Kool-Aid Drinking, Season Turnaround Thread

dobrojim · Post #281 » by **dobrojim** » Thu Mar 21, 2013 6:56 pm

they ended up 7-6 in the 13 mostly winnable games that I talked about a few weeks ago.
Disappointing but not horrible. Still lots of work to be done.

TGW · Post #282 » by **TGW** » Mon Mar 25, 2013 6:01 pm

The Wizards at #17? Wow...that's hella generous.

http://espn.go.com/nba/powerrankings

Post #283 » by **nate33** » Mon Mar 25, 2013 6:43 pm

TGW wrote:The Wizards at #17? Wow...that's hella generous.

http://espn.go.com/nba/powerrankings

Not really. On/off numbers say that they're the 10th best team in the league when Wall is on the floor.

TGW · Post #284 » by **TGW** » Mon Mar 25, 2013 10:41 pm

nate33 wrote:
TGW wrote:The Wizards at #17? Wow...that's hella generous.

http://espn.go.com/nba/powerrankings

Not really. On/off numbers say that they're the 10th best team in the league when Wall is on the floor.

Nate—until this team is over .500, they aren't #17 in anything.

Post #285 » by **nate33** » Mon Mar 25, 2013 10:48 pm

TGW wrote:
nate33 wrote:
TGW wrote:The Wizards at #17? Wow...that's hella generous.

http://espn.go.com/nba/powerrankings

Not really. On/off numbers say that they're the 10th best team in the league when Wall is on the floor.

Nate—until this team is over .500, they aren't #17 in anything.

That's fine. But as I understand the power rankings, it's ESPN's effort to rank the teams as they are playing right now. And right now, the Wizards are pretty good. There is nothing generous about ranking them #17. It's arguably an underestimation of their current ability.

hands11 · Post #286 » by **hands11** » Tue Mar 26, 2013 1:28 am

wow 14-7 with Wall, Beal and Nene healthy.

Thats what Buck just said...

Oh, and we just beat Mem at home without Nene, Beal, Trevor A, Webster or Price..

Oh, and Wall just cranked up 47 pts, 7 rebounds, 8 assists, 1 steal, 1 block without any of them on the court.

2 Turnovers in 43 minutes

And the icing DAGGER 3 :lol:

JOHN WOW

hands11 · Post #287 » by **hands11** » Wed Mar 27, 2013 11:27 pm

after and before jan 12th

21-16 5-28

PPG 96.6 vs 89.2
diff +3.0 vs -8.0
FG pct 46.2 vs 40.8

hands11 · Post #288 » by **hands11** » Sat Apr 20, 2013 2:08 pm

hands11 wrote:by hands11 on Sun Mar 17, 2013 12:51 pm

Is it time to take a sip of the Kook-Aid again ?

Could MIK go on a historic tank ? They are 32-32 on a 0-3 run with loses to Dallas, @ Wiz, and Miami.
They are .500% at home and .500% on the road.

They play ORL today at home at 1PM. A nice L today starts the Mega Tank.

http://espn.go.com/nba/team/schedule/_/ ... ukee-bucks

32-32 Currently
5-13 Remaining games
37-45 Season end

23-42 Wizards
14-3 Remaining games
37-45 Season end ( Wiz win head to head tie breaker )

It would be a miracle but thats why you drink some Kook-Aid first.

Either way, it has been a dramatic season turnaround. They made good progress. They installed a great defense. Beal arrived. Wall is arriving. They found Temple and Webster. The moved on from Dray and settled the what to do with Crawford question. They are installing a pass first offense. Its been productive.

Well MIL ended up 38-44 so they did go on another one of their late season folds.

They ended up going 6-12 instead of the 5-13 I posted. And MIK were a .500 team at the time.

Anyway. It was an way more entertaining season this year for Wizards fans. They could have gotten to the playoffs if a few things played out differently, but that time will come and when it does, it should be sustainable if they keep building this out. Objectively, many here would say you don't want to get to good to fast when you are rebuilding.

They got a lot accomplished this year. Not least of which is that I feel they have changed their reputation. I think with the D they played and with the wins over playoff teams and with the emergence of Wall and Beal, they can now attract better FA agents. And they tanked well down the stretch so they get another lottery asset. Personally, for me, I think they needed to get Wall and Beal playoff experience as early in their careers as possible, but Beal was to injured this year. I'll take another lottery pick. In the long run, that's probably better for them.

hands11 · Post #289 » by **hands11** » Sun Jun 16, 2013 8:52 pm

Bumped to remind people of how good this team was once they got their pieces together.

Wall and Beal were full on beasts.

Wall even in a shorten year was #2 in FTA for PG and #8 for all players. And he finished the year at #4 pace for all players. His turnovers went way way down. Wall ends up the year on pace to be in CP3, Rondo, Parker territory as a PG. Check mark next to franchise player and he is the PG.

Beal was insanely good once he found his 3 ball. And he defends. And rebounds. Ended the season averaging 5 a game. And he grown an inch I think. He is going to come back strong physically and with better handles. Projects for him were Allen/Wade and he is still on course for that. I'm putting him down as a top 5-8 SG in only his 2nd year.

Go back and read a few pages to remember what happened.

Wizards were really good with Wall, Beal and Nene healthy and insanely good with all three starting. And they beat the best in the league. Even with some injured. Where they were bad was against some bad teams, I think in part because they need to get longer and more athletic up front. And they need Nene healthy.

That easy to pull off in this draft by just adding Jackie Carmichael or Iverson or both.

Keep this stuff in mind when looking at that first pick.

hands11 · Post #290 » by **hands11** » Sat Nov 16, 2013 5:34 am

Here we go. Pulling out the glasses early this year.

Wizards about to dust off a can of whoop ass.

The worst of the schedule is behind them.

Trevor A and AH are out for next game which means more Temple, Glen and Ves. No AH, is going to help the defense and no Trevor A makes starting Webster easy on Randy because he has no choice.

Wall has started to run bounce pass pick and rolls, as have a few other players. I call that the Gortat effect. If Wall has added that to his game, that alone might make the Gortat trade worth it.

http://www.monumentalnetwork.com/videos ... n-11-15-13

Randy also says he is going to pull one of Nene or Gortat earlier in the first so they have one of them to run with the back up players. I expect Ves to come in maybe around the 6 or 7 min mark. Personally, I think it might even be better if he just brought Nene off the bench all together. That would make the rotations work a lot smoother.

EDIT UPDATE.

Well Nene stated. Got 2 fouls quick so yeah, he came out early. Wiz then went on a 17-5 run

The lost. At home. To CLE. No Kool-aid for you.

Come back. ONE YEAR.

hands11 · Post #291 » by **hands11** » Sun Dec 1, 2013 6:32 pm

So its looks like they did get it going after a rough start that had some talking early tank.

They are on a 6-2 run. It was a softer schedule but they did beat MN and ATL at home and got two road wins against CLE and MIL. Road wins are road wins. I'll take them against any team.

Things feel a lot different then they did just 8 games ago when they were 2-7. Now they are 8-9 with Orlando up next for a home game followed by MIL and Denver at home as well. With some luck, they could easily get to 11-9 before heading out to ATL for a meaningful game to establish who is the better team for 3rd in the East.

Currently challenging ATL for 2nd in the division. That's now their measuring stick.
Currently fighting ATL also for 3rd best in the conference.

In a weak conference, its looking more and more like they could actually get out of the first round this year. That would do a ton for the younger players development.

Having just beat ATL at home they play again on the road on Fri, Dec 13 after 3 days of rest so hopefully they are healed up. That will be their 4th games in two weeks so they should get a chance to rest up and if they can do that, they can get back to more limited minutes for more starters so they can sustain this throughout the season. More bodies. More options. More rested players.

What do I see in the tea leaves right now? Something tells me Kevins S is going to get moved along with Booker for some front court help. Still to many development players for a team looking to make some playoff noise.

Ves, Kevin, Singleton, Booker, Glen, and Otto. That's to much so I can see them trading Kevin, Booker and maybe Glen for more established pieces. They may not get much but it would be an addition by subtraction type move.

That leaves then Ves, Otto and Singleton to develop. That seems more manageable to me. Then focus on who to resign or trade from a number of productive pieces and Otto. Pick up some FAs. Evaluate a 2nd round target and come back in 2015 with another first round draft pick.

The team has been developing over the last 2-3 years without the wins to show for it. Now, hopefully they are turning the corner and taking the next step. Lots to still get worked out, but at least you can start to see how it could work. I call this about 30% into stage 3. Lots of room to grow still.

Higga · Post #292 » by **Higga** » Mon Dec 2, 2013 4:00 pm

We could easily be the 3 seed. Nobody else in the East besides the two big dogs Indiana and Miami are any good.

Gotta beef up the bench though. The starting 5 is real good, but we don't get enough out of the reserves.

Post #293 » by **Zonkerbl** » Mon Dec 2, 2013 5:47 pm

Can't be the 3rd seed, best we can do is fourth, with Miami in our division. Right? Although why is Toronto fourth?

[edit: "The team that has the best record in each of the three divisions in each conference is declared division champion. The three division champions, and another team in the conference with the best record, are seeded one through four by their records. "

So whoever has the best record after Indiana and Miami get the third seed. The next best record after that gets the fifth seed, but against whoever comes out of Toronto's division so that's not so bad.]

verbal8 · Post #294 » by **verbal8** » Mon Dec 2, 2013 5:52 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:Can't be the 3rd seed, best we can do is fourth, with Miami in our division. Right? Although why is Toronto fourth?

[edit: "The team that has the best record in each of the three divisions in each conference is declared division champion. The three division champions, and another team in the conference with the best record, are seeded one through four by their records. "

So whoever has the best record after Indiana and Miami get the third seed. The next best record after that gets the fifth seed, but against whoever comes out of Toronto's division so that's not so bad.]

With a 3rd or 5th seed(or 4th if the Atlantic improves) the Wizards would likely have HC and a reasonable chance of getting to the 2nd round.

dobrojim · Post #295 » by **dobrojim** » Mon Dec 2, 2013 6:40 pm

so basically, the 3 div winners automatically get HC advantage for 1 round.
The rest of the seeding is based solely on wins.

Correct?

verbal8 · Post #296 » by **verbal8** » Mon Dec 2, 2013 7:14 pm

dobrojim wrote:so basically, the 3 div winners automatically get HC advantage for 1 round.
The rest of the seeding is based solely on wins.

Correct?

No, it is a bit strange. Divsion winners just get a top 4 seed, but if their opponent has a better record the opponent gets the HC. So if Toronto finishes at 38-44, but wins their division they get the 4th seed. If the Wizards are 43-39 and the the 5th seed the Wizards have HC advantage.

If there was a division that had the top 3 teams in the conference, the 3rd team would get bumped down to the 5th seed. However they would be playing the worst division winner and would have HC advantage.

fishercob · Post #297 » by **fishercob** » Mon Dec 2, 2013 7:19 pm

The upshot is that if things go well, the Wizards can avoid Miami and Indiana in the first round of the playoffs, and potentially host a series. Go team!

verbal8 · Post #298 » by **verbal8** » Mon Dec 2, 2013 7:32 pm

fishercob wrote:The upshot is that if things go well, the Wizards can avoid Miami and Indiana in the first round of the playoffs, and potentially host a series. Go team!

Short of those 2 teams there really isn't a scary play-off match-up in the East. It would be an uphill battle to take a series against a team like Atlanta on the road, but I wouldn't count the Wizards out if they can get themselves in that position.

fishercob · Post #299 » by **fishercob** » Mon Dec 2, 2013 7:36 pm

verbal8 wrote:
fishercob wrote:The upshot is that if things go well, the Wizards can avoid Miami and Indiana in the first round of the playoffs, and potentially host a series. Go team!

Short of those 2 teams there really isn't a scary play-off match-up in the East. It would be an uphill battle to take a series against a team like Atlanta on the road, but I wouldn't count the Wizards out if they can get themselves in that position.

We need to add depth because our starters can't continue to carry this type of minute load.

Seemingly, in time, we'll get a bit of a boost from Harrington's return and from the addition of Porter. Having Beal back will help too. We really need to add a rotation-quality big. Are there any playing in China that we can add after their season? If not, our best/only choice may be to trade expirings for someone like Bass/Glen Davis/Frye, etc who have an additional year of salary at a chunky cost.

Post #300 » by **nate33** » Mon Dec 2, 2013 7:41 pm

verbal8 wrote:
dobrojim wrote:so basically, the 3 div winners automatically get HC advantage for 1 round.
The rest of the seeding is based solely on wins.

Correct?

No, it is a bit strange. Divsion winners just get a top 4 seed, but if their opponent has a better record the opponent gets the HC. So if Toronto finishes at 38-44, but wins their division they get the 4th seed. If the Wizards are 43-39 and the the 5th seed the Wizards have HC advantage.

If there was a division that had the top 3 teams in the conference, the 3rd team would get bumped down to the 5th seed. However they would be playing the worst division winner and would have HC advantage.

So effectively, we will have HCA if we have one of the top 4 records in the conference. Toronto (or Brooklyn or New York) winning their division with a worse record doesn't really affect us in any significant way.