2016 Offseason Thread -- Not (just) #KD2DC

[dckingsfan]

That isn't a 3 seed team, not even close.

Wall / Augustin
Beal / Sato
Otto / Oubre
Morris / Tolliver
Gortat / Aldrich (Or Noah)

Is a 6-10 seed. If that is what we have to do, we are better off blowing it up.

Cleveland, Toronto, Boston, Indiana and Detroit will all definitely be better than that team.

[Dat2U]

Again, assuming Horford, Whiteside, and KD all sign elsewhere, then 2018 has to be the focus.
While 2017 is the Greatest FA class ever, we cant afford to surround Wall, Beal, and Co with a bunch of 1 year contracts again.
And while 2018 will have less talent, the salary cap explosion will have stopped at about 110M and there wont be near as much money around as there is in the 2016 and 2017 offseasons.

So here is the mission, Find the best 2 year deals 25M in cap space can buy (We have 32M, but subtract 7 for Sato and cap holds)...

Backup Centers:
Noah - Who the hell knows now
Nene - In shape, he's an elite backup 5
Mozgov - Still productive despite reduced minutes last year.
Cole Aldrich - Huge fan, but he had a really good year and is about to turn 28. He'll get 3 years probably
Jordan Hill - Might be a buy low if Mahinmi outshines him
Mahinmi - Great year last year, but has been terrible offensively 2 of the 3 years before last. Regression?

Stretch 4:
Marvin Williams - Same boat as Deng, my top choice. He's played 1/3 less career minutes and was excellent last year.
Deng - Great compliment to Morris, old enough to take 2 year deal.
Tolliver - Has been constantly good the last 3 years playing PF. 37.8% 3Pt shooter

Backup Pg / Other:
Brandon Jennings - Ehhh
Eric Gordon - Intriguing, but not needed with Beal, Sato, and McClellan.
Bayless
Augustin
Sessions


I throw most of my money at Williams or Deng. If they hesitate, I sign Tolliver and throw the money to Noah or Aldrich. Sign whichever of Bayless, Augustin, or Sessions will sign the best deal.

Wall / Augustin
Beal / Sato
Otto / Oubre
Morris / Tolliver
Gortat / Aldrich (Or Noah)

The names dont excite you, but there are a lot of skill sets littered in there that could be troublesome in the East. Then after 2 years of 3-5th seed appearances, you make your splash in 2018...
Obviously this assumes that Wall, Beal, Otto, etc. all improve somewhat.

Building a quality bench makes sense... I don't disagree with too much other than signing of Augustin who is really just a smaller version of Juan Dixon in my opinion. A break-glass-in-case-of-emergency type who gets hot every 10 games or so.

I like Seth Curry instead... a better shooter and willing passer. I think he'd complement the ball skills of Satoransky rather nicely and he probably won't break the bank like a Jennings, Gordon or Delladedova would.

I thought Tolliver would be a nice under the radar signing two years ago... but since I consider Markieff the weak link in the starting group, I'd want a strong backup behind him. My favorite name is Amir Johnson if Boston doesn't guarantee his deal. Loul Deng would be my 2nd choice. Marvin Williams had a great year but I could see regression from him. This past season looks like an outlier plus he likely expects to start not come off the bench. Jared Dudley is my 3rd choice. Brandon Bass is my 4th choice.

I love the idea of Aldrich at C. I think he's been productive, a very good defender and really under the radar. I'd give him a 4 yr deal if the price is right. Boban Marjanovic is another under the radar favorite of mine. He's restricted but I'm not sure how the Spurs are able to keep him if they are going after Durant, Conley & Horford as well. Boban is huge and has excellent skill. He's fun to watch

[pcbothwel]

That isn't a 3 seed team, not even close.

Wall / Augustin
Beal / Sato
Otto / Oubre
Morris / Tolliver
Gortat / Aldrich (Or Noah)

Is a 6-10 seed. If that is what we have to do, we are better off blowing it up.

Cleveland, Toronto, Boston, Indiana and Detroit will all definitely be better than that team.

It is a 3-5 seed under the assumption that
1) Wall, Beal, Otto, and Oubre improve under Brooks and we find a sweet spot with our offensive pace that doesnt jeopardize defense. Brooks even made the point in a recent interview about how they didnt get to the line enough last year and that will be an emphasis going forward. This gives our D time to set up coming off the FT.

2) The Cavs, Celtics, and Pacers will be good. But the Raptors are losing Derozan and Biyumbo. The Heat are losing Deng, Bosh, probably Whiteside, and Wade is 34. The Hawks have lost Teague and probably Horford.

Also, don't discount the loss of Vogel to the Pacers. McMillan has proven to be a pretty bad coach that plays with a SLOW pace.
The Magic, Bucks and Knicks will probably be better, but not 10 wins better.
The Hornets played way over their heads and are due for at least some regression.

[payitforward]

...here is the mission, Find the best 2 year deals 25M in cap space can buy (We have 32M, but subtract 7 for Sato and cap holds)... I throw most of my money at Williams or Deng. If they hesitate, I sign Tolliver and throw the money to Noah or Aldrich. Sign whichever of Bayless, Augustin, or Sessions will sign the best deal.

Wall / Augustin
Beal / Sato
Otto / Oubre
Morris / Tolliver
Gortat / Aldrich (Or Noah)

...Then after 2 years of 3-5th seed appearances, you make your splash in 2018... Obviously this assumes that Wall, Beal, Otto, etc. all improve somewhat.

This is interesting; I'd like to suggest a few changes -- tell me what you think.

First off I'd like to lean towards the younger guys and try to control them for 3 years rather than 2.

Second, my choices at 4 and 5 would be a) Quincy Acy (he's better than Tolliver, very good in fact -- especially for a backup -- and he's age appropriate for our core players), and b) Cole Aldrich (he's a little older, but he's only played 2800 NBA minutes; still age appropriate). Both these guys are UFAs; they have been proven to be productive, I think they'd be available at reasonable cost and have a great chance to wind up being real bargains, and I'd like to sew them up for as much of their prime years as is reasonable. As well, if he's available at a veteran minimum, I want to keep Hickson. Only 27 and he can be quite a productive journeyman.

Third -- At the 1 I'd prefer Sessions over Augustin; but $$$ would be an issue in this case. I'd also like one more, younger kid: Troy Daniels played well for Charlotte, as did Tim Frazier for the Pelicans. Both in limited minutes. They are restricted, and I wouldn't be interested in spending a lot for one of them, but I'd have my eye on them. Donald Sloan, who isn't as young, is unrestricted and would be another option if cheap. I also like T.J. McConnell (a lot) but he'd have to come in a trade w/ Philly -- maybe as part of a Beal deal if that were to happen.

Finally -- I'd want to sign Seth Curry at the 2. He'll be cheap; definitely sign him for 2 years plus a team option. I'd also like Tyler Johnson, but I don't think Miami is letting him go, so forget that.

So, then, assuming Beal is likely to stay, lets say it wound up being

PG - Wall / Augustin / (Frazier/Daniels/Sloan)
SG - Beal / Sato / Seth Curry
SF - Porter / Oubre / (McClellan? -- I'd hope so)
PF - Morris / Acy (except it wouldn't be long before Acy was the starter, I believe)
C - Gortat / Aldrich / Hickson

That team would make the playoffs in the East, I believe.

Cost of the above? Augustin, Sloan, Curry, McClellan and Hickson wouldn't add up to more than $6-7m combined. I don't have much of a fix on what Acy might cost, but could it be much more than $4m? I can't see it. How about Aldrich? Will he get more than @ $7m? In any case, it looks quite possible to stay under $20m.

And if a some of the young guys pan out in the next couple of years, we'd have no boat anchors. The opposite, in fact; they become tradable assets -- they wouldn't get in the way of clearing cap room for a superstar if there was one who wanted to play here.

They'd also give us the flexibility to make the kinds of trades (e.g. for picks rather than players) that push cost into the future rather than bearing them now. This is how good franchises operate. We've seen just recently how hamstrung you get if you have nothing to trade.

So... what do you think?

[80sballboy]

http://www.todaysfastbreak.com/nba-east/washington-wizards/3-potential-back-point-guard-targets-wizards/?utm_campaign=Contact+SNS+For+More+Referrer&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=snsanalytics

I forgot Curry is restricted.

[80sballboy]

Not making a new thread for Eric Waters but I think it's a good move.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/CSNWizards/status/746771022175678464[/tweet]

[payitforward]

I forgot Curry is restricted.

I don't think that's accurate. Checked a couple of source, and both show him as unrestricted.

[stevemcqueen1]

I forgot Curry is restricted.

I don't think that's accurate. Checked a couple of source, and both show him as unrestricted.

I think you're right. He was undrafted, so he shouldn't have gotten a fully guaranteed rookie contract with options for years three and four that lead to restricted free agency if picked up.

[80sballboy]

I forgot Curry is restricted.

I don't think that's accurate. Checked a couple of source, and both show him as unrestricted.

Curry would be trickier for the Wizards to land since he is a restricted free agent. With that being said, the Sacramento Kings have proven to be one of the most unpredictable organizations in the league, so allowing another team to swoop Curry out from under them wouldn’t be a surprise.

The author of the article could be wrong.

[AFM]

PIF, 80s, etc:

who CARES?

who cares about seth curry?


I read this board 20 times a day at least because I enjoy reading your theories of possible offseason acquistions

but who CARES???????


This team is so far from being good its scary. Seth curry or some 2nd round pick we should have bought, or robert carter or...whoever... doesnt change anything. We f*cked up the rebuild. Big time. The pile of schiet is too high. We have to rebuild again.

We have two options. Sign a top 5 player (llike CLE did with Lebron) or rebuild.

Otherwise we are a 10th seed team, regardless of whatever bum we sign this offseason.

[80sballboy]

PIF, 80s, etc:

who CARES?

who cares about seth curry?


I read this board 20 times a day at least because I enjoy reading your theories of possible offseason acquistions

but who CARES???????


This team is so far from being good its scary. Seth curry or some 2nd round pick we should have bought, or robert carter or...whoever... doesnt change anything. We f*cked up the rebuild. Big time. The pile of schiet is too high. We have to rebuild again.

We have two options. Sign a top 5 player (llike CLE did with Lebron) or rebuild.

Otherwise we are a 10th seed team, regardless of whatever bum we sign this offseason.

Seth Curry might not mean shi-t to you but how are we getting LeBron or any top-5 player? He only went back to Cleveland because that's his hometown team and he probably felt he owed them for leaving. KD doesn't want to deal with D.C., whether we were good or mediocre.

We can get better without getting a top five player and we'll finish a lot higher than 10th if we have some ingenuity (and some luck with health). A guy like Curry is just a piece of the puzzle. This might be the biggest offseason in the history of our franchise and I'm not completely pessimistic like most people are just because we were .500 and didn't have a draft pick to improve our team. Maybe Oubre takes a huge step up, we add an athletic big man and get high quality free agent that will send Morris or even Porter to the bench.

[payitforward]

...who CARES?

...This team is so far from being good its scary. Seth curry or...whoever... doesnt change anything. ...We have two options. Sign a top 5 player (llike CLE did with Lebron) or rebuild.

Otherwise we are a 10th seed team, regardless of whatever bum we sign this offseason.

The first is not an option -- once you devolve your roster to the point where you have only 6 players, 2 of whom are a raw prospect and a non-factor, how can you expect anyone great to view it as a destination? No top player is coming here any time soon.

That said, the roster I put together has some possibility of changing that situation. Acy, Aldrich & Curry can all be solid, above average NBA players, so that if Porter continues to develop as I project him to, and if Oubre actualizes all that athletic potential by becoming as good as he can be, and if Sato does come over and is as good as people here are dreaming of, and if we make a couple of good picks next year... why then, if all that, we'll be in a position to make something of the Washington Wizards.

The unstated first step of course is to fire Ernie. He would never have the imagination to follow a plan like this. We'll be acquiring some mediocrity like Green or Anderson in the last 1/3 of his career, whereupon Ernie will say that we got our "max player," and that Satoransky should be thought of as "our R1 pick this year -- only better," and then when we aren't any good he'll find some way to blame bad luck.

[dckingsfan]

That isn't a 3 seed team, not even close.

Wall / Augustin
Beal / Sato
Otto / Oubre
Morris / Tolliver
Gortat / Aldrich (Or Noah)

Is a 6-10 seed. If that is what we have to do, we are better off blowing it up.

Cleveland, Toronto, Boston, Indiana and Detroit will all definitely be better than that team.

It is a 3-5 seed under the assumption that
1) Wall, Beal, Otto, and Oubre improve under Brooks and we find a sweet spot with our offensive pace that doesnt jeopardize defense. Brooks even made the point in a recent interview about how they didnt get to the line enough last year and that will be an emphasis going forward. This gives our D time to set up coming off the FT.

2) The Cavs, Celtics, and Pacers will be good. But the Raptors are losing Derozan and Biyumbo. The Heat are losing Deng, Bosh, probably Whiteside, and Wade is 34. The Hawks have lost Teague and probably Horford.

Also, don't discount the loss of Vogel to the Pacers. McMillan has proven to be a pretty bad coach that plays with a SLOW pace.
The Magic, Bucks and Knicks will probably be better, but not 10 wins better.
The Hornets played way over their heads and are due for at least some regression.

Yeah, I just don't see it...

1) Wall is coming off surgery. Beal is Beal - don't look for major improvements - he has flatlined since being a rookie. I think Otto is going to emerge as our best player (as Wall takes a step back). I think Oubre will improve - just not enough to make a difference (this season). In the mean time we will continue our FC woes, I think we will go back to struggling with our backup PG.

2) Yes to Cleveland, Detroit, Boston and Indiana + DeRozan focused on new Raptors deal, "DeMar DeRozan, arguably the top shooting guard who could hit the free-agent market, is focused on re-signing with the Raptors, a source said." That still tops out this team at the 5th seed, IMO. And there is no guarantee that we will be much more than a .500 team next year.

[dckingsfan]

PIF - I could see the team you assembled getting to the playoffs unless 3 other teams in the East have really solid off-seasons. Naturally, I don't think EG could assemble that team.

[nuposse04]

I'm probably in the minority of people who would max horford. Think he is a very good player and balance the roster, supplant Morris and give you some center minutes. I think he still has 3 very good years in him.

If not him I'm still interested in guys like T. Jones and Andrew Nicholson... Nicholson is probably more attainable. I'm fairly content with the SFs on the roster plus maybe Anderson on a cheap deal. If Tomas doesn't come over then Jabari Brown is still a name I'd look at in summer camp if possible.

Basically if they can't max horford, Whiteside or biyombo (altho I doubt he deserves it anyways) then don't max anyone at all.

Find cheap depth and try again next season, hopefully with a GM with an eye for talent... Unfortunately EG will do everything in his power to build a treadmill roster. We actually have to hope Ted interferes. Which is sick...


Also I think ochefu might be able to get minutes this season.

[pcbothwel]

Wall / Augustin
Beal / Sato
Otto / Oubre
Morris / Tolliver
Gortat / Aldrich (Or Noah)

Is a 6-10 seed. If that is what we have to do, we are better off blowing it up.

Cleveland, Toronto, Boston, Indiana and Detroit will all definitely be better than that team.

It is a 3-5 seed under the assumption that
1) Wall, Beal, Otto, and Oubre improve under Brooks and we find a sweet spot with our offensive pace that doesnt jeopardize defense. Brooks even made the point in a recent interview about how they didnt get to the line enough last year and that will be an emphasis going forward. This gives our D time to set up coming off the FT.

2) The Cavs, Celtics, and Pacers will be good. But the Raptors are losing Derozan and Biyumbo. The Heat are losing Deng, Bosh, probably Whiteside, and Wade is 34. The Hawks have lost Teague and probably Horford.

Also, don't discount the loss of Vogel to the Pacers. McMillan has proven to be a pretty bad coach that plays with a SLOW pace.
The Magic, Bucks and Knicks will probably be better, but not 10 wins better.
The Hornets played way over their heads and are due for at least some regression.

Yeah, I just don't see it...

1) Wall is coming off surgery. Beal is Beal - don't look for major improvements - he has flatlined since being a rookie. I think Otto is going to emerge as our best player (as Wall takes a step back). I think Oubre will improve - just not enough to make a difference (this season). In the mean time we will continue our FC woes, I think we will go back to struggling with our backup PG.

2) Yes to Cleveland, Detroit, Boston and Indiana + DeRozan focused on new Raptors deal, "DeMar DeRozan, arguably the top shooting guard who could hit the free-agent market, is focused on re-signing with the Raptors, a source said." That still tops out this team at the 5th seed, IMO. And there is no guarantee that we will be much more than a .500 team next year.

We can go back and forth between whether they would be a 3rd or 8th seed. But the point of my original post was to establish a competitive team that would establish whether Wall, Beal, Otto, and Oubre are a core to build around. If they are, then we are players in the 2018 FA pool. If not, then we trade Wall and Beal and rebuild.

Again, the point was not be a ECF contender as much as establish a winning culture with Brooks so we can have our final evaluation of our current core.

[bsilver]

Agree with AFM about the 3rd tier free agents being discussed not making much difference.
Don't agree about blowing up the team. Most teams that start over just end up sucking for a long time. Who wants to watch our version of the Sixers for the next 5 years?

One player that I haven't seen mentioned much is Biyombo. Toronto would like to keep him, but after signing Derozan, there may not be money available. Biyombo will probably get around 12M/year, but who knows at this point.
He would fit in well here, addressing our needs for better defense and rebounding. He's one of the better defenders in the league. We need backups at C and PF. We could easily give him the 30+ minutes of playing time he would like. I wouldn't really even call him a backup since I think he's as good or better than Gortat or Morris.
He's only 23 so may still be improving, especially on the offensive end. As Gortat ages, he would become the starter. He's always been a leader and high character guy - also positives.
Biyombo wouldn't make us a championship contender, but I think the potential is there for him to make a big impact, improving us to the top 4 in the East. If nothing else, at least we could go back to being one of the best defensive teams in the league.

[pineappleheadindc]

PIF, 80s, etc:

who CARES?

who cares about seth curry?


I read this board 20 times a day at least because I enjoy reading your theories of possible offseason acquistions

but who CARES???????


This team is so far from being good its scary. Seth curry or some 2nd round pick we should have bought, or robert carter or...whoever... doesnt change anything. We f*cked up the rebuild. Big time. The pile of schiet is too high. We have to rebuild again.

We have two options. Sign a top 5 player (llike CLE did with Lebron) or rebuild.

Otherwise we are a 10th seed team, regardless of whatever bum we sign this offseason.

Grunfeld proves doubters wrong!

#GPDW

[Dat2U]

I don't understand the idea of rebuilding when your core is already young. Wall is not an old dude, he's just entering his best years. It's also the first time that Wall, Beal, Porter etc will be playing for a legitimate head coach. I know people want to say Wittman was an average head coach but I think that's a very generous analysis of his abilities. I viewed him as one of the poorest coaches in the game. You could make a case that maybe Byron Scott or Mo Cheeks (when he coached) were nearly as bad but he was a stubborn man, with an outdated philosophy & an inability/unwillingness to adjust to situations in a timely manner. I also think he was piss poor in putting guys in their best positions to succeed. And it didn't help that his coaching staff was widely regarded as one of the weakest in league so firing & replacing him with an assistant during the regular season wasn't even an option.

You tank in the hopes of getting a guy like Wall. You dump salaries in hopes of having $30+ mil in cap room. We aren't in a terrible position. The roster is bare bones with no bad contracts (at least until mid-July). We honestly don't need to tank & rebuild. We need a savvy GM to build off what's already there and add a key piece or two.

[Wizardspride]

I don't understand the idea of rebuilding when your core is already young. Wall is not an old dude, he's just entering his best years. It's also the first time that Wall, Beal, Porter etc will be playing for a legitimate head coach. I know people want to say Wittman was an average head coach but I think that's a very generous analysis of his abilities. I viewed him as one of the poorest coaches in the game. You could make a case that maybe Byron Scott or Mo Cheeks (when he coached) were nearly as bad but he was a stubborn man, with an outdated philosophy & an inability/unwillingness to adjust to situations in a timely manner. I also think he was piss poor in putting guys in their best positions to succeed. And it didn't help that his coaching staff was widely regarded as one of the weakest in league so firing & replacing him with an assistant during the regular season wasn't even an option.

You tank in the hopes of getting a guy like Wall. You dump salaries in hopes of having $30+ mil in cap room. We aren't in a terrible position. The roster is bare bones with no bad contracts (at least until mid-July). We honestly don't need to tank & rebuild. We need a savvy GM to build off what's already there and add a key piece or two.

This.


I'm not an EG fan per se but the situation isn't as hopeless as some would leave you to believe.

Young team, with some talent, and ample cap space.