GT 37: Wiz at ATL January 11th 3pm

[hands11]

Just gonna make one comment - ATL is no fluke. They have an interesting mix of talent and great coaching.

Was that 1 comment and 2 sub comments.

or 3 comments ?

[hands11]

I wasn't able to watch yesterday's game, and in retrospect I suppose I'm glad to have missed it!

As to building a narrative of this or that moment being a turning point in the game, maybe not having seen the game gives one a useful birds-eye perspective. If there's a game between Team A & Team B, and Team A gets to take 76 shots and gets to the line 15 times, while Team B gets to take 89 shots and has 24 FTAs, then... guess which team is going to win?

You can point out a "turning point", but... it really wasn't one. I.e. had that moment been different, there'd have been another moment come along and get called a "turning point." If you give the other team enough more possessions that they get to take 13 more shots and are at the line 9 more times than you are, well then you lose. Period. You have no chance whatever to win that game.

I agree with Hands that Dennis Schroeder is a heckuva prospect -- I loved him in the '13 draft -- but he went 4-14 w/ 2 TOs in his 20 minutes. Hard to see that he could have been a big difference maker. Sefolosha, on the other hand, was unbelievably efficient. But... as I say, I didn't get to see the game.

Agreed. They forced the Wizards into a lot of turnovers but being physical and jumping all the lanes. Same thing TOR does.

But Schroeder stats don't tell the story. He was a difference maker. He drove a lot and forced the defense to adjust to him.

[dobrojim]

My sincerest of apologies for not yet posting Fish Thoughts for either weekend game. Life and all. But I do appreciate the groundswell of calls, texts, and the like for my take.

Wow. Atlanta is really effing good. As if their recent performance wasn't evidence enough, they just kicked the crap out of the Wizards. When they're not ka-kawing on us, they're really fun to watch and easy to appreciate. They're a little more fun and interesting because no one saw this coming. They won 37 games with the same team. Now Horford comes back and they;re elite? Just crazy.

Defensively, the remind me a little bit of good Duke teams. They have such active hands and swat and slap at everything, that they get away with a bunch of touch fouls; refs can't call everything and they tend to reward aggressiveness in my experience.

At some point, the Wizards need to figure out a way to get themselves ready for matinee games. This is becoming a pattern (and the MLK game vs Philly looms as a potential ugly letdown loss).

So, the coaching thing. Part of me loves Randy Wittman and will truly feel forever indebted to him. I love that he has a reputation as a bit of prick, and I love how he has shepherded a culture change here. And the farting thing.

But I do feel as though he's out of his depth against the league's better coaches. There's a reason that guys like Bud and Dave Joerger were being bandied about these parts for years and why the Wittman hire and extension made even the optimists squirm a bit. A lot of this was on display yesterday.

From a scheme standpoint, I can't explain all the intracacies -- though I could understand them if I spent a little time studying up. But basically, the Wizards run a ton of action to get lots of shots that the defense wants them to take. Play around with the shot chart over at basketball reference. The Wiz shot between 2 and 3 times as many long 2's and 50% fewer 3's. Things wer exacerbated by the fact that ATL shot well and the Wiz shot poorly, but the point remains that ATL's offensive work is getting them more good shots -- 3's and shots at the basket -- than the Wiz's.

The other thing -- and this is a big one for me -- is Witt and Bud's respective substitution patterns. Not so much who they're playing (that's another conversation for another day), but WHEN. I implore you to go look at the game flow over at popcorn-machine.net You'll notice that until the game was effectively decided, there was a total of one minute and fifteen seconds of game time in which Bud did not have at least two starters on the floor.. This matter in two ways. First, it allowed ATL a 9-0 run against our lineup of 5 reserves at the end of the 1Q and start of the 2Q. But secondly -- and more importantly and globally -- it gives ATL a cohesion across their rotation whereby anyone can play with anyone. I really want to see more of this in the from Wittman. I believe it will bear from come playoff time and allow the Wiz to play matchups where there is necessity and opportunity.

Time for everyone to lick those wounds and get ready for an extremely tough back to back hosting the Spurs and going to Chicago. Taking one of these would be big.

good job on the Fish thoughts once again.

one quibble - most people probably didn't see ATL as being this good before the season.
Those are probably the same folks who have already forgotten that at this point last season
ATL was doing quite well then. Horford got hurt and they fell apart before rallying at the end
to make the playoffs. Then we all remember they took the #1 seed to 7 games whupping
them soundly in a few of their Ws.

Good point about Wittman's rotation re all players being plug-n-play. And the
value of that in improving cohesion and chemistry.
Lately Witt has basically subbed by age. Pierce exits first, followed by Nene.
In the absence of foul trouble, there is a fairly consistent pattern. Possibly
Witt's rotation is driven by the long view of making sure we fairly strictly limit PT of
both PP and Nene. I think there is value in that as well. But from game to game,
it does create vulnerabilities our opp can exploit.

[fishercob]

My sincerest of apologies for not yet posting Fish Thoughts for either weekend game. Life and all. But I do appreciate the groundswell of calls, texts, and the like for my take.

Wow. Atlanta is really effing good. As if their recent performance wasn't evidence enough, they just kicked the crap out of the Wizards. When they're not ka-kawing on us, they're really fun to watch and easy to appreciate. They're a little more fun and interesting because no one saw this coming. They won 37 games with the same team. Now Horford comes back and they;re elite? Just crazy.

Defensively, the remind me a little bit of good Duke teams. They have such active hands and swat and slap at everything, that they get away with a bunch of touch fouls; refs can't call everything and they tend to reward aggressiveness in my experience.

At some point, the Wizards need to figure out a way to get themselves ready for matinee games. This is becoming a pattern (and the MLK game vs Philly looms as a potential ugly letdown loss).

So, the coaching thing. Part of me loves Randy Wittman and will truly feel forever indebted to him. I love that he has a reputation as a bit of prick, and I love how he has shepherded a culture change here. And the farting thing.

But I do feel as though he's out of his depth against the league's better coaches. There's a reason that guys like Bud and Dave Joerger were being bandied about these parts for years and why the Wittman hire and extension made even the optimists squirm a bit. A lot of this was on display yesterday.

From a scheme standpoint, I can't explain all the intracacies -- though I could understand them if I spent a little time studying up. But basically, the Wizards run a ton of action to get lots of shots that the defense wants them to take. Play around with the shot chart over at basketball reference. The Wiz shot between 2 and 3 times as many long 2's and 50% fewer 3's. Things wer exacerbated by the fact that ATL shot well and the Wiz shot poorly, but the point remains that ATL's offensive work is getting them more good shots -- 3's and shots at the basket -- than the Wiz's.

The other thing -- and this is a big one for me -- is Witt and Bud's respective substitution patterns. Not so much who they're playing (that's another conversation for another day), but WHEN. I implore you to go look at the game flow over at popcorn-machine.net You'll notice that until the game was effectively decided, there was a total of one minute and fifteen seconds of game time in which Bud did not have at least two starters on the floor.. This matter in two ways. First, it allowed ATL a 9-0 run against our lineup of 5 reserves at the end of the 1Q and start of the 2Q. But secondly -- and more importantly and globally -- it gives ATL a cohesion across their rotation whereby anyone can play with anyone. I really want to see more of this in the from Wittman. I believe it will bear from come playoff time and allow the Wiz to play matchups where there is necessity and opportunity.

Time for everyone to lick those wounds and get ready for an extremely tough back to back hosting the Spurs and going to Chicago. Taking one of these would be big.

good job on the Fish thoughts once again.

one quibble - most people probably didn't see ATL as being this good before the season.
Those are probably the same folks who have already forgotten that at this point last season
ATL was doing quite well then. Horford got hurt and they fell apart before rallying at the end
to make the playoffs. Then we all remember they took the #1 seed to 7 games whupping
them soundly in a few of their Ws.

Good point about Wittman's rotation re all players being plug-n-play. And the
value of that in improving cohesion and chemistry.
Lately Witt has basically subbed by age. Pierce exits first, followed by Nene.
In the absence of foul trouble, there is a fairly consistent pattern. Possibly
Witt's rotation is driven by the long view of making sure we fairly strictly limit PT of
both PP and Nene. I think there is value in that as well. But from game to game,
it does create vulnerabilities our opp can exploit.

Yeah, that was sort of my point on Horford. He's clearly under-appreciated.