Our Projected Depth Chart

[nate33]

I like the Barbosa angle, Rockymac. I don't know if we've got the roster spots to do it though. It's always wise to keep that 15th slot open in case there's an epidemic of injuries at one position.

Maybe if we cut Mack...

[Nivek]

The Wiz have room for a guy like Barbosa. Just cut one of the following: Mack, Price or Crawford.

[rockymac52]

Easily cut one of those three and don't think twice. Mack is non-guaranteed, isn't he? Or trade one of them for whatever you can get in return. Could Crawford get us a mid to late 2nd round pick from somebody? I'd like to think it's doable. We might not even keep the pick, but I'd rather have it then not have anything at all, you know?

[nate33]

Easily cut one of those three and don't think twice. Mack is non-guaranteed, isn't he? Or trade one of them for whatever you can get in return. Could Crawford get us a mid to late 2nd round pick from somebody? I'd like to think it's doable. We might not even keep the pick, but I'd rather have it then not have anything at all, you know?

I'm on board with this. My first choice would be to cut Mack. My faith in Crawford is minimal, but there is at least some chance that he surprises to the upside. I'd prefer to wait a year and find out rather than trade him for a late 2nd round pick (if we can even get that).

[rockymac52]

Fair enough, can't argue with that. If we got Barbosa, Crawford would be relegated to the bench anyways, and he'd have to fight for every single minute. It would light a fire under his ass for sure. He needs some competition. Right now he can't even realistically be benched if he slacks off.

So the question becomes, are we talking to Barbosa already? And if we are, how come we haven't heard anything about it (to my knowledge)? Would Barbosa be interested in coming here?

[Ed Wood]

Cutting Price in order to pick up a better (low bar there) player is the sort of thing that a front office with a track record of competence could do pretty painlessly. There'd be a brief period of "well what did you even sign him for?" but that would subside pretty quickly as everyone tentatively accepted that management knew what it was doing. One of the less obvious downsides operating with a less respected front office (the more obvious would, naturally, be having a bad front office) is that the front office has to be very conscious of appearing confident and in control and being consequently less willing to acknowledge mistakes.

[hands11]

Seraphin NEEDS to start this year guys. IDC if Okafor or Nene are better. I say this because we arent going to be able to trade for a star player with Ariza/Okafor and some glue guys like Booker and Vesley who are on there rookie deal. I doubt we can ship nene out in a deal for another star, I doubt even Kanh is that stupid to take on Nene deal in a full out rebuild mode. Seraphin needs time to develop and let the league know he is a potential top 7-10 center. A potential top 7-10 center, young glue guys, a few draft picks and 20 million in expiring deals might be enough to get a guy like Love/Aldridge/Cousins whoever is going to be the next disgruntled superstar. Even if we can get a disgruntled star through a trade i highly doubt we will have the money to keep Seraphin Wall and Beal around while taking on a star player. There is a chance Kahn would be dumb enough to take on Nene deal. Wall/Beal/whoever/Love/Seraphin would be a dream in which everyone styles match perfectly, but chances are that will never happen

If Seraphin turns out to be a top 7-10 center, I probably wouldn't trade him. I'd look to trade some combination of Nene, Okafor, Booker and future picks for the next disgruntled star.

Either way, I'm not really in any hurry to forcefeed Seraphin minutes. Seraphin should play as many minutes as he earns. If he is indeed a top 7-10 center, then he certainly would be one of the two best bigs on the roster and will start alongside Nene. If he's not yet better than Okafor or Booker, then he should come off the bench. There's no need to overthink this.

I agree. I'm just not worried about how this will work out because I see the pieces to work it out. But we don't know what we really have yet. We are just going to have to wait until we get some kind of news. We know Wall is working with the right people and their is word his shot looks better. We likely won't know more until camp. They are moving in the right direction. They have foundational pieces. They will be better. How much better we just don't know. It could be 10th seed better or it could be playoffs.

[hands11]

This discussion is helping me remember why Wittman played Nene off the bench last year. Wall had the ability to facilitate the offense and allow otherwise poor shot creators like Booker, Vesely and Martin a chance to get some shots up with reasonable efficiency. But when Wall sat, we were desperately in need of a player who could be a primary option without the benefit of a dynamic point guard. Nene was perfect.

Agreed. The first line was just full of piss and vinegar. Then they rolled in the mostly vet players to play together.

With so many players who will likely play similar minutes, I hope Whit goes with a similar strategy. Come out with a mostly defensive line up and set the tone. Frustrate them. Take the other team out of their rhythm. It doesn't have to be a great scoring line up. Just D and run. Then let your better more balanced players take advantage of their second line up. Players that are on the same page.

The Wiz strength is their balance of youth and vets and depth. They may not have a lot of established great stars but they have other advantages. It will be up to both young player improving like Wall and Whit to line them up in the best strategy.

They could actually do something very similar this year to what they did last year. I can't wait to see what he does. Its a team game and its 48 minutes. I think they can make some noise with this roster lined up the right way. If the younger line up is the better D line up, start them, even if the scoring is less. Because using that line up against a weaker scoring second until would be less effect in plus/minus.

Now that may not get them as far on the playoffs where you need more stars, but it will help win more games and give those younger players a better environment to develop during the season. Then if they can reach the playoffs, they may actually have a star or two more to bring to the fight. And those players would have a solid team concept coming to the fight with them.

Whit has a lot of strategic options he can try.

Randy is going to be very important. Hopefully he will be able to effectively balance short and longer term goals so the team is peaking at the end of the year.

[hands11]

Fair enough, can't argue with that. If we got Barbosa, Crawford would be relegated to the bench anyways, and he'd have to fight for every single minute. It would light a fire under his ass for sure. He needs some competition. Right now he can't even realistically be benched if he slacks off.

So the question becomes, are we talking to Barbosa already? And if we are, how come we haven't heard anything about it (to my knowledge)? Would Barbosa be interested in coming here?

I wouldn't be surprised at all that they cut one of Mack or Price. I think that is their plan. I think they are just giving Mack a little more time to prove he has a place on the team this year.

That said, they do have players they could bench Crawford like if he is off and not contributing in other ways. They have Martin, Webster and Trevor A.

[mike3]

Do you guys know what your starting 5 coming into this season is going to be (or what you think it'll be)?
Obviously some positions are a given like Wall, Nene etc. but do you think Beal will get the start from the very beginning? and also who starts at PF? Okafor?

PG: John Wall
SG: Bradley Beal??
SF: Trevor Ariza
PF: Okafor/Vesley/Seraphin??
C: Nene

The reason I ask is because I'm starting a Wizards season on NBA 2k13 as soon as it comes out and I like to play as realistic as possible so any help would be appreciated!

[mike3]

Or would Nene start at PF and Okafor at C?

[nate33]

We really don't know what the starting lineup will be. I'm not sure Wittman knows either. The only sure bet is that Wall will start. Everything else is going to depend on how things shake out in training camp.

PG: Wall - no brainer

SG: Crawford or Beal. They'll fight it out in the preseason. I think all of us agree that, on paper, Beal is a better fit alongside Wall and Crawford is better as a 2nd unit spark plug. But it's tough to expect a rookie to start on Day 1. It won't bother me if Wittman makes Beal earn it rather than just giving him the starting role just because he's a high pick.

SF: Ariza is the likely starter, at least at first. If he continues to shoot abysmally, then Wittman might consider adding a sharpshooter like Martell Webster or Cartier Martin into the starting lineup. Martell Webster has a golden opportunity here. His skill set is perfect for what this team needs. He just needs to live up to the expectations that got him drafted 6th overall in 2005.

PF/C: We have 5 players to man these two positions: Nene, Okafor, Seraphin, Vesely and Booker. I don't think anybody has a clue who will start right now. Nene is clearly the best player of the group, but he is recovering from planters fasciitis and might not be 100% at the start of the season. Also, Wittman played Nene with the 2nd unit last year to bolster their scoring ability (and because Seraphin played well as a starter). Of the other 4, an argument can be made to start any one of them. Okafor is the most experienced. Seraphin and Vesely are the future. Booker has the best all-around skills to be a PF and he has the best perimeter shot.

If it was another coach, I'd just assume that the veterans would start: Crawford, Ariza, Nene and Okafor; but Wittman has a history of running a meritocracy. He starts whomever he thinks is the best player and doesn't care about contract or experience. It's all going to depend on training camp.

[nate33]

Wow, it just occurred to me that we have 6 high lotto picks on the roster (drafted #7 or higher):

Wall - #1 (2010)
Okafor - #2 (2004)
Beal - #3 (2012)
Vesely - #6 (2011)
Webster - #6 (2005)
Nene - #7 (2002)

[Nivek]

Randy Wittman told reporters the team looks good on paper. I took a quick look at that statement at my blog and respectfully disagree. It's potentially a decent team (meaning something on the order of 45 wins), IF Wall comes back significantly improved and/or Beal has an outstanding rookie season.

For the starting lineup, I figure it's going to be:

PG - Wall
SG - Beal
SF - Ariza
PF - Nene
C - Okafor

Subs
PG - Price
SG - Crawford
SF - Singleton
PF - Vesely
C - Seraphin

Booker, Martin, Webster will have to make do on whatever minutes they can scrap together from injuries, foul trouble, poor play. I think the team would be better off if Martin or Webster could take that backup SG job from Crawford, but I don't see it happening -- not because Crawford is better, but because Crawford is perceived as a "scorer."

[nate33]

Nivek, do you really think Singleton will rank above Martin and Webster in the depth chart? I think he'll have to show substantial improvement.

Basically, Singleton's only redeeming quality is that he has the body type to guard most SF's. That was enough to earn him the starting job last year because nobody else on the roster was built like that. This year, Ariza can do everything Singleton can do, only better. And on the 2nd unit, Wittman is likely to be looking for a specialist (either a shooter like Martin/Webster or a tough guy like Booker) to play a specific role when Ariza sits. I think Singleton gets squeezed out of the rotation altogether.

[hands11]

Wow, it just occurred to me that we have 6 high lotto picks on the roster (drafted #7 or higher):

Wall - #1 (2010)
Okafor - #2 (2004)
Beal - #3 (2012)
Vesely - #6 (2011)
Webster - #6 (2005)
Nene - #7 (2002)

I've read that posted before. But yeah, we do. Now we know that doesn't mean anything in and of itself. You can make a crap roster of past top 10 picks but I don't think that is what we have here. There is legit talent there and 3 of those players are still really young. And that's not even mentioning other first round picks like Kevin S, Booker, C Singleton, Crawford

Its a solid roster. More blue collar then Hollywood star power but that's fine with me for the beginning of stage 2. This year I see them establishing more consistency and establishing themselves as a legit solid professional NBA team that practices, approaches and plays the game the right way. Its won't be a well oiled machine but there will be more fundamentals and structure so they will be able to address weak areas and improve them. Basically they won't be spinning their wheels. They will establish as base and improve from there.

[Nivek]

Nivek, do you really think Singleton will rank above Martin and Webster in the depth chart? I think he'll have to show substantial improvement.

Basically, Singleton's only redeeming quality is that he has the body type to guard most SF's. That was enough to earn him the starting job last year because nobody else on the roster was built like that. This year, Ariza can do everything Singleton can do, only better. And on the 2nd unit, Wittman is likely to be looking for a specialist (either a shooter like Martin/Webster or a tough guy like Booker) to play a specific role when Ariza sits. I think Singleton gets squeezed out of the rotation altogether.

I do, but not because Singleton will perform better. Playing time decisions in the NBA are heavily influenced by draft position. The Wizards invested a pick in Singleton so they're going to want him to get playing time. Martin is a street free agent. So is Webster. One thing Webster has going for him is that he got picked higher than Singleton.

I think it's possible for Singleton to play his way out of the rotation.

And, what you say is completely plausible and possible. It could happen exactly like what you're saying. Honestly, I don't think it's going to matter all that much because none of 'em are much good.

[Nivek]

Seems like a good place to post this. Arturo at the Wages of Wins blog effectively rips off a study I did a few years ago. He regressed minutes per game on Wins Produced (summary productivity measure) team by team since 1978 with the notion of checking to see which teams show a pattern of playing their most productive players.

Here's a summary table comparing teams since 1978:



Note the team in 30th place. Bright side, I guess, is that the Wizards have been middle of the pack for the past 5 years, although they were in last place last season for their relationship between playing time and productivity (as measured by Wins Produced). I'm not a huge fan of Wins Produced, but as I mentioned above, I've run the numbers using other measures (including stat category by stat category) and Arturo's findings and my findings are consistent.

[nate33]

And, what you say is completely plausible and possible. It could happen exactly like what you're saying. Honestly, I don't think it's going to matter all that much because none of 'em are much good.

[Nivek]

Oh, and here's another one from Wages of Wins that REALLY rips off the study I did a few years ago.

They ask the question: What gets you played in the NBA? The answer: scoring.