2015 Free Agency and Offseason Part 1

[Ruzious]

Pretty much every year, Dallas re-acquires Bernard James at some point for the veteran minimum. He's just as good as Seraphin. And Bernard James isn't the only Bernard James out there - so to speak. Actually, Blair is pretty much an offshoot of a Bernard James. Point being - KeSera can be replaced very cheaply.

[nate33]

But why would the Wiz pay the MLE to a player they've had for 5 years and still plays only 15.5 minutes a game - playing roughly (in more ways than one) 30% of the game? Hump plays more and gets 4.3 mil this season and 4.6 next season - and Hump was and is a better player.

Exactly. If Seraphin was a starter, or a high quality 22-25 mpg backup big, then he'd be worth the full MLE. But he's not. He's a 9th man type of big man. While that's an upgrade over what he has been most of his career, it's still not very good.

Teams could do worse, but nobody is dying to pay big money to a guy like Seraphin. Or rather, they shouldn't want to do so. If somebody does offer a ton, then let him walk. I'd rather pay a draft pick, or a D-League guy, or somebody's cast-off a vet minimum contract than pay an additional $7M a year for what is likely to be just a very modest upgrade. Look at it this way: would you rather have Drew Gooden at $900K, or Kevin Seraphin at $8M?

I completely agree with this, but we also gave Webster the full MLE, so it wouldn't be totally crazy is all I'm saying

The Webster of 2012/13 was light years better than Seraphin.

[gtn130]

The Webster of 2012/13 was light years better than Seraphin.

By what measurement? I really doubt that. Also Seraphin represents way more positional value. A big who can score in the post > a rotational wing player who can shoot from outside at an average clip.

Seraphin obviously isn't a great asset, but come on. Webster was never worth much.

[gtn130]

The Knicks will pay Bargnani $12m under the old salary cap, yet it's unfathomable that Seraphin could get $8m in an environment where the salary will grow by as much as 45% within the next two seasons. You guys are all crazy.

[nate33]

The Knicks will pay Bargnani $12m under the old salary cap, yet it's unfathomable that Seraphin could get $8m in an environment where the salary will grow by as much as 45% within the next two seasons. You guys are all crazy.

Great. Pick the absolute worst contract in the league as your comparison. That seems reasonable. I can just as easily counter that Timofey Mosgov makes $3M a year and he's a starting center on one of the best teams in the league.

Again, nobody is saying Seraphin won't get $8M. It's certainly possible that somebody in this league is stupid enough to pay him that much. But it will be a bad move, one that we sure as hell shouldn't match.

[gtn130]

That's my whole point. Bargnani's contract is a terrible deal, but someone still gave it to him. Giving Seraphin what would equate to the full MLE in a few years wouldn't be even remotely as bad as Bargnani's contract while still being bad.

[FAH1223]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MikePradaSBN/status/568930668471828480[/tweet]

Another big to look out for

[fishercob]

Something else to consider is that Pierce has a player option for next season. If the season ends badly, he gets injured, or if he can get a two year deal with good money and a good role elsewhere, he could bolt. That would complicate matters.

Optimism!

[Rafael122]

J. Michael seems to think Kev will get $8 mil a year which is absolutely absurd.

Is Ernie really that stupid, or is this J. Michael being J. Michael? For the most part, we're not geniuses here, and almost all of us understand that Seraphin has played poorly this season and pretty much throughout his career. Ernie has paid assistants/advisors/consultants that can't all be fools. Surely, they can provide him with convincing and overwhelming data showing this. The level of ineptness would have to be too great to sign him for anywhere near that kind of money, imo, so I refuse to believe it.

It's J. Michael being J. Michael. The coverage on the Wizards is absolutely atrocious.

[FAH1223]

J. Michael seems to think Kev will get $8 mil a year which is absolutely absurd.

Is Ernie really that stupid, or is this J. Michael being J. Michael? For the most part, we're not geniuses here, and almost all of us understand that Seraphin has played poorly this season and pretty much throughout his career. Ernie has paid assistants/advisors/consultants that can't all be fools. Surely, they can provide him with convincing and overwhelming data showing this. The level of ineptness would have to be too great to sign him for anywhere near that kind of money, imo, so I refuse to believe it.

It's J. Michael being J. Michael. The coverage on the Wizards is absolutely atrocious.

Yeah, look at this crap

http://www.csnwashington.com/basketball ... ss-pistons

I hate looking at his damn CSN articles.

[Dark Faze]

The first second and third thing you do before anything else is remove Ernie and pretty much the entire scouting staff.

No need to even think about any other moves before you do that.

[Ruzious]

There's one reasonably young veteran UFA this offseason that's finally getting his chance to play major minutes recently and is putting up numbers like 21.7 PER and 64% TS%. And he's a very long 7 footer - not named Whiteside or McGee. He's making all of $981,084 this season.

Spoiler:

Alexis Ajinka

[DCZards]

The Wiz will need a big man to replace Seraphin, unless they re-sign him, and/or unless they decide they're willing to play Blair.

I don't think Blair has lost his ability to play.

I also think the front office will want to re-sign Seraphin.

I'm hopeful that Blair can be a contributor...but first he needs to get his butt in shape. He's out of shape and I suspect that's one of the chief reasons he's not getting any PT.

Yeah, I know that Blair has always been a thick guy...but he's beyond that now. He's fat.

[nuposse04]

Still think Ed Davis as a third big would be the way to go. He's still relatively young and can play 4/5.

Problem is, we probably won't be able to afford him

[fishercob]

If I got hired as GM today, my first call would be to Kevin Love's agent to see if the rumors of his discontent in Cleveland are true and if he'd have interest in teaming up with Wall, Gortat, Beal, etc. in DC. If I could sell him (and a good GM should be able to do so, unless he's hell bent on a return to the west coast), I'd aggressively make moves to clear cap room to go after him.

The unhinged insanity of 2016 presents the Wizards with some short term opportunities. For one, Nene's expiring contract may be more movable than normal. Even if he's overpaid, the fact that he's a quality two-way big will attract some teams who want to add talent without blowing their shot at a big splash next summer. There will be teams who miss out on big free agents this summer who would take Nene into their cap room as a consolation prize -- perhaps even for a small draft pick asset. It only takes one from (New York, the Lakers, Dallas, Memphis, Orlando, Philly, etc). Attaching Webster would be critical, and depending on our cap situation, perhaps Blair or Hump.

The other thing I'd want to know from Love's agent is whether he desired a one year deal so as to take advantage of the new cap, or whether he wanted the security of a four year max deal. That said, I'd give him either.

As to the question on everyone's mind who has read this far -- WHAT ABOUT KEVIN DURANT???

I am convinced that the Wizards best (only?) shot at Durant is to get good enough so that he can see himself playing for titles here. If Love comes in on a one year deal, then Durant's salary slot is open (and you'd have Love's Bird Rights as a backup). If Love comes on a four year deal, you STILL go after Durant, and once you get the commitment from him, you trade Love (and he's relative bargain 3 year deal under the old cap) into someone else's cap space for assets. You could end up with 1 or 2 first round picks AND Durant as opposed to neither.

Love is a phenomenal fit on this team. He's not the defender Nene is, but he's an offensive superstar. He's another guy who we can run the offense through -- a great scorer, shooter, and passer -- and the "gravity" he creates will completely change our offense (especially with a better coach). And I'm convinced that Gortat is a better defender than he's given credit for and can be a very good defensive anchor for this team.

So while it's probably counterintuituve to a luddite like Ernie Grunfeld, the Wizards should be aggressive this summer about smartly improving the roster, and not just sit on their hands and hope for the best in 2016.

[nate33]

I like the idea, fishercob. I'm growing more and more skeptical of the KD2DC plan. When the cap was projected to be $80-82M, I thought it was a viable option because only a handful of teams would have enough cap room for a full max deal. But now that they're talking about a $90M cap, practically every team in the league will have max cap room. Frankly, I don't really want to give Grunfeld that much cap room at a time when every player's price tag is going to get driven up by supply/demand dynamics. If we land Durant, it could all work out. If we don't, we are absolutely screwed over. We'll have a skeleton crew for a team plus the option to sign a bunch of wildly overpaid, mediocre role players.

Your Kevin Love plan gives us a Third Way. It makes us more competitive next year, making us more attractive as a free agent destination the year after. It leaves us with Kevin Love as a fall back plan if KD2DC fails, and it ties up a bunch of money to protect Ernie from himself.

If Love really wants to leave, I wonder if Cleveland would be willing to just make a straight up trade of Love for Nene and Webster? They wouldn't have any cap room to sign a replacement for Love if Love left. At least by trading him for Nene, they get a quality stopgap veteran for a championship run next year while still clearing the deck for 2016.

The key to this is Love. He really would have to want to leave Cleveland and he'd have to want to play here rather than someplace else. Rumors are that he wants to play in LA eventually. We could sell him on the fact that LA isn't really capable of reloading until 2016 so he may as well have some fun playing with Wall in a weak conference for a year and then reassessing in 2016.

[nate33]

While we're on the subject of 2016, I want to discuss Bradley Beal. I'm really not liking the way things are shaping up. Beal looks like he's going to pan out to be a pretty ordinary player - a Courtney Lee/Jodie Meeks type of guy. I'm not hating. You can live with a player like that at starting SG. But you don't want to pay that guy 7 figures. For whatever reason, Beal has so much hype that he will cost a minimum of $13M a year in the crazy market of 2016, and he might even cost $18M or so. He's not worth it. Ernie really needs to get proactive here and trade him for a guy who won't be a free agent until 2017 or 2018. By then, the market will have settled a bit after most teams have shot their wad.

Beal should have great trade value and give us a quality return. Everyone loves him. Bill Simmons just ranked him as 30th highest in the league in trade value. I'd trade him for any number of guys he has ranked lower including Oladipo, DeRozan and Jabari Parker.

[Ruzious]

Fish, I'm thinking if you get Love, you get him to stay by having a plan to also get Durant. To get them both, you have to make choices to chop some people off the payroll. Beal and Gortat are the chopees, since Beal is going to be around a 16 mil cap hold. To acquire Love, you make Cleveland sign him and then make a trade that works real well for them - Gortat and Beal for a signed up Love. Gortat fits in their win now mode, and Beal gives them a 3 point shooter they need and a name player to make their fans happy.

Then we need a center - cheaply. We have the MLE to use, and UFA Alexis Ajinca might be far enough under the radar to steal - considering his salary this season is less than a million. He's only playing 14 minutes a game, but he's got a PER over 21 and a TS% of 62% - and a 7'8 wingspan. We'll still have Nene and Hump for quality depth up front next season. No Seraphin.

Then we need to replace Beal somehow. If Ajinca doesn't take up the whole MLE, find a cheap free agent like Babbitt, Gerald Green, Buddinger, Brandon Rush(?), and use our first round pick on either Justin Anderson or Tyus Jones. Neither is a pure 2, but both could work with John Wall. Jones has shown he can play with or without the ball - playing most of his minutes with PG Quinn Cook. It'd work because Wall can defend 2's. Anderson's made 46.9% of his 3's this season and provides a defensive presence. Otoh, his ball-handling would be a reason he'd be available when the Wiz pick.

The next year, Durant comes, and you still have room to add Satoransky and a big to backup Ajinka (Emeka Okafor?) and a late first to use.

[fishercob]

I like the idea, fishercob. I'm growing more and more skeptical of the KD2DC plan. When the cap was projected to be $80-82M, I thought it was a viable option because only a handful of teams would have enough cap room for a full max deal. But now that they're talking about a $90M cap, practically every team in the league will have max cap room. Frankly, I don't really want to give Grunfeld that much cap room at a time when every player's price tag is going to get driven up by supply/demand dynamics. If we land Durant, it could all work out. If we don't, we are absolutely screwed over. We'll have a skeleton crew for a team plus the option to sign a bunch of wildly overpaid, mediocre role players.

Your Kevin Love plan gives us a Third Way. It makes us more competitive next year, making us more attractive as a free agent destination the year after. It leaves us with Kevin Love as a fall back plan if KD2DC fails, and it ties up a bunch of money to protect Ernie from himself.

If Love really wants to leave, I wonder if Cleveland would be willing to just make a straight up trade of Love for Nene and Webster? They wouldn't have any cap room to sign a replacement for Love if Love left. At least by trading him for Nene, they get a quality stopgap veteran for a championship run next year while still clearing the deck for 2016.

The key to this is Love. He really would have to want to leave Cleveland and he'd have to want to play here rather than someplace else. Rumors are that he wants to play in LA eventually. We could sell him on the fact that LA isn't really capable of reloading until 2016 so he may as well have some fun playing with Wall in a weak conference for a year and then reassessing in 2016.

I doubt Cleveland would want Nene, but maybe there's a third team that would and would also want to unload a longer term contract (that Cleveland wouldn't mind) in exchange for Nene's expiring contract. Maybe Orlando and Channing Frye? Or maybe they want Joe Johnson?

That stuff is details. You are right that the key is Love. This is where a great GM who can work back channels and sell DC as a great fit and destination is a huge asset. Um.....oh well!

[fishercob]

While we're on the subject of 2016, I want to discuss Bradley Beal. I'm really not liking the way things are shaping up. Beal looks like he's going to pan out to be a pretty ordinary player - a Courtney Lee/Jodie Meeks type of guy. I'm not hating. You can live with a player like that at starting SG. But you don't want to pay that guy 7 figures. For whatever reason, Beal has so much hype that he will cost a minimum of $13M a year in the crazy market of 2016, and he might even cost $18M or so. He's not worth it. Ernie really needs to get proactive here and trade him for a guy who won't be a free agent until 2017 or 2018. By then, the market will have settled a bit after most teams have shot their wad.

Beal should have great trade value and give us a quality return. Everyone loves him. Bill Simmons just ranked him as 30th highest in the league in trade value. I'd trade him for any number of guys he has ranked lower including Oladipo, DeRozan and Jabari Parker.

I agree to an extent, but then when I see the meteoric leap hat Klay Thompson too once utilized properly, I am loathe to cut bait on a 21 year old who is amongst the best deep shooters in the league. You have to remind yourself that Beal is, in all liklihood, going epto get a good bit better.

I am not convinced that Wall/Love/Gortat/Beal could not contend for a title within a couple of years.