Our Projected Depth Chart

[nate33]

Note the team in 30th place. Bright side, I guess, is that the Wizards have been middle of the pack for the past 5 years, although they were in last place last season for their relationship between playing time and productivity (as measured by Wins Produced). I'm not a huge fan of Wins Produced, but as I mentioned above, I've run the numbers using other measures (including stat category by stat category) and our findings are consistent.

Interesting stuff. I wonder how accurate this study is when you look back using season averages.

For example, Kevin Seraphin posted nice wins produced numbers for Washington, but he did so based on the strength of his late season surge, when he was actually playing a lot of minutes. He wasn't as good earlier in the year so he didn't play as much. When you look at the year end data, it looks like Seraphin played really well but didn't play many minutes. But watching the season as it progressed, it seemed like the decisions around Seraphin's playing time were generally the right ones. He rode the pine early when he wasn't all that effective, and he played a ton late (even starting over Nene) once he got in a groove.

The same thing applies to Vesely, perhaps to an even greater extent.

Also, how does this get scored for a guy like James Singleton? He didn't play a lot of minutes because he was only with the team a short period of time.

[truwizfan4evr]

What's the odds of Beal starting the first game of the season? Jordan and Wall do not fit together in the starting lineup. Who would you guys start at shooting guard Beal, Webster or Crawford?

[Higga]

I'd rather just go ahead and start Beal. Yeah he's really young but he compliments Wall with his outside shooting and the best way to learn is by playing.

[veji1]

I would start Wall-Beal-Ariza-Nene-Okafor and fiddle around with the rotation quite a bit adjusting who ENDS the game to how it plays out... Beal should start not because he is the best player or has earned it or anything, but because he is, until proved wrong, the best middle term solution we have at this position.

[LyricalRico]

I would start Wall-Beal-Ariza-Nene-Okafor and fiddle around with the rotation quite a bit adjusting who ENDS the game to how it plays out... Beal should start not because he is the best player or has earned it or anything, but because he is, until proved wrong, the best middle term solution we have at this position.

Agreed. Barring injuries or somebody really surprising in training camp, I think that lineup should/will start the first game.

[payitforward]

...I wonder how accurate this study is when you look back using season averages.

For example, Kevin Seraphin posted nice wins produced numbers for Washington, but he did so based on the strength of his late season surge, when he was actually playing a lot of minutes. He wasn't as good earlier in the year so he didn't play as much....

Pushing the subject into methodology for a moment.... You don't have a basis for the above statement. For one thing, the early numbers, which to your point were few, present a small sample. We don't know how KS would have played in more minutes. Or rather... we do -- we look at all his minutes, and we see what they tell us. Otherwise, why not just take all the good games, and conclude from them that he's terrific. Then take all the bad games and conclude from them that he's a bum?

Moreover to make what is in essence a set of causal statements -- bad play early caused him to play little; good play late caused him to play more -- would require that we have *separate access* to the question of what is cause and what is effect. Otherwise, you can just as easily wind up reversing your statements -- they didn't let him play early, so he didn't produce; once he got minutes, he showed what he could do.

These kinds of narratives don't add anything to the numbers. Instead of explaining something, they simply add something else to be explained.

[Zonkerbl]

Well, then. Shall we start over?

[rockymac52]

Is it time to bring Satoransky over? Jeez...

[Nivek]

Is it time to bring Satoransky over? Jeez...

Bring him over?! Are you nuts?! We should be pleased with their foresight in doing draft & stash with Satoransky and with trading away the 46th pick. Could you imagine how awful things would be if they had another young player or two on the roster? They already had enough youngsters. They'll want to bring in a veteran.

I wonder if they could convince Sam Cassell to suit up.

[rockymac52]

Is it time to bring Satoransky over? Jeez...

Bring him over?! Are you nuts?! We should be pleased with their foresight in doing draft & stash with Satoransky and with trading away the 46th pick. Could you imagine how awful things would be if they had another young player or two on the roster? They already had enough youngsters. They'll want to bring in a veteran.

I wonder if they could convince Sam Cassell to suit up.

I wasn't serious. I like the Satoransky draft pick and the patience we're showing, and I do not want to rush him, nor do I think he'd actually help us at this point in time. I'm just panicking as the sky is falling and don't know what to do.

[montestewart]

Is it time to bring Satoransky over? Jeez...

Bring him over?! Are you nuts?! We should be pleased with their foresight in doing draft & stash with Satoransky and with trading away the 46th pick. Could you imagine how awful things would be if they had another young player or two on the roster? They already had enough youngsters. They'll want to bring in a veteran.

I wonder if they could convince Sam Cassell to suit up.

I wasn't serious. I like the Satoransky draft pick and the patience we're showing, and I do not want to rush him, nor do I think he'd actually help us at this point in time. I'm just panicking as the sky is falling and don't know what to do.

Is anyone really serious any more? Pass that joint.

[Zonkerbl]

Don't bogart that joint, my friend...
Pass it on over to me...

[hands11]

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2012/9/28 ... in/3187959

Grunfeld said the Wizards will sign someone else "if the right player becomes available

Wittman also discussed possibly running more of the offense through Nene in the high post, assuming Nene is healthy. Both men were also asked about the new role of Bradley Beal, and Grunfeld indicated he may do more playmaking.

"He's going to have to learn the natural position of the two-guard," Grunfeld said. "But [everything] remains to be seen"

[hands11]

Given what they will likely have to start the season, this is my guess as to how it pans out. Actually, I have no idea how it will pan out so I'm just posting some of the pieces.

Wall clearly will not be ready. That makes this even harder to guess.

Pargo is the most mature of the 3 PGs but he is not a starting PG. 6-1 185 . He isn't that big. He isn't that great a passer but he has played for some good teams. Seems ok as a 3 ball shooter. Seems like an ok back up PG who brings vet experience.

AJ 6-2 185. A little younger 26 but nothing to get excited about from what I can see. Not a good shooter. 2 assists in 12 minutes is nothing special but ok.

Mack 6-3 207. 22 yrs old. He has been coached by Randy the longest. While I was kind of looking for them to upgrade Mack with a vet back up PG for Wall, at this point, Mack may be their best hope to start while Wall is out. He didn't play well in summer ball but he did post 7 assists in 23 minutes in his first preseason game and he had zero turnovers. Now he shot like crap 1-6 but he was a .400 shooter last year and he used to be a decent shooter in college. Being so young, what he can do is not set in stone yet.

For SG, I was thinking they could wait on Beal if Wall was starting but with him out, I don't know if they have that luxury. Since Wall is out, I think Beal is much more likely to start. Specially if he continues to play well in preseason.

I tried to come up with line ups but its just to hard at his point. We don't even know if Nene will be ready. There are just so many ways Randy could do this. I don't envy the man. He has a lot to figure out.

One thing I think is clear, players need to step up and prove who should be playing. There is lots of competition at every spot expect for PG where it doesn't seem like any answer will be a good one until Wall returns.

[nate33]

It's too early to tell which PG will start and which SG will start. For now, we can only base our guess on one preseason game. Next game, Crawford might go for 30 and be back at the top of the list of potential SG starters.

[dobrojim]

or which 3/4/5 will start

that is what makes it so much fun!

[GhostsOfGil]

Based off the comments from Mike Lee, I highly doubt JC will start at the 1.

I have a feeling Mack will start simply because of his familiarity with the system which has been noted a few times by whit himself.

[hands11]

Well, we got Okafor into his first game in a Wiz uni game 4 of the preseason.

Starters were

Pargo
Beal
Webster
Ves
Okafor

Martin with back to back DNPs.

Since they should give him some burn in preseason, it might be time to let Crawford run the point more and get Martin some SG minutes. I think Crawford and Beal have more then enough handles to manage and it could open things up with them out there. Both can drive and pass.

4 more preseason games. Price started 2, Pargo started 2. Mack may be up next.

No rush to get C Singleton back until he is healthy. They have Webster/Trevor A to cover at SF for now.
But they have to get Booker out there. Can't have him and Kevin out at the same time while Nene is resting.

I heard them talking about Nene. Sounded like he is fine already by they are just being extra careful. Maybe he is actually ready when the season starts. I haven't heard anything definitive that says he won't be ready.

[nate33]

Martin with back to back DNPs.

This is a little surprising. Maybe it's because they already know what Martin can do in this system and they'd rather focus on integrating Ariza and Webster.

[closg00]

Totally agree Nate, I hope Martin does not end-up being cut do to the numbers game, I'd rather have Martin than Ariza in the rotation, but that's not going to happen.