Wizards vs. Raptors - Preview

[ACNBATORONTO]

Raptors vs. Wizards

This isn't a preview for a Harry Potter — Jurassic Park crossover, Toronto and Washington are set to face off in the first round of the NBA playoffs. Two of the most talented backcourts in the league will battle to prove to the elite teams that they are worthy opponents.


Washington Wizards

Weaknesses

The Wizards’ troubles began because of sloppy offensive execution and terrible shooting. After the all-star break Washington shot an abysmal 33.5% from long range which forced them to take 2 point shots 78% of the time. When you account this into their 44% field goal percentage it is worse than it appears. Even with the talented front line of Marcin Gortat and Nene the Wiz rank dead last since all-star weekend in 2nd chance points. Despite Marcin’s activity on the defensive glass he can’t seem to get it going offensively, the Wizards rank in the middle of the pack in points in the paint.

Washington moves the ball well as 63% of their field goals are assisted but this comes with a price as they turn it over 15 times a game. Wall averages 3.8 turnovers a game with a 27% usage rate, but these giveaways aren’t purely John’s fault. The Wizards seem lackadaisical at times setting weak screens and waiting for the ball to get to them instead of cutting towards it giving opponents time to intercept. Improved awareness and effort will come with playoff intensity but it’s not a switch you can turn on and off whenever it is convenient.

Washington’s perimeter bench rotation is much to be desired and Toronto should look to abuse this distinct advantage. Ramon Sessions is a decent rotation player but doesn't replace the leadership or stability of Andre Miller while Garrett Temple has the size and strength to be a competent on ball defender but doesn't contribute in many other ways.


Strengths

Washington plays at a decent pace of 96.5 which helps their inefficient offense by offering more opportunities to score. Their scoring and shot attempts are well distributed which helps with team chemistry. When players know they will get the ball if they make the right play it inspires them to make that hard cut or run the floor in transition. Ball movement is contagious. Paul Pierce provides a calming stability to the rotation and an alternate ballhandler in key situations.

Since the all-star break the Wizards have forced teams to shoot 43% from the field and 34.5% from distance while allowing 98 points per game. Despite not creating many turnovers the Wizards average 17 fast break points per game since the all star break. These points don’t come from turnovers but more often outlet passes off of defensive rebounds or dead ball situations. John Wall is fast enough that he can turn almost any play into a transition scoring opportunity. Wall’s length and strength should challenge Lowry’s offensive ability and John should be aggressive but not gamble as he has had trouble with Lowry in the past. Most of Washington’s rotation can guard in isolation preventing dribble breakdowns giving their defence a large advantage over Toronto’s.

The Wizards’ front court does an excellent job protecting the lane allowing only 39 points in the paint per game. Marcin Gortat has the length and athleticism to contest shots at the rim but also the quickness to hedge on screen and rolls while getting back to his man in time. Kevin Seraphin, Kris Humphries and Drew Gooden make up Washington’s back up front court and provide physicality and energy off the bench. Seraphin and Humphries get after it on the glass and somehow Gooden still provides some offence and rebounding off the bench.

Keys to Success

John Wall is the most dynamic player on either roster and the most likely to take the fate of the game into his own hands. In the past he has struggled to keep Lowry in front of him, which is strange when you look at the size and quickness of both players, but Kyle has had his number. Bradley Beal needs to shoot well in this series as he is one of the only Wizards that is capable of providing the spacing that the team needs to be successful. The Wizards will need sharp offensive execution to cut down on turnovers as they generally have a low field goal percentage. Efficiency with every possession will be essential.

Toronto Raptors

Weaknesses

Toronto has been a weak defensive team all season but earlier on the offence was potent enough to mask it. Since the all-star break teams have shot 46% from the field while earning 23 assists per game against the Raptors. This means that Toronto allows opponents to move the ball freely and efficiently around the perimeter. Lowry gets up on defenders and forces them to make difficult decisions but the rest of the Raptors’ perimeter defenders are too focused on not getting beat off the dribble to play the passing lanes. This is for good reason though as Toronto’s bench gives up far too much dribble penetration which comprises the integrity of the defence.

It is extremely difficult for the Raptors to combine solid rotations and defensive rebounding, particularly in clutch situations (last 5 minutes/overtime of a game within 5 points or less) where opponents grab 30.5% of the Raptors’ defensive rebounds. As we saw in the 2013 NBA finals a late game offensive rebound can be the difference between a win and a loss.

Shot selection and ball movement have been an ongoing and controversial issue for the Raptors throughout the course of the season. 20.5% of three point field goals and 45% of all field goals go unassisted for the Raptors which showcases the amount of isolation or off the dribble shots the team takes. Having so many players who can shoot off the dribble or play in isolation is a blessing and a curse for the Raptors. If key players like DeMar or Kyle are shooting poorly the Raptors have different options to pick up the slack. At the same time when players feel like they haven’t contributed much in a specific game they can pull the trigger too quickly, hurting ball movement and influencing others to play the same way. Toronto must bring back the smoothness and fluidity of the early season to help earn easy shots though and this has started to happen over recent weeks.


Strengths

Even with sometimes questionable shot selection the Raptors’ offence is far superior to Washington’s. Toronto has a ton of weapons to choose from and a wide array of effective three point shooters to help spread the floor for DeMar DeRozan. In March and April DeMar is averaging 24 points per game shooting 45% from the floor and 39% from three, extremely efficient in comparison to his past. His time spent on the bench with the coaches during his injury earlier this season has helped him improve his awareness and anticipation, especially his ability to find his teammates.

Vasquez averaged 14 points per game against the Wizard last season and Lou Williams scored 20 a game this season. It’s clear that the Wizards’ bench can’t compete with Toronto’s and the Raptors need to continue to exploit this advantage.

Lowry’s absence has forced other perimeter players to embrace roles as distributors which will definitely benefit the Raptors in the long run. Toronto excels in taking care of the basketball committing only 13 turnovers per game but this number is also tied to their slow pace. Tyler Hansbrough has played exceptionally well during Amir Johnson’s absence, his relentless will and energy fuels the team and he should see key playing time during the series.

Jonas Valanciunas averages 8.3 shot attempts per game shooting 56% and should see more some touches now that he has proven he can stay on the court for extended periods of time without fouling. Jonas has improved his ability to pass out of the post which has increased his teammates and coaches trust in him. This has given him more opportunities lately but as defence tightens in the playoffs his offensive contribution will be even more important.

Keys to Success

Paul Pierce ruined the Raptors’ playoff dreams last post-season and many fans are probably still salty about that block on Lowry. Though Ross will most likely start at small forward he isn't involved enough offensively to make Pierce a liability. James Johnson should match up with Pierce at key points and use his size and strength to take “The Truth” to the basket. Leaving Pierce on the floor without abusing his speed and age would be a big mistake for Toronto. Terrence Ross has improved over the past month and needs to continue to find ways to be effective and shoot the ball with confidence. Ross plays much better defensively when he is engaged on offence. Toronto needs to use team defence to contain John Wall and Washington’s other perimeter players from getting deep into the paint. The Wizards’ halfcourt offense is stagnant so make them earn their buckets instead of allowing them to drive and kick for easy jump shots.


Marcin Gortat and Valanciunas both aggressively fight for position in the paint which could cause early foul trouble for either player. If one of these European centers can figure out how to stay on the floor in late game situations it would be a defining factor in the series.

Despite the Raptors’ 6–1 record against Washington over the past two season this should be a long, gritty series with the Raptors being slightly favoured. Hopefully the Matt Devlin — Wale rivalry is renewed for some bonus entertainment.

Raptors 4-3. Cruisin in the Atl...

[dckingsfan]

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