Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I

[gambitx777]

IDk not to high on daviz, i think he could bust to easy, sure he could be something big to but still not to keen on him either.

i think there are a lot of underrated guys in this draft that could make some impact. like otto porter, kelly olynyk, tim hardaway JR, doug mcdermott, Glenn Robinson III, tony mitchell, Isaiah Canaan, Lorenzo Brown, and so on.

[Ruzious]

IDk not to high on daviz, i think he could bust to easy, sure he could be something big to but still not to keen on him either.

i think there are a lot of underrated guys in this draft that could make some impact. like otto porter, kelly olynyk, tim hardaway JR, doug mcdermott, Glenn Robinson III, tony mitchell, Isaiah Canaan, Lorenzo Brown, and so on.

The daviz family is hurt, but Anthony Davis is having an exceptional rookie year for a 19 year old who hasn't finished growing - with an efficient 21.5 PER. My semi-educated views:
Porter - excellent long wing athlete. Reminds me of Batum - great defender but timid on offense. Needs to be more assertive to excell in the NBA.
Olynyk - A year off made him take the game seriously. Excellent offensive 7 footer. Lateral quickness and strength are issues on defense. I think his offense alone makes him a late lotto pick.
TH2 & GR3 - Hardaway is the flashier guy with the big ego, but Robinson is the better player. I'd stay away from Hardaway - as he seems to care more about personal stats than team play.
Tony MItchell - he's the typical case of a guy getting called underrated for so long that he's now overrated. Great athlete, but he hasn't improved, and he's a 6'8 PF.
Ike Canaan & Lo Brown - there's nothing really exciting about these guys. I don't see them as anything more than decent 3rd guards.

[Nivek]

Anthony Davis's freshman season has the 2nd highest rating in my draft analysis database behind only Shaq's sophomore season. Noel looks like a good pro prospect who's worth picking in the top 5, but in my rating system doesn't come within a country mile of Davis. In my old blog, I posted my "standardized" YODA score. Shaq's soph season was best -- 36. Davis was next with a 28. Noel has a 14.

That 14 is actually an excellent score in YODA. Others with 14: Demarcus Cousins (FR), Patrick Ewing (SO), Chris Paul (SO). Some 13s: Tim Duncan (SO), Marcus Camby (SO), Grant Hill (SO), Joe Smith (FR), Chris Bosh (FR). Some 15s: Zach Randolph (FR), Carmelo Anthony (FR), Clyde Drexer (JR), Vince Carter (SO), John Wall, Emeka Okafor (JR), Ray Allen (SO).

Noel's in good company. But he's not in Davis's stratosphere. Biggest difference is Davis's preposterous offensive efficiency -- 65% from 2pt range (Noel at 58%), 71% from FT line (Noel at 57%).

[tontoz]

Len to me looks like a guy who isn't that interested in basketball. I think he is the one guy right now i definitely don't want.

[Ruzious]

Anthony Davis's freshman season has the 2nd highest rating in my draft analysis database behind only Shaq's sophomore season. Noel looks like a good pro prospect who's worth picking in the top 5, but in my rating system doesn't come within a country mile of Davis. In my old blog, I posted my "standardized" YODA score. Shaq's soph season was best -- 36. Davis was next with a 28. Noel has a 14.

That 14 is actually an excellent score in YODA. Others with 14: Demarcus Cousins (FR), Patrick Ewing (SO), Chris Paul (SO). Some 13s: Tim Duncan (SO), Marcus Camby (SO), Grant Hill (SO), Joe Smith (FR), Chris Bosh (FR). Some 15s: Zach Randolph (FR), Carmelo Anthony (FR), Clyde Drexer (JR), Vince Carter (SO), John Wall, Emeka Okafor (JR), Ray Allen (SO).

Noel's in good company. But he's not in Davis's stratosphere. Biggest difference is Davis's preposterous offensive efficiency -- 65% from 2pt range (Noel at 58%), 71% from FT line (Noel at 57%).

That sounds very reasonable. No doubt that Davis is better than Noel, but I would like to see what Noel could do with even a half-way decent point guard - as the college game is very PG dependent.

[Wizardspride]

Len to me looks like a guy who isn't that interested in basketball. I think he is the one guy right now i definitely don't want.

Nah, Len looks like a guy whose teammates can't get him the ball or consistently make jump shots to take the pressure off of him.

[nuposse04]

The best case scenario would be Beal growing 1.5-2 inches like Paul George did, allowing him to be played at SF, and us drafting McLemore. Improbable as hell, but I think would be the best case scenario.

[gambitx777]

IDk not to high on daviz, i think he could bust to easy, sure he could be something big to but still not to keen on him either.

i think there are a lot of underrated guys in this draft that could make some impact. like otto porter, kelly olynyk, tim hardaway JR, doug mcdermott, Glenn Robinson III, tony mitchell, Isaiah Canaan, Lorenzo Brown, and so on.

The daviz family is hurt, but Anthony Davis is having an exceptional rookie year for a 19 year old who hasn't finished growing - with an efficient 21.5 PER. My semi-educated views:
Porter - excellent long wing athlete. Reminds me of Batum - great defender but timid on offense. Needs to be more assertive to excell in the NBA.
Olynyk - A year off made him take the game seriously. Excellent offensive 7 footer. Lateral quickness and strength are issues on defense. I think his offense alone makes him a late lotto pick.
TH2 & GR3 - Hardaway is the flashier guy with the big ego, but Robinson is the better player. I'd stay away from Hardaway - as he seems to care more about personal stats than team play.
Tony MItchell - he's the typical case of a guy getting called underrated for so long that he's now overrated. Great athlete, but he hasn't improved, and he's a 6'8 PF.
Ike Canaan & Lo Brown - there's nothing really exciting about these guys. I don't see them as anything more than decent 3rd guards.

I am not saying davis is bad, i just want to see if he can stay healthy.
and thank you for the analysis. i agree with just about all of that. I feel that if we can pick up another pick between 10-15 we and some how get otto and kelly that would set us up for a while.

[pancakes3]

I too am growing less enamored with Len. He kicked off the season with a bang against UK. Then he played in limited minutes against 12 straight cupcakes but you couldn't hate on it because the per-40 pace adjusted stats were there. Then in the last 4-5 games against ACC competition, he's looked a lot less impressive than the season opener had suggested. Pedestrian rebounding numbers, very few blocks, and his fg% has dipped quite a bit and no 20 pt games since the opener.

[Ruzious]

I agree, gambitx - someone really good is likely going to slip to the 10-15 spot - or at least 10-12 - though things are so fluid at this time o year.

[Jay81]

intersting

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/46844

[Dat2U]

After Noel I'm really drawing a blank who I feel comfortable with.

Shabazz Muhammad - In a normal year he's a mid to late lottery pick at best. Notions of him being a top 3 pick are unfounded IMO.

Cody Zeller - I see a productive NBA player. But again in a normal year he's a mid to late lottery pick. I'd take Cody before Shabazz 10 times out of 10.

Alex Len - I think he'll be solid in time. His upside may be a bit higher than Zeller but Zeller's high motor gives him the nod initially. However, Len may be better NBA player by the time his rookie deal ends, lol.

Ben McLemore - He's got to show more floor game otherwise he's a role player. That said, he's playing like he'll be a pretty good one. But still he's not a high lottery caliber pick. Late lottery to mid 1st rounder is where I'd be comfortable picking him.

Isaiah Austin - He looks a lot like another one of these Brad Sellers wanna be's. Guys that are 6-10 & above that float to the perimeter because physically they have too, not because of some incredible skill set. Even if he does have a little fight in him around the basket with that frame he's not going to last. He's a project & a mid-to-late 1st rounder in a typical year.

Anthony Bennett - The questions I have is how does his skillset translate to the 3 & how does his size translate to the 4. Also, will he even attempt to play D? I think he's a late lottery to mid 1st round selection.

Alex Polythress - Best case scenario in initial analysis of him was Thaddeus Young. He's got some decent tools but has significant stretches of looking just lost out there. He's got a ways to go. Mid to late 1st rounder right now.

Archie Goodwin - Has a bit of Larry Hughes in his game. Good springy athlete. Not a PG but a shot creating 2 and solid passer. I think he's projected about right in most mocks. Mid to late lottery. I think he's got more tools than McLemore but McLemore seems to know his role better.

Rudy Goubert - Foreign guys with weak numbers overseas gets no love from me. Apparently a very mobile & long athlete trying to learn how to play. Yeah, that's the type of guys Ernie loves. Late 1st rounder or early draft & stash 2nd.

Mason Plumlee - I've got senioritis when it comes to him. After watching him get abused for the first few years I take him playing well with a grain of salt in terms of the NBA. He's a late 1st in my book.

C.J. McCollum - Not sure how the injury will effect his draft standing. I think he'll be pretty solid IMO. Wouldn't hesitate to take a late lottery/mid first round pick to draft him.

Michael Carter Williams - I don't trust big PGs that can't make shots and aren't athletic freaks. I smell a bust. IMO he might be worth the risk of a late 1st rounder

Tony Mitchell - Hasn't improved, probably should have came out last year when there was a buzz. Beginning to look a lot like a 6-8 tweener who apparently is a bit flaky. Pass. Late 1st rounder, early 2nd.

Otto Porter - Is definitely intriguing, I like the Nicolas Batum comparison Ruz made. One of the few underrated prospects of the draft. I think he's a rock solid lottery pick... maybe even mid lottery.

Marcus Smart - I think he'll be rock solid PG at the next level. Also a bit underrated. I think he'll rise as the draft gets closer. Another mid-to-late lottery worthy selection

James McAdoo - When he gets listed in a mock as a 2nd rounder he'll reach the point where he's been labeled overrated so much that he's become underrated. A late 1st rounder.

Other potential draftees that intrigue me are:

Victor Olapido - Meet the next Thabo Sefolosha/Mickael Pietrus
Kelly Olynyk - An efficient 7-0 jr. playing at a high level for Gonzaga. Playing his way into the lottery
Dario Sakic - A few years from contributing but better than your average draft & stash.
Jeff Withey - Should pave out a career as a very good reserve defensive center
Doug McDermott - likely another one of CCJ's 2nd round steals unless he can play his way into the 1st round
Lucas Noqueira - Improving international big might be a nice draft & stash candidate
Mike Muscala - Productive big with mid range game. Might give some good backup minutes
DeShaun Thomas - He will score in the NBA. Can't speak to the passing, rebounding or defense though

The draft is probably 15-20 players deep. A good amount of potential busts & disappointments.

This draft has exactly one clear cut top 5 pick at the moment: Noel

You may be better off drafting 6 or 7 and hoping someone rated too high falls to you or drafting a guy that's not as highly acclaimed.

No stars to be found. I'm not even sure there are any all-stars. But some NBA starters will come from this draft as well as some solid role players.

In other words, worrying about lottery balls may not make any sense at this point. There's a 20% of getting Noel and he's not a savior, just a good defensive center in time. If we slip to 7th or 8th in the draft then taking someone like Otto Porter may be just what the doctor ordered.

Also if the pick can help us get Cousins or Horford, at this point, why not? The weak draft combined with the improved play makes me think that might be the best option.

[tontoz]

FWIW Ford said in his chat that Porter was in his personal top 5, which is different from his big board.

[bgroban]

If we somehow land in the top-5 (which is looking more and more unlikely), I wouldn't mind trading down in the draft and acquiring a couple picks. Use one on Otto. The other on a Euro.

[DCZards]

I'm a G'Town fan and I love Porter. But I just don't see the comparison to Batum. He doesn't have that kind of shooting range. Porter is a high IQ, instinctive player, a great rebounder and a long, decent defender. I'd like to see Otto in a Zard uni but I'm worried about his ability to create his own offense. His handle is suspect.

While he has struggled this season, I still think McAdoo is a mid to late lottery pick. He already has an NBA body and once he gets with a pro team, instead of a bunch of so-so UNC players, I expect McAdoo to develop into a very good NBA PF.