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Looking at the numbers . . .

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Post#76 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Tue Dec 4, 2012 4:15 pm by nate33

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:To get back on topic, Nivek, of course Blatche made the diamond list.

If the Wizards trade Vesely, he'll do well on another roster, too. Bradley Beal would soon be a diamond if they trade him. This type of thing is the norm with Washington.

People keep saying this, but it's really not true. As a rule, former Wizards tend to play worse after they have been traded or allowed to depart via free agency:

Blatche - better after departing
McGee - same
Young - terrible in LA. Not so good in Philly either
Hinrich - worse in Atlanta
Gee - better after departing, but does his 22 total games as a Wizard really count?
Jamison - worse in Cleveland and LA
Butler - worse in Dallas and horrible in LA
Haywood - worse in Dallas and about the same in Charlotte
Miller - worse in Miami
McGuire - about the same (useful bench player)

and going back a little further
Jeffries - terrible in New York
Hughes - terrible in Cleveland

With the exception of Blatche in a small sample size, you really have to go back to the days of Rip, B.Wallace, R.Wallace and Webber to find a time when this assertion was actually true.
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Post#77 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Tue Dec 4, 2012 4:23 pm by Knighthonor

remember this saying

"Once a player leaves the Wizards, they become Star Talent!"
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Post#78 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Tue Dec 4, 2012 4:24 pm by JAR69

Nivek wrote:My weekly numbers update at the blog.

Summary:

- I find Leonsis disingenuous or clueless.
- Leonsis says the team is building around 6 youngsters it has acquired over the past 2-3 years. All 6 rate below average this season; 4 of the 6 rate below replacement level; 1 is in negative territory
- Washington has 4 players who have produced at an above-average rate -- all player fewer than 22 minutes per game.


No, no, you are missing the point. Let's assume Wall comes back and plays at the same slightly below average level he did at the end of last year, but can only go for 20+ minutes per game. That means we can put five players on the court who are, in the aggregate, above-average. The catch is that we can only do so for 20+ minutes per game. So EG just needs to make the league shorten the games by half. Voila, playoffs. :)
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Post#79 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Tue Dec 4, 2012 5:10 pm by Nivek

Took a look at the Leonsis claim that the Wizards will be better when they get Wall back and can play at a faster pace. Shockingly, the evidence doesn't support that assertion.
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Post#80 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Tue Dec 4, 2012 6:02 pm by dandridge 10

nate33 wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:To get back on topic, Nivek, of course Blatche made the diamond list.

If the Wizards trade Vesely, he'll do well on another roster, too. Bradley Beal would soon be a diamond if they trade him. This type of thing is the norm with Washington.

People keep saying this, but it's really not true. As a rule, former Wizards tend to play worse after they have been traded or allowed to depart via free agency:

Blatche - better after departing
McGee - same
Young - terrible in LA. Not so good in Philly either
Hinrich - worse in Atlanta
Gee - better after departing, but does his 22 total games as a Wizard really count?
Jamison - worse in Cleveland and LA
Butler - worse in Dallas and horrible in LA
Haywood - worse in Dallas and about the same in Charlotte
Miller - worse in Miami
McGuire - about the same (useful bench player)

and going back a little further
Jeffries - terrible in New York
Hughes - terrible in Cleveland

With the exception of Blatche in a small sample size, you really have to go back to the days of Rip, B.Wallace, R.Wallace and Webber to find a time when this assertion was actually true.


You can add Pecherov to that list too, as he essentially played himself out of the league.
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Post#81 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Tue Dec 4, 2012 6:17 pm by Chocolate City Jordanaire

If they didn't play better, the sure ended up better off and appreciated by their future teams.

DeShawn played in the finals and has a ring. Caron played in the playoffs with the Clippers and is still starting. He DeShawn and Brendan are NBA Champions, even if they were along for the ride. All are useful players who could help this Wizards team. Jamison played worse in Cleveland and was so bad he's with the Lakers. Miller was worse with the Heat due to injuries, until he hit six threes in a deciding NBA Championship game. He is better off. Young played worse with the Clippers and might not be any better at all with Philly but still has the support of Doug Collins. McGee was a guy I predicted was going to be playing in the playoffs when Denver appeared to be mailing in their season. He has more playoff appearances than Okafor, already.

The young bigs McGee and Blatche are relevant to the Ted/EG era. Both have PERs over 20 after being called knuckleheads months ago. My point about Blatche on Nivek's diamond rating is that I believe Beal would be on it and Vesely WILL be better in another uniform.

As for Pecherov, the Wizards traded him to the 15-67 Minnesota Timberwolves, coached by Kurt Rambis. He started 5 games, shot .550 FG, and averaged 10 points and 6 rebounds in 22 minutes of play. That would be 15 and 9 over 33 minutes. Pecherov was behind a couple guys named Kevin Love and Al Jefferson. The point guards were Jonny Flynn and Ramon Sessions of 3 years ago. His career was derailed by not being in the right place at the right time, and by not being tough minded or having good veterans around him.

Vesely is not Pecherov. If you could morph the two into one player, that player would be something like Alex Len.

nate, I'm not disagreeing that the players are not better per se, but totally disagree that they're not almost ALL better off away from the Wizards.
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Post#82 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Tue Dec 4, 2012 6:24 pm by Nivek

"Better off" is a completely different statement than "better." The players haven't gotten better, but many are better off.
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Post#83 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Tue Dec 4, 2012 6:31 pm by dandridge 10

Nivek wrote:"Better off" is a completely different statement than "better." The players haven't gotten better, but many are better off.


Exactly, and the reason why most of those players are (or were) better off is because they went to better teams.
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Post#84 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Tue Dec 4, 2012 6:52 pm by Chocolate City Jordanaire

dandridge 10 wrote:
Nivek wrote:"Better off" is a completely different statement than "better." The players haven't gotten better, but many are better off.


Exactly, and the reason why most of those players are (or were) better off is because they went to better teams.


And the reason they went to better teams is the Wizards were worse. It is a chicken and egg thing. Which occurred first? Did the players stink that they acquired or did the team that acquired them stink?

Also, nate and Nivek, I beg to differ as to whether the players got worse.

Jamison put up 50-plus a couple of times the Warriors. The Wizards traded him when he was aged 32. Jamison didn't play worse as a Cavalier with Lebron on his team. He stunk when Lebron left the Cavs. He played 25 games with Lebron in 2009-2010. His playoff PER and WS/48 with Cleveland is not an outlier either way.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... san01.html

Butler started for the Heat and the Lakers before he was a Wizard. Immediately after being traded, his PER and his WS/48 went up before he suffered an injury as a Maverick. They did better starting Shawn Marion, but Caron did not immediately get worse with Dallas. He got hurt. They won without him. Neither Jamison nor Butler was playing much defense with the Wizards. Both those guys are still playing at much the same level today.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... eca01.html

We can go around and around on this. I think they are better off and did not play worse--I will give you that they did not play better--with their new teams.

What I think is the Wizards the past 5 seasons have always been losing and in turmoil. The players could all be decent roll players but the life cycle has been to discard players on acrimonious terms, rather than to discard the GM.

Did those players stink or did the GM and the front office stink after signing Arenas only to see him succumb to his pre-existing injuries?
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Post#85 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Tue Dec 4, 2012 7:21 pm by penbeast0

"Roll Players?" Are those guys who only look good on winning teams?
[quote="Nivek"] This post could come only from a Wizards fan. It somehow combines delusional optimism with soul-crushing pessimism.
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Post#86 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Tue Dec 4, 2012 7:33 pm by Chocolate City Jordanaire

penbeast0 wrote:"Roll Players?" Are those guys who only look good on winning teams?

They look good at the buffet line, penbeast.

Dinner roll. Tootsie Roll. Breakfast Roll. Roll Tide ...

Role player. My bad, penbeast. :oops:
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Post#87 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Tue Dec 4, 2012 8:02 pm by hands11

nate33 wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:To get back on topic, Nivek, of course Blatche made the diamond list.

If the Wizards trade Vesely, he'll do well on another roster, too. Bradley Beal would soon be a diamond if they trade him. This type of thing is the norm with Washington.

People keep saying this, but it's really not true. As a rule, former Wizards tend to play worse after they have been traded or allowed to depart via free agency:

Blatche - better after departing
McGee - same
Young - terrible in LA. Not so good in Philly either
Hinrich - worse in Atlanta
Gee - better after departing, but does his 22 total games as a Wizard really count?
Jamison - worse in Cleveland and LA
Butler - worse in Dallas and horrible in LA
Haywood - worse in Dallas and about the same in Charlotte
Miller - worse in Miami
McGuire - about the same (useful bench player)

and going back a little further
Jeffries - terrible in New York
Hughes - terrible in Cleveland

With the exception of Blatche in a small sample size, you really have to go back to the days of Rip, B.Wallace, R.Wallace and Webber to find a time when this assertion was actually true.


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Post#88 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Wed Dec 5, 2012 1:13 pm by Zonkerbl

Yeah, players go from a situation in DC where they were expected to contribute a lot and failed and go to a situation at a better team where they're expected to do a lot less and succeed.
Comparing Rose to Wall is like asking which is a more impressive cat: A cheetah or a wolf? Dude, Wall ain’t no damn cat!
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Post#89 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Wed Dec 5, 2012 1:33 pm by Nivek

"A lot of what we call talent is the desire to practice."
-- Malcolm Gladwell

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Post#90 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Wed Dec 5, 2012 1:39 pm by Zonkerbl

We're certainly not doing Beal any favors throwing him to the wolves in the starting unit.
Comparing Rose to Wall is like asking which is a more impressive cat: A cheetah or a wolf? Dude, Wall ain’t no damn cat!
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Post#91 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Wed Dec 5, 2012 1:44 pm by dobrojim

I don't know how important this is but I will simply note that early
on as a Frosh last year Beal also struggled. Then he got better.
Which is the bigger jump, HS -> NCAA div 1 or NCAA div 1 -> NBA.
I think the latter.

Do I have concerns that his shooting has not been good? Sure.
Let's see how he shoots after the all star break.
A lot of what we call 'thought' is just mental activity
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Post#92 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Wed Dec 5, 2012 2:13 pm by nate33


Interesting. I never would have guessed that he compares so unfavorably in rebounds.
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Post#93 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Wed Dec 5, 2012 2:23 pm by nate33

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:DeShawn played in the finals and has a ring. Caron played in the playoffs with the Clippers and is still starting. He DeShawn and Brendan are NBA Champions, even if they were along for the ride. All are useful players who could help this Wizards team. Jamison played worse in Cleveland and was so bad he's with the Lakers. Miller was worse with the Heat due to injuries, until he hit six threes in a deciding NBA Championship game. He is better off. Young played worse with the Clippers and might not be any better at all with Philly but still has the support of Doug Collins. McGee was a guy I predicted was going to be playing in the playoffs when Denver appeared to be mailing in their season. He has more playoff appearances than Okafor, already.

CCJ, it drives me crazy when you do this. You cherrypick anecdotal evidence to back up your assertions, when any unbiased observation using real stats say just the opposite. Just because Miller hit 6 threes in one game does not mean he was a better player after he left. Just because Jamison has found himself on the Lakers, does not mean he played better. Just because DeShawn got a ring while playing 16 minutes a game doesn't mean he played better after leaving.

It's obviously true that these players left a bad team and joined a contending team and therefore probably enjoyed their new position better. But the whole reason this argument started was because you implied that the Wizards are somehow fundamentally deficient in getting the best out of their players. That's simply not the case. Their deficiency is in acquiring good players in the first place. The ones that they get play within their career norms when they're here.
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Post#94 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Wed Dec 5, 2012 4:02 pm by tontoz

The Wizards are currently 15th in defensive efficiency and 12th in defensive rebounding rate. The latter number comes as a bit of a shock.
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Post#95 Re: Looking at the numbers . . .
Wed Dec 5, 2012 4:32 pm by Nivek

Wiz are not awful on defense although I think they'll miss Ariza on that end. They might welcome his absence on the offensive end, however.
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