Nothing Thread--only one opinion counts-LOCK ME

[tontoz]

As for "fouling out" Dwight Howard, Howard played 40 minutes that game.

[hands11]

If Cousins wants to came play with Wall at some point in the future, than all the more reason to like the Wall pick. In time, this organization would be able to absorb such a personality. Just not today.

Wall will attract players to come here.

Interesting. I thought EG got no credit for the Wall pick because it was a no brainer. There were other viable options. Trade down and get another pick was clearly another option but I have no buyers remorse with Wall so far. He was what this team needed to make it clear they could transition away from Gil.

Lets just remember that for a sec. There is no Gil here. That was unthinkable to many only a few years ago. They seamlessly replaced him with a player who I feel has even more upside because he is a true PG, he is more disciplined and a better leader.

That was the right choice.

[theboomking]

I'm leaning towards tontoz side about Cousins. He's an out-of-shape post player with a bad attitude that's very ineficient and a turnover machine. I definitely don't see him being better than Wall right now or in the future. I would take him on the Wiz though. He has potential, and maybe Wall could put him on the right path.

You're saying the same thing I am. He is worth the risk of a trade or free agent signing, but not the risk of choosing him over Wall.

Tontoz, I'm not saying he will be a top 10 player. I'm saying that is his ceiling. You may be right, he may never reach it. In fact I think he probably won't. But, if he achieves 90% of his ceiling, he will be quite dynamic. With regard to the question you posed, I don't think the sample size is big enough to answer. How many 270 pound players with a 9'5" standing reach, a variety of post move and anmid range shot have entered the league in the last 10 years?

[fugop]

Cousins was the fourth best player drafted last year -- from the University of Kentucky. Wall -> Patterson -> Bledsoe -> Cousins -> Orton. There's still a pretty good chance Orton will catch him.

[theboomking]

Wow, Cousins is a divisive player! Dat, I'm not saying I'm right and you're wrong, because you could be right. I don't think it's fair to compare Cousins' production to Baltche's though. Andray is a 6 year vet. I don't think kost of us dislike him for his attitude or body language. We dislike him because he is 6'11", plays like a shooting guard, and hasn't improved his body in the last 6 years. Cousins might also play too far from the rim too often, but he is much more physical than Dray, and has the much higher ceiling.

[tontoz]

I'm leaning towards tontoz side about Cousins. He's an out-of-shape post player with a bad attitude that's very ineficient and a turnover machine. I definitely don't see him being better than Wall right now or in the future. I would take him on the Wiz though. He has potential, and maybe Wall could put him on the right path.

You're saying the same thing I am. He is worth the risk of a trade or free agent signing, but not the risk of choosing him over Wall.

Tontoz, I'm not saying he will be a top 10 player. I'm saying that is his ceiling. You may be right, he may never reach it. In fact I think he probably won't. But, if he achieves 90% of his ceiling, he will be quite dynamic. With regard to the question you posed, I don't think the sample size is big enough to answer. How many 270 pound players with a 9'5" standing reach, a variety of post move and anmid range shot have entered the league in the last 10 years?

When Dwight was a rookie he was just a skinny kid straight out of high school with no shot or post game and he averaged 12/10 shooting 52%.

Feel free to list the All-Star bigs who shot 43% or worse in their rookie year given big minutes. I don't think it is a sure thing that Cousins will even be the best big man from his draft.

[theboomking]

After last night, Wall's scoring average is up to 16.1ppg for the season. In the last 10 games, Wall is averaging 19.6ppg, and 6.6 rpg. In March, Wall is averaging 19.1ppg, with 2.0spg, 0.5bpg, 7.3 apg, 6.0 rpg. That is pretty good box score stuffing.

Anybody know of a decent online PER calculator?

[tontoz]

After last night, Wall's scoring average is up to 16.1ppg for the season. In the last 10 games, Wall is averaging 19.6ppg, and 6.6 rpg. In March, Wall is averaging 19.1ppg, with 2.0spg, 0.5bpg, 7.3 apg, 6.0 rpg. That is pretty good box score stuffing.

Anybody know of a decent online PER calculator?

Yeah. It's called Nate33.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

After last night, Wall's scoring average is up to 16.1ppg for the season. In the last 10 games, Wall is averaging 19.6ppg, and 6.6 rpg. In March, Wall is averaging 19.1ppg, with 2.0spg, 0.5bpg, 7.3 apg, 6.0 rpg. That is pretty good box score stuffing.

Anybody know of a decent online PER calculator?

No. I can only find references to the way PER is computed. (basketball-reference and wikipedia have Hollinger's calculations of unadjusted and adjusted PER). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Player_Efficiency_Rating I didn't find an online calculator, but my love of numbers led me to find some other things if you're so inclined to find interesting. (Above poster's right. nate33, or Nivek might have it on spreadsheet).

theboomking, As far as just tracking NBA players efficiency game by game goes, here's three different looks at advanced box scores.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 30LAC.html
Just click to the upper right where it says "Advanced Box Score" and it gives game ORtg, DRtg and other stats, but not PER.

http://popcornmachine.net/cgi-bin/boxsc ... ame=WASLAC
The above gives three indicators each game. Help Value, Productivity, and Efficiency. The last is pretty similar in ways to PER. The three together sum up each player's game.

http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fa ... 3-23/11/30
That one gives efficiency on the right hand side and breaks down the performances of starters, benches, frontcourts, backcourts.

Last couple of my favorites to show how a player is performing, game by game and head-to-head:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... elog/2011/
Check Wall's last few games. I click on Date of the Game Logs so it shows them in reverse order chronologically. By the far right, Game Score, Wall's been really good the last 15 or so games.

http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fa ... /11/30/432
Last, he's a sight that breaks down head-to-head efficiency, every game, by position. Wall has 19 Wins, 28 Losses, 10 Ties with respect to his particular matchup (but he ranks 9th overall in PG efficiency. See main page of site, all PGs)

http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fa ... /11/30/428
McGee shows 15-14-10, but at his overall efficiency is 20th among Cs. Games under 25 minutes played don't count, else McGee would have a few more Ls, in fairness.

http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fa ... /11/26/365
Cousins rates virtually the same as McGee among Cs. 16-15-15. He's ranked 21st overall.


I posted that out of my own curiosity and thoughts that I'm not the only guy wasting too much time on the Internet. Whatever conclusions or none you guys have are fine with me.

[pancakes3]

*per is more than just an amalgamation of stats. it's normalized to the rest of the league as well. PERs are subject to change day-to-day based on the output of the league.

i see cousins blossoming late much like aldridge did. of course LA is more perimeter oriented and skilled, but a gut feeling tells me that next season will be good to Cousins, and he'll make incremental improvements for each progressive season until he tops out at a solid 20/10ish player by his 5th season. If we could ship mcgee out right now, i'd take him on - baggage and all.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

*per is more than just an amalgamation of stats. it's normalized to the rest of the league as well. PERs are subject to change day-to-day based on the output of the league.

i see cousins blossoming late much like aldridge did. of course LA is more perimeter oriented and skilled, but a gut feeling tells me that next season will be good to Cousins, and he'll make incremental improvements for each progressive season until he tops out at a solid 20/10ish player by his 5th season. If we could ship mcgee out right now, i'd take him on - baggage and all.

pancakes, switch one word: Blatche for McGee, and I agree 100%.

If I were a GM I'd trade the lotto pick and Blatche for Cousins and Sacto's round 2 pick. Cousins is a PF playing C. He's really similar in numbers to Blatche, but he's a far better rebounder. He's also coming into the league a far better passer than Andray was over his first two or three seasons.

I believe McGee is a freak of nature who's going to become a very good player, pancakes. Cousins is a grinder, about what you said above, IMO.

[Nivek]

I don't want Cousins. I'd be willing to swap Blatche for him, but only because I think other teams might perceive Cousins as having more value, and then I could package him for something I could build around.

The Aldridge comparison isn't a very good one, in my opinion. As a rookie, Aldridge had an offensive rating of 113 on a usage of 19.3. Cousins is producing an ortg of 93 on a usage of 27.7. That's horrific efficiency. Even using Dean Oliver's usage/efficiency rule of thumb (that efficiency drops 0.6 points per 100 possessions for every 1% increase in usage), Cousins would still be far below Aldridge's rookie efficiency if they used a comparable number of possessions.

I'm not saying it's impossible for Cousins to become an efficient offensive player, but the improvement he needs to make is vast.

[verbal8]

I don't want Cousins. I'd be willing to swap Blatche for him, but only because I think other teams might perceive Cousins as having more value, and then I could package him for something I could build around.

I think the best comparison for Cousins might be Zach Randolph. Randolph played very limited minutes his rookie year, but his per 36 numbers were similar to Cousins(without the TO issue).

[nate33]

Randolph is a pretty decent comparison.

I think of him as more like Al Jefferson. He's definitely a load down low, but he's too slow to guard PF's and he doesn't have great range as a defender so he's not so great as a help defender at center. He's an inch taller and and has a bigger wingspan than Jefferson so his defensive problems at center aren't as bad. Cousins is much less efficient than Jefferson though. He's a taller Al Jefferson plus three extra bad shots per game.

Having an Al Jefferson isn't a bad thing. But I'm have doubts whether he's the kind of guy to carry a championship roster either.

[Rafael122]

Rookie of the Month for the 3rd month in a row.

[hands11]

Cousins was the fourth best player drafted last year -- from the University of Kentucky. Wall -> Patterson -> Bledsoe -> Cousins -> Orton. There's still a pretty good chance Orton will catch him.

I think Orton will show up in a few years as a player. Not a star but a good player.

[DMVleGeND]

Cousins was the fourth best player drafted last year -- from the University of Kentucky. Wall -> Patterson -> Bledsoe -> Cousins -> Orton. There's still a pretty good chance Orton will catch him.

I think Orton will show up in a few years as a player. Not a star but a good player.

I think he'll be out of the league by the time his rookie contract is up! The guy showed nothing in college and was TERRIBLE in the summer league. The only thing he did well was get 1 big block each game.

[theboomking]

Wall volunteered to represent the franchise at the lottery if it would help give the Wizards some good luck.

“I think any guy we get, if we get top five or top 10, can really help our team. But that guy has to understand that it’s going to be a learning process for him. There are going to be some ups and downs, but that’s something I can really help him with because I just got through it,” Wall said. “If we just add another guard or wing player or post player, it’ll just help us out, and you’ve got to have two or three pieces to go far. You can’t win it with one player. That’s what teams are doing. They have three guys, and everybody else knows their roles we’ve just got to add certain pieces to the team."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/wi ... story.html

I love JW's temperament and attitude. I realy like his chances of realizing his potential.

BTW, anyone know where I could find PER stats by month? I'm curious to see how Wall progressed, in terms of PER, after the all star break.

[RickRoll_inDC]

I know this is the John Wall Thread, but still. NY has a pretty good attitude as well (apart from the grammar, of course)

I done seen a lot, being a Wizard. I’m going to keep my options open and hope for the best. The Wizards drafted me, so it’s only right that I’d come back.

[theboomking]

I cut and pasted this from another post I made in a different thread. I found the stats encouraging.

I know we aren't considering pro careers here, but for those that have railed on about how poorly Wall compares to Rose, using the ESPN stat database, I compiled their rookie stats post All-Star break, and here is what I got.

____________Wall --------------------------------------------Rose

Games______27 ----------------------------------------------28
MPG_______ 39 ----------------------------------------------37.4
PPG________18.2---------------------------------------------16.8
APG________7.44-------------------------------------------- 6.32
RPG)_______5.22---------------------------------------------4.5
SPG________1.85---------------------------------------------0.79
BPG_______ 0.63---------------------------------------------0.21
FTA/g______6.96---------------------------------------------3.25
PPS________1.17---------------------------------------------1.17
TO_________3.96---------------------------------------------2.46
FG%________.410----------------------------------------------.480
FT%________.787----------------------------------------------.802

Wall had more turnovers and shot a much lower FG%. However, the fact that Wall and Rose scored the same number of points per shot means that Wall's increased FT attempts, and better 3 point shooting negated his low FG% when looking at overall offensive efficiency.

To summarize, outside of his turnover rate, Wall was superior to Rose in almost every major category. Wall scored more PPG on the same offensive efficiency, had more rebounds, more assists, more than twice as many steals, more than twice as many blocks, and more than twice as many FTA's.

I'm not saying that John is going to be a better player than Derrick Rose has become. I am saying that after the All-Star Break, John played better than Rose did at any point in his rookie year.