Team/Player Stats Discussion

[queridiculo]

They're not coming back from that deficit.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Updated numbers at the blog.

In per minute production, Anthony Davis has inched past Stephen Curry for MVP -- 279 to 278. Davis holds a wider lead in total production because he's played more minutes.

[Zonkerbl]

Updated numbers at the blog.

In per minute production, Anthony Davis has inched past Stephen Curry for MVP -- 279 to 278. Davis holds a wider lead in total production because he's played more minutes.

So... Kevin's numbers have been creeping up. Are those numbers you cite cumulative over the whole season, or the score for that particular week?

How are Kevin's PPA numbers over the last month or so?

[TheSecretWeapon]

Updated numbers at the blog.

In per minute production, Anthony Davis has inched past Stephen Curry for MVP -- 279 to 278. Davis holds a wider lead in total production because he's played more minutes.

So... Kevin's numbers have been creeping up. Are those numbers you cite cumulative over the whole season, or the score for that particular week?

How are Kevin's PPA numbers over the last month or so?

Cumulative week-by-week.

So, 7 of Seraphin's last 8 games have been net positive productions. The vacillations in performance are WILD. He posted a 305 against San Antonio, and a net zero two games later against Brooklyn. Two games after that, a 212 against Philly. His January PPA is about 80, which isn't bad...BUT the wild swings in performance. If I take out that San Antonio game, his PPA for the month drops to replacement level and his season score drops to 39. Roughly 19% of his total season production was in that one game. The equivalent single game production for Wall would carry a PPA of more than 3000.

All that said, in January, he's shooting better (60% from the floor and 85.7% from the FT line). Per minute, he's rebounding better, assisting less than earlier in the year, blocking more shots, committing more turnovers, and fouling a bit less. The team's plus/minus has oddly gotten worse with him on the floor -- they were -6.3 per 48 minutes in Oct/Nov, -3.3 with him in December, and -5.3 so far with him in January.

[nate33]

All that said, in January, he's shooting better (60% from the floor and 85.7% from the FT line). Per minute, he's rebounding better, assisting less than earlier in the year, blocking more shots, committing more turnovers, and fouling a bit less. The team's plus/minus has oddly gotten worse with him on the floor -- they were -6.3 per 48 minutes in Oct/Nov, -3.3 with him in December, and -5.3 so far with him in January.

Some of that is due to Butler coming back down to Earth. Andre Miller has been pretty horrible lately too - particularly on defense.

[tontoz]

Updated numbers at the blog.

In per minute production, Anthony Davis has inched past Stephen Curry for MVP -- 279 to 278. Davis holds a wider lead in total production because he's played more minutes.

Did your regular account get suspended?

Let me guess, you got into it with the KoMe fanboys?

Nice to see Nene trending up.

[FAH1223]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/dcsportsbog/status/571334906233683969[/tweet]

[Hypnotizer]

Code: Select all

#   Team  TS%

1.  GSW   59.0
2.  OKC   56.1
3.  SAS   56.0
4.  ATL   55.5
5.  WAS   54.5
----------------
26. CHI   51.2
27. BKN   51.2
28. PHI   50.8
29. DET   50.5
30. LAL   50.3


Dec 27

[TheSecretWeapon]

The Wizards so far this season:

Code: Select all

WINS                   
PACE    ORTG    DRTG
96.3    111.0   101.7
                       
LOSSES                 
PACE    ORTG    DRTG
100.1   97.6    111.3 

Code: Select all

MONTH     W       L       Pace    Ortg    Drtg
Oct/Nov   6       8       99.4    99.8    105.8
December  8       6       97.0    108.4   107.3


[nuposse04]

The Wizards so far this season:

Code: Select all

WINS                   
PACE    ORTG    DRTG
96.3    111.0   101.7
                       
LOSSES                 
PACE    ORTG    DRTG
100.1   97.6    111.3 

Code: Select all

MONTH     W       L       Pace    Ortg    Drtg
Oct/Nov   6       8       99.4    99.8    105.8
December  8       6       97.0    108.4   107.3


Spacing seemed more important then the pace of the offense. Wall and Beal are turnover prone guards, telling them to push the ball all the time was like throwing gasoline on the flames. Maybe they will eventually better understand how to push the ball up quickly as the season progresses. Seems like Wall has figured out mostly how to run the offense in December.

Defense still needs work though. Jared is proving to be a fine player, but our inability to gang rebound the defensive boards has to be pernicious to our DRTG, at least I think it should be.

I'm also curious how much the improved December play is due to quality of competition, or if it is too early to examine that since some teams still haven't faced one another.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Good call on turnovers. Strongest correlation with pace (by far) for the Wiz this season is turnover rate. The team has been significantly more likely to turn the ball over more often in faster-paced games. They also are slightly more likely to shoot better from the floor in slower games, and do a better job on the defensive boards. Only tradeoff might be slightly fewer trips to the FT line in slower games, but that would be more than offset by fewer turnovers and shooting better.

I might be able to come up with something on spacing tomorrow.

[tontoz]

Good call on turnovers. Strongest correlation with pace (by far) for the Wiz this season is turnover rate. The team has been significantly more likely to turn the ball over more often in faster-paced games. They also are slightly more likely to shoot better from the floor in slower games, and do a better job on the defensive boards. Only tradeoff might be slightly fewer trips to the FT line in slower games, but that would be more than offset by fewer turnovers and shooting better.

I might be able to come up with something on spacing tomorrow.

Typo on your blog.

So far this season, the data suggests that variation in efg differential accounts for about 44% of variation in scoring differential; rebounding accounts for 26%, getting to the free throw line about 18%, and rebounding about 11%.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Good call on turnovers. Strongest correlation with pace (by far) for the Wiz this season is turnover rate. The team has been significantly more likely to turn the ball over more often in faster-paced games. They also are slightly more likely to shoot better from the floor in slower games, and do a better job on the defensive boards. Only tradeoff might be slightly fewer trips to the FT line in slower games, but that would be more than offset by fewer turnovers and shooting better.

I might be able to come up with something on spacing tomorrow.

Typo on your blog.

So far this season, the data suggests that variation in efg differential accounts for about 44% of variation in scoring differential; rebounding accounts for 26%, getting to the free throw line about 18%, and rebounding about 11%.

Thanks.

I hate typos.

UPDATE: Fixed.

[Hypnotizer]

Code: Select all

Name       FT%
Humphries  92.6
Neal       86.8
Dudley     79.4
Porter     78.9
Wall       78.7
Beal       75.8
Gortat     75.6
Oubre      73.9
Sessions   73.7
Temple     68.5
Nene       55.3
Blair      45.5


More than 10 FTA total

[tontoz]

Wizards are taking 24 3s a game, 7 more than last season. They still rank only 15th in attempts. They are 5th in percentage.

[nuposse04]

Wizards are taking 24 3s a game, 7 more than last season. They still rank only 15th in attempts. They are 5th in percentage.

BF basically republished that reddit post someone linked here a while ago highlight the same issue. We are good at taking 3s, but we still don't take enough unless they are absurdly open. I think Dudley, Beal, Neal and now Oubre are probably are biggest guilty parties of this. The former three step into mid range jumpers, while Oubre drives to the rim only to be rejected by someone who has 6 inches on him, lol. Beal has increased his 3 pt rate but could do so some more, especially if he wants to be successful in improving the offense. I honestly think Dudley is guarding his percentages though. No idea why he passes up some fairly open looks. If he drops to a 40% 3pt shooter it won't be a bad thing so long as he is willing to increase his volume. That and I have no clue why he spots up from mid range sometimes. Better off having Nene start then and telling him to take 3 corner 3s a game :/

No point in having guys space the floor unless they are willing to punish teams by actually taking the shots afforded to them >.>

For all of Eddie's defensive faults, at least he knows what will make his role productive, taking open and semi open 3s.

[tontoz]

Wizards are taking 24 3s a game, 7 more than last season. They still rank only 15th in attempts. They are 5th in percentage.

BF basically republished that reddit post someone linked here a while ago highlight the same issue. We are good at taking 3s, but we still don't take enough unless they are absurdly open. I think Dudley, Beal, Neal and now Oubre are probably are biggest guilty parties of this. The former three step into mid range jumpers, while Oubre drives to the rim only to be rejected by someone who has 6 inches on him, lol. Beal has increased his 3 pt rate but could do so some more, especially if he wants to be successful in improving the offense. I honestly think Dudley is guarding his percentages though. No idea why he passes up some fairly open looks. If he drops to a 40% 3pt shooter it won't be a bad thing so long as he is willing to increase his volume. That and I have no clue why he spots up from mid range sometimes. Better off having Nene start then and telling him to take 3 corner 3s a game :/

No point in having guys space the floor unless they are willing to punish teams by actually taking the shots afforded to them >.>

For all of Eddie's defensive faults, at least he knows what will make his role productive, taking open and semi open 3s.

Last year Pierce made a ton of 3s that were nearly blocked. He wasn't going to get run off the line unless he knew he couldn't get the shot off.

I am glad to see Wall attempting more 3s. Even though he was ice cold in Nov he kept shooting them. Still takes too many long 2s early in the clock though.

[Hypnotizer]

Code: Select all

Name       +/-

Nene       1.7
Temple     1.5
Wall       0.9
Dudley     0.9
---------------
Porter    -0.6
Eddie     -0.7
Gortat    -1.2
Sessions  -1.5
Oubre     -1.5
Blair     -1.6
---------------
Humphries -3.0
Hollins   -3.6
Beal      -4.8
Neal      -4.9
---------------
Gooden    -6.0


[Hypnotizer]

Code: Select all

Name      TS%

Dudley    61.9
---------------
Eddie     59.2
Sessions  57.6
Hollins   57.1
Nene      57.1
Neal      56.8
Oubre     55.2
Gortat    55.2
---------------
Porter    53.4
Beal      53.3
Humphries 53.1
Wall      52.2
---------------
Temple    49.9
---------------
Blair     36.4
---------------
Gooden    29.8


[Hypnotizer]

Team record when starter (before game vs Portland):

Code: Select all

NAME      WINNING %

Nene      1.000
Oubre Jr   .714
Hollins    .667
Temple     .600
Dudley     .520
Wall       .487
Beal       .471
Porter     .469
Humphries  .429
Gortat     .394
Neal       .000