Wizards Sign Martell Webster

[Ruzious]

Yeah, the MLE isn't quite what it used to be. And there are huge restrictions on its use if you ever hit the lux tax. I concur that the Wiz might have to give Webster an opt out option to convince him to stay a Wiz.

[Ruzious]

We can't offer 5 years $40M. He don't have the cap room. Our best offer is 4 years $21M using the MLE.

I doubt we'll draft Porter. We're probably going to end up picking in the 7-10 range. Porter will be gone. We'll probably take a project big like Len or Austin. Maybe we take Zeller. We'll have to see what happens after the measurements. The draft board will probably get shaken up quite a bit then.

If the draft were held today (Using current standings):
1) Bobcats-Noel (Bobcats can tank again next year for Wiggins and allow Noel plenty of time to rehab)
2) Orlando-Smart (need a PG)
3) Suns-Mclemore (need a scoring wing)
4) New Orleans-Porter (perfect fit as a need and BPA)
5) Cavs-Zeller (go with the Zeller brothers)
6) Pistons-Shabaaz (need a go-to scorer)
7) Kings-Olapido (fits a huge need)
8) Minny-Len (No good wings left, take BPA and won't take Bennett with Love on roster)
9) Wiz-Bennett (I doubt he falls here, but maybe he does)

I think that paints our situation pretty accurately.

[Rafael122]

If we pick at 9, I would take a CJ McCollum. Personally. Combo guard, would be used as Wall's back up, instant offense off the bench but can also distribute the ball.

[Higga]

Webster is a former first round lottery pick. Could just be a late bloomer, maybe the next Caron Butler(not comparing play style just the fact that they both blossomed a little later into their careers).

We're due some good luck in our rebuilding.

[FAH1223]

In a weird way, it's good that we are capped out and without Bird Rights. It's impossible for us to insult Webster with what he perceives to be a below market contract. The most we can offer is the full MLE.

Basically, we can tell Webster that all we have to work with is the MLE. You can have it two ways, which ever works for you. The first option would be a 2-year deal with the 2nd year a player option. The idea is to give Webster maximum flexibility. If he blows up and gets a big time offer from someone else, he can leave next year. If he stays here throughout the contract, we will have Bird Rights and the ability to pay him any amount on his next contract. The second option is to give him the full MLE for 4 years. That's the most we can pay him. The idea would be to give him the maximum financial security we can give him.

I think his fair market value is probably around $4.5M a year and possibly a bit more, so offering the full MLE isn't overpaying by all that much. Somebody else might conceivably offer him about $6M a year, but with Webster fitting so well here, he might stay for slightly less money.

I'd go with option 1 since it seems pretty safe.

And he could be a late bloomer, he did come straight out of high school and practically has missed 2 seasons thus far in his career.

[fishercob]

Webster's emergence reminds me of an article Hollinger wrote in Novemver about the "Second Draft" phenomenon. Here's the link, but it's Insider, so I will excerpt liberally.

It's something a few people in the league have come to call "The Second Draft" approach: Finding players still in their early 20s, who had enough talent to be high draft picks but for whatever reason have fallen out of favor with their first teams.

The idea here is that a lot of the players who will produce excess value for a team, whether via free agency or trade, are players who (A) have talent, (B) are young enough to still get better and (C) can be acquired cheaply.

Not rocket science when you put it that way, but it's been an important cog in how a lot of smart teams have built and maintained their rosters in recent seasons.

And, as it turns out, it's a hugely ironic factor in Friday's showdown between the Grizzlies and Knicks. While calling it a Finals preview is perhaps a bit much given that they've played 13 games between them, there is no question that these two teams are playing better than their peers right now.

As for the irony -- I don't know if this is where the term originated, but the first "second draft" reference I heard came from Mark Warkentien, then with the Blazers and now ensconced in the Knicks' front office. The Knicks have had some success in this department, too, and we'll talk more about that below.

But Memphis? The Grizzlies' entire success this season has been based on a particularly bountiful "second draft" that has turned around a weak bench unit.

As for the Knicks, you might call what they're doing more of a "seventh draft" -- Jason Kidd, Marcus Camby, Kurt Thomas and Rasheed Wallace all are half a decade older than anybody on the Grizzlies.

But Warkentien hasn't come up empty on the "second draft" mantra from New York, even if the money was invested in slightly older players. Both J.R. Smith and Raymond Felton fit that mantra, and both have played very well in the early part of the season.

In Smith's case, Warkentien may be the first exec in history to "second draft" the same player twice. He'd also picked up Smith on the cheap in Denver (for Howard Eisley and two second-round picks, which were used on Aaron Gray and the immortal JamesOn Curry), and after Smith left Denver and spent half a year in China, he again landed on Warkentien's doorstep in New York.

Partly, of course, this is because J.R. has done some crazy things that diminish his market value. But the twist on that is that it makes him an inexpensive source of scoring, and given the Knicks' other cap limitations that's important.

Ernie employed this philosophy with Yi. It didnt work out, and many here hated the move (opportunity cost). But it has indeed worked with Webster, a 26 year old for #6 overall pick. Here's hoping he keeps up this production or close and sticks around on a good contract.

[closg00]

It would have cost Ernie nothing to include a team-option for 2nd year when he signed Webster correct? I guess that would have required a little more effort on Ernie's part.

[Rafael122]

I'm not opposed to bringing him back, but it's contingent on what happens with Ariza's option and who we select in the draft. Sure 4 years/$21 million isn't a bad contract, but Wall is due for big $, Beal is right around the corner, gotta consider which of the young guys are going to get extended. We could find ourselves right back into an Etan Thomas/Daniels situation, too much money tied up into middling players.

[Kanyewest]

Ernie employed this philosophy with Yi. It didnt work out, and many here hated the move (opportunity cost). But it has indeed worked with Webster, a 26 year old for #6 overall pick. Here's hoping he keeps up this production or close and sticks around on a good contract.

Yup, it seems like EG used the philosophy with Butler, Stevenson, and Livingston as well. Still wonder what a fair contract would be for Webster- maybe Danny Green money? Although Green is a better defender and slightly better career rebounder so maybe the Wizards can sign him for less.

[Ruzious]

Taking from the idea in fishercob's post, here are some relatively disappointing lotto picks from 2006-2009 that might be worth looking into:
2006
- 4. Tyrus Thomas. I thought he was vastly overrated at the time but didn't figure on him being totally worthless. Maybe getting on a decent team could help revive his career?
- 5. Shelden Williams. The Landlord might have had even less success than TT, but isn't there at least a decent rebounder/banger role player there?
2007
- 1. Greg Oden. Cleveland is supposedly very interested in signing him for next season. If they get him guaranteeing only 1 year with a team option, it could be a great move.
- 7. Corey Brewer - the 3rd wheel in the Horford/Noah frontcourt is doing okay with Denver but only occasionally flashes 3 point range. More consistency and focusing on the corner 3 could have a Webster effect on him.
- 8. Brandan Wright - Another vastly overrated college player, but has a pantented jump hook and his efficiency and productivity numbers are shockingly good. I'm talking a 21 PER and 62% eFG and TS% - for the second straight season. Holy spit. Mark Cuban is hoping nobody notices.
2008
- 2. Michael Beasley - we know he can't play SF, but he also hasn't shown he can play PF - which is a surprise since he put up amazing numbers as a college frosh. Rebounding has NOT shown to be a transferable skill for him - yet.
- 9. DJ Augustin - had a decent year or 2 with Indy showing some potential but really fell off badly the last couple of years.
2009
- 6. Johnny Flynn - exciting acrobatic scoring PG in college has been a disaster in the NBA.
- 8. Jordan Hill - showed some positive signs in spurts the last 2 seasons when he wasn't injured. Still has another year on his deal with LAL.
- 11. Terrance Williams - multi-talnted swingman with discipline problems on and off the court.

[Upper Decker]

I kind of get the impression that Wesley Johnson might be a good "second draft" candidate. He flamed out of Minny because they wanted him to be Kobe (ball-handler, creater), and he's struggled in Phoenix becasue honestly who wouldn't struggle in that environment. I'm pretty sure he's an UFA after this year and might be worth a look with the LLE, or whatever they call it these days.

If the Wizards give him the Martell treatment, which is basically park your butt in the corner and shoot when open treatment, he might show why he was selected #4. I still think he has potential as a 3&D type player. I'd certainly rather have him than Martin or Temple.

[nate33]

It would have cost Ernie nothing to include a team-option for 2nd year when he signed Webster correct? I guess that would have required a little more effort on Ernie's part.

You really should stop reflexively bashing EG for everything. It makes legitimate criticism seem like crying wolf.

EG didn't include a team option for a 2nd year because Webster's agent would surely have declined. Webster was a 25-year old former lotto pick who presumably had a high opinion of his capabilities. Why would he lock himself into two years of salary at a measly $1.75M?

Webster intentionally signed a one-year deal on a team where he felt he could get major minutes in a 3&D role because he rightfully believed that if he only had a chance to play while healthy, he could set himself up for a much bigger contract in the following year. There was no upside in him committing to a 2-year deal.

[Nivek]

Webster signed a "show-me" deal and he's shown. I'd still be cautious about re-signing him (in terms of money and length of contract) because virtually all of his improvement has been in shooting from the floor -- which is the stat with the greatest year-to-year variation.

[20MexicanosIn1Van]

Webster signed a "show-me" deal and he's shown. I'd still be cautious about re-signing him (in terms of money and length of contract) because virtually all of his improvement has been in shooting from the floor -- which is the stat with the greatest year-to-year variation.

Just curious, do you have evidence to support that or is it just your gut feeling?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If we pick at 9, I would take a CJ McCollum. Personally. Combo guard, would be used as Wall's back up, instant offense off the bench but can also distribute the ball.

McCollum is going to be a really good player. Lillard is more compact and explosive, and he's a true scoring PG. McCollum is slicker, a better rebounder, more inclined to move off the ball, and possibly a better shooter.

McCollum reminds me of Walt Frazier. He's very smooth and I think will be a surprisingly good defender despite his slight frame. I will be very happy if he's drafted.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Webster signed a "show-me" deal and he's shown. I'd still be cautious about re-signing him (in terms of money and length of contract) because virtually all of his improvement has been in shooting from the floor -- which is the stat with the greatest year-to-year variation.

I think I would go ahead and pay Martell Webster because he's been a leader and he's a class act. His character and his joyful demeanor are the type that make me want him around for years to come.

Of course his shot can come and go and he has had a lot of injuries over the years, so due diligence and prudence should be shown. Like you say, his shooting is better than ever in a contract year. What if it reverts to form afterward? You never want to overpay.

Nivek, I really like Webster and he's probably not going to disappoint in the future IMO.

[Nivek]

Webster signed a "show-me" deal and he's shown. I'd still be cautious about re-signing him (in terms of money and length of contract) because virtually all of his improvement has been in shooting from the floor -- which is the stat with the greatest year-to-year variation.

Just curious, do you have evidence to support that or is it just your gut feeling?

I don't have the links handy, but it's been studied in various ways by several different researchers, and the conclusion has been basically the same each time. Basketball stats in general are far more consistent year to year than they are for other sports, especially baseball and football. Rebounding and assists tend to be the most stable; shooting from the floor least stable.

I have not studied the issue myself, but I'm pulling together a database that will enable me to look at these kinds of questions for myself. If memory serves, David Berri, Kevin Pelton and MikeG (over at APBRmetrics) have posted findings on this subject. Others have too. Dean Oliver might have mentioned it in "Basketball On Paper."

[Nivek]

Webster signed a "show-me" deal and he's shown. I'd still be cautious about re-signing him (in terms of money and length of contract) because virtually all of his improvement has been in shooting from the floor -- which is the stat with the greatest year-to-year variation.

I think I would go ahead and pay Martell Webster because he's been a leader and he's a class act. His character and his joyful demeanor are the type that make me want him around for years to come.

Of course his shot can come and go and he has had a lot of injuries over the years, so due diligence and prudence should be shown. Like you say, his shooting is better than ever in a contract year. What if it reverts to form afterward? You never want to overpay.

Nivek, I really like Webster and he's probably not going to disappoint in the future IMO.

I posted somewhere on the boards that I'd be willing to go 3 years and full MLE for Webster. I hope he won't disappoint. There are plenty of guys who have had a good "show me" year and then regressed once they got their contract. I hope Webster won't be one of those guys. Injury history and the fact that all his improvement is in his shooting are possible reasons to think he might fall in that category. Wouldn't mind making it a 2-year deal with a mutual option on a 3rd year. But I'd guarantee 3 years if that's what he wanted.

[20MexicanosIn1Van]

Webster signed a "show-me" deal and he's shown. I'd still be cautious about re-signing him (in terms of money and length of contract) because virtually all of his improvement has been in shooting from the floor -- which is the stat with the greatest year-to-year variation.

Just curious, do you have evidence to support that or is it just your gut feeling?

I don't have the links handy, but it's been studied in various ways by several different researchers, and the conclusion has been basically the same each time. Basketball stats in general are far more consistent year to year than they are for other sports, especially baseball and football. Rebounding and assists tend to be the most stable; shooting from the floor least stable.

I have not studied the issue myself, but I'm pulling together a database that will enable me to look at these kinds of questions for myself. If memory serves, David Berri, Kevin Pelton and MikeG (over at APBRmetrics) have posted findings on this subject. Others have too. Dean Oliver might have mentioned it in "Basketball On Paper."

Interesting, thanks. It should be pretty easy to check once you get the data.

[hands11]

Webster seemed to be struggling with that hernia last night.

He made two nice back to back drives but went 0-6 from 3

I wonder how much longer he makes it. 13 more games to go.

Beal out ankle
Price out groin
Webster battling a hernia

The flu took Okafor out for 2 games
Now it took out Trevor A

I wonder if anyone else get the flu

But they did go 2-2 on the road even with the injuries and Wall getting ejected.