Is this team a contender to make the finals?

colts18 · Post #1 » by **colts18** » Tue Feb 3, 2015 4:46 pm

With the wide open East that features no strong teams, do you believe that this team is a legitimate contender for a spot in the finals? I don't see a team in the East that would be clear favorites against the Wizards in a 7 game series.

JWizmentality · Post #2 » by **JWizmentality** » Tue Feb 3, 2015 4:50 pm

IBTL. Troll

Post #3 » by **TheSecretWeapon** » Tue Feb 3, 2015 4:53 pm

20MexicanosIn1Van · Post #4 » by **20MexicanosIn1Van** » Tue Feb 3, 2015 6:13 pm

Since everyone defines contender differently, I'll just give my probabilities on who will come out of the East.

1. Atlanta (45%)
2. Cleveland (20%)
3. Toronto (15%)
4. Washington (15%)
4. Chicago (5%)

Post #5 » by **nate33** » Tue Feb 3, 2015 6:15 pm

The Wizards have a better shot this year than they've had anytime in the last 25 years, but it's still a fairly long shot. They'd probably be favorites to win a series against Chicago, but they're modest underdogs against Cleveland and Toronto, and big time underdogs against Atlanta.

colts18 · Post #6 » by **colts18** » Tue Feb 3, 2015 6:29 pm

Here are the Vegas odds for winning the East

Team Odds
Cleveland Cavaliers 9/5
Atlanta Hawks 2/1
Chicago Bulls 3/1
Toronto Raptors 8/1
Washington Wizards 10/1

That would give us a 9.1% chance of winning the East.

Post #7 » by **nate33** » Tue Feb 3, 2015 6:30 pm

3/1 odds for the Bulls? Gotta bet against that one. That's easy money.

Post #8 » by **TheSecretWeapon** » Tue Feb 3, 2015 6:42 pm

Basketball-Reference has these odds for winning the Eastern Conference:

ATL 48.0%
TOR 26.6%
CLE 8.1%
CHI 7.6%
WAS 4.6%
MIL 4.3%
MIA 0.4%
CHA 0.3%
DET 0.1%

Out West, they have Golden State at 53.9%, the Clippers at 17.5% and then scale down from Memphis at 7.9%.

So, B-R's numbers suggest we're going to see Golden State vs. Atlanta in the Finals this year.

And wow, just noticed the Wizards have slipped below Milwaukee in SRS (combination of scoring differential and strength of schedule. Wiz are now 16th in SRS.

Wes_Tiny_Abe_ · Post #9 » by **Wes_Tiny_Abe_** » Tue Feb 3, 2015 6:44 pm

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vq-NIrgg9kU[/youtube]

Post #10 » by **Ruzious** » Tue Feb 3, 2015 6:57 pm

TheSecretWeapon wrote:Basketball-Reference has these odds for winning the Eastern Conference:

ATL 48.0%
TOR 26.6%
CLE 8.1%
CHI 7.6%
WAS 4.6%
MIL 4.3%
MIA 0.4%
CHA 0.3%
DET 0.1%

Out West, they have Golden State at 53.9%, the Clippers at 17.5% and then scale down from Memphis at 7.9%.

So, B-R's numbers suggest we're going to see Golden State vs. Atlanta in the Finals this year.

And wow, just noticed the Wizards have slipped below Milwaukee in SRS (combination of scoring differential and strength of schedule. Wiz are now 16th in SRS.

I'd still give Chicago and Cleveland a better chance than Atlanta and Toronto, because stars tend to win in the playoffs.

FAH1223 · Post #11 » by **FAH1223** » Tue Feb 3, 2015 7:25 pm

Ruzious wrote:
TheSecretWeapon wrote:Basketball-Reference has these odds for winning the Eastern Conference:

ATL 48.0%
TOR 26.6%
CLE 8.1%
CHI 7.6%
WAS 4.6%
MIL 4.3%
MIA 0.4%
CHA 0.3%
DET 0.1%

Out West, they have Golden State at 53.9%, the Clippers at 17.5% and then scale down from Memphis at 7.9%.

So, B-R's numbers suggest we're going to see Golden State vs. Atlanta in the Finals this year.

And wow, just noticed the Wizards have slipped below Milwaukee in SRS (combination of scoring differential and strength of schedule. Wiz are now 16th in SRS.

I'd still give Chicago and Cleveland a better chance than Atlanta and Toronto, because stars tend to win in the playoffs.

2011 Derrick Rose isn't walking through that door.

LeBron sure.

Post #12 » by **Ruzious** » Tue Feb 3, 2015 7:38 pm

Gasol and Butler are stars this season - at least they're playing like stars - and Noah has credentials.

FAH1223 · Post #13 » by **FAH1223** » Tue Feb 3, 2015 7:42 pm

Ruzious wrote:Gasol and Butler are stars this season - at least they're playing like stars - and Noah has credentials.

They'll be worn out by the time the postseason starts.

jivelikenice · Post #14 » by **jivelikenice** » Tue Feb 3, 2015 8:54 pm

This team absolutely has the opportunity to be a Finals contender out of the East; I just don't think Ernie can make the necessary tweaks and I don't think Randy is capable of leading them there. You add a 12-15 ppg combo guard to come off the bench & a backup stretch big and all of a sudden the roster is plenty capable...

Post #15 » by **Ruzious** » Tue Feb 3, 2015 9:02 pm

Everything and everyWiz will have to be hitting on all cylinders for the Wiz to win... the first round of the playoffs. Seriously, Gortat and Nene both have to be playing at their peak level - which has to be a lot better than the level they've been playing at recently.

payitforward · Post #16 » by **payitforward** » Tue Feb 3, 2015 9:17 pm

We're not a contender, no.

Keep in mind that last year's team that was beat in R2 closed the season 19-11 -- the same record we have now %-wise. In other words, although we are a better team than the one that *started* last season, we don't seem to have improved the team at all in the off-season.

"Improved" in the sense of made ourselves likely to win more games than that team. And that's despite Wall having improved and Beal as well.

We weren't a contender last year, we won't be next year, and we won't be the following year -- unless of course we win the KD sweepstakes. Any team in the East would be, so that doesn't mean much either.

payitforward · Post #17 » by **payitforward** » Tue Feb 3, 2015 9:20 pm

Ruzious wrote:Everything and everyWiz will have to be hitting on all cylinders for the Wiz to win... the first round of the playoffs. Seriously, Gortat and Nene both have to be playing at their peak level - which has to be a lot better than the level they've been playing at recently.

I agree -- and not just Gortat/Nene. Humphries would have to be in the top part of his performance curve, ditto Pierce, and Butler would have to play the way he did the first 1/3 of the season (i.e. not the way he's playing now).

Could happen I suppose... but very doubtful!!

WallToWall · Post #18 » by **WallToWall** » Wed Feb 4, 2015 4:27 am

We need a starting caliber PF or C who can rebound a lot more than Nene or Gortat.
We need a scorer on the bench.
We need a killer instinct, and be able to close out games.
So, no, we aren't there yet.

Ball4life32 · Post #19 » by **Ball4life32** » Wed Feb 4, 2015 2:38 pm

Ruzious wrote:Gasol and Butler are stars this season - at least they're playing like stars - and Noah has credentials.

Then so are Teague, Millsap and Horford.

lastemp3ror · Post #20 » by **lastemp3ror** » Wed Feb 4, 2015 2:41 pm

TheSecretWeapon wrote:Basketball-Reference has these odds for winning the Eastern Conference:

ATL 48.0%
TOR 26.6%
CLE 8.1%
CHI 7.6%
WAS 4.6%
MIL 4.3%
MIA 0.4%
CHA 0.3%
DET 0.1%

Out West, they have Golden State at 53.9%, the Clippers at 17.5% and then scale down from Memphis at 7.9%.

So, B-R's numbers suggest we're going to see Golden State vs. Atlanta in the Finals this year.

And wow, just noticed the Wizards have slipped below Milwaukee in SRS (combination of scoring differential and strength of schedule. Wiz are now 16th in SRS.

The Wizards only have a .3% chance higher than the Bucks? That is so ridiculous.