statistical evidence for improved contract yr play

[dobrojim]

just curious - I see all the time statements that player A only played
good in year x because it was a contract year. I'm skeptical that
this is actually the case. It's not that I don't believe it happens,
but more that I don't believe that many players try harder because
their contracts are ending.

[Nivek]

This guy found that players systematically UNDER-perform in contract years.

[dobrojim]

another instance where something that is generally accepted as fact
without question, is quite possibly wrong. I suspected as much.

[montestewart]

Thanks for the link and the question. I've wondered that too, figuring maybe some players push for stats in contract years at the expense of the overall quality of their games.

[leswizards]

I only glimpsed at the paper briefly, but if you look at it, he mentions that the bulk of the literature on the subject has confirmed that there is actually a contract year phenomenon. He just disagrees with the methodology of the previous literature.

Well, I have a huge problem with his methodology, and I don't think his paper proves what he thinks it does. My problem with his methodology is that he uses advanced statistics. Until very recently, players were not using advanced statistics to prove their worth. They were using traditional statistics to prove their worth, and the vast majority of teams were basing their contracts on those traditional statistics. The contract year phenomenon could (and does exist), and his paper would completely miss it because he uses the wrong variables.

[montestewart]

I only glimpsed at the paper briefly, but if you look at it, he mentions that the bulk of the literature on the subject has confirmed that there is actually a contract year phenomenon. He just disagrees with the methodology of the previous literature.

Well, I have a huge problem with his methodology, and I don't think his paper proves what he thinks it does. My problem with his methodology is that he uses advanced statistics. Until very recently, players were not using advanced statistics to prove their worth. They were using traditional statistics to prove their worth, and the vast majority of teams were basing their contracts on those traditional statistics. The contract year phenomenon could (and does exist), and his paper would completely miss it because he uses the wrong variables.

Haven't read it yet (hard enough reading RealGM on a phone) but I could imagine it going both ways, with some players working harder and improving their overall play along with their advanced stat measures, and others going for more glory stats and showing worse in advanced stats. I could see that being the case even before advanced stats were widely followed. Imagine Unseld constantly calling for the ball in a contract year.