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3rd Place in the east

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Re: 3rd Place in the east 

Post#46 » by dobrojim » Tue Dec 17, 2013 6:28 pm

Dat2U wrote:Agreed, It actually crushed me that we somehow managed to beat a horrible Knicks team by one point. It's like false hope. Hell, this entire season is about having enough false hope to go-all-in for the playoffs when in reality were really a 35 win team.


I get what you're saying but am still thinking baby steps/incremental improvement.

This was a game we would have lost traditionally.
My eyes were saying we were the better team and we were ahead more
than behind (WAG) so we 'should' have won. The ugly part is we should
have won by more than we did, up 15 early in the 2nd half and up 7 early/middle
of the 4th. But I'll take the 1 pt win especially after 3/4 losses were so close
and winnable. And to get the MSG monkey off our backs.

Against the easy schedule that being an eastern conference team confers,
I'm pretty sure we're more than a 35 win team. Unless Wall gets hurt. He's
indispensable with Maynor/Temple waiting in the wings. How much more than
35 wins remains to be seen as well as how high a seed we can manage. Anything above
7-8 gives us a legit shot to win a playoff round.
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Re: 3rd Place in the east 

Post#47 » by doclinkin » Wed Dec 18, 2013 3:29 am

dobrojim wrote:
Dat2U wrote:Agreed, It actually crushed me that we somehow managed to beat a horrible Knicks team by one point. It's like false hope. Hell, this entire season is about having enough false hope to go-all-in for the playoffs when in reality were really a 35 win team.


I get what you're saying but am still thinking baby steps/incremental improvement.

This was a game we would have lost traditionally.
My eyes were saying we were the better team and we were ahead more
than behind (WAG) so we 'should' have won. The ugly part is we should
have won by more than we did, up 15 early in the 2nd half and up 7 early/middle
of the 4th. But I'll take the 1 pt win especially after 3/4 losses were so close
and winnable. And to get the MSG monkey off our backs.

Against the easy schedule that being an eastern conference team confers,
I'm pretty sure we're more than a 35 win team. Unless Wall gets hurt. He's
indispensable with Maynor/Temple waiting in the wings. How much more than
35 wins remains to be seen as well as how high a seed we can manage. Anything above
7-8 gives us a legit shot to win a playoff round.


And that's all well and good for us to look back fondly in 3 years remembering that one time we made it to the playoffs and surprised somebody. Felt good about ourselves. Forced Ted's hand to re-ink the core starters at whatever the market price was (Ariza, Gortat) and renew GMEG and -- okay lost our draft pick...

... only to see the East seeded with franchise caliber-talent in the top 5 slots, who proceed to catch and pass us. And teams all around us grow comfortable scouting with advanced metrics in the Adam Silver era. And we rely on a scouting and talent evaluation department that amounts to expenses-paid trips to Treviso Italy, for that real eyes-on evaluation of what one sub-par talent looks like against other non-NBA euroscrubs.

Off and on I've been 'benefit-of-the-doubt' on both Ernie and Ted. Looking at the secret plan of designed futility, building a bench before recruiting top talent, so we can still select high draft picks while adding developing talent that either has a high home-run swing potential or high character glue guys that work hard but are not transcendent, just fit a hard hat culture. All of which would add good attitude and effort even while losing, preserving the chance at the truly transcendent talent needed to contend at the upper echelon --- so as not to get stuck in mediocrity. 'Suck until you suck lucky'. If that was the secret plan then great! John Wall, Brad Beal were strokes of luck. Whether or not this was the secret subtext, it was implicitly suggested in Ted's 10(-ish) point plan -- if he could execute it right.

But he was hemorrhaging corporate dollars to more attractive sporting events, losing box seats and sponsors and asses in the seats. So he flinched and allowed another 'all in for mediocrity' plan. Didn't want his high lotto talent to become disillusioned and accustomed to losing (in the 'taking my talents to South Beach' era). He flinched. Winced. Swerved. Could not hold true to the vision, and re-defined success multiple times, trying to buy his own bull[dumplings]. Tried to convince us he believed what he was saying. Tried to put a positive face on everything including failure.

And bless him, he continued the long Wiz/Bullet tradition of valuing loyalty above success. His 10 point plan states he wants his front office to be like an ethnic family, arguing vociferously at the dinner table, but defending each other in public. Contrast with Pat Riley who comes off as though he'd fire his nephew from the paper route if he had a Salvadoran family who would deliver the whole stack by 5AM for the cost of one plantain each. Yes you'd rather eat dinner with Ted. Unless winning a championship is the only food you are hungry for.

But worse yet, and here's the point where they lose me: Ted allowed both GM and Coach to enter a contract year with a win-now mandate : providing incentive for them to dump valuable assets for immediate gain. This with a coach who has a proven record of sucking at drafting, who therefor prefers to swap picks out for veteran players who can give immediate gain, if lower upside, who under a prior 'win-now' mandate TRADED STEF CURRY FOR A BUCKET OF DRIED COW CHIPS AND Mike MIller's stupid hairband.

Under this mandate ("win something or other") the coach will surely run the few reliable players he can trust into the ground, scratching desperately for wins to salvage his job here, or audition for his next position. And the GM is in an all-or-nothing shot to hang onto this job this year, since at his age and with his track record there may not be another kush front-office job waiting for him in this game. He will swap any future asset for any minimal gain, or to replace any burned out player the coach runs into the ground.

Clusterfelching all around.

Yes we may win one round, with all healthy. In a weakened East. But do we have the wind to sustain it? One leg of a relay race we can replay years later, and not even a bronze medal on the mantlepiece. But for 50 yards we were ahead of the pack weren't we? Well not ahead, but like neck and neck with that first guy on the Jamaican relay team, not Usain Bolt but like the guy nobody remembers, what's-his-name guy. Man we almost beat them then...

It's a weird feeling enjoying a win and feeling hollow about it. Wins without hope. Unless both Brad and John Wall take a remarkable leap every year, and, and... and.... can't see it.
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Re: 3rd Place in the east 

Post#48 » by long suffrin' boulez fan » Wed Dec 18, 2013 3:54 am

Doc. That might have been the best post ever. You basically summed it up. I'm in awe.
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Re: 3rd Place in the east 

Post#49 » by Ruzious » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:18 pm

doclinkin wrote:It's a weird feeling enjoying a win and feeling hollow about it. Wins without hope. Unless both Brad and John Wall take a remarkable leap every year, and, and... and.... can't see it.

That paragraph struck home. I'm feeling like we're re-living history - with the Gilbert/Jamison/Butler group getting us to .500 ball and then not being able to go any further. As long as Ted is satisfied with EG, we're likely never going to take the next step up. Maybe, to be happy fans, we change our expectations to be happy with a team that's watchable - rather than a team built to eventually compete for a championship. Some days I can do that, and some days I can't.
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Re: 3rd Place in the east 

Post#50 » by Dat2U » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:24 pm

doclinkin wrote:
dobrojim wrote:
Dat2U wrote:Agreed, It actually crushed me that we somehow managed to beat a horrible Knicks team by one point. It's like false hope. Hell, this entire season is about having enough false hope to go-all-in for the playoffs when in reality were really a 35 win team.


I get what you're saying but am still thinking baby steps/incremental improvement.

This was a game we would have lost traditionally.
My eyes were saying we were the better team and we were ahead more
than behind (WAG) so we 'should' have won. The ugly part is we should
have won by more than we did, up 15 early in the 2nd half and up 7 early/middle
of the 4th. But I'll take the 1 pt win especially after 3/4 losses were so close
and winnable. And to get the MSG monkey off our backs.

Against the easy schedule that being an eastern conference team confers,
I'm pretty sure we're more than a 35 win team. Unless Wall gets hurt. He's
indispensable with Maynor/Temple waiting in the wings. How much more than
35 wins remains to be seen as well as how high a seed we can manage. Anything above
7-8 gives us a legit shot to win a playoff round.


And that's all well and good for us to look back fondly in 3 years remembering that one time we made it to the playoffs and surprised somebody. Felt good about ourselves. Forced Ted's hand to re-ink the core starters at whatever the market price was (Ariza, Gortat) and renew GMEG and -- okay lost our draft pick...

... only to see the East seeded with franchise caliber-talent in the top 5 slots, who proceed to catch and pass us. And teams all around us grow comfortable scouting with advanced metrics in the Adam Silver era. And we rely on a scouting and talent evaluation department that amounts to expenses-paid trips to Treviso Italy, for that real eyes-on evaluation of what one sub-par talent looks like against other non-NBA euroscrubs.

Off and on I've been 'benefit-of-the-doubt' on both Ernie and Ted. Looking at the secret plan of designed futility, building a bench before recruiting top talent, so we can still select high draft picks while adding developing talent that either has a high home-run swing potential or high character glue guys that work hard but are not transcendent, just fit a hard hat culture. All of which would add good attitude and effort even while losing, preserving the chance at the truly transcendent talent needed to contend at the upper echelon --- so as not to get stuck in mediocrity. 'Suck until you suck lucky'. If that was the secret plan then great! John Wall, Brad Beal were strokes of luck. Whether or not this was the secret subtext, it was implicitly suggested in Ted's 10(-ish) point plan -- if he could execute it right.

But he was hemorrhaging corporate dollars to more attractive sporting events, losing box seats and sponsors and asses in the seats. So he flinched and allowed another 'all in for mediocrity' plan. Didn't want his high lotto talent to become disillusioned and accustomed to losing (in the 'taking my talents to South Beach' era). He flinched. Winced. Swerved. Could not hold true to the vision, and re-defined success multiple times, trying to buy his own bull[dumplings]. Tried to convince us he believed what he was saying. Tried to put a positive face on everything including failure.

And bless him, he continued the long Wiz/Bullet tradition of valuing loyalty above success. His 10 point plan states he wants his front office to be like an ethnic family, arguing vociferously at the dinner table, but defending each other in public. Contrast with Pat Riley who comes off as though he'd fire his nephew from the paper route if he had a Salvadoran family who would deliver the whole stack by 5AM for the cost of one plantain each. Yes you'd rather eat dinner with Ted. Unless winning a championship is the only food you are hungry for.

But worse yet, and here's the point where they lose me: Ted allowed both GM and Coach to enter a contract year with a win-now mandate : providing incentive for them to dump valuable assets for immediate gain. This with a coach who has a proven record of sucking at drafting, who therefor prefers to swap picks out for veteran players who can give immediate gain, if lower upside, who under a prior 'win-now' mandate TRADED STEF CURRY FOR A BUCKET OF DRIED COW CHIPS AND Mike MIller's stupid hairband.

Under this mandate ("win something or other") the coach will surely run the few reliable players he can trust into the ground, scratching desperately for wins to salvage his job here, or audition for his next position. And the GM is in an all-or-nothing shot to hang onto this job this year, since at his age and with his track record there may not be another kush front-office job waiting for him in this game. He will swap any future asset for any minimal gain, or to replace any burned out player the coach runs into the ground.

Clusterfelching all around.

Yes we may win one round, with all healthy. In a weakened East. But do we have the wind to sustain it? One leg of a relay race we can replay years later, and not even a bronze medal on the mantlepiece. But for 50 yards we were ahead of the pack weren't we? Well not ahead, but like neck and neck with that first guy on the Jamaican relay team, not Usain Bolt but like the guy nobody remembers, what's-his-name guy. Man we almost beat them then...

It's a weird feeling enjoying a win and feeling hollow about it. Wins without hope. Unless both Brad and John Wall take a remarkable leap every year, and, and... and.... can't see it.


Dude, I'd give you 20 and1s if I could. You really captured how I feel. HOF post!
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Re: 3rd Place in the east 

Post#51 » by nate33 » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:42 pm

Nivek wrote:
nate33 wrote:When Nene plays, we go 6 deep in legit, starting-caliber players, Booker is our 7th, and he's a legit rotation-caliber player on most teams. Temple, Rice and Vesely wouldn't be 8th man on any decent team, but at least they're playing like the deserve to be on someone's bench rather than the D-League.


I really don't agree about the bench being improved -- at least until Nene gets back. At full health, they have a good top 7. Temple and Rice are awful -- 12th men or lower. Vesely would make a decent 10th or 11th man in a 9 or 10 man rotation. As bad as Maynor has been, Temple continues to be even less productive.

I'd recommend they start cutting some of the dead weight and dig into the D-League, but they're up against the luxury tax.

That's pretty much what I said. 7 deep with Nene healthy. Vesely, Temple and Rice are playing a little better of late so that maybe they are "12th-man-ish" caliber rather than "replaceable by D-League" caliber.
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Re: 3rd Place in the east 

Post#52 » by nate33 » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:46 pm

doclinkin wrote:Yes we may win one round, with all healthy. In a weakened East. But do we have the wind to sustain it? One leg of a relay race we can replay years later, and not even a bronze medal on the mantlepiece. But for 50 yards we were ahead of the pack weren't we? Well not ahead, but like neck and neck with that first guy on the Jamaican relay team, not Usain Bolt but like the guy nobody remembers, what's-his-name guy. Man we almost beat them then...

It's a weird feeling enjoying a win and feeling hollow about it. Wins without hope. Unless both Brad and John Wall take a remarkable leap every year, and, and... and.... can't see it.

Yup.

I think our only real hope is to cobble together the few assets we have left (Porter and our capacity to take on a little extra salary going forward) and try and trade them for a young big man who at least has the potential to be a top 10ish player at their position for the next 7 years or so. The only real candidates I see are Monroe or Sanders. Maybe something involving Gortat for Adams + Perkins if one is optimistic about Adams.
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Re: 3rd Place in the east 

Post#53 » by Nivek » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:56 pm

I don't see the same signs from Temple and Rice. They both look D-League replaceable. Rice had a decent game, but he's been pretty bad. Does have potential, of course. Would love to see Temple get back to the level he performed at last season, which was roughly 10th man. This season, he's very replaceable by a D-League type. Vesely seems to have leveled off at 11th man quality.
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Re: 3rd Place in the east 

Post#54 » by fishercob » Wed Dec 18, 2013 3:24 pm

nate33 wrote:
doclinkin wrote:Yes we may win one round, with all healthy. In a weakened East. But do we have the wind to sustain it? One leg of a relay race we can replay years later, and not even a bronze medal on the mantlepiece. But for 50 yards we were ahead of the pack weren't we? Well not ahead, but like neck and neck with that first guy on the Jamaican relay team, not Usain Bolt but like the guy nobody remembers, what's-his-name guy. Man we almost beat them then...

It's a weird feeling enjoying a win and feeling hollow about it. Wins without hope. Unless both Brad and John Wall take a remarkable leap every year, and, and... and.... can't see it.

Yup.

I think our only real hope is to cobble together the few assets we have left (Porter and our capacity to take on a little extra salary going forward) and try and trade them for a young big man who at least has the potential to be a top 10ish player at their position for the next 7 years or so. The only real candidates I see are Monroe or Sanders. Maybe something involving Gortat for Adams + Perkins if one is optimistic about Adams.


While I feel a lot of what doc feels -- and what you, Nivek, Ruzious, Dat, et al feel --I don't agree about "our only real hope."

The second half of the first round of drafts (and later) are littered with guys who have or may soon become key components on contenders -- Hibbert, Boozer, Terrence Jones, Vucevic, Faired, Reggie Jackson, Jimmy Butler, Bledsoe, Lance Stephenson, Lawson, Taj Gibson, Danny Green , Ryan Anderson, Pekovic, Ibaka, Batum, Asik, Deandre Jordan, Dragic, Afflalo, Splitter, M. Gasol, Rondo, Lowry, Millsap, Amir Johnson, Gortat, Blatche, Danny Granger, David Lee, Ilyasova, Monta Ellis, Varejao, Josh Smith, Ariza, Parker, Ginobili...

Martell Webster was signed for peanuts off scrap heap and retained with the MLE. David West, Ryan Anderson, JJ Hickson, Wilson Chandler, Paul Millsap, Iguodala, Asik, Lin, Dwight Howard were all signed into cap space.

So we'll have plenty of chances to significantly upgrade the team while Wall and Beal are both really good. I think our best chance -- clearly-- is for Ted to replace Ernie with someone better so that the Wizards avoid the Maynors, Singletons, etc. and choose better players. And that's my sincere hope. But even so, the possibility exists that Ernie will get lucky, and be that guy that everyone hates at the poker table who leaves not only with a bunch of chips, but the notion that he's much smarter than he actually is.
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Re: 3rd Place in the east 

Post#55 » by fishercob » Wed Dec 18, 2013 3:25 pm

Nivek wrote:I don't see the same signs from Temple and Rice. They both look D-League replaceable. Rice had a decent game, but he's been pretty bad. Does have potential, of course. Would love to see Temple get back to the level he performed at last season, which was roughly 10th man. This season, he's very replaceable by a D-League type. Vesely seems to have leveled off at 11th man quality.


Do you have enough data to make definitive "calls" on Temple and Rice? That is to say, if you were appointed GM today, would you cut them for two guys who were tearing up the D-League?
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Re: 3rd Place in the east 

Post#56 » by montestewart » Wed Dec 18, 2013 3:25 pm

Dat2U wrote:
doclinkin wrote:
dobrojim wrote:
I get what you're saying but am still thinking baby steps/incremental improvement.

This was a game we would have lost traditionally.
My eyes were saying we were the better team and we were ahead more
than behind (WAG) so we 'should' have won. The ugly part is we should
have won by more than we did, up 15 early in the 2nd half and up 7 early/middle
of the 4th. But I'll take the 1 pt win especially after 3/4 losses were so close
and winnable. And to get the MSG monkey off our backs.

Against the easy schedule that being an eastern conference team confers,
I'm pretty sure we're more than a 35 win team. Unless Wall gets hurt. He's
indispensable with Maynor/Temple waiting in the wings. How much more than
35 wins remains to be seen as well as how high a seed we can manage. Anything above
7-8 gives us a legit shot to win a playoff round.


And that's all well and good for us to look back fondly in 3 years remembering that one time we made it to the playoffs and surprised somebody. Felt good about ourselves. Forced Ted's hand to re-ink the core starters at whatever the market price was (Ariza, Gortat) and renew GMEG and -- okay lost our draft pick...

... only to see the East seeded with franchise caliber-talent in the top 5 slots, who proceed to catch and pass us. And teams all around us grow comfortable scouting with advanced metrics in the Adam Silver era. And we rely on a scouting and talent evaluation department that amounts to expenses-paid trips to Treviso Italy, for that real eyes-on evaluation of what one sub-par talent looks like against other non-NBA euroscrubs.

Off and on I've been 'benefit-of-the-doubt' on both Ernie and Ted. Looking at the secret plan of designed futility, building a bench before recruiting top talent, so we can still select high draft picks while adding developing talent that either has a high home-run swing potential or high character glue guys that work hard but are not transcendent, just fit a hard hat culture. All of which would add good attitude and effort even while losing, preserving the chance at the truly transcendent talent needed to contend at the upper echelon --- so as not to get stuck in mediocrity. 'Suck until you suck lucky'. If that was the secret plan then great! John Wall, Brad Beal were strokes of luck. Whether or not this was the secret subtext, it was implicitly suggested in Ted's 10(-ish) point plan -- if he could execute it right.

But he was hemorrhaging corporate dollars to more attractive sporting events, losing box seats and sponsors and asses in the seats. So he flinched and allowed another 'all in for mediocrity' plan. Didn't want his high lotto talent to become disillusioned and accustomed to losing (in the 'taking my talents to South Beach' era). He flinched. Winced. Swerved. Could not hold true to the vision, and re-defined success multiple times, trying to buy his own bull[dumplings]. Tried to convince us he believed what he was saying. Tried to put a positive face on everything including failure.

And bless him, he continued the long Wiz/Bullet tradition of valuing loyalty above success. His 10 point plan states he wants his front office to be like an ethnic family, arguing vociferously at the dinner table, but defending each other in public. Contrast with Pat Riley who comes off as though he'd fire his nephew from the paper route if he had a Salvadoran family who would deliver the whole stack by 5AM for the cost of one plantain each. Yes you'd rather eat dinner with Ted. Unless winning a championship is the only food you are hungry for.

But worse yet, and here's the point where they lose me: Ted allowed both GM and Coach to enter a contract year with a win-now mandate : providing incentive for them to dump valuable assets for immediate gain. This with a coach who has a proven record of sucking at drafting, who therefor prefers to swap picks out for veteran players who can give immediate gain, if lower upside, who under a prior 'win-now' mandate TRADED STEF CURRY FOR A BUCKET OF DRIED COW CHIPS AND Mike MIller's stupid hairband.

Under this mandate ("win something or other") the coach will surely run the few reliable players he can trust into the ground, scratching desperately for wins to salvage his job here, or audition for his next position. And the GM is in an all-or-nothing shot to hang onto this job this year, since at his age and with his track record there may not be another kush front-office job waiting for him in this game. He will swap any future asset for any minimal gain, or to replace any burned out player the coach runs into the ground.

Clusterfelching all around.

Yes we may win one round, with all healthy. In a weakened East. But do we have the wind to sustain it? One leg of a relay race we can replay years later, and not even a bronze medal on the mantlepiece. But for 50 yards we were ahead of the pack weren't we? Well not ahead, but like neck and neck with that first guy on the Jamaican relay team, not Usain Bolt but like the guy nobody remembers, what's-his-name guy. Man we almost beat them then...

It's a weird feeling enjoying a win and feeling hollow about it. Wins without hope. Unless both Brad and John Wall take a remarkable leap every year, and, and... and.... can't see it.


Dude, I'd give you 20 and1s if I could. You really captured how I feel. HOF post!

Done
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Re: 3rd Place in the east 

Post#57 » by Nivek » Wed Dec 18, 2013 3:29 pm

fishercob wrote:
Nivek wrote:I don't see the same signs from Temple and Rice. They both look D-League replaceable. Rice had a decent game, but he's been pretty bad. Does have potential, of course. Would love to see Temple get back to the level he performed at last season, which was roughly 10th man. This season, he's very replaceable by a D-League type. Vesely seems to have leveled off at 11th man quality.


Do you have enough data to make definitive "calls" on Temple and Rice? That is to say, if you were appointed GM today, would you cut them for two guys who were tearing up the D-League?


I'd be willing to cut Temple to sign a D-League player. I think Rice has enough potential to warrant giving him more time. I'd also be willing to cut one or more from the group of Seraphin, Harrington, and Singleton. I'd say Maynor too, but he is signed for next season and his salary could be included to balance out a possible trade.
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Re: 3rd Place in the east 

Post#58 » by Dat2U » Wed Dec 18, 2013 3:35 pm

fishercob wrote:
nate33 wrote:
doclinkin wrote:Yes we may win one round, with all healthy. In a weakened East. But do we have the wind to sustain it? One leg of a relay race we can replay years later, and not even a bronze medal on the mantlepiece. But for 50 yards we were ahead of the pack weren't we? Well not ahead, but like neck and neck with that first guy on the Jamaican relay team, not Usain Bolt but like the guy nobody remembers, what's-his-name guy. Man we almost beat them then...

It's a weird feeling enjoying a win and feeling hollow about it. Wins without hope. Unless both Brad and John Wall take a remarkable leap every year, and, and... and.... can't see it.

Yup.

I think our only real hope is to cobble together the few assets we have left (Porter and our capacity to take on a little extra salary going forward) and try and trade them for a young big man who at least has the potential to be a top 10ish player at their position for the next 7 years or so. The only real candidates I see are Monroe or Sanders. Maybe something involving Gortat for Adams + Perkins if one is optimistic about Adams.


While I feel a lot of what doc feels -- and what you, Nivek, Ruzious, Dat, et al feel --I don't agree about "our only real hope."

The second half of the first round of drafts (and later) are littered with guys who have or may soon become key components on contenders -- Hibbert, Boozer, Terrence Jones, Vucevic, Faired, Reggie Jackson, Jimmy Butler, Bledsoe, Lance Stephenson, Lawson, Taj Gibson, Danny Green , Ryan Anderson, Pekovic, Ibaka, Batum, Asik, Deandre Jordan, Dragic, Afflalo, Splitter, M. Gasol, Rondo, Lowry, Millsap, Amir Johnson, Gortat, Blatche, Danny Granger, David Lee, Ilyasova, Monta Ellis, Varejao, Josh Smith, Ariza, Parker, Ginobili...

Martell Webster was signed for peanuts off scrap heap and retained with the MLE. David West, Ryan Anderson, JJ Hickson, Wilson Chandler, Paul Millsap, Iguodala, Asik, Lin, Dwight Howard were all signed into cap space.

So we'll have plenty of chances to significantly upgrade the team while Wall and Beal are both really good. I think our best chance -- clearly-- is for Ted to replace Ernie with someone better so that the Wizards avoid the Maynors, Singletons, etc. and choose better players. And that's my sincere hope. But even so, the possibility exists that Ernie will get lucky, and be that guy that everyone hates at the poker table who leaves not only with a bunch of chips, but the notion that he's much smarter than he actually is.


So now were relying on Ernie getting lucky? Good luck with that. I can't buy what your selling. If anything, Ernie & the crew are inept enough to ensure that our ceiling only gets lower from here on out.

We were running our 20 yr old in the ground at 40 minutes per for godsakes. You got a retread coach sacrificing any and every asset possible in a desperate effort to save his & his bosses' job. Nene was playing 35+ minutes when he should be getting 24-28 minutes a night at the most. Wall is generally gassed at the end of games because he's asked to do everything under the sun for 40 minutes and more just to keep this thing afloat.

This is not a recipe for success or even accidental success as what some appear to be hoping for. It's a recipe for disaster and it's only a matter of time before that happens.
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Re: 3rd Place in the east 

Post#59 » by dobrojim » Wed Dec 18, 2013 3:44 pm

not expecting EG to get lucky either. Surest path to future success would
be for Ted to fire EG sooner rather than later.

our next best chance is for Wall to continue to improve over the next 2-4 years
and for Beal/Porter or maybe someone else to also improve in a quantum sort of way.
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Re: 3rd Place in the east 

Post#60 » by fishercob » Wed Dec 18, 2013 3:48 pm

Dat2U wrote:
fishercob wrote:
nate33 wrote:Yup.

I think our only real hope is to cobble together the few assets we have left (Porter and our capacity to take on a little extra salary going forward) and try and trade them for a young big man who at least has the potential to be a top 10ish player at their position for the next 7 years or so. The only real candidates I see are Monroe or Sanders. Maybe something involving Gortat for Adams + Perkins if one is optimistic about Adams.


While I feel a lot of what doc feels -- and what you, Nivek, Ruzious, Dat, et al feel --I don't agree about "our only real hope."

The second half of the first round of drafts (and later) are littered with guys who have or may soon become key components on contenders -- Hibbert, Boozer, Terrence Jones, Vucevic, Faired, Reggie Jackson, Jimmy Butler, Bledsoe, Lance Stephenson, Lawson, Taj Gibson, Danny Green , Ryan Anderson, Pekovic, Ibaka, Batum, Asik, Deandre Jordan, Dragic, Afflalo, Splitter, M. Gasol, Rondo, Lowry, Millsap, Amir Johnson, Gortat, Blatche, Danny Granger, David Lee, Ilyasova, Monta Ellis, Varejao, Josh Smith, Ariza, Parker, Ginobili...

Martell Webster was signed for peanuts off scrap heap and retained with the MLE. David West, Ryan Anderson, JJ Hickson, Wilson Chandler, Paul Millsap, Iguodala, Asik, Lin, Dwight Howard were all signed into cap space.

So we'll have plenty of chances to significantly upgrade the team while Wall and Beal are both really good. I think our best chance -- clearly-- is for Ted to replace Ernie with someone better so that the Wizards avoid the Maynors, Singletons, etc. and choose better players. And that's my sincere hope. But even so, the possibility exists that Ernie will get lucky, and be that guy that everyone hates at the poker table who leaves not only with a bunch of chips, but the notion that he's much smarter than he actually is.


So now were relying on Ernie getting lucky? Good luck with that. I can't buy what your selling. If anything, Ernie & the crew are inept enough to ensure that our ceiling only gets lower from here on out.

We were running our 20 yr old in the ground at 40 minutes per for godsakes. You got a retread coach sacrificing any and every asset possible in a desperate effort to save his & his bosses' job. Nene was playing 35+ minutes when he should be getting 24-28 minutes a night at the most. Wall is generally gassed at the end of games because he's asked to do everything under the sun for 40 minutes and more just to keep this thing afloat.

This is not a recipe for success or even accidental success as what some appear to be hoping for. It's a recipe for disaster and it's only a matter of time before that happens.


The only thing I'm selling is that there will be other opportunities to improve the team other than the scenario nate laid out. I'm not disagreeing with anything you say about wanting Ernie gone, minute loads, etc.

With Booker out of Witt's doghouse and contributing, we are slowly arriving at a point where many hoped we'd be when the season was starting -- a solid 7 man rotation with Booker and Webster capably contributing off the bench, and the opportunity to play Porter with good players so as to get him up to speed sooner rather than later. The error margin is still razor thin and contributions from anyone outside our top 7 are unreliable. Nothing to celebrate over. No clear and easy path to huge improvement. But enjoyable to watch with hope for the future if things break right.
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Re: 3rd Place in the east 

Post#61 » by Ruzious » Wed Dec 18, 2013 4:04 pm

fishercob wrote:The second half of the first round of drafts (and later) are littered with guys who have or may soon become key components on contenders -- Hibbert, Boozer, Terrence Jones, Vucevic, Faired, Reggie Jackson, Jimmy Butler, Bledsoe, Lance Stephenson, Lawson, Taj Gibson, Danny Green , Ryan Anderson, Pekovic, Ibaka, Batum, Asik, Deandre Jordan, Dragic, Afflalo, Splitter, M. Gasol, Rondo, Lowry, Millsap, Amir Johnson, Gortat, Blatche, Danny Granger, David Lee, Ilyasova, Monta Ellis, Varejao, Josh Smith, Ariza, Parker, Ginobili...

If we're lucky, we make the playoffs this season and don't... get one of those 2nd half of the 1st round picks. It's another catch 22.
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Re: 3rd Place in the east 

Post#62 » by fishercob » Wed Dec 18, 2013 4:13 pm

Ruzious wrote:
fishercob wrote:The second half of the first round of drafts (and later) are littered with guys who have or may soon become key components on contenders -- Hibbert, Boozer, Terrence Jones, Vucevic, Faired, Reggie Jackson, Jimmy Butler, Bledsoe, Lance Stephenson, Lawson, Taj Gibson, Danny Green , Ryan Anderson, Pekovic, Ibaka, Batum, Asik, Deandre Jordan, Dragic, Afflalo, Splitter, M. Gasol, Rondo, Lowry, Millsap, Amir Johnson, Gortat, Blatche, Danny Granger, David Lee, Ilyasova, Monta Ellis, Varejao, Josh Smith, Ariza, Parker, Ginobili...

If we're lucky, we make the playoffs this season and don't... get one of those 2nd half of the 1st round picks. It's another catch 22.


I understand. They're going to keep going with the amateur draft after this season though, so huzzah! Kidding aside, Wall and Beal are babies by NBA standards. Paul George was the only young player who starred for one of the final four teams last year. There is both time and opportunity to improve the roster significantly.
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Re: 3rd Place in the east 

Post#63 » by Ruzious » Wed Dec 18, 2013 4:35 pm

fishercob wrote:
Ruzious wrote:
fishercob wrote:The second half of the first round of drafts (and later) are littered with guys who have or may soon become key components on contenders -- Hibbert, Boozer, Terrence Jones, Vucevic, Faired, Reggie Jackson, Jimmy Butler, Bledsoe, Lance Stephenson, Lawson, Taj Gibson, Danny Green , Ryan Anderson, Pekovic, Ibaka, Batum, Asik, Deandre Jordan, Dragic, Afflalo, Splitter, M. Gasol, Rondo, Lowry, Millsap, Amir Johnson, Gortat, Blatche, Danny Granger, David Lee, Ilyasova, Monta Ellis, Varejao, Josh Smith, Ariza, Parker, Ginobili...

If we're lucky, we make the playoffs this season and don't... get one of those 2nd half of the 1st round picks. It's another catch 22.


I understand. They're going to keep going with the amateur draft after this season though, so huzzah! Kidding aside, Wall and Beal are babies by NBA standards. Paul George was the only young player who starred for one of the final four teams last year. There is both time and opportunity to improve the roster significantly.

The babies aren't getting paid like babies. But the real problem is - we have a GM who's going to likely get more job security because they won't get that 2nd half of the first round pick. Is it too late for Joseph Heller to write a sequel? Catch 44?
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Re: 3rd Place in the east 

Post#64 » by montestewart » Wed Dec 18, 2013 5:03 pm

fishercob, I agree with you that there are many avenues to a return to true contender status after 30+ years, or even a return to a team that appear competent and ascending upward, without built-in physical or payroll/roster fragility. Some of these paths may be very reasonable and legitimate hopes, some may be ridiculous long shots.

For me (and probably for many others) it's hard to see how any these paths can successfully play out until EG is out of the picture. To me, he is like a big pimple on my upper cheek, and no matter which way I am turned and what I am looking at, I still see him in the picture.

Once EG is gone, I think I will probably briefly embrace an irrational optimism, wherein all things are possible, before settling into a "Finally! Now let's see what GM [whoever] and coach [whoever] can do!"
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Re: 3rd Place in the east 

Post#65 » by nate33 » Wed Dec 18, 2013 5:30 pm

I think "pretty good" veteran teams without a top tier superstar tend to stay "pretty good" and rarely move up to "contender" status.

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