Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Part II

[TGW]

I'd trade him now, while the getting is good.

[hands11]

^
I'm just going with the odds (and maybe a little Wizards fatalism). I don't want him to get injured, and I'm glad to see him playing so well, certainly exceeding my expectations.

Mine also.

When the trade initially happened, I didn't like it because I had other ideas for how they could grow it. Then a day later when it sunk in, I thought he would be good for the team. They needed what he could offered. Then I was right there cracking on him when he looked to total crap when the season was getting started.

Now this much, I didn't expect. But looking at his career numbers, it makes sense. Things had to go well with his recovery for him to do it and a little luck that he still had it in him. Looks like those things happened.

[hands11]

Trevor A and Okafor are looking like they are hitting their stride.

Man has having them really helped.

Both are great defensively and now they are both also starting to score.

They are solid vet and this team needed a couple of them to go with Nene. Webster is helping a ton as well.

As I have said for a while now. People here should not be so quick to thinking about blowing this team up. It may well end up being the smart thing to do is to extend both of these players for cheaper.

[TGW]

I agree hands11...they have really helped to get that much deserved 14-35 record. You were right...these 2 guys are keys in building a championship contender. All the Wizards have to do now is add a franchise big man, a scoring wing, and a competent bench, and they have the rings in the bag.

Thank the basketball gods we ended up with these two super-vets, and not that ballhog Harden.

[hands11]

I agree hands11...they have really helped to get that much deserved 14-35 record. You were right...these 2 guys are keys in building a championship contender. All the Wizards have to do now is add a franchise big man, a scoring wing, and a competent bench, and they have the rings in the bag.

Thank the basketball gods we ended up with these two super-vets, and not that ballhog Harden.

I am getting really tired of reading about this Harden deal like it was something that was in the bag.

What makes people think is was some kind of sure thing that we could have gotten Harden ?

[Ruzious]

I agree hands11...they have really helped to get that much deserved 14-35 record. You were right...these 2 guys are keys in building a championship contender. All the Wizards have to do now is add a franchise big man, a scoring wing, and a competent bench, and they have the rings in the bag.

Thank the basketball gods we ended up with these two super-vets, and not that ballhog Harden.

I am getting really tired of reading about this Harden deal like it was something that was in the bag.

What makes people think is was some kind of sure thing that we could have gotten Harden ?

After the article came out in the Washington Post that Washington turned down the trade, Ted pretty much confirmed it in his blog.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Washington has won 8 of its last 9 home games.

--The Wizards don't have James Harden, but Washington does have one of the best defensive teams in the league.

--Opponents scores the last three wins: Nets 74, Knick 96, Clippers 90. The two losses before that: Spurs scored 96 and the Grizzlies 85. Nobody is sniffing 100 points on the Wizards' elite defensive squad.

Some of the credit goes to Trevor Ariza on the wing and to Emeka Okafor inside. They are a big part of why The Wizards are so good defensively.

It would be lovely to have Harden, but we do have 19-year old Beal, who will improve. Also, Ariza and Okafor come off the books next year but their trade values are building now. The deal for Okafor and Ariza didn't pay off early in wins but it clearly would have if Wall and Nene were healthy.

[fishercob]

CCJ, I have always thought that if you're going to crush someone for their mistakes, it's only fair to give them their due when they deserve credit. I am NOT saying that this trade was by any means the "right" move or the path I would have taken, but if this trend continues its only fair to say that this trade has paid off. If they're not there yet, the wizard becoming an elite defensive team and OkaRiza are playing key roles in that. May be time to bump the "Defense and the culture change" thread.

[payitforward]

An average NBA team -- one that goes 41-41 -- half the minutes played will be above average and half will be below average.

Of course, the bell-shaped curve can have any shape, i.e. the whole squad could just play the same -- average -- but the above is more or less true all the same.

Like pretty much any NBA team, even the worst ones, we have some guys who play above average NBA ball.

It's also the case that an average NBA team will have some stretches of wins and some stretches of losses -- they won't just win lose win lose etc. game by game all season. Their fans will look at those winning streaks and say -- "see, that's who we really are. That's our guys playing the way they can" etc. I.e. they will look at the best end of their team's bell-shaped performance curve and assess the team based on it. Then they'll assess the coaches based on the rest of the curve, the bad part.

But, the overall record is the real story. That's the team. So, yes, we have some guys playing above average ball, but not enough, not so many, not a big deal, and no no no it's not to build on!

Sorry....

[Nivek]

Most of us agreed that Okafor and Ariza would help the Wizards this season. The thing I questioned (and still do) is what comes next. The Wizards are heavily reliant on Okafor's production and he's 30 years old and on a contract that expires after next season. So, Wizards will need to either replace his production with someone else or sign a 32-year old to a new deal and hope he bucks the odds and remains productive into his mid-30s.

Now, that might not be a bad bet. There are players comparable to Okafor who maintained high levels of play into their late 30s. Maybe Okafor can do it too. There are also comparable guys who had the usual post-30 decline.

And, it would put the Wizards in the position of having two 30+ bigs they'd have to hope both somehow defy normal aging patterns.

I'm less concerned about replacing or re-signing Ariza. SFs are easier to find than bigs. And, he's younger. A 2-3 year extension at a reasonable price would end at about the time of the normal post-30 dropoff.

[DCZards]

There have been several big men (usually 6-9 and above) who have continued to play decently well into their 30s. These are guys who stick around because of their solid rebounding, shot blocking and D. Okafor may very well be one of them, especially given his reputation for being a workout warrior.

[DCZards]

Many of us who supported the Okafor/Ariza trade did so because we believed it would change the culture and, most importantly, give youngins like Wall an opportunity to experience the joy of winning...maybe even make the playoffs. I don't think any of us thought Emeka and/or Trevor were the final piece(s) to the championship puzzle.

[closg00]

Most of us agreed that Okafor and Ariza would help the Wizards this season. The thing I questioned (and still do) is what comes next. The Wizards are heavily reliant on Okafor's production and he's 30 years old and on a contract that expires after next season. So, Wizards will need to either replace his production with someone else or sign a 32-year old to a new deal and hope he bucks the odds and remains productive into his mid-30s.

Now, that might not be a bad bet. There are players comparable to Okafor who maintained high levels of play into their late 30s. Maybe Okafor can do it too. There are also comparable guys who had the usual post-30 decline.

And, it would put the Wizards in the position of having two 30+ bigs they'd have to hope both somehow defy normal aging patterns.

I'm less concerned about replacing or re-signing Ariza. SFs are easier to find than bigs. And, he's younger. A 2-3 year extension at a reasonable price would end at about the time of the normal post-30 dropoff.

THIS!! How quickly people are looking-past the very short-term gain (wins now) when the original plan was a long-term build with a path to contention. Teams rebuilding with youth (The Cavs, NO, Detroit) ARE ALSO WINNING their share of games with huge cap-space next-year.

If Grunfeld continues his historial pattern, Okafor will be traded for "something". I am enjoying the competitive basketball for now, but Kevin nailed the central question we have been asking, what's next?

[tontoz]

While Okafor has been very strong on D and on the boards, he can't shoot. His midrange J sucks and he is sub 60 from the foul line. There are frequent spacing problems with any two of Nene/Okafor/Seraphin on the court at the same time.

And the elephant in the room is what does this team aspire to be? The Milwaukee Bucks?

[nate33]

Most of us agreed that Okafor and Ariza would help the Wizards this season. The thing I questioned (and still do) is what comes next. The Wizards are heavily reliant on Okafor's production and he's 30 years old and on a contract that expires after next season. So, Wizards will need to either replace his production with someone else or sign a 32-year old to a new deal and hope he bucks the odds and remains productive into his mid-30s.

Now, that might not be a bad bet. There are players comparable to Okafor who maintained high levels of play into their late 30s. Maybe Okafor can do it too. There are also comparable guys who had the usual post-30 decline.

And, it would put the Wizards in the position of having two 30+ bigs they'd have to hope both somehow defy normal aging patterns.

I'm less concerned about replacing or re-signing Ariza. SFs are easier to find than bigs. And, he's younger. A 2-3 year extension at a reasonable price would end at about the time of the normal post-30 dropoff.

THIS!! How quickly people are looking-past the very short-term gain (wins now) when the original plan was a long-term build with a path to contention. Teams rebuilding with youth (The Cavs, NO, Detroit) ARE ALSO WINNING their share of games with huge cap-space next-year.

If Grunfeld continues his historial pattern, Okafor will be traded for "something". I am enjoying the competitive basketball for now, but Kevin nailed the central question we have been asking, what's next?

In a way, the problem wasn't with the idea of adding Okafor and Ariza to help establish an identity, the problem was that EG hadn't built a sufficient foundation of young talent yet. Every draft pick he has made has been a disappointment relative to draft position. (Even Beal, who has been terrible other than a 12-game stretch in January.) Take away the veteran crutches on this team (Nene, Okafor, Webster Ariza) and our young, homegrown "talent" is a flaming pile of doodoo. And Beal is the only one that has a strong likelihood of substantially improving in the future.

I'm enjoying the way the team is playing right now, and it should be pretty fun to watch next year, but I'm struggling to see any long term vision here. Our only real hope is that we draft Noel/Zeller and he pans out to be an All-Star caliber big man.

[Dat2U]

We're just an injury excuse away from being back in the NBA cellar. A meaningless feel good season ending run means nothing if this team comes back and wins 30 games next year.

A run largely built on the backs of a couple of 30 yr old bigs and two minimum salaried free agents, so I guess it's built on a solid foundation? Plus outside of Wall, were really getting nothing from our draft picks.

It's hard for me not to see this as fools gold. A run that will likely do the franchise more harm than good because it possibly saves Ernie's job and the front office will now believe this level of play is sustainable and will try to keep the roster together.

[fishercob]

Both things can be true.

This run can be "fools gold" that trades long term success for some short term jollies.

It can also be nice and entertaining. It can be refreshing and cathartic to see this team play tough every single night after doing so almost never.

We can worry about feeling crappy tomorrow ......... tomorrow. But I am enjoying now right now. I have every confidence that I'll remember how to bitch and moan when things go bad again.

[Nivek]

I thought (and still think) the culture could have been changed with younger players who could be part of a longer term rebuild. But, that's a purely academic conversation. Hopefully their strategy will create a lasting change. I think that "culture change" is something that lasts as long as a team can keep bringing in good players.

[Kanyewest]

We're just an injury excuse away from being back in the NBA cellar. A meaningless feel good season ending run means nothing if this team comes back and wins 30 games next year.

A run largely built on the backs of a couple of 30 yr old bigs and two minimum salaried free agents, so I guess it's built on a solid foundation? Plus outside of Wall, were really getting nothing from our draft picks.

It's hard for me not to see this as fools gold. A run that will likely do the franchise more harm than good because it possibly saves Ernie's job and the front office will now believe this level of play is sustainable and will try to keep the roster together.

Bradley Beal has been good. Chris Singleton has been too lately; granted it's only been about 4 games. Seraphin has been a good draft pick even though he was playing like a black hole for a large portion of this season.

[Dat2U]

We're just an injury excuse away from being back in the NBA cellar. A meaningless feel good season ending run means nothing if this team comes back and wins 30 games next year.

A run largely built on the backs of a couple of 30 yr old bigs and two minimum salaried free agents, so I guess it's built on a solid foundation? Plus outside of Wall, were really getting nothing from our draft picks.

It's hard for me not to see this as fools gold. A run that will likely do the franchise more harm than good because it possibly saves Ernie's job and the front office will now believe this level of play is sustainable and will try to keep the roster together.

Bradley Beal has been good. Chris Singleton has been too lately; granted it's only been about 4 games. Seraphin has been a good draft pick even though he was playing like a black hole for a large portion of this season.

I' know he's 19 but outside of a brief January stretch Beal has basically been a bad basketball player.

Seraphin has been terrible all year long. I guess talent wise he was a good pick but for the most part he's hurt the team when he plays.

Singleton? Come on... it's been two games where he hasn't been a complete disaster and is that really a sample size worth bringing up? You might as well start talking about the contributions of Garrett Temple.