Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013

[closg00]

Looks like the 29 wins group has the inside-track for winning the pool unless Brooklyn and Chicago have nothing to play-for and they rest their starters, but that doesn't guarantee a win for us either.

31 – Zonkerbl, willbcocks, bulletproof_32
30 – TheBigThree, montestewart, floydfan29
29 – CCJ, Benjamin, Dat2u, verbal8, benjamin

[hands11]

44 – Shorty, payitforward
43 – doclinkin
42
41 – nuposse04
40 – CaPtaiN eYeSaNo, Rafael122, Pancakes3
39 – dobrojim, Illuminaire
38 – Free Balling
37 – Joe_Wiz, BarnabyJones, Nate33, Nivek
36 – fugop, JAR69
35 – Higga, Tontoz, AnotherFinn, LyricalRico, Severn Hoos
34 – DaRealHibachi, DCZards
33 – FAH1223, truwizfan4evr, Fishercob, dandridge 10, closg00
32 – MJG, Gesa2, Dangermouse, GhostsOfGil, The Consiglieri, hands11, miller31time
31 – Zonkerbl, willbcocks, bulletproof_32
30 – TheBigThree, montestewart, floydfan29
29 – CCJ, Benjamin, Dat2u, verbal8
28 – hermitkid, Earth2Ted
27 – Halcyon
26
25 – Jay81
24 – sashae
23
22 – Upper Decker

hands11 on Fri Mar 29, 2013 9:50 am
With the injuries they have late in the year to Beal, Webster, Nene and Price; them probably looking for a few more loses down the stretch; and a relatively tough schedule, its looking like 29-30 is going to be the number.

Looking at the schedule, hard to see more then 3-4 more wins.

I think I'm out of the running. I just don't see 6 wins left on the schedule.

----

They have gone 3-6 since then and its looking like 3-8 is how the season will end. Hey, starting 4-26 was a huge hole. No sense and messing up lottery slotting on beating Philly last night. Its a tight race down the stretch.

[willbcocks]

And, had they been healthy, they'd be right on target for the 44 I predicted.

I'd like it noted that I (moi) am the one who predicted the level they are playing at right now as the level their healthy team would be at.

And that I still didn't -- and don't -- like the Okariza trade or most of Ernie Ugfield's off-season moves.

(Edit: also worth noting that some of the biggest "homers" and EG supporters predicted way below what the team is capable of -- recognize yourself in that observation, Hands ?? )

Considering we knew Wall was hurt and Nene had planar fasciatis when we made the predictions, why would you make your prediction a full health prediction?...

I don't think we knew Nene would miss games when we made the predictions, and we certainly didn't think Wall would be out all that long.

More important, however -- I don't make prediction based on being "prescient." I make them based on the historical productivity levels of players (as much as I'm able -- e.g. I put Beal at "average" for a SG).

In other words, I predicted more or less accurately what this team could do. As did Nivek. We used analysis based on productivity numbers. Translated our numbers into the number of wins those kind of player numbers on a team usually lead to.

You want to have a chance to get it right? For a little chance, use pin the tail on the donkey. For a better chance figure out how productive the team's players are, quantitatively, and translate that into # of wins.

It's clear you don't make your predictions based on being prescient--if you did you wouldn't have missed by 15 wins.

I love this post, though. You had a chance for humility and to examine the poor assumptions you made that led to your terrible estimate. Instead you said that you "more or less accurately predicted what this team could do" and then belittled those of us with better estimates by saying we were just lucky and made up our guesses without any evidence (not sure what your evidence for that conclusion was...)

Good on you for coming up with your own system, though--that tends to make the board more interesting.

[Nivek]

In my prediction, I anticipated Nene and Wall missing games. I misunderestimated how many games Wall would miss. And I misoverestimated how well Nene would play. Whether it was age-related decline or injuries (or nagging injuries due to aging), I don't know. But, I thought he'd play better.

I also expected better play from Seraphin and Vesely.

On the flip side, Webster was much better than I'd anticipated. Okafor was significantly better than I predicted; Price was a little better than I thought he'd be. Beal, Ariza and Booker were about what I'd expected.

Wall played better than I'd projected, but less so his overall production sorta netted out to about what I'd figured it would be when I prognosticated 37 wins.

[nate33]

Geez, is Dat2U ALWAYS right?

[Illuminaire]

Geez, is Dat2U ALWAYS right?

He missed on Leonard two years back, but that's all I can think of.

[tontoz]

Geez, is Dat2U ALWAYS right?

I hope he is right this time.

[gesa2]

Not that it matters, but my guess was 30 no 32. It wasn't even based on a system, though )-:

[Zonkerbl]

Oh, I predicted 31, not 30?

I'm crushed.

[dobrojim]

Geez, is Dat2U ALWAYS right?

Dat is a smart guy but he was also one of the ones, like me, who
didn't think Harden would be this good. Towards the end of his NCAA
career, he really didn't show that much.

almost no one is right or wrong all the time and the more you express
yourself, the more likely it is that there will be evidence of that fact.

[AFM]

CCJ and Dat's comments from the first page are eerily accurate.

[Zonkerbl]

They were playing mainly against bad teams, injured teams, and teams that didn't care.

Teams that didn't care = last six games of the season, which Nate has excluded from the sample.
Bad and injured teams = and yet more than half of games were against playoff teams.

Ruzious, this 19 game sample seems to be immune from all the deficiencies you accuse it of.

Not saying you're wrong, but Nate's 19 game sample certainly doesn't support the conclusion you're trying to make.

We'll see, I guess. My take on this is that the team plays well when one of Nene, Seraphin, or Vesely (or James Singleton) is having a good game, which I guess was the case during that stretch. Our frontcourt had to play well, because our SG and SF sucked.

So now it looks like we've improved the SG position, so we have more margin for error. But the season will still depend on the health of Nene's feet, or Seraphin's continued improved play, or the unlikely re-emergence of Vesely from his burger-induced somnolescence. And Wall's health. Not too encouraged about that right now. I guess we'll see where we are a month from now and really know what we have.

Accurate AND eloquent!

[Dat2U]

I think Vegas has it right. 30.5-47.5.

I could be off by half a game... or so.

With Wall's injury and Nene missing training camp, I was thinking probably just short of 30 wins. They'll be yet another miserable start to the season (8-32, around .250 winning percentage) and an extended yet utterly meaningless feel good late season run (around .500) that has a strong possibility of taking us out of the running for a high lottery pick this time around. And once again, that run will have the front office thinking, they're just a bit of good health & one player away from competing for the playoffs. And the reign of Ernie Grunfeld continues.

Of course I need to see some preseason games to get a real feel for things but I'm not overly optimistic about the season or long term.

I just wonder when the novelty of having older, professional players with marginal talent will wear off and the board begins to yearn for guys with "upside" on the roster once again.

Dame!!! I really need to buy some lottery tickets.

[queridiculo]

Predicted the team to be in a hole early (which turned out to be a chasm), 28 wins and both Wall and Nene to miss 30+ games.

Looks like I wasn't too far off.

[BigA]

Wizards ended up missing out on the 9th seed by 5 games.

[Higga]

Unlike most years though we actually finished the season terribly. Our winning streak came a few weeks too early. Still, another terrible year for the Bullets/Wizards. What else is new?

On to the Capitals run to the Stanley Cup and the Nats march to the World Series. At least all the other teams in D.C. are good...

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The Wizards are feeling confident about Jordan Crawford's improvement. He has stood out so far in training camp.

I think they'll go 29-53.

I believe there will be significant games missed by Nene to curb any enthusiasm. Wall missing games will probably not be as traumatic or costly to the win total as most think. I think Shelvin might do better than most imagine. I don't see enough offense and star power to win games any other way than defensively.

If Nene plays 70 games, I would up the record to 37-45; but I think he's going to miss a good bit of the season.

This turned out to be on target.

Nate Wolters or CJ McCollum would each be interchangeable backups to Beal. Jose Calderon is a UFA who could help and I think Wolters is much the same player as Calderon. I think Price did a good job and so did Temple filling in as asked, but the Wizards would probably be better off choosing one of them and investing in a more talented young player.

DJ Stephens is better, BTW, than any of these players defensively. A real smart move would be to add Stephens as an undrafted FA, or to spend a late second on him. He's potentially a game changer.

What I would do if I were the Wizards is swing for the fence this offseason

[montestewart]

The Wizards are feeling confident about Jordan Crawford's improvement. He has stood out so far in training camp.

I think they'll go 29-53.

I believe there will be significant games missed by Nene to curb any enthusiasm. Wall missing games will probably not be as traumatic or costly to the win total as most think. I think Shelvin might do better than most imagine. I don't see enough offense and star power to win games any other way than defensively.

If Nene plays 70 games, I would up the record to 37-45; but I think he's going to miss a good bit of the season.

This turned out to be on target.

Nate Wolters or CJ McCollum would each be interchangeable backups to Beal. Jose Calderon is a UFA who could help and I think Wolters is much the same player as Calderon. I think Price did a good job and so did Temple filling in as asked, but the Wizards would probably be better off choosing one of them and investing in a more talented young player.

DJ Stephens is better, BTW, than any of these players defensively. A real smart move would be to add Stephens as an undrafted FA, or to spend a late second on him. He's potentially a game changer.

What I would do if I were the Wizards is swing for the fence this offseason

CCJ, anyone can huff on a tube of airplane glue, toss a paint balloon as they fall unconscious to the floor, and splat a stray strand of blue onto the number 29. That is not the same thing as having a mathematically precise system of letter perfect accuracy that pinpoints within a millionth of a millimeter the exact win total anticipated within the programmed variables. I have such a system, alternate-Q, that correctly predicted the Wizards total of thirty wins. Versus reasonable expectations, Ariza played better, Seraphin played worse, Webster played better, Vesely played worse, Nene was injured more, Okafor hardly at all, Wall out longer but then played better, Booker not as much, Beal out a bit more. These variable results explain the appearance of inaccuracy in the in fact correct prediction of 30.

TheBigThree used his wildly erratic Elevated-99 method of win total calculation, floydfan29 employed his rather conservative half-Windsor approach, and gesa2 his JustAdd2 (beta version, people keep adding two to it; he should change the name). We quibble about process at the annual meetings (great fun, hope you can make it next year) but we respect each other, because we each have a process. You may, like us, choose to marry your fortunes to a system of infallible accuracy and uncanny results, regardless of their correspondence to outcome. Or, like some around here (and you know who you are), you can close your eyes, pray to Sam Mescalito, and for a lucky few, he'll answer prayers one-in-a-thousand times, with a coincidentally, superficially, ephemerally correct answer, that at first glance looks right. The choice is yours.

And remember, the name of this thread is "Predict the Wizards record in 2012-2013." Thus, 29 is not really correct.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

My system is no system, monte. Randomness, chaos, entropy, and blind faith are what I use.

Seems the Wizards didn't quite tank their way to 7th….

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wiz ... tery-odds/

The Wizards lost to the Detroit Pistons once again. As if suffering a four-game regular-season sweep to the equally lowly Pistons wasn’t enough, the Wizards lost a tiebreaker on Friday that will give them the eighth-best odds (3.5 percent) of winning the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft lottery.

Washington (29-53) finished tied with Detroit for the seventh-worst record but the Pistons have the seventh-best odds (3.6 percent) after the NBA conducted a random drawing overseen by the accounting firm of Ernst & Young. The draft lottery will be held May 21 in New York. Orlando, which finished an NBA-worst 20-62, has the best odds at 25 percent.

[montestewart]

My system is no system, monte. Randomness, chaos, entropy, and blind faith are what I use.

Seems the Wizards didn't quite tank their way to 7th….

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wiz ... tery-odds/

The Wizards lost to the Detroit Pistons once again. As if suffering a four-game regular-season sweep to the equally lowly Pistons wasn’t enough, the Wizards lost a tiebreaker on Friday that will give them the eighth-best odds (3.5 percent) of winning the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft lottery.

Washington (29-53) finished tied with Detroit for the seventh-worst record but the Pistons have the seventh-best odds (3.6 percent) after the NBA conducted a random drawing overseen by the accounting firm of Ernst & Young. The draft lottery will be held May 21 in New York. Orlando, which finished an NBA-worst 20-62, has the best odds at 25 percent.

Terd's "save face" imperative and Ernie's "save job" imperative seem to be at odds with the team's "save future" imperative. Maybe a compromise, "save that 8th seed for us," is in the works.