I've Got it All Figured Out

[TheSecretWeapon]

Having looked at Kidd's first few years compared to Wall's, I don't think it's a comparison that holds up. Kidd's best season in my database was at age...25. He had a season of similar quality at 29. Through six seasons, Kidd had a peak PPA (my overall stat where 100 = average and higher is better) of 208 compared to Wall's best of 151 (the 2014-15 season). Kidd's "worst" season was his rookie year -- a 122. Wall's first two seasons were worse (93 and 110, respectively).

One way in which the comparison MIGHT offer encouragement is that the best year's of Kidd's career happened after age 25 -- from 25 to 33. His first four seasons were the least productive four-year period of his career. Overall, though, Kidd was a lot better than Wall, even comparing starts to careers.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Having looked at Kidd's first few years compared to Wall's, I don't think it's a comparison that holds up. Kidd's best season in my database was at age...25. He had a season of similar quality at 29. Through six seasons, Kidd had a peak PPA (my overall stat where 100 = average and higher is better) of 208 compared to Wall's best of 151 (the 2014-15 season). Kidd's "worst" season was his rookie year -- a 122. Wall's first two seasons were worse (93 and 110, respectively).

One way in which the comparison MIGHT offer encouragement is that the best year's of Kidd's career happened after age 25 -- from 25 to 33. His first four seasons were the least productive four-year period of his career. Overall, though, Kidd was a lot better than Wall, even comparing starts to careers.

Kev, I think Derek Harper with the Mavs might be an example of a player who got better after age 25. Just from memory, I recall him improving as his career progressed.

What does your database say about his numbers?

Also, weren't Derek (not Ron) Harper's PPA numbers about as good as Wall's?

EDITED: Looking at basketball reference his stats didn't get better. My recollection is off.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Having looked at Kidd's first few years compared to Wall's, I don't think it's a comparison that holds up. Kidd's best season in my database was at age...25. He had a season of similar quality at 29. Through six seasons, Kidd had a peak PPA (my overall stat where 100 = average and higher is better) of 208 compared to Wall's best of 151 (the 2014-15 season). Kidd's "worst" season was his rookie year -- a 122. Wall's first two seasons were worse (93 and 110, respectively).

One way in which the comparison MIGHT offer encouragement is that the best year's of Kidd's career happened after age 25 -- from 25 to 33. His first four seasons were the least productive four-year period of his career. Overall, though, Kidd was a lot better than Wall, even comparing starts to careers.

Kev, I think Derek Harper with the Mavs might be an example of a player who got better after age 25. Just from memory, I recall him improving as his career progressed.

What does your database say about his numbers?

Also, weren't Derek (not Ron) Harper's PPA numbers about as good as Wall's?

EDITED: Looking at basketball reference his stats didn't get better. My recollection is off.

Yeah. Derek Harper started slower than Wall -- 56 as a rookie, a 101 in year two. He was up to 146 in year three, and then a 173 in his 4th season. That's Harper's career peak, and better than any season Wall has posted through six seasons. Harper's age in that peak season: 25. He had four more seasons at about Wall's level (147, 145, 160, 142) before dropping off to around average through most of the rest of his lengthy career. Harper's PPA after six seasons: 133. Wall's after six: 130.

Ron Harper doesn't really work (for me) as a comp for Wall. He started his career as a SG; he didn't become a PG until much later. His best season was a 170 PPA at age...25. Then he wrecked his knee and was never quite the same again. He became a useful player in his 30s as a low-usage PG to Jordan's SG. From 1995-96 to 1997-98, Ron Harper was similarly productive to Wall, albeit in a totally different way (PPAs: 139, 138, 131). Those were ages 32-34. Basically, Harper was a low-usage guy who made few negative plays. Wall makes lots of good plays, but lots of bad plays too.

When I run my doppelganger machine on Harper's best season, the "most similar" seasons were posted by Clyde Drexler, Scottie Pippen, James Worthy and Alvin Robertson.

Same thing for Derek Harper's best season, and I get seasons posted by Mike Conley, Jeff Teague. Steve Nash, Kenny Anderson, Mark Jackson and Ty Lawson.

[Ruzious]

Steve Nash broke out as a superstar in the season he turned 26, but he showed the signs in his age 25 season - when he only played about 27 minutes per game.

[payitforward]

Having looked at Kidd's first few years compared to Wall's, I don't think it's a comparison that holds up. Kidd's best season in my database was at age...25. He had a season of similar quality at 29. Through six seasons, Kidd had a peak PPA (my overall stat where 100 = average and higher is better) of 208 compared to Wall's best of 151 (the 2014-15 season). Kidd's "worst" season was his rookie year -- a 122. Wall's first two seasons were worse (93 and 110, respectively).

One way in which the comparison MIGHT offer encouragement is that the best year's of Kidd's career happened after age 25 -- from 25 to 33. His first four seasons were the least productive four-year period of his career. Overall, though, Kidd was a lot better than Wall, even comparing starts to careers.

Oh no, I didn't mean to suggest that Wall was or ever would be as good as Kidd. I meant only what you point out in your 2d para above: that the arc of Kidd's career offered an example of a PG who peaked late. I.e. an exception to the usual case of a player reaching his top plateau at @25, spending a few years at that level, and then declining.

[payitforward]

Steve Nash broke out as a superstar in the season he turned 26, but he showed the signs in his age 25 season - when he only played about 27 minutes per game.

Great call! And Nash got better and better for years -- he peaked well into his 30s.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Having looked at Kidd's first few years compared to Wall's, I don't think it's a comparison that holds up. Kidd's best season in my database was at age...25. He had a season of similar quality at 29. Through six seasons, Kidd had a peak PPA (my overall stat where 100 = average and higher is better) of 208 compared to Wall's best of 151 (the 2014-15 season). Kidd's "worst" season was his rookie year -- a 122. Wall's first two seasons were worse (93 and 110, respectively).

One way in which the comparison MIGHT offer encouragement is that the best year's of Kidd's career happened after age 25 -- from 25 to 33. His first four seasons were the least productive four-year period of his career. Overall, though, Kidd was a lot better than Wall, even comparing starts to careers.

Kev, I think Derek Harper with the Mavs might be an example of a player who got better after age 25. Just from memory, I recall him improving as his career progressed.

What does your database say about his numbers?

Also, weren't Derek (not Ron) Harper's PPA numbers about as good as Wall's?

EDITED: Looking at basketball reference his stats didn't get better. My recollection is off.

Yeah. Derek Harper started slower than Wall -- 56 as a rookie, a 101 in year two. He was up to 146 in year three, and then a 173 in his 4th season. That's Harper's career peak, and better than any season Wall has posted through six seasons. Harper's age in that peak season: 25. He had four more seasons at about Wall's level (147, 145, 160, 142) before dropping off to around average through most of the rest of his lengthy career. Harper's PPA after six seasons: 133. Wall's after six: 130.

Ron Harper doesn't really work (for me) as a comp for Wall. He started his career as a SG; he didn't become a PG until much later. His best season was a 170 PPA at age...25. Then he wrecked his knee and was never quite the same again. He became a useful player in his 30s as a low-usage PG to Jordan's SG. From 1995-96 to 1997-98, Ron Harper was similarly productive to Wall, albeit in a totally different way (PPAs: 139, 138, 131). Those were ages 32-34. Basically, Harper was a low-usage guy who made few negative plays. Wall makes lots of good plays, but lots of bad plays too.

When I run my doppelganger machine on Harper's best season, the "most similar" seasons were posted by Clyde Drexler, Scottie Pippen, James Worthy and Alvin Robertson.

Same thing for Derek Harper's best season, and I get seasons posted by Mike Conley, Jeff Teague. Steve Nash, Kenny Anderson, Mark Jackson and Ty Lawson.

Thanks for your time and great work, Kevin!

Derek Harper was quite a competitor. Unfortunately for him, the Mavericks back then couldn't get past the Showtime Lakers. Harper did his part. I always liked his game. Your database findings confirm that Derek Harper was quite good at his peak.