The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking!

TGW · Post #81 » by **TGW** » Thu Nov 30, 2023 5:59 pm

He's way more athletic than Maguire was. Dunn is a high flyer. He needs to work on his offensive game, but he's a lockdown defender in the NBA for sure.

TGW · Post #82 » by **TGW** » Thu Nov 30, 2023 6:01 pm

Sidenote...what are people's impression of Josh Minott on the Wolves (sp)?

Hibachi_0 · Post #83 » by **Hibachi_0** » Fri Dec 1, 2023 4:34 pm

Why is Rob Dillingham so low in the mock drafts? Have not seen much of him yet, but I need him in a Wizards jersey already.

Post #84 » by **nate33** » Sat Dec 2, 2023 9:02 pm

Ryan Dunn of Virginia is currently averaging 3.8 steals and 3.8 blocks per 36 minutes. Dude is a defensive terror. He's a bad 3-point shooter at 23.5%, but he is a 71% FT shooter so there's hope.

He would be awesome if he was just a little bit taller. He is listed at 6-8 with a 7-1 wingspan. If that was more like 6-9 with a 7-2 wingspan, he could probably play center.

doclinkin · Post #85 » by **doclinkin** » Sun Dec 3, 2023 12:22 am

nate33 wrote:Ryan Dunn of Virginia is currently averaging 3.8 steals and 3.8 blocks per 36 minutes. Dude is a defensive terror. He's a bad 3-point shooter at 23.5%, but he is a 71% FT shooter so there's hope.

He would be awesome if he was just a little bit taller. He is listed at 6-8 with a 7-1 wingspan. If that was more like 6-9 with a 7-2 wingspan, he could probably play center.

He'd do well to stay a year If there's NIL money to keep him in school. Adding something to his handle or %'s to the jumper would earn him certain PT at the next level. Every team is looking for the switchable defenders at his size, but players don't see the court if they can't shoot.

Though hey, Deni has been developing, maybe we can corner the market on 6'8"-ish defenders with work-in-progress offensive games.

Frichuela · Post #86 » by **Frichuela** » Sun Dec 3, 2023 3:44 pm

What do folks think of Collier? Good shooting splits and scoring so far but very high turnovers.

Could he be the PG of the future for the Wiz? Or just another version of Colin Sexton?

doclinkin · Post #87 » by **doclinkin** » Mon Dec 4, 2023 7:37 am

Frichuela wrote:What do folks think of Collier? Good shooting splits and scoring so far but very high turnovers.

Could he be the PG of the future for the Wiz? Or just another version of Colin Sexton?

I like home state rival Stephon Castle better.

Watch on YouTube

pcbothwel · Post #88 » by **pcbothwel** » Mon Dec 4, 2023 12:59 pm

doclinkin wrote:
Frichuela wrote:What do folks think of Collier? Good shooting splits and scoring so far but very high turnovers.

Could he be the PG of the future for the Wiz? Or just another version of Colin Sexton?

I think I like home state rival Stephon Castle better.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Agree with Doc. I have Castle ahead of Collier.
Sarr, Topic, Buzelis, Castle, and Holland are clearly the top 5 right now.

Collier reminds me of De’Aaron Fox. Solid player, but not enough to pick in the top 3.

pcbothwel · Post #89 » by **pcbothwel** » Mon Dec 4, 2023 3:02 pm

Hibachi_0 wrote:Why is Rob Dillingham so low in the mock drafts? Have not seen much of him yet, but I need him in a Wizards jersey already.

Ceiling. He is small with a small frame. He'll get chewed up in the playoffs unless he gets significantly stronger and/or he becomes an elite offensive player.

NatP4 · Post #90 » by **NatP4** » Tue Dec 5, 2023 5:30 pm

I’m starting to wonder if Reed Sheppard is a top 5 talent. What are these numbers? 19-6-5-4-1 on 81% TS. Can absolutely shoot the lights out. Elite defender.

pcbothwel · Post #91 » by **pcbothwel** » Wed Dec 6, 2023 5:15 pm

NatP4 wrote:I’m starting to wonder if Reed Sheppard is a top 5 talent. What are these numbers? 19-6-5-4-1 on 81% TS. Can absolutely shoot the lights out. Elite defender.

Disagree...Maybe Late Lotto. He's a high IQ/older Freshman, beating up tomato cans.
His defensive metrics look great due to his activity and anticipation but Let's see how he does in conference play. I think he is an average defender in the NBA, which is not a huge issue.
Offensively, he is shooting 60% on 3's which leads to everything else. But he is small, a below average athlete, with limited vision/creation ability. Kispert and Dick were clearly better prospects.
Again, lets see how is shakes out.

Taking him over Sarr/Buzelis/Castle/Holland/Topic would be a catastrophic failure.

closg00 · Post #92 » by **closg00** » Thu Dec 7, 2023 12:31 pm

I wonder who the Spurs are tanking for..

doclinkin · Post #93 » by **doclinkin** » Thu Dec 7, 2023 2:44 pm

closg00 wrote:I wonder who the Spurs are tanking for..

Cooper Flagg and Cam Boozer. The Spurs look long range, they are pre-tanking for next year's tankstakes.

Frichuela · Post #94 » by **Frichuela** » Thu Dec 7, 2023 6:49 pm

Close to the top of the tanking race…and 3 games away from Portland (4th worst record).

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Kanyewest · Post #95 » by **Kanyewest** » Thu Dec 7, 2023 7:07 pm

Saw someone post this on Reddit, maybe it's Ernie

I worked this out a while back. Here are some probabilities based on NBA draft data from 1989-2019:

Probability of drafting an all-star with pick [1-7] ≈ 36%.

Probability of drafting an all-star with pick [8-14] ≈ 15%.

Probability of drafting an all-star with a non-lottery pick [15-30] ≈ 8%.

So, for example, with 5 non-lottery picks your chances of selecting an all-star are:

1 - (1 - .08)5 = 1 - .66 = .34 = 34%

Kanyewest · Post #96 » by **Kanyewest** » Thu Dec 7, 2023 7:10 pm

doclinkin wrote:
closg00 wrote:I wonder who the Spurs are tanking for..

Cooper Flagg and Cam Boozer. The Spurs look long range, they are pre-tanking for next year's tankstakes.

Spurs are improving too quickly. Maybe they should consider this trade
https://basketball.realgm.com/tradechecker/saved_trade/7890784

closg00 · Post #97 » by **closg00** » Thu Dec 7, 2023 7:21 pm

Kanyewest wrote:
doclinkin wrote:
closg00 wrote:I wonder who the Spurs are tanking for..

Cooper Flagg and Cam Boozer. The Spurs look long range, they are pre-tanking for next year's tankstakes.

Spurs are improving too quickly. Maybe they should consider this trade
https://basketball.realgm.com/tradechecker/saved_trade/7890784

....and they definitely are not as-bad as their record

doclinkin · Post #98 » by **doclinkin** » Fri Dec 8, 2023 1:22 am

closg00 wrote:
Kanyewest wrote:
doclinkin wrote:
Cooper Flagg and Cam Boozer. The Spurs look long range, they are pre-tanking for next year's tankstakes.

Spurs are improving too quickly. Maybe they should consider this trade
https://basketball.realgm.com/tradechecker/saved_trade/7890784

....and they definitely are not as-bad as their record

The dumb thing is I don't think we are as bad as our record either. Or leastways with a single key addition (and one notable subtraction) we could be decent. Maybe that is the issue? Maybe we are harvesting our losses early?

Really this draft does not require a top pick for the Wizards to significantly improve. I rant about it but it seems pointless to me how underranked Centers are right now. Undervalued. Yes the league looks for switchable Bigs who can cover ground out to the 3pt line, but we just got blowtorched for 50 by Embiid. And the best defensive teams in the league are going Big nowadays.

With the long defensive and savvy forwards we have there is no reason why we should be unable to make teams suffer, even with a scheme that is heavily weighted in drop coverage. Except of course that we lack an intimidating center. This draft may lack top end talent but it is deep in experienced Bigs. Nowadays if you want to play, and you are a traditional 5, it pays to stay in school. That means the position that is traditionally slow to develop actually has time to perfect the craft.

Y'all know I'm watching Zach Edey. 7'4" of natural size, not a pituitary freak. Been big his whole life so he knows how to use it. Hockey was his first sport so he knows spacing and angles. As huge as he is, and despite blocking everything, he averages less than 2 fouls a game. Relatively mobile for his size, anticipates well. Huge hands. Posts a 20% rate on Offensive rebounding.

That kid knows how to play the game. If you lean on what he does well, you can tilt the game in your favor. If other teams want to clank and blank with an outside shooting Big, let them. We have the length to challenge outside tight and if teams are able to turn the corner to attack the lane there would be a great wall of, um, Canada waiting inside. (And Ted surely knows that having a kid of Chinese ethnicity will count for something in viewership and subscriptions to his premium streaming service).

But still, there's a few other Bigs with useful skills. Hunter Dickinson has a mean streak and an outside shot. I'm liking Kel'el Ware, 7' with a developing skillset. Jamarion Sharp has the reach and sticky grip of a kraken, his blocks+steals totals are jaw-dropping. We will pick too high in the first round that picking any of these players would be considered a reach, but if we can package some of our surplus 2nd rounders I'd be alright trading up if necessary to pick the right guy at the right price.

payitforward · Post #99 » by **payitforward** » Fri Dec 8, 2023 2:57 am

TGW wrote:Sidenote...what are people's impression of Josh Minott on the Wolves (sp)?

No one's responded....

Minott played 96 minutes as a rookie. He appeared in 15 games -- i.e. an averaged of 6.4 minutes per game. He put up good numbers in his few appearances, but so what?

This year he's only seen the floor for 23 minutes.

His one-and-done college numbers at Memphis were very good. But there too, he only played 15 minutes a game.

In short... it's hard to have much of an impression of Josh Minott.

payitforward · Post #100 » by **payitforward** » Fri Dec 8, 2023 3:02 am

doclinkin wrote:
closg00 wrote:
Kanyewest wrote:
Spurs are improving too quickly. Maybe they should consider this trade
https://basketball.realgm.com/tradechecker/saved_trade/7890784

....and they definitely are not as-bad as their record

The dumb thing is I don't think we are as bad as our record either. Or leastways with a single key addition (and one notable subtraction) we could be decent. Maybe that is the issue? Maybe we are harvesting our losses early?

Really this draft does not require a top pick for the Wizards to significantly improve. I rant about it but it seems pointless to me how underranked Centers are right now. Undervalued. Yes the league looks for switchable Bigs who can cover ground out to the 3pt line, but we just got blowtorched for 50 by Embiid. And the best defensive teams in the league are going Big nowadays.

With the long defensive and savvy forwards we have there is no reason why we should be unable to make teams suffer, even with a scheme that is heavily weighted in drop coverage. Except of course that we lack an intimidating center. This draft may lack top end talent but it is deep in experienced Bigs. Nowadays if you want to play, and you are a traditional 5, it pays to stay in school. That means the position that is traditionally slow to develop actually has time to perfect the craft.

Y'all know I'm watching Zach Edey. 7'4" of natural size, not a pituitary freak. Been big his whole life so he knows how to use it. Hockey was his first sport so he knows spacing and angles. As huge as he is, and despite blocking everything, he averages less than 2 fouls a game. Relatively mobile for his size, anticipates well. Huge hands. Posts a 20% rate on Offensive rebounding.

That kid knows how to play the game. If you lean on what he does well, you can tilt the game in your favor. If other teams want to clank and blank with an outside shooting Big, let them. We have the length to challenge outside tight and if teams are able to turn the corner to attack the lane there would be a great wall of, um, Canada waiting inside. (And Ted surely knows that having a kid of Chinese ethnicity will count for something in viewership and subscriptions to his premium streaming service).

But still, there's a few other Bigs with useful skills. Hunter Dickinson has a mean streak and an outside shot. I'm liking Kel'el Ware, 7' with a developing skillset. Jamarion Sharp has the reach and sticky grip of a kraken, his blocks+steals totals are jaw-dropping. We will pick too high in the first round, such that picking any of these players will be considered a reach, but if we can package some of our surplus 2nd rounders I'd be alright trading up if necessary to pick the right guy at the right price.

TBH, I'd be happy to cut one of our old bigs & give Neemias Queta or Usman Garuba a regular-roster contract -- which I believe it is legal to offer a 2-way player on another team. (Please correct me, someone, if I'm wrong about that)