Team/Player Stats Discussion

[Hypnotizer]

Beal only shooting 31% from 3 this month. He needs to start hitting for them to beat the Bulls.

Last 3 games of Beal:

-at TD Garden - 3-5;
- vs Heat - 3-5;
- vs Bucks - 2-7.
It's 8-17. Not bad (0.471), but playoffs series are different stories. Let's hope he can keep it up.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

83.3 - Seraphin

That's head-scratchingly good and makes you think - If only he'd go aggressively to the hoop more - which he's shown signs of doing the last 2 games that he played more than a minute. Dare I say, you can play him in late game situations.

This has been one of the more frustrating things that Witttman has done this season. Seraphin was playing well before his injury, but has never got back in the rotation since even while certainly being available. What irks me even more is the fact how nonchalantly he's able to insert Harrington and Gooden, but not develop I young guy who could really use some development. Seraphin ain't great defensively, but he's certainly better than those matadors. I understand making young players learn, but not having an equal meritocracy for fair play has to quite demoralizing.

[Hypnotizer]

NAME----------------------------+/- (per game)

Gortat----------------------------3.6
Ariza------------------------------2.5
Wall-------------------------------2.4
Nene------------------------------2.3
Beal-------------------------------1.5
Harrington-----------------------1.4
Rice Jr----------------------------1.2
Miller-----------------------------DEN+WAS
--------------------------------------------------------------
Webster------------------------(-0.2)
Porter---------------------------(-0.2)
Seraphin------------------------(-0.6)
Booker--------------------------(-0.8)
Temple--------------------------(-1.1)
Gooden--------------------------(-1.2)
Singleton------------------------(-2.6)

[Hypnotizer]

TEAM------FG%

1. MIA --- 50.1%
2. SAS --- 48.6%
3. DAL --- 47.4%
4. LAC --- 47.4%
5. HOU -- 47.2%
6. OKC --- 47.1%
7. MEM -- 46.4%
8. PHX --- 46.3%
9. GSW --- 46.2%
10.WAS --- 45.9%
---------------------------------------------------------
30.CHI --- 43.2%

[Hypnotizer]

TEAM------3FG%

1. SAS --- 39.7%
2. DAL --- 38.4%
3. LAL --- 38.1%
4. GSW -- 38.0%
5. WAS --- 38.0%
6. NOP --- 37.3%
7. PHX --- 37.2%
8. POR --- 37.2%
9. NYK --- 37.2%
10.TOR -- 37.2%
------------------------------------------------------------
24.CHI --- 34.8%

[Hypnotizer]

TEAM-------FT%

1. POR --- 81.5%
2. OKC --- 80.6%
3. DAL --- 79.5%
4. SAS --- 78.5%
5. TOR --- 78.2%
6. ATL --- 78.1%
7. IND --- 77.9%
8. CHI --- 77.9%
9. MIN --- 77.8%
10.BOS --- 77.7%
---------------------------------------
25.WAS --- 73.1%

[Hypnotizer]

TEAM------+/-

1. SAS --- 633
2. LAC --- 572
3. OKC --- 520
4. GSW -- 394
5. MIA --- 390
6. HOU --- 374
7. IND ---- 361
8. POR --- 327
9. TOR --- 266
10.MIN --- 219
----------------------------------
13.CHI --- 152
----------------------------------
15.WAS --- 104

[Zonkerbl]

Hey Kev!

Have you ever calculated Rose's PPA the year he was an MVP?

While you're at it, what are Paul, Westbrook, Curry, and Parker's PPA?

[Hypnotizer]

Top 5 fines per player (total amount), 2013-2014:

1. JR Smith ---- $331,955
2. DM Cousins - $161,400
3. A. Bogut ---- $143,272
4. Nene -------- $132,182
5. A. Bynum --- $111,364

[Nivek]

Hey Kev!

Have you ever calculated Rose's PPA the year he was an MVP?

Yep -- he rated a 179. In other words, PPA says he should not have been within shouting distance of MVP that season. The PPA MVP that season was Lebron (219), barely ahead of Chris Paul (218), Kevin Love (217) and Dwight Howard (216).

While you're at it, what are Paul, Westbrook, Curry, and Parker's PPA?

For this season (in PPA, 100 = average and higher is better):

- Chris Paul -- 243
- Westbrook -- 182
- Curry -- 207
- Parker -- 141
- Wall -- 139

This was the weakest season for Parker since 2009-10.

[Hypnotizer]

Top 5 fined teams in 2013-2014 (Apr 29th):

1. NYK - $419,955
2. SAC - $265,400
3. GSW - $244,272
4. MIL - $230,545
5. MEM - $224,982.


Top 5 'fair play' teams:

1. UTA - $8,000
2. SAS - $19,000
3. NOP - $40,000
4. MIN - $41,000
5. ATL - $41,370.

[tontoz]

Thus far in the playoffs the Wizards have the fewest turnovers per game.

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/team/ ... gTurnovers

[Hypnotizer]

CHI - WAS series stats:


- FG%
(Bulls) 0.422 < (Wizards) 0.440

- 3P%
0.333 < 0.383

- FT%
0.754 > 0.703

- RPG
41.8 < 43.0

- APG
20.2 < 20.4

- TPG
13.2 < 10.4 (best team in playoffs)

- SPG
5.0 < 8.2

- BPG
4.4 < 6.6

- PPG
90.0 (last place in playoffs)< 94.6

[fishercob]

I apologize in advance for how inelegant this is going to look. I would love a tutorial in how to put together those fancy charts.

Wizards Final WS/48 -- Regular Season
Gooden: .173
Gortat: .146
Ariza: .141
Booker: .132
Miller: .132
Wall: .128
Webster: .112
Nene: .098
Vesely: .090
Beal: .076
Seraphin: .066
Harrington: .035

WIzards Final Playoffs WS/48
Ariza: .201
Beal: .151
Booker: .151
Gortat: .130
Gooden: .097
Webster: .075
Wall: .067
Nene: .049
Harrington: .048
Miller: .018

Kev, I would very much like to see the final regular and postseason PPA numbers -- and am curious as to how they correlate to the WS/48 numbers.

Some thoughts and takeaways:

(1) I understand that a 13 game playoff sample is far from definitive. If a guy had a bad cold during a week of the playoffs, his numbers could be significantly affected. Nonetheless, I suspect that the data is at least a bit informative

(2) I would expect the overall offensive production numbers in the playoffs to be well below the regular season, given that the two opponents' defenses were the top 2 in the league. But our offensive numbers are likely inflated (though somewhat less so) since Chicago and Indy ranked 28 and 23 respectively in offense)

(3) Both Ariza and Gortat (in that order) were very consistent and productive during the regular and postseasons. It is hard to envision a scenario where losing either (let alone both) doesn't set us back significantly in the short term.

(4) Bradley Beal was TWICE as productive during the playoffs as he was during the regular season? Can anything be gleaned from this? Did he make some sort of cosmic leap? Is this a sample size thing?

(5) Randy Wittman's burying of Booker may well have cost us the Indiana series. It is inexplicable and infuriating, unless there was an injury or major issue that was not made public.

(6) John Wall struggled in the playoffs; this is not news.

(7) Nene was an average player during the regular season and below that during the playoffs. We should move on from him at the first opportunity. We were 11-9 in the 20 game stretch without him down the stretch. He's a good defensive player, but enough of a net negative in the other areas to make him very, very not worth his contract. Open the floor for Wall and Gortat. Move on!

(8) All the more reason to move Nene: Drew Gooden is found money at the veteran's minimum. Even at his playoff production level.

[dckingsfan]

Fisher

Code: Select all

Name     Stat1   Stat2
Gooden   0.123   0.234


[dckingsfan]

#3 - Violent Agreement

What scares me most is that many teams need a C - and here are the C FAs:
http://hoopshype.com/free_agency/centers_2014.htm

[dckingsfan]

#7 - Agreed but... Ted/EG/Witt/Announcers love Nene & who would take him and what trash would we have to take back?

[Nivek]

I apologize in advance for how inelegant this is going to look. I would love a tutorial in how to put together those fancy charts.

Wizards Final WS/48 -- Regular Season
Gooden: .173
Gortat: .146
Ariza: .141
Booker: .132
Miller: .132
Wall: .128
Webster: .112
Nene: .098
Vesely: .090
Beal: .076
Seraphin: .066
Harrington: .035

WIzards Final Playoffs WS/48
Ariza: .201
Beal: .151
Booker: .151
Gortat: .130
Gooden: .097
Webster: .075
Wall: .067
Nene: .049
Harrington: .048
Miller: .018

Kev, I would very much like to see the final regular and postseason PPA numbers -- and am curious as to how they correlate to the WS/48 numbers.

I'll have them up on the blog sometime next week. I hope. The win share numbers are based on the individual rtg stats that Dean Oliver created. The offensive rating part is excellent; the defensive rating part has some issues.

(2) I would expect the overall offensive production numbers in the playoffs to be well below the regular season, given that the two opponents' defenses were the top 2 in the league. But our offensive numbers are likely inflated (though somewhat less so) since Chicago and Indy ranked 28 and 23 respectively in offense)

Usually, offensive efficiency drops in the playoffs. This year, ortg has actually gone up -- from 106.7 pts per 100 possessions in the regular season to 108.5 so far in the playoffs. The Wizards were good offensively against Chicago and wretched against Indy.

(4) Bradley Beal was TWICE as productive during the playoffs as he was during the regular season? Can anything be gleaned from this? Did he make some sort of cosmic leap? Is this a sample size thing?

Beal did something like this over an extended period in the 2nd half of his rookie season. Then played at a lower level most of the regular season. Last I looked at the playoff numbers, his performance was up significantly, but it wasn't double the production.

(5) Randy Wittman's burying of Booker may well have cost us the Indiana series. It is inexplicable and infuriating, unless there was an injury or major issue that was not made public.

Yep. They seem to be unaware that Booker is actually a decent player. And they seem fixated on implementing specific skill sets that they think will be beneficial. Playing Al Harrington over Booker is a decision that made zero sense.

(7) Nene was an average player during the regular season and below that during the playoffs. We should move on from him at the first opportunity. We were 11-9 in the 20 game stretch without him down the stretch. He's a good defensive player, but enough of a net negative in the other areas to make him very, very not worth his contract. Open the floor for Wall and Gortat. Move on![/quote]

Yes.

(8) All the more reason to move Nene: Drew Gooden is found money at the veteran's minimum. Even at his playoff production level.

At the minimum, sure.

[Zonkerbl]

Hey Kev!

Have you ever calculated Rose's PPA the year he was an MVP?

Yep -- he rated a 179. In other words, PPA says he should not have been within shouting distance of MVP that season. The PPA MVP that season was Lebron (219), barely ahead of Chris Paul (218), Kevin Love (217) and Dwight Howard (216).

While you're at it, what are Paul, Westbrook, Curry, and Parker's PPA?

For this season (in PPA, 100 = average and higher is better):

- Chris Paul -- 243
- Westbrook -- 182
- Curry -- 207
- Parker -- 141
- Wall -- 139

This was the weakest season for Parker since 2009-10.

Dammit, now I forgot why I asked this. So Wall right now is not, actually, that far from MVP Rose. Interesting. Well, he's as far from Rose as he is from Westbrook.

Do you feel PPA accounts for defense fairly well?

[bondom34]

Hey, just skimming this, and as an outsider as far as the Wiz go (outside of watching some games as I live in VA), really cool stuff guys. I'm into analytics, and Nivek's blog is pretty cool, gonna have some reading to do!