Kevin Seraphin Thread - Part II

[dckingsfan]

And what do you feel will be the value of the Ariza and Gortat deals? I know, hard to say since EG tends to overpay. But just a guess. I would assume Booker would take the QO.

[Ruzious]

My daughter often repeats something they taught her at Point Guard College,
in moments of extreme pressure/stress, we generally revert to our most
deeply held habits. Kevin's most deeply held habits have not served him
well. Getting better has been hard for him. Whether or when he crosses
a threshold to become a reliable and effective player is an open question.
But we've seen encouraging signs. He's still relatively young.

I forget, did we renounce him or has that deadline fallen yet?

This is the final year of his rookie deal. It the Wizards keep Ariza/Gortat or even just Gortat there isn't much danger offering him the QO(Qualifying offer). For an offer to a restricted free agent it is possible to conditionally renounce your own free agents, so it may be possible to keep him even if taking a shot at signing Monroe.

With the free agent market being saner than the past, the best move is probably to offer him the QO and decide when he gets an offer sheet.

Seraphin's qualifying offer is $3.9M. I don't feel comfortable committing that much money to him. I'd retain him for vet minimum type money, but no more; not unless he has a killer second-half of the season.

I think we are going to have to renounce his rights and let him become a UFA. Maybe we can still resign him, but we're not going to have any leverage.

The same dilemma exists for Booker. His QO is $3.4M. I think we can afford that if the plan is to resign Gortat and Ariza with Bird Rights. But if the plan is to clear cap and go after Monroe, then we might have to let Booker walk.

The more I think about it, the more it becomes certain that the plan is to maintain the status quo. We will resign Gortat, Ariza and Booker and go from there. The only question is whether or not we will make an effort to clear cap room for 2016 when Nene comes off the books (i.e. sign our free agents to 2-year deals).

I think so, too - and Nivek has alluded to that, as well. If Seraphin comes on, they might choose to keep him over Booker - I don't see them keeping both. If Gortat leaves, they better have a backup plan (fat chance) - but my guess is it's a better than 50/50 chance he stays - in part because EG will overpay to keep him.

[nate33]

So nate, that would give us:

PG: Wall, Vet Min, Maynor
SG: Beal, Webster, Rice
SF: Ariza, Porter, Vet Min
PF: Nene, Booker, Vet Min
C: Gortat, Vet Min, Vet Min

Correct?

Yes. We will also have the MLE at our disposal, but the luxtax is a factor. Whether or not we use the MLE would depend on the cost and structure of the Ariza and Gortat contracts. Assuming Gortat at $10M a year, Ariza at $7M a year and Booker at the QO, our payroll for the team you have above is $66M. It looks like there will be some wiggle room for Seraphin or an MLE type deal.

[dckingsfan]

So nate, that would give us:

PG: Wall, Vet Min, Maynor
SG: Beal, Webster, Rice
SF: Ariza, Porter, Vet Min
PF: Nene, Booker, Vet Min
C: Gortat, Vet Min, Vet Min

Correct?

Yes. We will also have the MLE at our disposal, but the luxtax is a factor. Whether or not we use the MLE would depend on the cost and structure of the Ariza and Gortat contracts. Assuming Gortat at $10M a year, Ariza at $7M a year and Booker at the QO, our payroll for the team you have above is $66M. It looks like there will be some wiggle room for Seraphin or an MLE type deal.

OK, makes sense - then we would have roughly 5M to fill out the roster 5 players at 1M each or 4 at .8M and one at 2M?

[Upper Decker]

If the plan is to resign Ariza then I'd make a push to trade porter for a young big. Kanter seems like a good target. The bloom is of the kanter rose in Utah, but he could be solid off the bench for Washington.

[Nivek]

They could use the MLE for a significant free agent (or split it between a couple players), and then use minimum salary deals and the 2nd round pick to fill out the roster. There are ALWAYS solid contributors to be found at the minimum.

[J-Ves]

The only question is whether or not we will make an effort to clear cap room for 2016 when Nene comes off the books (i.e. sign our free agents to 2-year deals).

I doubt either Ariza or Gortat accept anything less then four years at market value. There are enough teams with cap space to eliminate any chance of a discount or shortened deals for Wiz. I'm thinking 4yrs/44mil for Gortat and 4/26 for Ariza.

[nate33]

The only question is whether or not we will make an effort to clear cap room for 2016 when Nene comes off the books (i.e. sign our free agents to 2-year deals).

I doubt either Ariza or Gortat accept anything less then four years at market value. There are enough teams with cap space to eliminate any chance of a discount or shortened deals for Wiz. I'm thinking 4yrs/44mil for Gortat and 4/26 for Ariza.

Yeah. I agree. I think the only way we get them on 2-year deals is if we overpay: something like Gortat for 2 years $26m, and Ariza for 2 years, $18M. With contracts that big, we wouldn't have the MLE available because of luxtax implications, but it would set us up nicely for a reboot in 2016 when Nene, Gortat and Ariza all come off the books. That said, I'm not that enthused about the 2016 free agency market except for Durant. And I don't see Durant joining a team without a big man.

[payitforward]

I hope you all realize that Kevin Seraphin's improved play recently (i.e. two non-horrible, nothing-special outings) is actually motivated by the fact that Hands is always right, and Hands said that Seraphin was in great shape and was going to have a career year.

As you know, these are sensitive young men -- and I don't only mean Jordan Crawford (who was so bruised by the abuse handed out to him that the only way he could possibly compensate was by taking a lot of really difficult, low percentage shots early in the clock when he was being guarded well); I also mean Kevin Seraphin -- who after all is French, and we know how sensitive the French can be.

So when he read the threads here (which Ernie suggested he do because he enjoys them so much every time LyricalRico shows them to him), he concentrated on what Hands wrote about him -- something Jordan Crawford suggested btw.

And there you go. Right away KS actually posts almost 20 non-sucky minutes. Once again, Hands is right -- we're not surprised, not at all.

Edit: All kidding aside, it's great to see the kid playing a little better, and like everyone I hope it lasts -- that would be great for the team and for him.

[dckingsfan]

It is actually a pretty good 4 game run other than the TOs.

68 minutes
17 of 29 (.586)
7 of 9 FTs
17 Rebounds!!!!
3 Assists!!!
4 blocked shots
13 TOs

[verbal8]

So nate, that would give us:

PG: Wall, Vet Min, Maynor
SG: Beal, Webster, Rice
SF: Ariza, Porter, Vet Min
PF: Nene, Booker, Vet Min
C: Gortat, Vet Min, Vet Min

Correct?

I think even with keeping Ariza/Gortat and Booker, the Wizards should be under the luxury tax, so the full MLE can be used on one player or split among multiple.

[dckingsfan]

Thanks Verbal...

And now the hunt for the FA - the anti Maynor if you like.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

So nate, that would give us:

PG: Wall, Vet Min, Maynor
SG: Beal, Webster, Rice
SF: Ariza, Porter, Vet Min
PF: Nene, Booker, Vet Min
C: Gortat, Vet Min, Vet Min

Correct?

Yes. We will also have the MLE at our disposal, but the luxtax is a factor. Whether or not we use the MLE would depend on the cost and structure of the Ariza and Gortat contracts. Assuming Gortat at $10M a year, Ariza at $7M a year and Booker at the QO, our payroll for the team you have above is $66M. It looks like there will be some wiggle room for Seraphin or an MLE type deal.

Pretty dang depressing. Painted ourselves into a corner. Thanks EG.

This is why I would consider Otto deals for higher upside young players like Len.

[hands11]

Any word on Kevin S and the MRI ?

What the hell is going on with the knee ?

[Dat2U]

Seraphin has the worst defensive rebounding rate of any C currently in the NBA. #kslife

[Hidden Eye]

Seraphins new name should be Butterfingers since he can't keep the ball in his hands for more than 3 seconds.

[dckingsfan]

Watching Seraphin shoot (he really has developed a sweet stroke) - I don't understand why he wouldn't be able to shoot the 3 point shot effectively.

My guess is he could be a stretch 4 (actually a good inside outside 4) if given the chance. He would need to work on his picks but a pick and pop at the 3 point line might work for him.

It wouldn't solve the defensive/rebounding issues but might help him to be more marketable.

[payitforward]

Watching Seraphin shoot (he really has developed a sweet stroke) - I don't understand why he wouldn't be able to shoot the 3 point shot effectively.

My guess is he could be a stretch 4 (actually a good inside outside 4) if given the chance. He would need to work on his picks but a pick and pop at the 3 point line might work for him.

It wouldn't solve the defensive/rebounding issues but might help him to be more marketable.

Good God!!! What next...?

[dckingsfan]

Watching Seraphin shoot (he really has developed a sweet stroke) - I don't understand why he wouldn't be able to shoot the 3 point shot effectively.

My guess is he could be a stretch 4 (actually a good inside outside 4) if given the chance. He would need to work on his picks but a pick and pop at the 3 point line might work for him.

It wouldn't solve the defensive/rebounding issues but might help him to be more marketable.

Good God!!! What next...?

Our own stretch 4

[tontoz]

Lately he has been trying to take it to the basket more than he has in the past. Hopefully it continues.