Andray Blatche - Resurgence Thread ( Merged )

[verbal8]

I'll judge Blatche by this coming season, er, whenever the lockout ends and he puts on the Wizards uniform. Blatche is out of excuses IMO. To me this is his make or break year in terms of setting the plate for the rest of his career. Even if he plays well I'd still be willing to deal him for the right piece and if he does play well he increases his trade value. If he doesn't play well, oh well, his trade value probably can't get much lower than it is right now.

I agree this year is huge for Blatche. I there is still some hope that he might be a part of the Wizards future, but he is definitely out of excuses. I think if he flounders this year, he could end up bounce around a lot the rest of his career(like the Gooden comparison). If he does well, but doesn't seem to be the right fit he could be a valuable trade piece for needs in another area.

[jazzfan1971]

So, I acquired Andray Blatche in a keeper league. Seems like he's about as popular as herpes. Looking at his age/stats/size I really can't see why he's so disliked.

So you folks tell me, what have I got on my hands? Is he a 24 year old 6'11" 260lb monster who's allready putting up a 17 PER with a ton of upside? Or do I have a trainwreck of a guy who is going to bounce around the league never being any better than he is right now?

Or something else?

Let me have all the opinions on him.

[fishercob]

Happy reading: viewtopic.php?f=35&t=988148

IBTL

[7-Day Dray]

He's very talented. By his standards, he has a very poor season last year despite putting up pretty good numbers, but that show you just how talented he is.

Although he put up good numbers last season, but he wasn't very efficient, didn't play good defense, and was pretty turnover prone, but I blame this mostly on the injury he suffered last offseason. He broke his foot, and it was really bad because everybody said he was really working hard. But the injury caused him to come into the season out of shape and rusty.

He said recently that he's working on his body and wants to be an All-Star next season, and I think he can do it. I think he's an All-Star talent, and if he gets his body right and plays motivated, he'' put up very good numbers.

[7-Day Dray]

But IBTL

[theboomking]

He said recently that he's working on his body and wants to be an All-Star next season, and I think he can do it. I think he's an All-Star talent, and if he gets his body right and plays motivated, he'' put up very good numbers.

Where did he say that? Do you have a link or a quote? I'm not calling you out, just curious.

[7-Day Dray]

He said recently that he's working on his body and wants to be an All-Star next season, and I think he can do it. I think he's an All-Star talent, and if he gets his body right and plays motivated, he'' put up very good numbers.

Where did he say that? Do you have a link or a quote? I'm not calling you out, just curious.

On his charity trip to Jamaica.

“I’m still an up-and-coming player,” said Blatche, who bounced back from a broken foot to average 16.8 points and 8.2 rebounds last season. “I just want to be mean and tough in the paint, work on my jump shot and become more consistent. Work on my body. My goal is to be one of the best players in the league.”

http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/06/28/2 ... atche.html

[hands11]

viewtopic.php?f=35&t=988148&start=930

Or you could read it in the other Dray thread on this same page.

[nate33]

Blatche tends to post "empty stats". He can score, but not with enough efficiency to be a primary scorer. He can play decent defense at times, but not consistently enough to be considered a good defender. He's lazy at times on the court and has a less than perfect work ethic. So far in his career, he has been your typical "good player on a bad team". He's just good enough to lose with.

That doesnt make him a bad fantasy player though. He's going to get plenty of minutes because the team lacks any other big men with refined offensive skills. It's a pretty good bet that he'll average 16+ points per game and 8 or more boards while blocking a few shots and getting more steals and assists than an average PF.

[hands11]

Blatche tends to post "empty stats". He can score, but not with enough efficiency to be a primary scorer. He can play decent defense at times, but not consistently enough to be considered a good defender. He's lazy at times on the court and has a less than perfect work ethic. So far in his career, he has been your typical "good player on a bad team". He's just good enough to lose with.

That doesnt make him a bad fantasy player though. He's going to get plenty of minutes because the team lacks any other big men with refined offensive skills. It's a pretty good bet that he'll average 16+ points per game and 8 or more boards while blocking a few shots and getting more steals and assists than an average PF.

Hard to imagine him doing worse than that.

This could be an interesting team considering Nick averaged 17 pts last year and most believe Wall will be better this year.

While this team was really young and wasn't together the whole year, just look over the stats.

http://espn.go.com/nba/team/stats/_/nam ... on-wizards

PG Wall 16.4 8.3 assits
SG NY 17.4 2.7 rebs
PF Dray 16.8 8 rebs

That's not so bad considering all are young. One was a rookie. One was starting for the first time and one was injured all year. Now they are surrounded by more tough guys and you also have Craw as scorers and if Lewis is healthy he should be good for 10-12 pts off the bench. Now if McGee can get a reliable move, that could start to gel.

Now with enough touches, I see no reason Nick can't go for 20 pts a game. Dray as the second option could be 17-20. Wall doesn't really need to do much more than he did. This could actually work when you consider the other people that can score and better D. If they are healthy.

[theboomking]

Blatche tends to post "empty stats". He can score, but not with enough efficiency to be a primary scorer. He can play decent defense at times, but not consistently enough to be considered a good defender. He's lazy at times on the court and has a less than perfect work ethic. So far in his career, he has been your typical "good player on a bad team". He's just good enough to lose with.

That doesnt make him a bad fantasy player though. He's going to get plenty of minutes because the team lacks any other big men with refined offensive skills. It's a pretty good bet that he'll average 16+ points per game and 8 or more boards while blocking a few shots and getting more steals and assists than an average PF.

Hard to imagine him doing worse than that.

This could be an interesting team considering Nick averaged 17 pts last year and most believe Wall will be better this year.

While this team was really young and wasn't together the whole year, just look over the stats.

http://espn.go.com/nba/team/stats/_/nam ... on-wizards

PG Wall 16.4 8.3 assits
SG NY 17.4 2.7 rebs
PF Dray 16.8 8 rebs

That's not so bad considering all are young. One was a rookie. One was starting for the first time and one was injured all year. Now they are surrounded by more tough guys and you also have Craw as scorers and if Lewis is healthy he should be good for 10-12 pts off the bench. Now if McGee can get a reliable move, that could start to gel.

Now with enough touches, I see no reason Nick can't go for 20 pts a game. Dray as the second option could be 17-20. Wall doesn't really need to do much more than he did. This could actually work when you consider the other people that can score and better D. If they are healthy.

I be stunned if Wall doesn't score more. Even if he just maintains his scoring average and shooting percentages from after the All Star break, he will score with more volume and more efficiency. With all of the work he's putting into his jumper, passing lanes and driving lanes are also going to open up. I expect 18-19ppg on 43-44%. I actually think Wall's assist number could remain stable or decline. Young and Rashard are the only shooters we have. Who is Wall going to pass to, especially if we are able to amnesty Rashard?

Regarding Blatche, if we have a season, I expect Blatche to look better. Hopefully he has a fantastic season and we are able to trade him.

[Nivek]

[quote="hands11"PG Wall 16.4 8.3 ast
SG NY 17.4 2.7 rebs
PF Dray 16.8 8 rebs[/quote]

Another relevant (though less flattering) stat -- offensive efficiency.

Wall -- 100 points produced per 100 possessions
Young -- 107
Blatche -- 100

League Average -- 107.3

[theboomking]

[quote="hands11"PG Wall 16.4 8.3 ast
SG NY 17.4 2.7 rebs
PF Dray 16.8 8 rebs

Another relevant (though less flattering) stat -- offensive efficiency.

Wall -- 100 points produced per 100 possessions
Young -- 107
Blatche -- 100

League Average -- 107.3[/quote]

Where does McGee fall? What website do you use to follow this stat?

I expect Wall's offensive efficiency to look much better next year. Is there any way to know how Wall's offensive efficiency looked after the All Star break last year?

[Nivek]

McGee's ortg last season was 111, albeit with a low usage rate.

You can find this stat at Basketball Reference. Great site.

[hands11]

[quote="hands11"PG Wall 16.4 8.3 ast
SG NY 17.4 2.7 rebs
PF Dray 16.8 8 rebs

Another relevant (though less flattering) stat -- offensive efficiency.

Wall -- 100 points produced per 100 possessions
Young -- 107
Blatche -- 100

League Average -- 107.3[/quote]

Yeah. I expect all three to be more efficient on a more in tune team.

[Nivek]

By what mechanism will the team become "in tune" when the biggest possession users are so inefficient?

[TGW]

I expect Wall to improve his efficiency. Young and Blatche will stay the same. I don't see Blatche improving his efficiency...he's still going to take too many jumpshots and make too many dumb dribble moves behind his back that lead to turnovers.

[Nivek]

I agree completely, TGW. Wall's efficiency should improve significantly. Young and Blatche could improve, but probably are what they are at this point. There are exceptions, but most NBA players do whatever improving their going to do by their fourth season. Having looked at ~1100 players (so far) in my draft pick analysis project, it's amazing how frequently a player's PER through 4 seasons is within a point or two of his career PER -- whether the guy plays 2 more years or 6 or 10. There are exceptions, but not many.

When I'm finished with step one of the draft pick project, I'll probably go back and look at career arcs. I've been systematically looking at 4-year production (because that's the length of rookie contracts), and eyeballing career numbers along the way. My impression is that significant improvement after the 4th season is pretty rare. I want more than an impression, though.

There are reasons to hope that Blatche and Young will improve. They'd be bucking the historical trend if they do, however.

[doclinkin]

I agree completely, TGW. Wall's efficiency should improve significantly. Young and Blatche could improve, but probably are what they are at this point. There are exceptions, but most NBA players do whatever improving their going to do by their fourth season. Having looked at ~1100 players (so far) in my draft pick analysis project, it's amazing how frequently a player's PER through 4 seasons is within a point or two of his career PER -- whether the guy plays 2 more years or 6 or 10. There are exceptions, but not many.

When I'm finished with step one of the draft pick project, I'll probably go back and look at career arcs. I've been systematically looking at 4-year production (because that's the length of rookie contracts), and eyeballing career numbers along the way. My impression is that significant improvement after the 4th season is pretty rare. I want more than an impression, though.

There are reasons to hope that Blatche and Young will improve. They'd be bucking the historical trend if they do, however.

I'm most curious about the exceptions. How this relates to age, or schooling. Whether coaching changes make significant differences. And you know, whether their zodiac sign makes any difference

[Nivek]

My guess is zodiac time is more significant.