We should offer Khris Middleton a max contract, or whatever it takes to steal him

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Nah, just draft Dez Wells and hope he turns out to be even better than Middleton.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... ton-1.html
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... lls-1.html

Wells is destined to be a better pro than where he is currently projected.

Instead of pouring a lot of money into free agents like Middleton, it's better to look to build through the draft.

I love Dez Wells! But,
Thats one of those things smart teams do, Even if we keep our second I can see it happening now, Draft night, our second round pick comes around, Dez is on the board, and we pick some euro scrub we have never heard of or we trade the pick for cash.....

I feel like, Trading Gortat and beal in a sign and trade for Middleton Helps us a lot, 10-13 mill a year for a starting wing player is not going to be that bad when the cap goes up. Plus we are getting an extra pick which is another asset. Plus we shed cap, not much but some and we avoid the inevitable decline of Gortat. With 2 firsts and possibly our second, we could ad some really good pieces and assets to the team! But I over all agree with you! I would love to have Dez! or at worst R.J. Hunter.

Yeah, if Ernie gets to Ernie on yet another draft night. Expect as much to happen.

The perception around the league is that Beal's a future star. There is no way the Wizards would value Middleton enough to bring him in with the intention of taking Beal's job. No way. No how.

Gortat just got resigned. They're in it for the long haul with Marcin.

If anybody gets traded, I expect it will be Nene. His deal expires and I would expect he represents the best opportunity for the Wizards to acquire a pick and/or young talent.

[Dark Faze]

That perception will disappear if he has another season like this again next year though, nevermind his injury concerns.

And that perception is what might actually allow the deal to get done.

[closg00]

Nah, just draft Dez Wells and hope he turns out to be even better than Middleton.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... ton-1.html
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pla ... lls-1.html

Wells is destined to be a better pro than where he is currently projected.

Instead of pouring a lot of money into free agents like Middleton, it's better to look to build through the draft.

Ernie already tried to trade next years 1st round pick, packaging it with Webster. A deal didn't go-down, but I say it's 50/50 that we even use that pick next year.


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[Ruzious]

It's a little daunting I know, but to me its preferable to paying one of the worst mid-range shooters in the league who can't get to the line or dribble max money.

I still think Beal has room to grow, but he's got maybe one more season to prove what his potential in the league is. Right now he's not even an elite roleplayer. Middletons stats suggest he's one of the best shooters in the league, with upside elsewhere. If nothing else, what he already is is what we would hope Beal could achieve in time.

I agree with you there. Middleton is better than Beal, and he's plenty big enough to play the 3 and skilled enough for the 2. I think he's for real, and I don't see a reason to think Beal will become better than him. Still, I'd rather trade Beal for multiple young players or for a star big.

My guess is most teams won't bid on Middleton, because they figure the Bucks will match any offer. I think he ends up getting in the 4/48 neighborhood.

[WashWiz54]

Khris Middleton and Kim English were the two guys I loved projected to go in the second in the '12 draft. Detroit snagged them both. Obviously I was wrong on English but Middleton has sure proven himself.

Saying that.... there is no realistic way of us getting him. Milwaukee fans have said all year he is clearly their best player.

[hands11]

Been watching the young man over time. Was real interesting when they got Greek Freak and he was coming off the bench after being a start there. But I never saw that MIL needed to move him and they didn't. Given what they have, will they spend a boat load to keep him ? Well I suspect they will want to control him as an asset so most likely yes. They have to cap room to do it.

[nate33]

It's not exactly a revelation that Khris Middleton is a good player who is better than Beal. That doesn't mean we can just will him to be on our team though. That ship sailed on draft day. If we want Middleton now, it'll cost us more than he's worth.

[Dat2U]

The devaluing of Beal is a little ridiculous. Yes mid range game is putrid but just like Wall in years 2 & 3, he's making incremental improvements each year that aren't really noticeable unless your really watching closely. His handle has gotten a great deal better from his rookie year. He is making progress in regards to his decision making, specifically in P&R situations. His defense has been better in stretches albeit not consistently. Moreso, he just needs to stay healthy, gain confidence & the coaching staff could do a much better job of putting him in positions to suceed than forcing him to create mid range shots off the dribble because coach Witt wants guys to take the first open shot available.

[AWIZZINGBULLET]

He's everything we hoped Brad would be his first few seasons in the league. I'd easily trade Brad for assets and offer Middleton a max if thats what it took. He's absolutely in line to become an all-star, he checks every metric. I haven't watched him as much lately, but the few times I see him I think, "damn he reminds me of Kobe", just in terms of that off the dribble, elevated jumper that goes down. You don't see it too often from two guards these days.

He's got size, 6'7

He's a better shooter than Brad. 44% FG as a rook. 48% FG in his third year with 44% from deep on similar attempts as Brad. He's shot over 40% from deep since his sophmore season. More proof that he's an elite shooter? 84% FT was his worst mark of his career. He's shooting 85% right now.

He'll be 24 this summer.

He could probably play SF with that size, but I'm not sure how good he is defensively. Advanced stats look good in terms of DRTG, but you know you can only look so much into that stat.

I'm not down with 'stealing' a player that Grunfeld should've and could've easily drafted.

Wizards org. deserves to constantly look back at draft night and the second round players who pan out that they didn't select, since it doesn't want to make Grunfeld pay for his stupid draft decisions.

A few folks in here were calling for Middleton to be drafted that year, I was one of them.

[Ruzious]

The devaluing of Beal is a little ridiculous. Yes mid range game is putrid but just like Wall in years 2 & 3, he's making incremental improvements each year that aren't really noticeable unless your really watching closely. His handle has gotten a great deal better from his rookie year. He is making progress in regards to his decision making, specifically in P&R situations. His defense has been better in stretches albeit not consistently. Moreso, he just needs to stay healthy, gain confidence & the coaching staff could do a much better job of putting him in positions to suceed than forcing him to create mid range shots off the dribble because coach Witt wants guys to take the first open shot available.

It's not a matter of devaluing Beal; it's a matter of him being over-valued - which is something to take advantage of. Watch how quickly Middleton releases his shot from the time the ball gets to him, and compare that to how long it takes Beal to release his shot. If Beal had a quicker release, he'd get more clean 3 point attempts. It's not a coaching decision to make him have a slower release than the more prolific 3 point shooters in the NBA. That's also a big contributor to his poor 2 point jumpshots. Then again, he's also simply missed a lot of open jumpers because he doesn't consistently set his feet.

[Dark Faze]

its not like i dont want Beal to be good, but just like with Wall when he entered his third year and we started talking contract extensions I knew that unless he showed improvement he'd be a bust...and he went out there and really improved.

Beal simply hasn't. He's had some improvement in his handle, but his stats aren't showing any sign of improvement. The eye test agrees with that.

[Dat2U]

its not like i dont want Beal to be good, but just like with Wall when he entered his third year and we started talking contract extensions I knew that unless he showed improvement he'd be a bust...and he went out there and really improved.

Beal simply hasn't. He's had some improvement in his handle, but his stats aren't showing any sign of improvement. The eye test agrees with that.

I guess you forgot the disappointment that engulfed Wall's 3rd year... and well into his 4th. Folks were saying the same thing about Wall that their saying about Beal now... he hadn't improved, possibly even regressed... he is what he is and we should trade him instead of paying him.

[hands11]

its not like i dont want Beal to be good, but just like with Wall when he entered his third year and we started talking contract extensions I knew that unless he showed improvement he'd be a bust...and he went out there and really improved.

Beal simply hasn't. He's had some improvement in his handle, but his stats aren't showing any sign of improvement. The eye test agrees with that.

Isn't this the same conversation that was going on when Wall got his max. A good part of the board was against it.

Beal is improving.. Look at this shooting by distance numbers.

He just hasn't put it all together yet. He is shooting more shots at the rim now and a higher percentage. Less long 2s.
His 16 to less then 3 numbers are down from .361 to .275 . lowest in his career.

And as of the last two games, he tightened up his footwork were he isn't doing the hop skip when he catches it. I saw him fix this once before earlier this year and then it fell apart again. Now he fixed it again. Lets hope it stays this way. Something I have had a big issue with regarding him. His floppy footwork caused him to get into he moves to slowly.

Also, Beal does best when he gets a good string of games together without missing any. He is still just 21. Still learning. Still adjusting.

They ask a lot of him. They keep pushing him to do new things. They are asking him to drive more now. Just hasn't put it all together yet.

Keep in mind for this year, a few things.

Randy hosed the offense. Even Gortat was affected. Now they are getting it straight and we see it in these big scoring quarters and halves.

Beal started the year injured and missed time this summer. Like Wall did at one point a few years ago.

Then Beal just missed several games again. Just getting back in the swing.

So he can still wrap this season up on a high note and continue his year or year progression.

But what will matter most is how he does in the playoffs. Last year he did really well.

[nate33]

its not like i dont want Beal to be good, but just like with Wall when he entered his third year and we started talking contract extensions I knew that unless he showed improvement he'd be a bust...and he went out there and really improved.

Beal simply hasn't. He's had some improvement in his handle, but his stats aren't showing any sign of improvement. The eye test agrees with that.

I guess you forgot the disappointment that engulfed Wall's 3rd year... and well into his 4th. Folks were saying the same thing about Wall that their saying about Beal now... he hadn't improved, possibly even regressed... he is what he is and we should trade him instead of paying him.

I don't think that analogy holds.

Wall was mediocre his first year with a PER of 15.8, an ORtg of 100, and a WS/48 of .41
He improved modestly in his second year with a PER of 17.7, an ORtg of 100, and a WS/48 of .71

He was injured for most of the offseason and the start of his third season. When he first started playing again in January, things looked dicey. After a month-and-a-half, his PER was 16 and his ORtg was 95. Some people started to panic then, but only the really impatient types. I think most of us wanted to wait and see if he'd turn a corner after working off the rust and regaining confidence in his knee. It didn't take long. After playing 23 bad games in January and February, he blew up in March and looked like a superstar.

By the end of the season, his third year numbers incorporated a PER of 20.8, an ORtg of 105, and a WS/48 of .134. And more importantly, he showed an extended, 2-month stretch where he looked like a legit top 10 player in the league.

If you look at Wall's numbers on a year-by-year basis, there was steady progress in each of his 3 seasons. He seems to have plateaued a bit in his 4th and 5th year, but at least he is plateauing at an All-Star level.

Beal has shown none of this progress. Statistically, he hasn't improved an iota:
1st year: PER 13.6, ORtg 102, WS/48 .082
2nd year: PER 14.3, ORtg 103, WS/48 .076
3rd year: PER 13.5, ORtg 101, WS/48 .081

He has never looked like anything more than a "meh" player except during the 2nd half of his rookie season when he couldn't miss from 3-point range. I'd like to believe that much of his stagnation can be blamed on Wittman's offensive system, but that may be wishful thinking.

He is still very young, so one would expect some modest improvement going forward, but that's already baked into his value. His production suggests he is merely a Courtney Lee or a Brandon Rush caliber player. A nobody. If his trade value is considerably above that, then we should definitely explore trade possibilities. If nothing else, I'm uncomfortable with Beal becoming a free agent when the whole league has practically unlimited cap room. I don't want to pay the next Courtney Lee $15M a year.

[Dark Faze]

That was Walls breakout year, the year he showed he could change speeds and play a half court game. His first two years he couldn't run a half course offense for anything and only played at one speed. And his command of the half court only improved in year 4.

Beal made a nice jump from year 1 to year 2 in terms of ball handling and play making, along with showing up in the playoffs, but he's done nothing at all this season. He shouldn't be compared to Wall, who delivered.

[hands11]

That was Walls breakout year, the year he showed he could change speeds and play a half court game. His first two years he couldn't run a half course offense for anything and only played at one speed. And his command of the half court only improved in year 4.

Beal made a nice jump from year 1 to year 2 in terms of ball handling and play making, along with showing up in the playoffs, but he's done nothing at all this season. He shouldn't be compared to Wall, who delivered.

After missing time this summer and to start the year, after 6 games leading into December.. here is what he did.

Dec he shot .471 from 3 on 4.4 attempts.
Jan he shot .432 from 3 on 4.4 attempts

Feb..he missed from Thu 2/5 to Sat 2/28. Pretty much the entire month.

March. he played the last game of Feb and the first two in March. Then missed a game and now has 2 games under his belt. That not enough for him to get back in a grove like he was in during DEC and JAN.

He has missed 18 games this year.
NBA has played 65 this year.
Beal played 47 where he played well then went out injured again. That including the 6 games to get ramped up and a few in his return

17 to go. That's 36% of his number still to go. Keep that in mind.

Considering his Dec and Jan numbers TS% .533 over 33 games, keep in mind how much more heavily 17 games is going to get weighted in his numbers. He is currently TS% .514

So I'm not over reacting after missing all that time, playing 3 games, missing another and then playing 2 more. He could easily find his grove in the next couple games and get back to his DEC/JAN mode and end the year with a career high TS%

So we have to wait this out to see if he shows improvement in this TS and WS48 numbers. He is already showing it in his shot selection.

Looking forward to seeing him break out again in the next few games.