Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza

[GhostsOfGil]

Draft Beal. John Wall should improve his shooting and consistency, then someone smells playoffs?

Love you sig

[Spence]

The thing I really don't get about Hollinger's article is why he thinks having tons of cap space is a guarantor of great success. Who has it ever worked for besides the Heat? How happy is Anthony Davis going to be having cap space for teammates? For someone who's supposedly all about numbers, Hollinger seems awfully biased and emotional a lot of the time.

I noted that he called Randy Wittman "a bad coach." I wonder why he thinks that. He doesn't explain. Perhaps he believes not famous equals not good. Can't tell because he doesn't explain himself.

[Spence]

Debating this trade is like boxing with phantoms. The result of this deal is being compared against deals that have not been made. [And now, never will be made.] It'd be helpful in assessing this trade to compare it to the deals that might have been done instead.

Who has that information? Anyone know in fairly precise detail exactly what deals the Wizards could have made or that they turned down in favor of this one? Actual players and actual contracts would be helpful. Thanks.

[Bickerstaff]

The more I read on this thread the more I want to like this trade just because the people who don't like it are so insufferably arrogant and rude.

Yup. My immediate reaction to this trade was confusion. Then, because I am not insane and understand there is absolutely nothing I can do about it but hope for the best, I resigned myself to it, but still hoped that this was the first in a series of moves. Then I came here and saw all these self-styled experts (who I guess are TOO smart to get jobs working in the NBA) going into their typical histrionics, and it made me want to support the trade out of spite.

Some people have all the answers before the question's even asked.

[Ruzious]

How dare people have opinions and actually express them. That's not what an internet message board is for, people! Speaking of which, I sent Ted a T-mail expressing why I didn't like the trade, and he already responded - nothing earth-shattering or inspiring - saying he "obviously disagrees" and thanking me for "caring and sharing" - but it's nice to get an e-mail from the owner's e-mail account.

Don't worry about Spence--he just doesn't understand the trade yet.

EXACTLY!

Actually, I did miss the point of an internet message board. I thought the point was to express opinions, but, as Ruzious has pointed out, the point is actually to express your opinions as obnoxiously as possible.

Mission accomplished!

Meh, the obnoxious part is more of a colateral benefit than a purpose. But it's nice to know my work is appreciated.

[fishercob]

The very simple reason to not like this trade comes down to two words: opportunity cost.

BOYD deals, front-loaded contracts, opportunistic trades, amnesty signings, FA targets -- all of those things are significantly impeded by a move that would seem at first glance to carry little upside. So that stings.

Both closg00 and hands11 made mention of the fact that this trade is somehow reflective of Ted being cheap. This is simply preposterous. He agreed to pay and additional $30M and be at or above the salary cap for the next two seasons. Foolish? Maybe. Cheap? Absolutely not.

Ted made the point in his blog post about him liking this deal because free agency requires longer term commitments to players (and thus carries bigger risks), so in essence, he's cool with overpaying these two guys because it's only two years. But let me ask you this -- lets say it took a MAX deal to sign Batum and have Portland not match. That's a clear overpay -- but isn't it LESS of an overpay that what we're giving Ariza and Oak -- and at least Batum is coming into his prime and really good? Overpaying a FA could be equally as bad, I suppose. It could get ugly in the out years and his next contract would be really ugly, so I don't know.

As nate said, I think Okafor could be movable for a better fit -- especially if the team is going well. That seems to inflate guys' value. The other thing is that I think there's at least a reasonable chance that Ariza doesn't exercise his player option next year. Jameer Nelson just walked away from $8.5M because he wanted to choose his team rather than be traded. Ramon Sessions just opted out, as did Gerald Wallace. This is Ariza's 5th team in what will be his 8th season. He's a west coast guy and he may not want to go into next season as an expiring contract, a la Nelson. If he opts out he won't get the same starting salary that he'd be walking away from, but he'll get more guaranteed money via a multi-year deal. Plus, he'll have earned $37M over his career, so a marginal few million bucks might not be the only thing guiding his decision (family, location, etc.)

We all, myself included, spend so much time playing arm chair GM that we sometimes lose site of the "fan" aspect of things. I do think that on a night to night basis this coming season, the Wizards are going to be more fun -- entertaining -- to watch. I think they'll look like a credible NBA team and that the romper room shenanigans are a way of the past. The days of Drew Gooden, Elton Brand, Big Baby, Jason Maxiell and Kris Humphries et al going for their season or career highs on us are over. That is not to say that I like this trade (I don't), but the act of watching and attending games should be more enjoyable next year.

[Spence]

Meh, the obnoxious part is more of a colateral benefit than a purpose. But it's nice to know my work is appreciated.

Ruz, your work has always been appreciated by me, but you're pretty much a rank amateur in this area. Was thinking of others when I wrote that, but now you've got a goal to shoot for. I trust your shot selection is better than Ariza's.

[fishercob]

How dare people have opinions and actually express them. That's not what an internet message board is for, people! Speaking of which, I sent Ted a T-mail expressing why I didn't like the trade, and he already responded - nothing earth-shattering or inspiring - saying he "obviously disagrees" and thanking me for "caring and sharing" - but it's nice to get an e-mail from the owner's e-mail account.

You wouldn't mind posting the email you sent him, do you? I'm curious as to how you worded it.

Ted uses canned responses to certain categories of emails that he receives and he isn't the person responding a lot of the time. I compared an email that I received in-response to Ernie's extension with a friend who received the same email. The entire response machinery is just an arm of his PR operation.

Or he may just type the same one sentence responses to stupid messages. I got longish thoughtful responses from him all the time.

[tontoz]

Debating this trade is like boxing with phantoms. The result of this deal is being compared against deals that have not been made. [And now, never will be made.] It'd be helpful in assessing this trade to compare it to the deals that might have been done instead.

Who has that information? Anyone know in fairly precise detail exactly what deals the Wizards could have made or that they turned down in favor of this one? Actual players and actual contracts would be helpful. Thanks.

Do you not realize how dumb this is? How many people saw the Nene deal coming? How many people saw Kwame for Butler? Kwame was then traded for Pau Gasol lol.

Good players can and frequently do come from trades that nobody saw coming.

[AWIZZINGBULLET]

I'm confused as to why the Wizards do this trade...

I like the fact that you've added veterans, but dislike the fact that you've added them at positions which dont need them, which has created a logjam at center.

The cap room from Shard's contract is basilly destroyed as well, limiting the flexibility of the Wizards.

On the birghyt side however, maybe all this team needs is more vets, and it means that EG certainly expects the Wizards to be in the playoffs next season.

The assumption is that Okafor will spend most of his time at center, for all you know he may serve as backup to Trevor Booker at PF, whie Nene and Seraphin play center. Perhaps he backs up Nene and Seraphin plays the starting PF position. Contract aside, the addition of Okafor was a good one because there was no proven veteran help other than Nene from the PF position on down.

Well, just for starters, James Singleton is a better player right now than Emeka Okafor, and surely this trade makes it unlikely we re-sign him.

I can't agree with that until I see what Okafor does in the lineup---they're different type of players. Okafor is an established player in the league whose addition addresses an area you know he excels at. James Singleton is a good player, I'd have no problem with him returning because he's valuable; but I think Okafor if healthy, is the bigger asset. Maybe it's just me, I've always felt James Singleton was versatile and athletic enough to play the 3 spot, perhaps he gets back in through there.

[closg00]

I've taken a day to cool off and try to rationally justify this trade, but I just can't. It's so bad it's hard to get my mind around it.

The ONLY justification is that we turned deadweight salary into relatively competent (albeit absurdly overpriced) players. Instead of paying Rashard Lewis $13.7M to go away, we will pay Okafor and Ariza $42M to be average players. So at best, it's like paying $15M a year for two average players for 2 years. That's pretty bad but I suppose it could be worse.

The real problem is that the players, Okafor in particular, aren't any better than what we've already got at the position. We are paying $15M a year for two average players who don't add anything.

What gives me a small amount of hope is the fact that Okafor is probably movable. Competent big men are so rare in this league that some teams are willing to pay a ton for them. If Okafor can be traded for a shooter (preferably Kevin Martin) then it might not be such an unmitigated disaster. One can justify paying $15M a year for two average players if those players at least fill a need.

If we traded Okafor plus Crawford for Kevin Martin, and drafted Beal, our lineup would look like this:

PG Wall/Mack
SG Martin/Beal
SF Ariza/Crowder/Singleton
PF Booker/Vesely/Singleton
C Nene/Seraphin

That's a pretty good team with some experienced veterans in the starting lineup and good youth on the 2nd unit.

Same here, the rational mind is waiting until after draft night to see if our roster will have any semblance of balance at the end of the day, until then, WTF!

[hands11]

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2357

There's also the question of how Ariza and Okafor fit with the Wizards. Conventional wisdom has quickly imagined Okafor and Nenê playing together in the Washington frontcourt. Consider me skeptical. Neither player has defended power forwards on a regular basis in years, and neither really has the kind of midrange game required of modern fours. If Okafor and Nenê can only play the middle, suddenly the Wizards have sunk $27 million a year into the center position.

Ariza's inefficient scoring doesn't exactly solve Washington's offensive issues, especially because he's a relative non-shooter at small forward.

Nene showed us a very nice mid range game last year. And Okafor is a solid rebounder. Something we needed. Oka will be 30 by the time the season starts and he is coming off the knee injury. No one says he is going to start. Kevin will not concede his minutes. Ves neither. Those two have something to fight for now. It also give C Singleton something to fight for. That is not a bad thing. If these younger players really want it, they have to fight for it. Chris with an outside shoot could even still win the starting role.

Wall/Mack
Crawford/Beal/Mason - until Beal wins the starting job
Trevor/C Singleton - now Chris has someone to beat out.
Nene/Booker/Dray
Ves/Kevin/Okafor

They could end up starting the same line up they ended with last year except with Beal eventually starting at SG instead of Crawford. Who doesn't like that ? They played well to end the year. The defense was good and they won at a good clip. Now they just have more depth and no Lewis 21M dead contract.

That team is going to be good defensively which is a good place to start. They are still plenty young and athletic still. They didn't lose any young talent. Beal adds the outside shooting they needed at SG at 18 years old. Mason can spot up and spread the floor still as a back up and Beal tutor. Crawford can scrap and drive. He can still improve his game and value. They are outfitted pretty well at guard. Wall is a stud PG who showed sign of being a good court manager to end the year and I expect his shot will only get better. And they are all kind of loaded in the front court. Basically they just added vet depth and broke up one useless huge contract of Lewis for two smaller ones that could be used in a trade if needed. They have plenty of power in Nene, Kevin and Oka. Booker and Ves are energy guys. Book is a beast and Ves was adding strenth. And they still have Dray who is 6-11 who will return in better shape. Plus now they added a vet who can rebound and defend in Oka.

Wall and the other young players need playoff experience to grow. Its hard for me to see how that team doesn't make the playoffs the next two years. Then Oka, Trevor and Mason drop off and the young player can keep it going. It is a different design then Gil, CB and AJ. We have legit post defense now and a lot more younger players to keep it going. I would take this front court over AJ, Haywood and Dray any day. On the other side after two playoff runs we still have Wall, Beal, Chris, Kevin and Ves all in the 24/25 range with Booker 26. That is very different. And no longer term contract your stuck with.

[tontoz]

The very simple reason to not like this trade comes down to two words: opportunity cost.

BOYD deals, front-loaded contracts, opportunistic trades, amnesty signings, FA targets -- all of those things are significantly impeded by a move that would seem at first glance to carry little upside. So that stings.

Exactly. It is completely defeatist to say why not make this deal because we wouldn't be able to do better.

[Spence]

Do you not realize how dumb this is? How many people saw the Nene deal coming? How many people saw Kwame for Butler? Kwame was then traded for Pau Gasol lol.

Good players can and frequently do come from trades that nobody saw coming.

Thanks, but you didn't even try to answer my question. Presumably, that's because you don't have the answer. No shame in that. Not sure anyone has the answer to my question, but since my question addresses the main complaint about the trade, it is something that probably ought to be considered.

[Bickerstaff]

I noted that he called Randy Wittman "a bad coach." I wonder why he thinks that. He doesn't explain. Perhaps he believes not famous equals not good. Can't tell because he doesn't explain himself.

I'd imagine in this case he just looked at his win-loss record, which is admittedly horrible. But I do think he'd find ways to support Wittman if he had his mind made up to like the Wizards--the same way he'd acknowledge that not every move EG has made has been trading for Miller and Foye.

[VictorPage44]

^
Okafor doesnt add anything? what about rebounding? Ariza is a competant wing, we didnt have any. People keep saying that we didnt add anything we didnt already have. That couldnt be further from the truth. You cant win with nene as the best rebounder and booker as the second best, it's just not possible. Now, at least, we have a chance.

...But perception of this trade is influenced by all the genius alternative ideas everyone had worked out in their minds.

Ariza sucks. Okafor can rebound but is a big downgrade offensively from Nene/Seraphin. He has seen his best days but will be taking time away from young guys who can actually get better.

Doing nothing is always better than doing a bad deal. Bad deals are what keep bad teams bad.

I'm not going back and forth with you on Ariza, you have your opinion, I have mine, we'll see who was right next season.

You need more than one rebounder, end of story. Now we could wait on "the guys we already have who are way better than these scrubs we brought in", who dont have track records as rebounders and are all undersized or we could acutally make a proactive move and bring someone in who already has rebounding skills.

And who's better overall doesnt really matter when you're talking about the 7-8th guy in the rotation, IT'S ALL ABOUT THE FIT. You think OKC would trade Sefolosha for someone like Derozan who's "better overall"? hell no. Boston traded Perkins for Green and basically gave away any shot at a title that year. Green is just as good overall as Perkins so why didnt that work out for them?

We had two undresized Jeff Green PFs in Book and Ves, we added a true center. They're not the same just because they play the same position.

And while we're over-rating our own players, please remember that we were the second worst team in the league last year. These guys got potential, and they're gonna need to reach a decent amount of it if they're gonna stick in the league.

While we're talking about building the OKC way, let me remind you that the past 30 NBA champions or so were not built like that. They're built with a couple stars (hopefully for us Wall & #3), and a bunch of VETERAN role players. We can still go out and get those VETERAN ROLE PLAYERS in two years when Wall and #3 are ready. For now, we wont completely suck.

[Spence]

It is completely defeatist to say why not make this deal because we wouldn't be able to do better.

That seems indisputably correct to me. Which leads one to the obvious query: What deal or deals did the Wizards pass up to make this deal? Relatively precise players and contracts would be necessary.

It's pretty easy to write that this deal is bad because better deals could be made. I suppose better deals can ALWAYS be made. At least in theory. I get that. Nothing works better on an Internet message board than theory. And I think we've nailed the theory part down. More interesting at this point, I think, is what should have happened IN DETAIL. I'm sure everyone can understand that complaining that a better deal could have been made is ultimately useless because it is so vague as to be, well, useless.

Details, please. What are the deals that should have been made? Players and contracts, please.

Thanks.

[Ruzious]

Meh, the obnoxious part is more of a colateral benefit than a purpose. But it's nice to know my work is appreciated.

Ruz, your work has always been appreciated by me, but you're pretty much a rank amateur in this area. Was thinking of others when I wrote that, but now you've got a goal to shoot for. I trust your shot selection is better than Ariza's.

I think Ted might beg to differ. My obnoxiousness with the e-mail might not have reached a 10, but I probably made up for it with lack of tact and subtlety. Hey, I gotta go with my strengths - whatever they might be.

[nate33]

Doing nothing is always better than doing a bad deal. Bad deals are what keep bad teams bad.

This is sig worthy. So true. So succinct.

[MJG]

Do you not realize how dumb this is? How many people saw the Nene deal coming? How many people saw Kwame for Butler? Kwame was then traded for Pau Gasol lol.

Good players can and frequently do come from trades that nobody saw coming.

Thanks, but you didn't even try to answer my question. Presumably, that's because you don't have the answer. No shame in that. Not sure anyone has the answer to my question, but since my question addresses the main complaint about the trade, it is something that probably ought to be considered.

I think it's because the only person who can answer your question is someone who meets all the following criteria:

1. Comes from an alternate timeline in which we did not make this trade.
2. Has the ability to jump from the alternate timeline to our current timeline.
3. Has traveled back in time from a couple of years in the future of this alternate timeline.
4. Has high level NBA connections that grants them knowledge of what trade opportunities were presented to the Wizards over the course of those next couple of years.
5. Decides to make use of the powers outlined in 1-4 to respond to posts on message boards.