Are the Wizards a Playoff Team This Year?

[vincecarter4pres]

Would like to hear your guys' take on your team this year.

Do you think you're a playoff team this year and if so around how many wins/what seed?

If not, around what lotto pick do you expect/how many wins/losses?

Sorry if this is a duplicate type thread, but I went back a couple pages and didn't see anything specifically like this.

[Hoopalotta]

It's worth discussion, yeah.

Personally, I picked us for 33 wins earlier in the summer, and while part of me thinks I should tack on a few based on generally good vibes thus far, I'll refrain and just stick with that.

Middle 30 wins, that's my opinion.

There's plenty to be excited about, but I don't know that that's going to translate to actually winning basketball games in the NBA with any great consistency.

The main problems are a generally soft and raw interior with our top 3 bigs being finesse players, poor team rebounding, serious matchup issues against big wings and quite possibly a lack of roleplayers who fit with the schemes further down in the rotation. Small forward is like the riddle of the sphinx at this moment. As you're a Nets fan, I will say that Yi really looks like our 6th best player now (at least until Josh Howard is back) and you can probably fill in the blanks better than us there. It's really early, but I also can't help but feel that OP-EFG% is going to get a bit ugly as things go on.

Team shooting and speed are strengths and it seems like we might force a good number of turnovers. And I'd expect pretty good scrappy-ness, energy levels and attitude throughout the year without spiraling in bad stretches.

I'd think we'll be in playoff "contention", but as to making it, it depends a great deal on what the criteria is come March. If you can get in with 37 wins, maybe, but if it's 42, I'm thinking that's a mighty tall order for year one of the 'post crater' development process.

[willbcocks]

I don't think so for three reasons.

1) We're young and have a lot of question marks. There will be growing pains. If you look at our team and project reasonable growth for our players, we're still borderline.

2) We are very vulnerable to injury. An injury to Wall, Gil, or Blatche and the playoffs are way out of reach.

3) We won't be sacrificing the future for the present, and might make a trade that sacrifices the present for the future. Obviously I am talking about Gil here, but if he plays well (the good scenario in #1), there's a decent change we trade him, dropping us out of the playoffs.

[verbal8]

I don't think so for three reasons.

1) We're young and have a lot of question marks. There will be growing pains. If you look at our team and project reasonable growth for our players, we're still borderline.

2) We are very vulnerable to injury. An injury to Wall, Gil, or Blatche and the playoffs are way out of reach.

I think one of them getting hurt could mean 25 wins or fewer.

3) We won't be sacrificing the future for the present, and might make a trade that sacrifices the present for the future. Obviously I am talking about Gil here, but if he plays well (the good scenario in #1), there's a decent change we trade him, dropping us out of the playoffs.

I think other than Blatche, Wall, McGee and the rookies everyone on the roster is potential trade bait. Hopefully a couple of them can be packaged for a prospect and/or pick.

Even with an intact roster rebounding is a serious concern with this team. I think this team is a in his prime Mike Miller and Haywood short of the play-offs.

[dobrojim]

after a couple preseason wins, it'd be easy to be more
optimistic. And I am.

one reason is this (which was broadcast during the first game) -
average improvement in win totals (in recent years) after
landing #1#1 - 13.7 John Wall is not an average #1#1.

that takes us to 40 right there

AB as starter the whole year >> AJ
Gil not missing 50 games due to suspension

No Haywood hurts. How well McGee plays will be key

But if the curse lives on and we suffer injuries to the guys
mentioned in the prev post, all bets are off.

I think CHI might not be as good as advertised after lOsing (note
the single o) Boozer for a couple months. The Bucks had a strong
finish last year without Bogut. Now they've turned over much
of the roster. We'll see how that works out. ATL has improved
the last several years. Have they peaked and might they slide?

I don't know the answer to these questions but it might be fun
for Wiz fans to watch and find out. Or not.

[Dat2U]

Were a center away from being a legit playoff team IMO. Javale ideally would be a supersub on a good team.

Small forward is a huge weakness but a healthy Josh Howard might make the position passable. But to me our biggest hole to fill is a low post defender/rebounder.

Even with our weaknesses, if were blessed with relatively good health I think 40 wins is a possibility. But any significant injury and were probably around 30 or less. Were battling with the Bobcats, Knicks, Nets, Pacers & Sixers for the final two playoff spots. That's what gives me hope that the playoffs are a possibility. Not because were complete team, but because our competition is so suspect.

[MJG]

My opinion is unchanged by our first two preseason games: we'll win in the mid-30s and be a fringe playoff contender. Close enough that people will mention us when talking about who'll get the 8th seed, far enough away that nobody really believes that we'll wind up there.

[hands11]

viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1050416&start=315

well since I just posted all this in the early am today and just pasting it here also


What is interesting is that while we are a young young team, we don't lack some experience and some vets.

We do have Gil, Howard and Kirk. Two were all stars at one point. Kirk was a team caption for 4 years and is a known solid pro level basketball player.

Then we have that Dray, Yi layer. They have experience, talent and youth. Hopefully Dray picks up where he left off and Yi seems to be showing well so far. Dray is coming into his 6th year. That isn't a rookie at all. Yi is coming into his 4th year.

Then, while a rookie, we have Wall who look to be someone who will contribute right away. That is six players right there that can be good to very good or even great. 3 vets with 2 of then All Stars, 2 emerging vetish players and a rookie star. Not a bad core of six when mostly people say a team is 7-8 players as the core. AT is also coming into his 4th year. Plus, McGee is going to give you something. Plus we have above average coaching in Flip and Sam.

I would guess that is your core with X factors/deeper bench of Nick, Seraphin, Booker, Armstrong Only question is does Nick make it though camp or is it time to move on and add Martin or Hudson.

Independent of looking at other teams, if all I know was what we had, I would call that a solid playoff team. And to win in the playoffs, you need those vets. Gil, Howard, Kirk, and Dray provides that. Yi can probably be included there with his international experience. Wall will be learning but he seem to learn quickly.

Getting back to the playoffs and winning a game or four would be a successful season to build on.

[fishercob]

Can't rebound = no playoffs.

[JWizmentality]

Can't get a rebound if the ball goes splash = playoffs.

[Nivek]

No. This team will most likely win 25-30 games. They're too inexperienced up front and haven't demonstrated toughness. Wall looks promising, but there are questions about his shooting percentage and turnovers. SF is a major weakness at least until Howard gets back.

There are plausible scenarios for the team to make the playoffs: Blatche builds on what he did after he became The Man; McGee "gets it" in his third year, becomes a solid rebounder, interior defender and finisher around the basket; Wall is the 2nd coming of Chris Paul; Arenas returns to 90% of what he used to be; Yi takes charge of the SF position and creates matchup problems; Hinrich provides leadership, steadiness and reliable production off the bench; and very few injuries.

I don't think it's unrealistic to expect some of these "scenarios" to occur. It's reasonable to think they can. It's not reasonable to think ALL will happen. Plus, players usually don't change all that much year-to-year. What a guy does this year is likely going to be something close to what he did last year plus or minus 20%.

My initial, no major analysis guess is 25-30 wins.

[nate33]

I'm with dobrojim and Dat2U on the optimistic side. I think we'll show significant improvement over last year due to the addition of a #1 overall pick plus this being the second year under Flip's system. This is the same team that played at a 22-win pace after the Jamison trade with the following changes:

Wall replaces Livingston (upgrade)
Arenas replaces Foye (big upgrade)
Hinrich replaces Cartier Martin (huge upgrade)
Josh Howard replaces MIller (downgrade, but not that big of one)
Yi replaces Singleton (I originally thought this would be a downgrade but now I'm not so sure)

Plus Blatche, McGee, Young and Thornton are all in better shape and have better understanding of the system.

With all that in mind, I don't see why a 12-20 game improvement isn't possible. I'm thinking something in the neighborhood of 38 wins, which puts us on the fringe of the playoffs.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I think the Wizards will win about 43 games and they will make the playoffs.

Hinrich and Arenas have several years of playoff appearance. Josh Howard has an NBA Finals appearance, and is motivated in a contract year. All three of those guys has over 7 years NBA experience. John Wall is phenomenal at both ends of the court. He has shown in preseason the ability to change a game defensively, as well as the ability to control his turnovers. He has tremendous leadership ability. The backcourt is much better than I can recall. Add to that Young and Thornton have requisite athleticism and size at SG and SF to count as quality depth. I think on the deep bench the team will have Lester the pitbull. The backcourt will compete every night.

Andray Blatche is a go to big. He's also a great passer and an unselfish player. This will be his sixth NBA season, even though it will only be his first season as a starter. He's got experience and is a sure thing, better than average PF. For all who see things wrong with the frontcourt, I see two athletic 7 footers in McGee and Yi. Both can score, rebound, and block shots. McGee has 19/13 and 6 blocks in 40 minutes so far and folks are saying he can't play? Yi followed up 11/10 and three blocks with 14/7 and 3 assists. Having a fast 7 footer with three point range, shot blocking ability, and a scorer's mentality off the bench is a good thing. Yi has also played surprisingly good defense. He averaged 20 and 10 in FIBA play and he's in a contract year. Jianlian is for real. Collectively, the team has also Booker, Seraphin, and Armstrong to just fill minutes and provide defense, rebounding, and intensity. The first two bring muscle with athleticism that the team has lacked for years.

I think this team's better than the teams the Wizards have had recently. Way more athletic and way more unselfish. This team will defend. Because the guards have experience and the frontcourt has length, athleticism, and a go to scorer the Wizards will very likely make the playoffs.

The Wizards have too many guys on the way up for me to think they'll be a 30-win team.

[leswizards]

Someone make a new batch of Koolaid, I just drank it all. This team is going to win 60 and go to the finals.

[pancakes3]

hahaha, come on guys...

we got all the way to the 2nd round in 2005 with Gil, Hughes, and Jamison. we can at least make the playoffs with Gil, Wall, and Blatche. Wall doesn't botch 1-on-2 fast breaks, and Blatche actually takes it inside.

haywood averaged 9/7/1.7 that year in 27 mpg with Kwame and Etan as his backups. McGee/Armstrong/Seraphin are capable of duplicating that.

Bullets Fever! catch it!

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'm with dobrojim and Dat2U on the optimistic side. I think we'll show significant improvement over last year due to the addition of a #1 overall pick plus this being the second year under Flip's system. This is the same team that played at a 22-win pace after the Jamison trade with the following changes:

Wall replaces Livingston (upgrade)
Arenas replaces Foye (big upgrade)
Hinrich replaces Cartier Martin (huge upgrade)
Josh Howard replaces MIller (downgrade, but not that big of one)
Yi replaces Singleton (I originally thought this would be a downgrade but now I'm not so sure)

Plus Blatche, McGee, Young and Thornton are all in better shape and have better understanding of the system.

With all that in mind, I don't see why a 12-20 game improvement isn't possible. I'm thinking something in the neighborhood of 38 wins, which puts us on the fringe of the playoffs.

Even though Livingston played great ball last year for the Wiz, John Wall is a huge upgrade. Intensity at both ends is much higher. Wall is everything you guys said he would be when I didn't want the Wizards to draft him. That kid is great.

Miller really tailed off post-trade. I think Howard will be a huge upgrade intensity wise and will play both ends of the court. Howard, Hinrich, and Wall all get after it.

Flip Saunders is a guy I love to hate but he averaged 48-49 wins prior to last season. He's got so many pieces with this team, and he's a guard's coach with great guards. He's also got his Garnett-types in Blatche and Yi. Meanwhile, his 7-1 player who might be the best shotblocker in the league is growing, gaining muscle, and developing a reliable hook shot.

I said 43 wins but I seriously believe this team can win 50.

[TheBigThree]

Assuming the Wizards can stay healthy, then they'll definitely be in the playoffs.

Therefore the answer to your question is no.

[fishercob]

Can't get a rebound if the ball goes splash = playoffs.

Ha, you're making my point. Our defense is going to struggle, because even when we do force missed shots, we're not going to corral enough of them. We can't run without the ball and we can't run off makes. Our bigs are going to commit a ton of fouls and we're going to have to play some form of small ball alot -- either under-lengthed or under-strengthed (look ma, I made up words!), a lot of the time. Less talented teams are going to push us around, slow us down, and wear us out.

30-35 wins. 9-11 seed.

[no D in Hibachi]

Everything depends on McGee. If he plays well and is at least average defensively I think the Wiz will make the playoffs easily. If McGee plays during the reg season like he played last night the Wiz will have a tough season and probably win only 25-30 games.

[closg00]

Can't get a rebound if the ball goes splash = playoffs.

Ha, you're making my point. Our defense is going to struggle, because even when we do force missed shots, we're not going to corral enough of them. We can't run without the ball and we can't run off makes. Our bigs are going to commit a ton of fouls and we're going to have to play some form of small ball alot -- either under-lengthed or under-strengthed (look ma, I made up words!), a lot of the time. Less talented teams are going to push us around, slow us down, and wear us out.

30-35 wins. 9-11 seed.

This is my position as-well. We may be able to mitigate our weakness some by going with a taller line-up using Yi at SF, but It won't take long for other teams to start man-handling us in the paint and taking-away lanes (as much as they can) for Wall. 30-35 wins.