Predict the Wizards Record '13-'14 season.

[Higga]

I'm looking pretty good with my 43 prediction, but honestly this team could/should have easily won 47+ if not 50. Wittless held us back big time.

[Nivek]

Still hold?

Here are the odds of them winning their remaining games:

Code: Select all

DATE            PLACE   OPP     ODDS    W-L
03/31/14        A       CHA     48%     L
04/02/14        H       BOS     63%     W
04/04/14        A       NYK     49%     W (vs loss)
04/05/14        H       CHI     54%     L (vs. win)
04/09/14        H       CHA     58%     W
04/11/14        A       ORL     55%     W
04/12/14        H       MIL     69%     W
04/14/14        H       MIA     46%     L
04/16/14        A       BOS     53%     W



Interesting that the Wiz basically flip-flopped coin flip results against Knicks and Bulls. For the remaining 5 games, 4-1 looks about right to finish 44-38. Wins against Charlotte, Orlando, Milwaukee and Boston, and a loss to Miami.

I'm working on something right now that looks at whether the Wizards should tank for 7th so they can play Indy in the first round.

[dobrojim]

a retrospective look at whether year long or last month record is more predictive?

[Zonkerbl]

Charlotte's going to be a loss. Any time we go up against a team that truly "wants it" we get shellacked.

Miami'll be a win, probably, unless playoff seeding is still up in the air.

[Zonkerbl]

a retrospective look at whether year long or last month record is more predictive?

Doesn't have to be either/or. You can also assign progressively smaller weights to your prediction, month by month. So last month's record has the greatest weight, the month before that a smaller weight, and the first month of the season has the smallest weight.

[jivelikenice]

Indy does look like the best matchup for us. I really think we could push them to 6 games. However, falling behind Charlotte would mean losing what amounts to a real test in what has been a season of low benchmarks. I'd feel slightly better about what we have here if they showed the mental makeup to win what amount to as much of a playoff type of matchup as they've had in recent memory. If they fall flat on their faces and stumble into what looks like a decent matchup now, thats fine...but its the result of a failure.

[jivelikenice]

I'm looking pretty good with my 43 prediction, but honestly this team could/should have easily won 47+ if not 50. Wittless held us back big time.

Before the season 43 wins would be looked solid. However expextations should have been adjusted based on how the conference evolved as the season wore on. Additionally while our players and some on the national stage kept saying we could be the 3rd seed, we've instead stayed mediocre and have fallen behind teams that we really shouldn't be behind.

[hands11]

I'm looking pretty good with my 43 prediction, but honestly this team could/should have easily won 47+ if not 50. Wittless held us back big time.

I simply didn't factor in enough suckatude for Randy.

Who would have imagined a HC that doesn't know when to call a time out and couldn't figure it out over the course of an entire season?

Anyone got a reasonable count on the amount of games lost to Randy's lack of game time coaching skills. Its got to be 8-10 games.

[hands11]

Still hold?

Here are the odds of them winning their remaining games:

Code: Select all

DATE            PLACE   OPP     ODDS    W-L
03/31/14        A       CHA     48%     L
04/02/14        H       BOS     63%     W
04/04/14        A       NYK     49%     W (vs loss)
04/05/14        H       CHI     54%     L (vs. win)
04/09/14        H       CHA     58%     W
04/11/14        A       ORL     55%     W
04/12/14        H       MIL     69%     W
04/14/14        H       MIA     46%     L
04/16/14        A       BOS     53%     W



Interesting that the Wiz basically flip-flopped coin flip results against Knicks and Bulls. For the remaining 5 games, 4-1 looks about right to finish 44-38. Wins against Charlotte, Orlando, Milwaukee and Boston, and a loss to Miami.

I'm working on something right now that looks at whether the Wizards should tank for 7th so they can play Indy in the first round.

Would that involve not bringing Nene back for next game ?

[dckingsfan]

I'm looking pretty good with my 43 prediction, but honestly this team could/should have easily won 47+ if not 50. Wittless held us back big time.

Higga, we started the season with Maynor as the backup PG, had our first round pick injured at the beginning of the season and had a FC bench of Vesely, Booker and Seraphin. Wall is going to play a record 80+ games for the first time in his career. And then (as should be expected) lost Nene for an extended period. You don't find it a bit amazing that they got to .500?

[montestewart]

I'm looking pretty good with my 43 prediction, but honestly this team could/should have easily won 47+ if not 50. Wittless held us back big time.

I simply didn't factor in enough suckatude for Randy.

Who would have imagined a HC that doesn't know when to call a time out and couldn't figure it out over the course of an entire season?

Anyone got a reasonable count on the amount of games lost to Randy's lack of game time coaching skills. Its got to be 8-10 games.

Hell yeah! Put Phil Jackson at the helm and this team's in the conference finals. Phil Johnson too.

[hands11]

I'm looking pretty good with my 43 prediction, but honestly this team could/should have easily won 47+ if not 50. Wittless held us back big time.

Higga, we started the season with Maynor as the backup PG, had our first round pick injured at the beginning of the season and had a FC bench of Vesely, Booker and Seraphin. Wall is going to play a record 80+ games for the first time in his career. And then (as should be expected) lost Nene for an extended period. You don't find it a bit amazing that they got to .500?

Yet even with all of that, there were at least 8-10 post games that clearly identified Randy making obvious blunders that could have won games due to time outs, his offense, his subs patterns and his inability to have his team ready in the first quarter or 3 quarter including adjustments. I can't name them game by game right now but I recall it being obvious stuff after at least that many games.

Stuff like we just saw the other game when he didn't have Nene in for the last defensive stand. I don't want to hear some BS about min restriction. It would have been 15 more seconds of which he would be standing under the basket for 10 of it hardly moving. Instead, CHA got an easy layup by A Jefferson in no time at all. That's one L right there. Should have never gone to OT. And there were other just as stupid.

In the CHI game, who didn't know Tibbs would go right at Booker to start the game and that you needed to focus on stopping D.J. Augustin, except Randy. Should have started KS with Nene out and put Temple in to cover D.J. Augustin. You know, Temple in.. just like when they won the previous two games against CHI. They might have lost anyway, but Randy never gave them a chance.

[hands11]

As for Maynor. He wasn't the cause of the Ls that I can identify. Look over the game box scores, his minutes and what else was going on in those games. See how many Ls you would contribute to Maynor. To start the year we lost to MIA, OKC, SA and DAL. Well that's no surprise. The first game DET, Wall and Beal shot us out of the game. Game two L to PHL, Nene was out with a calve pull and Beal went 4-18. Maynor was 2-4 and 4 assists in 14 min, so that one wasn't on him. He played 8 mins in a loss to TOR but we know they give the WIZ fits. Beal went 7-21 that game. They got blown out by IND 73-93 and he played 9 mins but we had no Nene or Beal that game. Then his mins trailed off to 4 or less and a bunch of DNPs and then he was gone.

Not clear that I can see one game I would call a lose due to Fart being on the team.

But I clearly recall them struggling because of Randy's terrible rotations. His inability to understand how to use the utility players off the bench by mixing them in with the starters vs turning to a line ups of utility players. This was discussed at length. Then he finally figured out how to pull a few starters early and weave the utility players and we started winning more games and beat some good teams.

Same players. He just used them differently.

[dckingsfan]

To think that this is a 50 win team as assembled is usreasonable and fanantic - Nice to be a Wiz fan...

As many as we might coulda shoulda, there were others we shouldn't have won...

[hands11]

To think that this is a 50 win team as assembled is usreasonable and fanantic - Nice to be a Wiz fan...

Are you of the opinion that coaching doesn't matter much if at all ?

Randy or Pops or Tibs. Wouldn't matter. They would have the exact some record ?

[dckingsfan]

To think that this is a 50 win team as assembled is usreasonable and fanantic - Nice to be a Wiz fan...

Are you of the opinion that coaching doesn't matter much if at all ?

Randy or Pops or Tibs. Wouldn't matter. They would have the exact some record ?

This was a prediction thread... our GM is EG - we don't have Tibs or Pop. As assembled, coaching staff and players... we are lucky to be a 44 win team.

[hands11]

To think that this is a 50 win team as assembled is usreasonable and fanantic - Nice to be a Wiz fan...

Are you of the opinion that coaching doesn't matter much if at all ?

Randy or Pops or Tibs. Wouldn't matter. They would have the exact some record ?

This was a prediction thread... our GM is EG - we don't have Tibs or Pop. As assembled, coaching staff and players... we are lucky to be a 44 win team.

You answered neither question.

Are you of the opinion that coaching doesn't matter much if at all ?

Randy or Pops or Tibs. Wouldn't matter. They would have the exact some record ?

I'll even add another. If your answer is yes they do matter and no they wouldn't have the same record, then how many wins would either of those coaches have added ?

[JWizmentality]

I stand by my 50 wins. My prediction did not take into account Eric Maynor, which should really be classified as an Act of God.

[dckingsfan]

I stand by my 50 wins. My prediction did not take into account Eric Maynor, which should really be classified as an Act of God.

Eric - Act of God - Maynor

[dckingsfan]

Are you of the opinion that coaching doesn't matter much if at all ?

Randy or Pops or Tibs. Wouldn't matter. They would have the exact some record ?

This was a prediction thread... our GM is EG - we don't have Tibs or Pop. As assembled, coaching staff and players... we are lucky to be a 44 win team.

You answered neither question.

Are you of the opinion that coaching doesn't matter much if at all ?

Randy or Pops or Tibs. Wouldn't matter. They would have the exact some record ?

I'll even add another. If your answer is yes they do matter and no they wouldn't have the same record, then how many wins would either of those coaches have added ?

The point of the thread was to predict the number of wins given this team, coaching staff and FO. If you want to take that question to the "what if we had a different FO making competent decisions thread" we can do that exercise in mental masturbation. Start a new thread...

You want to say that your prediction doesn't count because you didn't take the FO or coaching staff into affect.

This is going to be a 43 or 44 win team... congrats to the ones that got close.