Predicting the Eastern Conference Standings 2014/2015 Season

[Hidden Eye]

I'm not too big on a team to make a big leap that hasn't gotten out of the first round of the playoffs.

[hands11]

^^

Less upside in the experienced vet players. i.e. Nene, PP, Miller, etc.

As for TOR getting off to a fast start. I agree they probably will for exactly the reasons you mentioned.

But no, they don't have the vets I'm talking about. There is no Nene, PP, Gortats on that team.

They are developing. I like DeRozan. Vasquez has shown to be a solid player and is great off the bench. They should be fun to watch. I'm also going to keep tabs on Bruno Caboclo.

But they are a step below WAS this year and they are likely another first round exit in the playoffs.

Maybe with the right moves or just another year of seasoning, they can be a 2nd round team in 2015/16

I disagree our window isn't open. I think its more open then theirs is because we have Wall, Beal and now Otto but we also have the vet to get deeper in the playoffs. Then as Miller and PP peal off, Wall, Beal, Otto, Gortat and whoever else we add take over as that playoff experienced player, only this time, they are young and can do it a long time.

TOR is more the blind leading the blind. They don't have anyone like Nene, Gortat and Paul to lead them there.

Toronto is hardly without veteran Lowry will be 29, Amir Johnson is 28 but with 10 years experience.
Lowry & Wall are the best 2 PGs in the conference and as equal as you can get.
Vasquez and Cherry are better than Miller
DeMar improves every year and at this point is definitely better than Beal but Beal has a better 3 point shot.
L. Williams and Martell are equivalent players but Martell isn't health.
Pierce & Porter a interesting combination I hope that Porter improves since Pierce played extended minutes at PF.
Toronto is now deep at SF Ross # & D, James Johnson strong defender against bigger SF, Hamilton long and strong & Caboclo a rookie all potential can be a bust or a star.
PF Nene, Hump & Blair strong and tough 3some versus A. Johnson, Patterson & Hansbrough very equilant but different. Toronto has a stretch 4 in Patterson that Washington lacks
C Gortat was a top 4 C in the East last year but needs Nene to back him up while Valanciunas is a 3rd year C ready to step up this year he is stronger and with improved defense he may overtake Gortat, Stiemsma was added as back-up C and Nogueira is a rookie who was MVDP in his league in Spain last year.

Toronto also had a winning record against the west last year.

So Toronto has 2 interesting rookies developing,

See Toronto 2nd and Washington 3rd
Don't see a great difference in the teams except Toronto is younger and more players coming into prime.

I said playoff experienced players, not just experienced players.

Johnson 09-'10 CHI 4 games 5 min off bench, '13-'14 MEM 3 games 9 min off bench
Patrick Patterson 13-'14 for 7 gms TOR 28 minutes off the bench
Vasquez '10-'11 13 games for MEM off bench 10 mins, 7 games in 13-'14 for TOR off the bench
Fields 10-'11 NY 4 games as starter, 11-'12 5 games, 4 as starter, '13-'14 TOR 3 games 9 min from the bench
C Hayes '06-'07 HOU 7 gms starter, '07-'08 6 gms bench, 08-'09 13 games bench, 13-'14 TOR 5 games bench
Lou - '07-'08 n '08-'09 6 gms off bench, '10-'11 5 gms off bench, '10-'11 13 gms bench, '13-'14 7 gms
Hansbrough '10-'11 IND 5 gms starter, 11-'12 IND 11 gms bench, 12-'13 IND 19 gm bench, 13-'14 TOR 3 gm bench

Amir '07-'08 DET 8 games 5 mins a game off bench, 08-'09 DET 3 games 4 mins off bench, 13-'14 TOR 7 gms starter
Lowry '08-'09 13 games off bench 20 mins for HOU, 7 games in 13-'14 for TOR as a starter
DeRozen - 13-'14 for TOR 7 games as a starter
Ross 13-'14 for TOR 7 games as a starter
Valanciunas 13-'14 for TOR 7 games as a starter

I must admit. There are a few more years in there then I remember off hand but lots of that is bench time and in limited minutes in there. 3 of the starters only have 7 playoff games of experience and the other two don't have much more.

So my point still stands. Hansbrough is their playoff vet having made it 19 games deep one year. Most the rest is limited action in first round exists, bench play.

Vs

Paul Peirce 148 games all as a starter. Thats more then TORs entire team. Deep series and a title ring
http://espn.go.com/nba/player/stats/_/i ... aul-pierce

Gortat 57 games in 4 appearances, one first round, one 2nd round, one conference, 1 title series
Nene 8 playoff appearances. 1x 2nd rounds, 1x conference series. 46 starts
Wall one appearance last year 2nd round
Beal one appearance last year 2nd round

Plus all the time from Blair 4 years with SAS and with DAL. Two great organizations.
Drew Gooden's time with CLE title series plus with SAS and WAS last year. 5 total appearances. 40 starts

Plus Miller, Webster

That was the point I was making. Again, playoff experience isn't everything, but how often do team go deep in the playoffs when they dont have key players with that deep playoff experience.

Even MJ took 4 tries before he got out of the first round.
LeBron made ECF his 3rd year with vets like Ilgauskas 7 years, Hughes 7 years, Eric Snow 10 years, Donyell Marshall 11 year. See my point ?

[stevemcqueen1]

I'm not too big on a team to make a big leap that hasn't gotten out of the first round of the playoffs.

Yeah that is an issue, but I don't think it holds them back in the regular season. That's where I think Toronto is built to thrive with a deep rotation and good home court advantage but not necessarily the best top end talent. Denver used that formula for a couple years and ultimately got to 57 wins and in a tougher division and conference.

Also, I don't necessarily think it takes a big leap from them to get the 1 seed. They won 48 last year, I think a six or seven win bump gives them a very good chance at a one seed.

I don't think there will be any teams in the East really threatening to win 60. I see a lot hanging around 50, all within a game or two of each other. The top got taken off the East this year.

[Hidden Eye]

I'm not too big on a team to make a big leap that hasn't gotten out of the first round of the playoffs.

Yeah that is an issue, but I don't think it holds them back in the regular season. That's where I think Toronto is built to thrive with a deep rotation and good home court advantage but not necessarily the best top end talent. Denver used that formula for a couple years and ultimately got to 57 wins and in a tougher division and conference.

Also, I don't necessarily think it takes a big leap from them to get the 1 seed. They won 48 last year, I think a six or seven win bump gives them a very good chance at a one seed.

I don't think there will be any teams in the East really threatening to win 60. I see a lot hanging around 50, all within a game or two of each other. The top got taken off the East this year.

It will being a first round exit no matter what that team is now isn't going to magically be a top team in east. They will most likely win the Division but they haven't improved enough to be a 1-3 seed. I see them a 4 seed just because Atlantic division is really weak and shouldn't have a hard time getting that. That doesn't mean they will be dangerous to other teams in East. They had one good year after a trade. Let's see if they can replicate that or do better and make it past the first round.

[hands11]

I'm not too big on a team to make a big leap that hasn't gotten out of the first round of the playoffs.

Yeah that is an issue, but I don't think it holds them back in the regular season. That's where I think Toronto is built to thrive with a deep rotation and good home court advantage but not necessarily the best top end talent. Denver used that formula for a couple years and ultimately got to 57 wins and in a tougher division and conference.

Also, I don't necessarily think it takes a big leap from them to get the 1 seed. They won 48 last year, I think a six or seven win bump gives them a very good chance at a one seed.

I don't think there will be any teams in the East really threatening to win 60. I see a lot hanging around 50, all within a game or two of each other. The top got taken off the East this year.

Not seeing that as true. The top just got replaced by CLE.

Kyrie, Miller, LeBron, Love and Varejao will the starting line up so this idea that they might be off to a slow start I think is kind of silly.

LeBron has already played with Miller, Varejao, James Jones and Ray if he joins. Its not like its going to take anything for Love and Kryie to find their roles.

Kryie/Matthew Dellavedova/John Lucas III
Miller/Dion Waiters
LeBron/Shawn Marion/James Jones
Love/Tristan Thompson
Varejao

Now we just have to see what they do with the rest.

Dwight Powell 6-11,
Erik Murphy 6-10 and whatever they are doing with Haywood 7-0.
Plus whoever else they add..i.e Okafor, Ray Allen

Just waiting on the final pieces they get.

Could there be a DEN trade in the works involving Triston and Waiter for Afflalo and Mozgov ? Maybe a 3rd team involved. Maybe the Haywood 10M instant expiring is used to get McGee ?

I doubt they are done just yet.

[Detective]

I like how no one has bothered to even counter my post on the previous page, because it blatantly showcased a distinct lack of knowledge when it comes to statistical analysis and the structure of our team.

hands11, bro, you are providing your stance, but not really actually debating and deconstructing the arguments of others. It's mostly just posturing on your part, dude. Nothing personal, just stating my opinion.

:brofist:

[montestewart]

I like how no one has bothered to even counter my post on the previous page, because it blatantly showcased a distinct lack of knowledge when it comes to statistical analysis and the structure of our team.

hands11, bro, you are providing your stance, but not really actually debating and deconstructing the arguments of others. It's mostly just posturing on your part, dude. Nothing personal, just stating my opinion.

:brofist:

Well, I can say with certainty that isn't the reason I failed to respond.

[Detective]

I like how no one has bothered to even counter my post on the previous page, because it blatantly showcased a distinct lack of knowledge when it comes to statistical analysis and the structure of our team.

hands11, bro, you are providing your stance, but not really actually debating and deconstructing the arguments of others. It's mostly just posturing on your part, dude. Nothing personal, just stating my opinion.

:brofist:

Well, I can say with certainty that isn't the reason I failed to respond.

Haha, I'm just not used to seeing anyone not respond. We basically have as many Quotes as And1's on the Raps board, due to the sheer volume of users. This place is kind of like a ghost town. God only knows what Utah's board is like.

[montestewart]

I like how no one has bothered to even counter my post on the previous page, because it blatantly showcased a distinct lack of knowledge when it comes to statistical analysis and the structure of our team.

hands11, bro, you are providing your stance, but not really actually debating and deconstructing the arguments of others. It's mostly just posturing on your part, dude. Nothing personal, just stating my opinion.

:brofist:

Well, I can say with certainty that isn't the reason I failed to respond.

Haha, I'm just not used to seeing anyone not respond. We basically have as many Quotes as And1's on the Raps board, due to the sheer volume of users. This place is kind of like a ghost town. God only knows what Utah's board is like.

Yeah, I've visited the Raptors board. Definitely more active. Wiz board sometimes slows down in the offseason, until WizardsDynasty starts showing up with his predictions, which usually livens the place up. I've been hanging in the GB and PC boards. Haven't some of the others anywhere.

[hands11]

I like how no one has bothered to even counter my post on the previous page, because it blatantly showcased a distinct lack of knowledge when it comes to statistical analysis and the structure of our team.

hands11, bro, you are providing your stance, but not really actually debating and deconstructing the arguments of others. It's mostly just posturing on your part, dude. Nothing personal, just stating my opinion.

:brofist:

Yes, I provided my stance because is was misrepresented.
Then I posted the details. I even conceded TOR has a few more years of general experience then I remembered off hand.

Then I asked "how often do team go deeps in the playoffs when they dont have key players with that deep playoff experience." Specially without a league top player.

You want a debate, then jump in. I fail to see where you did anything more then what you just claimed I did.. in what you called "posturing your part"

As I said before, its not like I don't like several of players on the TOR roster and its not that I don't think they have a chance or a future. I was just pointing out what I think is more likely this year and if they are to step it up, what it would take.

I expect them to be solid, get off to a fast start and make the playoffs. What I don't see is them having a high probability of topping last years record. Sure they could via injuries to other teams, etc. But adding medium talented depth doesn't get them more wins, it just gets them depth in case they have their own injuries. I think if they are to shine, it will be because of DeRozen and Valanciunas and probably more about Valanciunas. Those two need to be the center of the team with Lowry filling in more then the team being about Lowry with them filling in.

Its more likely they they are another year away from gaining that experience. Another solid season and first round playoffs, another good off season and summer to get better, then I would project them into the 2nd round if they still measure up to the other top 4 teams.

That how I see it.

[Sluggerface]

I am not taking anything away from your team, but it took 3 OT's to beat our Raps team last season with our current coaching style, and that was also with Amir and KLow fouled out. I think we remember how the rest of the earlier games went. But that was last season.

You're right, that was last season, to further put it in perspective, Washington also won that game without Nene. 3 of those games Washington's bench trotted out the likes of Kevin Seraphin, Jan Vesely, Eric Maynor, and Chris Singleton, all of whom are already out of the league, or will be by seasons end. Toronto's starters only decidedly outplayed the Wizards starting five in one game. Washington had issues dealing with the raptors speed and athleticism, but the discrepancy you're implying wasn't as drastic as everyone thought it was last season. Washington won that game because they were the better team that night.

Washington also added depth this offseason, however we are not worried as much about soon to be 37 year old Pierce(it was JJ that killed us in our series against the Nets, the entire 7 games, not Pierce) or Gortat/Nene(who will turn 31 and 32 respectively, the latter with injury concerns), or soon to be 39 year old Andre Miller.

I applaud your fearlessness, but this is a ridiculous slight. Gortat and Nene absolutely destroyed Chicago, and put Indiana's bigs through the ringer. The only reason Washington lost to the Pacers was because John Wall laid eggs offensively and defensively against George Hill the entire series. They may be done in a couple of years, but Nene (when healthy) and Gortat are more or less going to retain being the most physically imposing duo in the eastern conference for at least another year.

[Dat2U]

I'm not too big on a team to make a big leap that hasn't gotten out of the first round of the playoffs.

Tell that to Boston the year they acquired Garnett, Allen & Pierce or to Miami when they acquired LeBron & Bosh.

You think it really makes a difference THIS SEASON that Cleveland didn't make it past the 1st round last year? No.

It's all about the talent, everything else is fan/media created dribble.

[Dat2U]

Toronto is hardly without veteran Lowry will be 29, Amir Johnson is 28 but with 10 years experience.
Lowry & Wall are the best 2 PGs in the conference and as equal as you can get.
Vasquez and Cherry are better than Miller
DeMar improves every year and at this point is definitely better than Beal but Beal has a better 3 point shot.
L. Williams and Martell are equivalent players but Martell isn't health.
Pierce & Porter a interesting combination I hope that Porter improves since Pierce played extended minutes at PF.
Toronto is now deep at SF Ross # & D, James Johnson strong defender against bigger SF, Hamilton long and strong & Caboclo a rookie all potential can be a bust or a star.
PF Nene, Hump & Blair strong and tough 3some versus A. Johnson, Patterson & Hansbrough very equilant but different. Toronto has a stretch 4 in Patterson that Washington lacks
C Gortat was a top 4 C in the East last year but needs Nene to back him up while Valanciunas is a 3rd year C ready to step up this year he is stronger and with improved defense he may overtake Gortat, Stiemsma was added as back-up C and Nogueira is a rookie who was MVDP in his league in Spain last year.

Toronto also had a winning record against the west last year.

So Toronto has 2 interesting rookies developing,

See Toronto 2nd and Washington 3rd
Don't see a great difference in the teams except Toronto is younger and more players coming into prime.

Lowry is really good, was even better than Wall last year although I expect the gap to continue to get smaller as time goes on. I love Lowry and think he was clearly an all-star last year. Vasquez is a rock solid backup, but so is Andre Miller. I have no idea about Cherry and most 3rd string PGs don't move the needle one way or the other.

I've never been much of a DeRozan fan and thought the all-star selection was underserved. Last year was a big year in terms of his growth were he went from being a terrible player to passable starter. If he makes a similar leap this year then the all-star selection will be well deserved. Beal had a huge playoff run but that followed a 2nd year that flatlined in terms of improvement. I'd give the slight edge to DeRozan all things being equal but Beal could certainly take a leap in his 3rd year. As far as LWilliams vs. Martell, who cares? Again neither guy is probably moving the needle much, especially considering both are terrible defenders.

SF favors Washington IMO. Pierce even at an advanced age, clearly outplays Ross. Ross certainly has room for improvement but he'll need to recover from his playoff meltdown where he completely disappeared offensively for the entire series. Defensively, he's still a work in progress, being more promise than results and probably why Toronto felt the need to add a big defender like James Johnson at the 3 to help out. Porter & Rice both dominated a summer league filled with big name stars and look to fight for minutes on the wing while Webster is out.

I love Amir Johnson. I think he's the perfect complement big. He defends well, hits the mid-range J with consistency and out works everyone. IMO, he & Lowry are the core of the Raptors and the biggest reason why you guys surprised so much last year. Nene is only a part time player at this stage but defensively he still has a huge impact. The Wizards have respectable depth with Humphries & Gooden but Patrick Patterson is one of the better PFs off the bench and really does a solid job of spacing the floor. Wiz are solid at PF but this is where Toronto's strength lies.

The biggest disparity comes at C where you point out Gortat's age but a bigger issue would be Valanciunas age of 22. Most young bigs aren't very good or have a negative impact on the court and Valanciunas fits into that theme very well. Doesn't mean Valanciunas is a bust, it just means it takes years for a young big to learn the games nuaunces to a point where they're no longer killing the team while their out on the floor. And it's not likely to happen in his 3rd year. He still gives ground too easily to defenders, he's still learning to be aware of his surroundings & rotating quick enough to challenge shots. I'd expect Valanciunas to take small strides towards improvement this season but he's still likely to struggle defensively this season.

As far as Toronto being younger and coming into their prime.... Um, you realize Wall is 24 & Beal is 21, right? Is the presence of Caboclo & Noqueira supposed to offset that? The Raps have no one with that kind of upside unless your predicting future stardom for DeRozan. Ross & Valanciunas are likely good role players in time, not future stars.

[Higga]

Don't forget we have Porter and Rice, jr. who I think will be productive contributors this year at the very least.

[Hidden Eye]

I'm not too big on a team to make a big leap that hasn't gotten out of the first round of the playoffs.

Tell that to Boston the year they acquired Garnett, Allen & Pierce or to Miami when they acquired LeBron & Bosh.

You think it really makes a difference THIS SEASON that Cleveland didn't make it past the 1st round last year? No.

It's all about the talent, everything else is fan/media created dribble.

14-15 Cavs aren't in the same caliber as the 07-08 Celtics and 10-11 Heat.

Not every team is going to gel into successful team in one year.

[dckingsfan]

I'm not too big on a team to make a big leap that hasn't gotten out of the first round of the playoffs.

Tell that to Boston the year they acquired Garnett, Allen & Pierce or to Miami when they acquired LeBron & Bosh.

You think it really makes a difference THIS SEASON that Cleveland didn't make it past the 1st round last year? No.

It's all about the talent, everything else is fan/media created dribble.

14-15 Cavs aren't in the same caliber as the 07-08 Celtics and 10-11 Heat.

Not every team is going to gel into successful team in one year.

So you are predicting they won't win the ECF?

[Hidden Eye]

Tell that to Boston the year they acquired Garnett, Allen & Pierce or to Miami when they acquired LeBron & Bosh.

You think it really makes a difference THIS SEASON that Cleveland didn't make it past the 1st round last year? No.

It's all about the talent, everything else is fan/media created dribble.

14-15 Cavs aren't in the same caliber as the 07-08 Celtics and 10-11 Heat.

Not every team is going to gel into successful team in one year.

So you are predicting they won't win the ECF?

They have a chance of making it but not guranteed they will make it all the way.. depends on the seedings near end of season.

[dckingsfan]

OK, overall favorites with a possibility to get bumped if they meet a hot team that matches up with them.

[hands11]

ECF

Wizards vs Cleveland

If not

Wizards vs BRK

[LyricalRico]

Marc Stein's first NBA Power Rankings:

http://espn.go.com/nba/powerrankings

He has the Wiz 9th overall and 3rd in the East.