Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I

[jmrosenth]

Zeller looked real bad last night, there's no sugarcoating it. Those are the games that scare me a bit when thinking about his pro potential. He's had a few too many of those clunkers for me not to have pause on his game at the next level. He could probably use another year and it wouldn't shock me if he stayed. As a team, IU got destroyed on the boards, played their probably worst offensive game of the season, and still only lost by 4. I'm not worried.

[JAR69]

Zeller looked real bad last night, there's no sugarcoating it. Those are the games that scare me a bit when thinking about his pro potential. He's had a few too many of those clunkers for me not to have pause on his game at the next level. He could probably use another year and it wouldn't shock me if he stayed. As a team, IU got destroyed on the boards, played their probably worst offensive game of the season, and still only lost by 4. I'm not worried.

The other thing that frequently worries me about Zeller is that he often disappears in the closing minutes of games. Last year, especially, during close games Zeller didn't seem to even get touches at the end. Part of that is his teammates, but part of that is on him.

[REDardWIZskin]

Isaiah Austin is another prospect who is interesting and i think if he was European he would be included in more 1st overall talks. 7'1 and a 32% 3pt shooter. Decent rim protector. He needs to add weight but can be effective now as a pick and pop big until the rest of his game develops.

Porter is a guy I want at SF position.

If Nerlens falls because of the ACL, I take him and be done with it. He's a great passer for a big man we could let him rehab most of next season. With OKafor, maybe a healthy Booker hopefully improved Ves and Seraphin fighting for minutes

[Nivek]

Isaiah Austin is another prospect who is interesting and i think if he was European he would be included in more 1st overall talks. 7'1 and a 32% 3pt shooter. Decent rim protector. He needs to add weight but can be effective now as a pick and pop big until the rest of his game develops.

Austin currently rates as a borderline 2nd round pick in YODA. Nothing stands out in the stats as something he does well. His rebounding is solid for a center, but not exceptional. His offensive efficiency is awful. He shoots a fair number of 3s at a not-awful percentage, but his free throw shooting is abysmal. And FT shooting is a better indicator of pure shooting ability than 3pt%. He's making 51% of his 2pt attempts -- big men who make the transition from college to the pros typically make somewhere in the vicinity of 60% inside the arc.

[Nivek]

What the heck happened to Tony Mitchell at North Texas? Last year, he rated as a late 1st. This year, his efficiency is awful, he's shooting worse from everywhere, and his rebounds, assists and blocks have all dropped. For this season, he's solidly in the "don't draft" category.

[nate33]

Isaiah Austin is another prospect who is interesting and i think if he was European he would be included in more 1st overall talks. 7'1 and a 32% 3pt shooter. Decent rim protector. He needs to add weight but can be effective now as a pick and pop big until the rest of his game develops.

Austin currently rates as a borderline 2nd round pick in YODA. Nothing stands out in the stats as something he does well. His rebounding is solid for a center, but not exceptional. His offensive efficiency is awful. He shoots a fair number of 3s at a not-awful percentage, but his free throw shooting is abysmal. And FT shooting is a better indicator of pure shooting ability than 3pt%. He's making 51% of his 2pt attempts -- big men who make the transition from college to the pros typically make somewhere in the vicinity of 60% inside the arc.

Isiah Austin's name sounds too much like Ike Austin. For that reason alone, I would never draft him.

[pancakes3]

Zeller looked real bad last night, there's no sugarcoating it. Those are the games that scare me a bit when thinking about his pro potential. He's had a few too many of those clunkers for me not to have pause on his game at the next level. He could probably use another year and it wouldn't shock me if he stayed. As a team, IU got destroyed on the boards, played their probably worst offensive game of the season, and still only lost by 4. I'm not worried.

My layman's opinion on the game was that Zeller was active in boxing out but not getting the boards. He'd seal off one side of the lane but if the ball bounced off to the other side, it was a sure offensive-rebound for Minny. Offensively, zone doesn't help but Zeller was having a tough time getting position where the guards can get him the ball cleanly. On the other hand, he wasn't posting up a lot and his main role in the offense was mostly as a screen setter and then getting points off-ball. How much of that is by design and how much by necessity is anyone's guess.

Also, I didn't think that Zeller disappeared down the stretch as much as Oladipo did. The pg Ferrell was taking most of the iso's at the end of the game where they really needed it. Zeller had a drive and a follow-up tip, both of which missed. Also he was in foul trouble and Minny really keyed in on that and went right at him in consecutive possessions. Oladipo did have a fast break coast to coast where he drew a foul, but in the scheme of the offense, it was still Fuller running the show. Doesn't bode well for Oladipo's iso-skills.

[stevemcqueen1]

Isiah Austin's name sounds too much like Ike Austin. For that reason alone, I would never draft him.

Ike Austin is his uncle.

My take is he's been pretty invisible this year but has had the occasional completely dominant game. He's inconsistent but his "dialed in" is as good if not better than any other big in the class. He'll lock down the post and alter any shot that comes his way, he'll grab 20 boards, and he'll nail the three ball. Those moments don't seem to come very often though.

I think he's a high risk/reward prospect. Very raw but the handful of skills he does have are very diverse and unique. He's a very odd player.

[TGW]

I'm leaning towards staying away from Zeller. He reminds me way too much of Tyler Hansborough for my liking, even if he is a couple of inches taller. Hansborough has the longer wingspan by 3 inches, so I'm guessing Zeller probably has a shorter standing reach...you can almost say Zeller has t-rex arms for his height.

I'd be upset if Zeller was the pick...I don't think there's any upside there IMO. Unless he develops a deadeye jumpshot, I just don't see his abilities translating well to the pros.

[stevemcqueen1]

Zeller looked real bad last night, there's no sugarcoating it. Those are the games that scare me a bit when thinking about his pro potential. He's had a few too many of those clunkers for me not to have pause on his game at the next level. He could probably use another year and it wouldn't shock me if he stayed. As a team, IU got destroyed on the boards, played their probably worst offensive game of the season, and still only lost by 4. I'm not worried.

My layman's opinion on the game was that Zeller was active in boxing out but not getting the boards. He'd seal off one side of the lane but if the ball bounced off to the other side, it was a sure offensive-rebound for Minny. Offensively, zone doesn't help but Zeller was having a tough time getting position where the guards can get him the ball cleanly. On the other hand, he wasn't posting up a lot and his main role in the offense was mostly as a screen setter and then getting points off-ball. How much of that is by design and how much by necessity is anyone's guess.

Also, I didn't think that Zeller disappeared down the stretch as much as Oladipo did. The pg Ferrell was taking most of the iso's at the end of the game where they really needed it. Zeller had a drive and a follow-up tip, both of which missed. Also he was in foul trouble and Minny really keyed in on that and went right at him in consecutive possessions. Oladipo did have a fast break coast to coast where he drew a foul, but in the scheme of the offense, it was still Fuller running the show. Doesn't bode well for Oladipo's iso-skills.

I think all of that is accurate and matches what I saw.

I actually thought it was a bad game for each of Indiana's "big 3." Zeller was a nonfactor on offense almost the entire game and clearly struggled with Minnesota's strength inside. Watford didn't show up until the end of the game. Oladipo struggled to get anything going when the defense made him go left. He's not that strong with his off hand.

Mbakwe ate Zeller alive in a pure strength mismatch. But I think it's worth pointing out Mbakwe is four years older than him. Getting stronger has always been Zeller's biggest area for iprovement. He has compared to last season but last night showed he's not NBA caliber yet.

The one thing I thought Zeller did do well was defense. Particularly with his number of fouls. He played good positional D and contested most of the shots in his area. He does a really good job defending the pick and roll. And he did a fair job boxing out. In general, Indiana is a terrible rebounding team it seems. The guards don't do a good job boxing out so Minnesota got a ton of rebounds outside of Zeller's area despite him sealing off his man. Watford is also a perimeter oriented forward who is a sketchy rebounder.

I think when Zeller gets stronger he'll actually be a pretty good defender. Much like Nene. He'll get a few blocks but it's not going to be a weapon. He'll get a high number of steals for the position though because he's savvy poking out the ball from opponents posting up and contesting entry passes then quickly recovering.

But last night put the brakes on any thought of Zeller coming in and playing at a very high level immediately in his NBA career. Mbakwe was essentially what a strong NBA interior player would look like. Zeller still has a ways to go getting his body ready for the NBA.

[Dark Faze]

How do you guys feel about Kelly Olynyk?

He's a skilled shooter at 7 foot. 80+ % FT shooter and great percentages from mid range and deep. His offensive rating is extremely high around 130 or so.

Wonder if we can make some trades to get a mid 1st to pick him up.

He may not be a great man defender but he's a high IQ player that fits into our team defense concepts. I think he can also get a little stronger also so he's not done filling out.

[Nivek]

How do you guys feel about Kelly Olynyk?

He's a skilled shooter at 7 foot. 80+ % FT shooter and great percentages from mid range and deep. His offensive rating is extremely high around 130 or so.

Wonder if we can make some trades to get a mid 1st to pick him up.

He may not be a great man defender but he's a high IQ player that fits into our team defense concepts. I think he can also get a little stronger also so he's not done filling out.

Rates very well in YODA -- 4th best score of the players I have in the database for this season. It'll be interesting to see what his measurements are. Everything looks good with him, except for turnovers. But his shooting is excellent -- nearly 70% from 2pt range.

[manifested]

How do you guys feel about Kelly Olynyk?

He's a skilled shooter at 7 foot. 80+ % FT shooter and great percentages from mid range and deep. His offensive rating is extremely high around 130 or so.

Wonder if we can make some trades to get a mid 1st to pick him up.

He may not be a great man defender but he's a high IQ player that fits into our team defense concepts. I think he can also get a little stronger also so he's not done filling out.

Rates very well in YODA -- 4th best score of the players I have in the database for this season. It'll be interesting to see what his measurements are. Everything looks good with him, except for turnovers. But his shooting is excellent -- nearly 70% from 2pt range.

Good write up on Olynyk here: http://seattletimes.com/html/gonzaga/20 ... iY.twitter

The coordination drills in the article sound really interesting. Sounds like he would be a good player to target if we end up outside the top 10. We could use another multi-skilled scorer, especially one that can shoot from range.

[Ruzious]

How do you guys feel about Kelly Olynyk?

He's a skilled shooter at 7 foot. 80+ % FT shooter and great percentages from mid range and deep. His offensive rating is extremely high around 130 or so.

Wonder if we can make some trades to get a mid 1st to pick him up.

He may not be a great man defender but he's a high IQ player that fits into our team defense concepts. I think he can also get a little stronger also so he's not done filling out.

Rates very well in YODA -- 4th best score of the players I have in the database for this season. It'll be interesting to see what his measurements are. Everything looks good with him, except for turnovers. But his shooting is excellent -- nearly 70% from 2pt range.

I don't think he fits into NBA team defense concepts, because his feet don't move quickly enough to defend the p&r. Opponents will have their choice of p&ring him or bullying him down low where he has a narrow frame and at 22 isn't likely to get a whole lot stronger. He can also be turnover prone (7 in the last game). He can probably be effective in certain matchups, but I wouldn't pick him.

[Nivek]

Interesting observations, Ruz. DX's describes him as having "excellent mobility" and says he moves his feet well for his size. But then says he lacks lateral quickness.

It'll be interesting to see what his combine numbers look like.

When I add in the age adjustment, he drops a few spots. Still a good YODA rating, though.

[Ruzious]

Interesting observations, Ruz. DX's describes him as having "excellent mobility" and says he moves his feet well for his size. But then says he lacks lateral quickness.

It'll be interesting to see what his combine numbers look like.

When I add in the age adjustment, he drops a few spots. Still a good YODA rating, though.

It's like some players are mobile on offense and immobile on defense. They're athletic when it comes to scoring and stiff when it comes to defending. It's a conundrum.

[stevemcqueen1]

I like Olynyk's skills but he looks painfully slow and deliberate to me.

[Nivek]

Haven't seen him play yet, so I can't offer a worthwhile opinion. His production this season looks pretty good. Centers with a similar rating include Nazr Mohammed (JR), Brad Miller (SR), Roy Hibbert (JR), Marcus Camby (JR). I wouldn't consider him a lock to be a quality NBA player, but his overall production is similar to some guys who have been solid players.

[tontoz]

Interesting observations, Ruz. DX's describes him as having "excellent mobility" and says he moves his feet well for his size. But then says he lacks lateral quickness.

It'll be interesting to see what his combine numbers look like.

When I add in the age adjustment, he drops a few spots. Still a good YODA rating, though.

It's like some players are mobile on offense and immobile on defense. They're athletic when it comes to scoring and stiff when it comes to defending. It's a conundrum.

Horford is the opposit. He is fast on D and moving without the ball. When he has the ball in his hands in the half court he looks like Dikembe.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Interesting observations, Ruz. DX's describes him as having "excellent mobility" and says he moves his feet well for his size. But then says he lacks lateral quickness.

It'll be interesting to see what his combine numbers look like.

When I add in the age adjustment, he drops a few spots. Still a good YODA rating, though.

I think the DX scout was attempting to say that Olynyk moves well in transition. He can keep up and get to the rim on a fast break. However, he does not have the kind of lateral quickness needed to defend pick and roll. Olynyk does not hedge and recover well. He is a good offensive player but he's going to be a liability on defense. He doesn't play the passing lanes well or block shots well. So, he runs fast enough but he's not very agile or quick.

I wonder if he's just more motivated on offense when it comes to scoring? A lot of guys don't move well until somebody passes them the ball.