in the first round of the playoffs. Idiot

[LyricalRico]

Blatche, Pesh, McGuire, and Young are a young core with ridiculous potential. Kudos to Grunfeld for solidifying our future with those picks and kudos to the coaching staff for getting them ready to play and then having the guts to actually use them in games.

With starters in their primes ranging from solid (Haywood, Stevenson) to All-Star (Jamison, Butler) to superstar (Arenas) and cagey veteran leadership (Daniels, Songaila), this team has the potential to be one of the most complete in the league.

The only missing ingredients are Gil fitting in well and EJ not giving Etan too many minutes. If both of those things happen we'll be legit contenders.

[RickRoll_inDC]

so the question is 'do we have a good enough defense to win'

right now, not really. DSteve is a good defender, Wood is a great defender, Butler plays the passing lanes well, Blatche is turning tinto the type who can defend anyone basically like him. Gilbert CAN be a great defender, i just don't know why he isn't.

DMac is a good defender, N1 should be a good defender, AD isn't bad, Pech looks lost on defense at times.

here's what i would do:

Haywood/Pech
Blatche/Jamison
Butler/McGuire
Stevenson/Young
Arenas/Daniels

play Jamison 32-35 minutes a game, and give Blatche a good 25 minutes between PF and C.

Jamison has been a 6th man before. heck, he won 6th man of the year, which is what he could do here.

[fishercob]

I was thinking more about this last night, and it occurs to me that Young is very important. Given the financial realities, I think it's unlikely that Mason is back here next year. He's earned a decent contract and I don't think we're going to be in the position to give it to him.

Young is infinitely more talented than Mason. But can he rein his own game in when we need him to? Can he hit the spot up 3 consistently? If Young can become reliable by next year it would be huge for the Wiz.

[nate33]

here's what i would do:

Haywood/Pech
Blatche/Jamison
Butler/McGuire
Stevenson/Young
Arenas/Daniels

play Jamison 32-35 minutes a game, and give Blatche a good 25 minutes between PF and C.

Jamison has been a 6th man before. heck, he won 6th man of the year, which is what he could do here.

While I agree that we will ultimately be a better, more-balanced team if Blatche can get good enough to take over Jamison's spot at starting PF; let's not put the cart before the horse here. At this point, there is no way Blatche should start over Jamison. None. Jamison is a legit all-star player this year. He has been fabulous all season. A rock. I don't even want to hear talk about moving Jamison to the bench prematurely. Blatche needs to earn the starting spot.

It's fun to dream though. In the best scenario, Blatche continues to improve so that he can play like last night, every night; Arenas hones his defense and becomes a Billups-like two-way player with ultra-clutch closing ability; and Nick Young becomes the next Microwave. We would have three exceptional two-way players in Arenas, Butler and Blatche; two exceptional defenders in Haywood and Stevenson, and two exceptional offensive players in Jamison and Young. We could conceivably have the cabability of fielding a shut-down defensive team, or the scariest offensive lineup in the league.

[DCZards]

McGuire shows flashes of a young Rodman.

I was thinking the same thing but was afraid to say it...I didn't want you folks to think I was totally crazy.

DMac does a lot of things as a rebounder that reminds me of Rodman, most notably how quickly he comes out of nowhere to get to balls that are 15-20 feet away from where he started and the way he can either tap the ball to himself for the rebound or tap it out to a teammate. Those were among Rodman's trademarks.

It also looks like DMac has some of Rodman's hard-nosed defensive abilities.

What DMac needs to learn now is how to box people out like Rodman did in his prime.

[DCZards]

While I agree that we will ultimately be a better, more-balanced team if Blatche can get good enough to take over Jamison's spot at starting PF; let's not put the cart before the horse here. At this point, there is no way Blatche should start over Jamison. None. Jamison is a legit all-star player this year. He has been fabulous all season. A rock. I don't even want to hear talk about moving Jamison to the bench prematurely. Blatche needs to earn the starting spot.

I totally agree. With as much has we've bashed AJ on this board in past years, there is no way you can look at the season he's having and his impact on this team's success and now acknowledge that he's been "a rock," as you say.

Jamison is playing with the energy of a youngster. He clearly is a guy who takes good care of himself physically. While I can also forsee the day when Blatche becomes a starter, I think the Zards would be wise to not trade AJ but re-sign him. He could become a special and productive "sixth man" someday.