Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - 02/06/13)

[jivelikenice]

Fish...I wouldn't hold up a deal over marginal parts, but I also won't just toss in anyone and everyone for the sake of it. You mentioned Crawford, who I'm not a big fan of, but in an weaker draft he's worth a mid first round pick this summer. You might also be able to package him with some of these other marginal players for somebody else's underacheiver (i.e. Derrick Wlliams type). You can't just throw away your assets, especially when the return is a talented, but questionable player....

[miller31time]

Flame away but I think there is increasingly more and more sense in acquiring Dwight Howard.

In short, the Lakers need chemistry in the worst way and may lose out completely on Dwight if he bolts in free agency (which is looking more likely with each loss). A player like Nene, who is locked into a multi-year deal may look very appealing to them.

For Washington, we're actually looking like a respectable NBA team who is a few pieces (and namely, a superstar) away from being competitive with the league's elite. If a trade for Dwight ever went down, I could envision him thinking Washington (being a huge market and an up-and-coming team) would be a nice place to sign an extension. Sort of the anti-LA -- a place where expectations aren't very high; a place where he could play his game; a place where a turnaround would be front-page news and invigorate basketball in D.C again.

I think the play here is that we ship Nene, Vesely and our 2013 1st (unprotected) for Dwight.

Wall/Price
Beal/Crawford
Webster/Singleton
Okafor/Booker
Howard/Seraphin

Yeah, the roster isn't perfectly balanced for the remainder of this season as Okafor and Howard directly conflict. The hope is that, with Dwight on-board, we could make a move to acquire a floor-spacing power forward.

The downside is obvious - Dwight bolts and we're down a lotto pick and Nene (the Nene part some may not consider a big loss depending on how you view his ability to stay healthy and his contract situation). But if presented with the offer, I'd definitely have to give it serious thought.

Is any of this likely? No, but I can see why each team would take this chance.

A better trade for the Wizards would be Okafor, Ariza, Seraphin and our unprotected 1st rounder for Howard but I can't really see Los Angeles having much interest in this. It's an offer that can probably be beaten by a handful of teams.

Wall/Price
Beal/Crawford
Webster/Singleton
Nene/Booker
Howard/(NBDL call-up?)

[DaRealHibachi]

Been thinking about this for a while, especially since all 3 have been playing (somewhat) better lately. While I haven't checked the stats, I think it's safe to say that all 3 have a (positive) effect on different parts of our team;

Nene, offense and passing
Okafor, rebounding and post-defense
Ariza, perimeter defense (meh, maybe I wouldn't mind him leaving that much)

So yeah, back to them leaving; Who are we going to get that can "replace" these guys? They have size, length, strength, high BBIQ and most importantly, experience.. I don't believe the draft has anyone at their level on offense/defense/rebounding at our draft slot (+/- 7th pick). Trading might not be possible, since we have nothing trade-worthy (expect our future, which ofcourse, we need).

I would hate to watch this team next year if we start Wall/Beal/Webster(?)/?/? and being a non-playoff yet again, and no, I don't consider Seraphin, Singleton and Vesely as parts of our future team.

I'm not necessarily advocating for keeping them at their current salary, but what do you think of resigning/keeping them until we get better players, instead of fielding yet another talent-lacking team?

Discuss!

[Knighthonor]

get replacements in the draft. they wont be around for long.

[popper]

Been thinking about this for a while, especially since all 3 have been playing (somewhat) better lately. While I haven't checked the stats, I think it's safe to say that all 3 have a (positive) effect on different parts of our team;

Nene, offense and passing
Okafor, rebounding and post-defense
Ariza, perimeter defense (meh, maybe I wouldn't mind him leaving that much)

So yeah, back to them leaving; Who are we going to get that can "replace" these guys? They have size, length, strength, high BBIQ and most importantly, experience.. I don't believe the draft has anyone at their level on offense/defense/rebounding at our draft slot (+/- 7th pick). Trading might not be possible, since we have nothing trade-worthy (expect our future, which ofcourse, we need).

I would hate to watch this team next year if we start Wall/Beal/Webster(?)/?/? and being a non-playoff yet again, and no, I don't consider Seraphin, Singleton and Vesely as parts of our future team.

I agree ...... Replacing them through the draft will be near impossible though unless we trade at least one for an expiring we will not have any cap space for a free agent. Best case scenario we move Ariza for the type of player we would have signed in free agency anyway. We have a conundrum.

I'm not necessarily advocating for keeping them at their current salary, but what do you think of resigning/keeping them until we get better players, instead of fielding yet another talent-lacking team?

Discuss!

[Zonkerbl]

Really liking Okafor's game right now. Overpaid but really helping us out. Ariza too, although to a much lesser extent.

If we trade Okariza we would need a starting center in return. Ariza can be replaced in the draft, Oke not so much.

[nate33]

It's worth consideration, miller31time, but it's not really something we can discuss in a meaningful way given what we know. The trade all boils down to whether or not we think there's a realistic chance that Howard chooses to stay in DC. We can't do the trade unless we've gotten some kind of commitment from Howard that he would resign.

Certainly, in the abstract, I'd be all over a trade of Nene + Vesely + unprotected 1st for Howard. That's a no brainer.

[fishercob]

this really belongs in the trade thread...

[FAH1223]

Howard would bolt and go to Atlanta or Dallas.

[Nivek]

The ONLY way the Wizards should consider swapping their lotto pick this year for Howard is if they have his signature on a contract extension. It would be insane to give up that pick for anything less than a guarantee that he stays.

Also, it's worth mentioning that Howard isn't quite the same player as he was before the back injury. He's still good, but not the force he was a couple years ago. I'd still make that trade -- I'd just do it with eyes open knowing he might not be the same guy he once was.

[Dat2U]

Honestly I think Dwight looks terrible this year for the most part.

The back injury really has taken its toll from everything I've seen. He looks almost a little mummified out there.

He's doesn't look any where close to a game changer on defense anymore.

He's a huge risk going forward.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I don't like Howard. I would rather see them get Cousins. DeMarcus is the better player right now. He hits 78% of his FTs. Howard loses games at the line. DeMarcus has not had back surgery. He's younger and still improving.

In January, Cousins is averaging 21.9 points, 12.6 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.5 steals and is shooting .505 FG%.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lits/2013/

Dwight Howard, as Nivek mentioned, might not be the same guy he once was. We already have someone like that on the roster.

[Nivek]

CCJ: Cousins better than Howard is a bridge too far for me. Dwight ain't what he was, but he's still more productive than Cousins per minute. In PPA, I have Howard rated at a 145; Cousins at 133 for the season. Dwight is a HORRIBLE FT shooter, but Cousins is a horrible FG shooter. Both guys turn the ball over way too much. Overall, Howard is more efficient offensively (ortg of 106 to Cousins' 102).

As good as Cousins is on the boards, Howard -- even down a rebound per 36 minutes this season -- is still a bit better on the boards. Cousins gets more assists and steals; Howard more blocks. Cousins fouls more. On balance, if you're picking a guy for right now, Howard is the more productive guy -- especially when you factor in defense. Howard isn't what he was on defense, but he's still a more active and effective defender than Cousins.

All that said, Cousins may be the better guy for the Wizards since he's still just 22 years old. He needs to make some changes to how he plays -- fewer turnovers, fewer long 2pt attempts -- but IF he made those changes, he could well be better/more productive than Howard. He's not there yet, though.

[nate33]

Also, it's worth mentioning that Howard isn't quite the same player as he was before the back injury. He's still good, but not the force he was a couple years ago. I'd still make that trade -- I'd just do it with eyes open knowing he might not be the same guy he once was.

I just checked his numbers for the first time in a long time and was pleased to note that he really wasn't that far off from his peak. He is scoring 2 fewer points per 36 one one fewer shot attempt - probably the Kobe Effect. His TS% is about the same. His FTA rate is about the same. Offensively, it looks like the differences can be explained by his role in LA coupled with their general lack of floor spacing.

His blocked shot percentage is actually up substantially. The only real cause for concern is a significant decline in DRB% from 33.1% to 26.4%. Not sure if that can be explained by his teammates or LA's system

I think it might be the right time to buy low on Howard. I wouldn't be surprised if he returned to his Orlando peak once he was on a team with the right pieces around him. We would definitely need to acquire a stretch 4 though.

Of course, all of this is moot unless Howard agrees to an extension. There's no way I give up a pick without his signature.

[Nivek]

In PPA, the drop shows up a bit more strongly. He was 180ish last season; about 140-150 so far this season. Some of that is the defensive drop-off, which isn't huge but it's there. I agree that it's a risk worth taking. Even in a down year, he's still very productive -- among players with at least 500 minutes this season, he's 40th in PPA.

But we agree -- no way in hell I'd trade for him without a signature on an extension.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

CCJ: Cousins better than Howard is a bridge too far for me. Dwight ain't what he was, but he's still more productive than Cousins per minute. In PPA, I have Howard rated at a 145; Cousins at 133 for the season. Dwight is a HORRIBLE FT shooter, but Cousins is a horrible FG shooter. Both guys turn the ball over way too much. Overall, Howard is more efficient offensively (ortg of 106 to Cousins' 102).

As good as Cousins is on the boards, Howard -- even down a rebound per 36 minutes this season -- is still a bit better on the boards. Cousins gets more assists and steals; Howard more blocks. Cousins fouls more. On balance, if you're picking a guy for right now, Howard is the more productive guy -- especially when you factor in defense. Howard isn't what he was on defense, but he's still a more active and effective defender than Cousins.

All that said, Cousins may be the better guy for the Wizards since he's still just 22 years old. He needs to make some changes to how he plays -- fewer turnovers, fewer long 2pt attempts -- but IF he made those changes, he could well be better/more productive than Howard. He's not there yet, though.

I agree with all of this and add that Cousins' connection with Wall would be the primary reason to acquire him instead of Howard. The chemistry is already great between Wall and Cousins.

That said, I still would rather wait right now and see how players do this season than to make a trade for Cousins. Chemistry is terrific and the Wizards are 5-2 their last seven games. I doubt the Kings would trade young for old, so we won't get Cousins for Nene or Okafor. Washington would have to send picks along with Seraphin and/or Vesely. I think it is too much to risk the chemistry of the team and to include picks for DeMarcus.

[tontoz]

In PPA, the drop shows up a bit more strongly. He was 180ish last season; about 140-150 so far this season. Some of that is the defensive drop-off, which isn't huge but it's there. I agree that it's a risk worth taking. Even in a down year, he's still very productive -- among players with at least 500 minutes this season, he's 40th in PPA.

But we agree -- no way in hell I'd trade for him without a signature on an extension.

I don't know. Trading for Howard would be a great way to clear cap space if he chooses not to resign. As long as they don't give up Wall/Beal/1st rounder what would be the harm?

[Nivek]

Yep, that's what I meant, tontoz. Mentioned it in my previous post. I'd give up whatever for Howard that didn't involve Wall, Beal or a 1st, even without an extension. Worth a shot. To give up that 1st, I'd need a signed extension.

[Dat2U]

Nene, Seraphin & Ariza for Howard & Sacre?

I'd even throw in JCraw if they want, lol.

If Howard re-signs its a risk, but your still getting arguably the best center in the game.

If Howard bolts, oh well.... you've just cleared a ton of cap room. Potentially a ridiculous amount of cap room if you follow up the Howard move by dealing Okafor for an expiring.

[miller31time]

Nene, Seraphin & Ariza for Howard & Sacre?

I'd even throw in JCraw if they want, lol.

If Howard re-signs its a risk, but your still getting arguably the best center in the game.

If Howard bolts, oh well.... you've just cleared a ton of cap room. Potentially a ridiculous amount of cap room if you follow up the Howard move by dealing Okafor for an expiring.

If that's the deal, then we can almost certainly throw in our 2014 unprotected 1st rounder on the assumption that we'd have a good team by 2014, whether Howard stays (and we build a potential dynasty) or leaves (and we use the capspace to build a competitive team).