Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I

AFM · Post #441 » by **AFM** » Thu Jan 10, 2013 11:44 am

Good analysis. I also like CJ Leslie. Didn't he play with wall in HS?
I wonder if any of the experts here can rank the players by handspeed?

Post #442 » by **Ruzious** » Thu Jan 10, 2013 1:29 pm

I see CJ Leslie the same way I saw James Gist - a very talented college PF who just doesn't have the frame to play PF in the NBA and really doesn't have the skills to play SF.

MCW is a player I'm trying to figure out how good he can be. His steal numbers are spectacular, and the assists speak for themselves (if assists talk). For some reason my gut is skeptical. Seeing that he's a 21 year old soph is part of it. Also, it seems like he rushes his shots and forces things too much. And he's got great height for a PG, but his strength is not good. But I could definitely see him going in the top 10, as his positives are so intriguing. I need to see him play again to get a better sense of how he fits in the NBA.

Severn Hoos · Post #443 » by **Severn Hoos** » Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:10 pm

Crazy thought - and I'm a huge Beal fan - but the Thunder have the Raptors' 1st round pick this year (Top 3 protected). Let's suppose that the Raptors - currently with the 10th worst record - revert to the mean and the pick winds up around #5 or 6. Then further suppose that the Wiz can/will pick McLemore. Would you trade Beal to the Thunder for the 5th or 6th pick to get a big, knowing McLemore could take his place? (Or, if McLemore was somehow available with the Raptors/Thunder pick, and take Noel or Shabazz in the top 3?) Maybe OKC would prefer McLemore, but given their status as a contender, Beal with a year's experience might make more sense than a rookie McLemore?

Post #444 » by **nate33** » Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:15 pm

Severn Hoos wrote:Crazy thought - and I'm a huge Beal fan - but the Thunder have the Raptors' 1st round pick this year (Top 3 protected). Let's suppose that the Raptors - currently with the 10th worst record - revert to the mean and the pick winds up around #5 or 6. Then further suppose that the Wiz can/will pick McLemore. Would you trade Beal to the Thunder for the 5th or 6th pick to get a big, knowing McLemore could take his place? (Or, if McLemore was somehow available with the Raptors/Thunder pick, and take Noel or Shabazz in the top 3?) Maybe OKC would prefer McLemore, but given their status as a contender, Beal with a year's experience might make more sense than a rookie McLemore?

Tough to answer that question right now. If we're talking about the Beal that we've seen for most of this season, then my answer is yes. But if Beal plays out the rest of the season looking like the guy we've seen over the past 5 games, then I'd probably say no.

Nivek · Post #445 » by **Nivek** » Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:23 pm

Severn Hoos wrote:Crazy thought - and I'm a huge Beal fan - but the Thunder have the Raptors' 1st round pick this year (Top 3 protected). Let's suppose that the Raptors - currently with the 10th worst record - revert to the mean and the pick winds up around #5 or 6. Then further suppose that the Wiz can/will pick McLemore. Would you trade Beal to the Thunder for the 5th or 6th pick to get a big, knowing McLemore could take his place? (Or, if McLemore was somehow available with the Raptors/Thunder pick, and take Noel or Shabazz in the top 3?) Maybe OKC would prefer McLemore, but given their status as a contender, Beal with a year's experience might make more sense than a rookie McLemore?

Not many minutes yet, and the schedule hasn't really started to get challenging, BUT McLemore looks better in YODA so far than Beal did last year. It would depend a lot on who was available at 5 or 6.

Dat2U · Post #446 » by **Dat2U** » Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:46 pm

I think it amounts to wasting a top 5 pick if it's spent on a wing player that has no ability to create shots off the bounce.

I don't know if it matters how well McLemore shoots it or dunks it, if he can't create his own shot he's basically a role player in the NBA. I wouldn't be looking to swap Beal for McLemore b/c IMO Beal's handles, although still a work in progress are further along.

In regards to Bennett, no type of a player has a higher bust potential in the lottery than a tweener that's stuck b/w SF & PF. Bennett may be able to score & block shots with aplomb in college but can he defend & crash the defensive boards like a 4 or defend acceptably on the perimeter as a 3?

To me right now the 3 biggest risks at the top of the draft are McLemore (skillset), Bennett (tweener) & Goubert (raw underdeveloped project).

Post #447 » by **Ruzious** » Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:50 pm

I like Beal. He's going to be a good solid player for a lot of years, and seems to be the kind of player I'd root for. He might even make an all-star team one year. But... he simply does not have the physical ability that McLemore has - and McLemore is every bit as skilled and then some - particularly as a shooter. If the Wiz can maneuver to essentially get McLemore for Beal, they should do it, imo.

Post #448 » by **Ruzious** » Thu Jan 10, 2013 4:58 pm

Dat2U wrote:I think it amounts to wasting a top 5 pick if it's spent on a wing player that has no ability to create shots off the bounce.

I don't know if it matters how well McLemore shoots it or dunks it, if he can't create his own shot he's basically a role player in the NBA. I wouldn't be looking to swap Beal for McLemore b/c IMO Beal's handles, although still a work in progress are further along.

Aside from 1 clutch maneuver against Kendrick Perkins - who really can't defend the pick n roll anymore and shouldn't have been on the floor if OKC's coach was thinking at the time - Beal has shown only mediocre ability to create his shot. Watch him compared to Harden for example, and there's an enormous difference.

Dat2U · Post #449 » by **Dat2U** » Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:01 pm

Ruzious wrote:McLemore is every bit as skilled and then some - particularly as a shooter. If the Wiz can maneuver to essentially get McLemore for Beal, they should do it, imo.

That's where I'd disagree, unless its a straight line drive, McLemore struggles mightly when forced to create. That's not being "every bit as skilled and then some". That's a guy that's likely to spend his career as a spot up shooter & coming off of screens.

Dat2U · Post #450 » by **Dat2U** » Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:04 pm

Ruzious wrote:
Dat2U wrote:I think it amounts to wasting a top 5 pick if it's spent on a wing player that has no ability to create shots off the bounce.

I don't know if it matters how well McLemore shoots it or dunks it, if he can't create his own shot he's basically a role player in the NBA. I wouldn't be looking to swap Beal for McLemore b/c IMO Beal's handles, although still a work in progress are further along.

Aside from 1 clutch maneuver against Kendrick Perkins - who really can't defend the pick n roll anymore and shouldn't have been on the floor if OKC's coach was thinking at the time - Beal has shown only mediocre ability to create his shot. Watch him compared to Harden for example, and there's an enormous difference.

I don't disagree there. Beal is only a mediocre shot creator at this stage (especially compared to Harden), but IMO he has more shot creation skill than McLemore.

Post #451 » by **Ruzious** » Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:29 pm

Dat2U wrote:
Ruzious wrote:McLemore is every bit as skilled and then some - particularly as a shooter. If the Wiz can maneuver to essentially get McLemore for Beal, they should do it, imo.

That's where I'd disagree, unless its a straight line drive, McLemore struggles mightly when forced to create. That's not being "every bit as skilled and then some". That's a guy that's likely to spend his career as a spot up shooter & coming off of screens.

You're right that McLemore is not a good penetrator, but his advantage in athleticism allows for him to score around the basket in a variety of ways - via cuts, alley-oops, posting up, finishing on breaks - so he can score in ways other than nailing jump shots. Beal is mainly a below the rim scorer. Maybe I'm over-rating McLemore, but I think he's a much better fit with Wall - and I think the Wiz have to begin building with Wall.

Post #452 » by **nate33** » Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:33 pm

I haven't seen McLemore play, but I have trouble agreeing with the notion that Beal has a below the rim game. I think Beal is a pretty explosive athlete, at least going by the measurables at the combine. He hasn't figured out how to use that athleticism in the half court set much, but he can definitely get up to flush an alley-oop, and he can sky for a rebound in traffic.

Dat2U · Post #453 » by **Dat2U** » Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:41 pm

Ruzious wrote:
Dat2U wrote:
Ruzious wrote:McLemore is every bit as skilled and then some - particularly as a shooter. If the Wiz can maneuver to essentially get McLemore for Beal, they should do it, imo.

That's where I'd disagree, unless its a straight line drive, McLemore struggles mightly when forced to create. That's not being "every bit as skilled and then some". That's a guy that's likely to spend his career as a spot up shooter & coming off of screens.

You're right that McLemore is not a good penetrator, but his advantage in athleticism allows for him to score around the basket in a variety of ways - via cuts, alley-oops, posting up, finishing on breaks - so he can score in ways other than nailing jump shots. Beal is mainly a below the rim scorer. Maybe I'm over-rating McLemore, but I think he's a much better fit with Wall - and I think the Wiz have to begin building with Wall.

I hear ya. But I heard the same things said about Wes Johnson too a few years back when I brought up similar concerns about a wing with little shot creation ability. But Wes was much older so it's not an exact comparison.

As we know, it's January so my opinion is likely to change 100 times b/w now and the draft.

Post #454 » by **Ruzious** » Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:42 pm

nate33 wrote:I haven't seen McLemore play, but I have trouble agreeing with the notion that Beal has a below the rim game. I think Beal is a pretty explosive athlete, at least going by the measurables at the combine. He hasn't figured out how to use that athleticism in the half court set much, but he can definitely get up to flush an alley-oop, and he can sky for a rebound in traffic.

Just watching him play when he's on offense around the rim - he generally plays below the rim - even when he scores. Same thing with Seraphin. Both have good length. Both can probably jump high when they have time to gather themselves. But they effectively play shorter, because they don't get off the ground quickly. Of course, any NBA player is going to make the occasional highlight play when they get a head of steam.

Post #455 » by **Ruzious** » Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:45 pm

Dat2U wrote:
Ruzious wrote:
Dat2U wrote:That's where I'd disagree, unless its a straight line drive, McLemore struggles mightly when forced to create. That's not being "every bit as skilled and then some". That's a guy that's likely to spend his career as a spot up shooter & coming off of screens.

You're right that McLemore is not a good penetrator, but his advantage in athleticism allows for him to score around the basket in a variety of ways - via cuts, alley-oops, posting up, finishing on breaks - so he can score in ways other than nailing jump shots. Beal is mainly a below the rim scorer. Maybe I'm over-rating McLemore, but I think he's a much better fit with Wall - and I think the Wiz have to begin building with Wall.

I hear ya. But I heard the same things said about Wes Johnson too a few years back when I brought up similar concerns about a wing with little shot creation ability. But Wes was much older so it's not an exact comparison.

As we know, it's January so my opinion is likely to change 100 times b/w now and the draft.

True that - or true Dat. I bought into Wes Johnson at the beginning of his big year. Now I steer clear of any over-aged prospect.

Severn Hoos · Post #456 » by **Severn Hoos** » Thu Jan 10, 2013 7:04 pm

Thanks, guys - I think I'd probably stay with Beal over McLemore. Now - Beal for McLemore + the OKC late 1st? I might go for that.

And here's something that really surprised me:

* Jun 28, 1993

* February 12, 1992

The first is Beal's birthdate, and the second is McLemore's. That's right, Beal is almost a year and a half younger than McLemore. (And I also just found out that they were teammates in St. Louis. Apparently I've been living in a cave for the past year.)

So - younger prospect, already has NBA experience, great character. I guess I will stay with Beal, but will be watching McLemore's season with interest. It was Kev's YODA posts that piqued my interest - and if he can keep up his performance through conference & tournament play, I may revisit this point, but for now I'm just glad to see nate as a Beal supporter! ;-)

Post #457 » by **Ruzious** » Thu Jan 10, 2013 7:27 pm

I think that's a mistake on McLemore's birthday - which was actually 2/11/93. He is older than Beal - but it's just by about 4 months

Severn Hoos · Post #458 » by **Severn Hoos** » Thu Jan 10, 2013 7:50 pm

What? Wikipedia's always right! My faith in the integrity of that site is shaken to the core!!

Actually, Wikipedia, nbadraft.net, and most other sites all list 1992 as his year of birth, although they could certainly all be drawing from the same (incorrect) original source. I was surprised that even as a Redshirt, a Freshman could be 21 years old...

Post #459 » by **Ruzious** » Thu Jan 10, 2013 9:18 pm

Yeah, I'd guess every site just copied the wrong date, and draftexpress.com did the right homework.

Another player to keep an eye out for on the 2nd round is Arkansaser hybrid soph guard BJ Young. He's 6'3 175 and super-quick and fast. He's a natural scorer who's greatly improved his A/TO ratio, but his 3 point and foul-shooting percentages have gone way down. If he comes out, he could slide because NBA GM's will question if he's a legit 1 or 2. But he has near Lillard type ability - if he improves his shot. Playing with Wall, he can be more of a 2, and they would run teams ragged - much like the Wall/Bledsoe combo at KY.

Severn Hoos · Post #460 » by **Severn Hoos** » Thu Jan 10, 2013 9:30 pm

Ruzious wrote:Yeah, I'd guess every site just copied the wrong date, and draftexpress.com did the right homework.

Not to scare you, but the closest thing I could find to a confirmation of 1993 as his birth year was an article from his Redshirt year (Dec 2011) in a Kansas newspaper that listed his age as 18. Unfortunately that article was about how he had " been arrested after missing a Dec. 6 court appearance to answer a citation for underage possession of alcohol." Not that that makes him different from just about any other college freshman in the country, so here's hoping it truly was an isolated incident.

(Unfortunately, my work filter blocks draftexpress. Wonder what they find so threatening about that site...?)