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Who will be better: Beal or Porter?

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Who will be better: Beal or Porter? 

Post#1 » by nate33 » Wed Nov 18, 2015 8:35 pm

This came up in the Otto Porter thread and I thought it might be an interesting topic for discussion.

I think Porter will pan out to be better than Beal.

Beal has always concerned me a bit because of his low FT rate and his low 2P%. During regular season, he always seems like a guy who can't impact the game unless his shot is falling (he admittedly, plays better in the playoffs but that could merely be a sample size fluke). I keep hoping that he'll develop the ability to draw fouls, but it really hasn't happened yet. It's not that he's soft - he definitely attacks the rim when warranted, it's just that he doesn't have the pump fakes and footwork of Wade, nor does he have the slithery body control of Demar DeRozan. Beal is aggressively looking for his shot more this season, and he's riding a hot streak from 3-point range to boost his TS%, but he's also boosted his turnover rate dramatically so that his ORtg remains mired in the 102 range. Basically, the advanced stats still say that he's not all that good. His WS/48 (0.77) is actually lower than his career average (0.80), and his VORP is just 0.1 (also below his career average).

Porter, on the other hand, is doing great in advanced metrics. His WS/48 is a very nice 1.40, and his ORtg is an exceptional 116 despite him being off from 3-point range all season. (He is shooting just .250 from 3P range after shooting .375 in the playoffs last year and .500 in the preseason this year.) His advanced numbers are so good because he is deadly from 2P range, he gets steals, and he doesn't turn the ball over. Despite the 3P shooting, his TS% is .605. If that 3-ball starts to fall at a .360 clip, his TS% should improve to about .630 or so, which is off the charts good for a wing player.

I also feel like Porter is just scratching the surface. Right now, he's getting most of his points in the flow of the offense, but every once in a while, he shows glimpses of being a very good primary ball-handler on the pick-and-roll. Porter has been the ball-handler on 11 pick-and-rolls this season, with a scoring percentage of .583. According to synergy, there are only 4 players in the league who have more pick-and-roll attempts while also having a higher scoring efficiency. Once they start incorporating Porter in the pick-and-roll more, his usage rate should increase.
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Re: Who will be better: Beal or Porter? 

Post#2 » by Illmatic12 » Wed Nov 18, 2015 8:45 pm

Nate I'll post what I said in the Porter thread here, since that's not the place for it.

Bottom line, I think you're overreacting to the SSS here. Beal HAS visibly improved, it will bear out over the course of the season.


I understand the statistical approach you're taking, but I kind of take that with a grain of salt when discussing young, developing players.

Imo, Beal is still growing into his body and game moreso than Otto at this point in time. You can say he's in his 4th season as a starter, but 1) he's missed some developmental time due to injuries and 2) he's still the same age as OP and as old as many prospects. Because Porter is a physically bigger player, he has a more clear path towards what he can/should do on the court to be effective. Otto is going to reach his peak before Brad - we already see a pretty clear facsimile of what type of wing player he'd be in his prime.

But Beal is a smaller player, who's success will come through repetition, craftiness, and subtle technique - essentially through the type of skills that need to be developed over a longer time frame. His game and role will continue to evolve as he evolves individually, and I don't see that development peaking for another 3-4 years at least.

I'm not going crazy over Beal's hot shooting start like everyone else - this isn't what his game is going to look like moving forward, he's simply taking a lot of jumpshots and hitting them at an unsustainable rate. I expect that as the season goes on, his game will start to reflect the things he said he was working on over the summer. This is a good read about what his trainer is trying to do with him:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2570348-inside-the-most-important-summer-of-bradley-beals-life

Beal has visibly improved on everything he talked about. If you like, I can show you clips of more explosive finishes at the rim and improved PnR ballhandling moves that he wasn't doing before, and improved shooting off the dribble. I expect those to bear out in his game as the season progresses, and his FTr will go up as the jumpshot frequency goes down. If Beal develops into what I expect him to (essentially, a 6'5 SG version of Damian Lillard with good defense) I think he'll be a more valuable player than Otto in their respective primes.
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Re: Who will be better: Beal or Porter? 

Post#3 » by nate33 » Wed Nov 18, 2015 9:01 pm

Illmatic12 wrote:Beal has visibly improved on everything he talked about. If you like, I can show you clips of more explosive finishes at the rim and improved PnR ballhandling moves that he wasn't doing before, and improved shooting off the dribble. I expect those to bear out in his game as the season progresses, and his FTr will go up as the jumpshot frequency goes down. If Beal develops into what I expect him to (essentially, a 6'5 SG version of Damian Lillard with good defense) I think he'll be a more valuable player than Otto in their respective primes.


It seems like the development plan for Beal is to force him into a high usage role where there is lots of glory but lots of mistakes. Basically, he does a lot of good things which are offset by a lot of bad things (missed shots and turnovers). Porter is sort of the opposite. He has a low usage rate where he doesn't do a whole lot of good things, but he does virtually no bad things. He simply doesn't miss many shots nor turn the ball over.

I guess the question is, which type of player is better at scaling up? Is it easier to take a moderate to low usage player and gradually boost his usage rate without impacting his efficiency? Or is it easier to take a high usage rate player with poor efficiency and have him improve that efficiency? My sense from watching the NBA over the years is that the Bradley Beal Track doesn't work that well. If high usage guys don't show real improvements in efficiency by their 3rd year or so, they probably never will. I think there are more examples of low usage, high efficiency guys who have increased their usage rate over the years. Joe Johnson, Nicolas Batum and Paul George come to mind.

I could be wrong though. I wonder if Nivek has any data on this.
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Re: Who will be better: Beal or Porter? 

Post#4 » by Dat2U » Wed Nov 18, 2015 9:14 pm

Porter had more on-ball skills coming out of G-Town despite being 5 inches taller. Brad has worked real hard to improve his limited handle to where it is now to where he's passed Otto in that aspect. Also, the Wizards have basically ignored Otto's mid-range game and developed ability to operate out of the triple threat position foul line extended. I'd say Brad is the more valuable player...simply because the Wizards have invested more in his skill set and seem more interested in using it. Otto seemed almost like an after-thought, looked at as if he's nothing more than a 3&D guy.
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Re: Who will be better: Beal or Porter? 

Post#5 » by Dark Faze » Wed Nov 18, 2015 9:19 pm

I don't know. We've seen guys develop things that I never thought was even really possible so Porter could come out of nowhere with some unforseen skillset.
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Re: Who will be better: Beal or Porter? 

Post#6 » by nate33 » Wed Nov 18, 2015 9:23 pm

Dark Faze wrote:I don't know. We've seen guys develop things that I never thought was even really possible so Porter could come out of nowhere with some unforseen skillset.

I'm telling you, I think we're seeing it right now. Porter is very good at running the pick-and-roll. A 3/5 PnR with Porter and Gortat should add a really interesting wrinkle to our offensive sets as teams focus so hard at containing Wall and Beal.
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Re: Who will be better: Beal or Porter? 

Post#7 » by Ruzious » Wed Nov 18, 2015 9:29 pm

I think the answer lies partly in their personalities - where Beal has the makings of an alpa dog (though he's not there yet), and Porter's not that type. Porter is a sure thing above average player - but he's got a lower ceiling than Beal. In the fourth quarter, it's clear who the Wiz feel more comfortable with taking shots. They're both becoming outstanding on D. While Porter is taller and longer, he's not a strong guy especially for his position(s). Beal is, and he's going to learn to use that more and more. He's also a bit more explosive as an athlete and quicker, imo.
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Re: Who will be better: Beal or Porter? 

Post#8 » by TheSecretWeapon » Wed Nov 18, 2015 9:34 pm

nate33 wrote:
Illmatic12 wrote:Beal has visibly improved on everything he talked about. If you like, I can show you clips of more explosive finishes at the rim and improved PnR ballhandling moves that he wasn't doing before, and improved shooting off the dribble. I expect those to bear out in his game as the season progresses, and his FTr will go up as the jumpshot frequency goes down. If Beal develops into what I expect him to (essentially, a 6'5 SG version of Damian Lillard with good defense) I think he'll be a more valuable player than Otto in their respective primes.


It seems like the development plan for Beal is to force him into a high usage role where there is lots of glory but lots of mistakes. Basically, he does a lot of good things which are offset by a lot of bad things (missed shots and turnovers). Porter is sort of the opposite. He has a low usage rate where he doesn't do a whole lot of good things, but he does virtually no bad things. He simply doesn't miss many shots nor turn the ball over.

I guess the question is, which type of player is better at scaling up? Is it easier to take a moderate to low usage player and gradually boost his usage rate without impacting his efficiency? Or is it easier to take a high usage rate player with poor efficiency and have him improve that efficiency? My sense from watching the NBA over the years is that the Bradley Beal Track doesn't work that well. If high usage guys don't show real improvements in efficiency by their 3rd year or so, they probably never will. I think there are more examples of low usage, high efficiency guys who have increased their usage rate over the years. Joe Johnson, Nicolas Batum and Paul George come to mind.

I could be wrong though. I wonder if Nivek has any data on this.

The research on the relationship between usage and efficiency has found that the theorized relationship does exist. On average, players are more efficient when they use fewer possessions and less efficient when they use more possessions. (Possession usage being measured as a percentage of the team's possession usage.) It's not true of every player -- there are always exceptions. We're talking rule-of-thumb stuff here.

The best study I've read on the subject was done by Eli Witus awhile ago. He found that for every 1% a player increases his usage, his efficiency drops by 1.25 points per 100 possessions. A similar study done by Dean Oliver some years before Eli's had a similar finding, albeit a smaller drop in efficiency -- for every 1% increase in usage, Dean estimated a 0.6 point per 100 possessions drop in efficiency. Eli worked hard in his study to control for confounding factors by looking at lineup data where players were forced to increase or decrease usage. For example, Eli looked at low-usage and high-usage lineups. He found that lower-usage (where the 5 players had "normal" usage rates total below 100%) were less efficient than anticipated; and vice versa for higher-usage lineups (where "normal" usage rates for the five players exceeded 100%).

Applying Eli's finding to Beal and Porter suggests they're essentially the same player (in terms of overall efficiency) on offense. Porter has an ortg of 118 with a 15.3% usage rate. At Beal's 26.0% usage rate, Porter would be expected to have an ortg of about 105. If Beal had a usage rate similar to Porter's, he'd project to an ortg of about 118, which is where Porter is.
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Re: Who will be better: Beal or Porter? 

Post#9 » by Illmatic12 » Wed Nov 18, 2015 9:35 pm

nate33 wrote:
Illmatic12 wrote:Beal has visibly improved on everything he talked about. If you like, I can show you clips of more explosive finishes at the rim and improved PnR ballhandling moves that he wasn't doing before, and improved shooting off the dribble. I expect those to bear out in his game as the season progresses, and his FTr will go up as the jumpshot frequency goes down. If Beal develops into what I expect him to (essentially, a 6'5 SG version of Damian Lillard with good defense) I think he'll be a more valuable player than Otto in their respective primes.


It seems like the development plan for Beal is to force him into a high usage role where there is lots of glory but lots of mistakes. Basically, he does a lot of good things which are offset by a lot of bad things (missed shots and turnovers). Porter is sort of the opposite. He has a low usage rate where he doesn't do a whole lot of good things, but he does virtually no bad things. He simply doesn't miss many shots nor turn the ball over.

I guess the question is, which type of player is better at scaling up? Is it easier to take a moderate to low usage player and gradually boost his usage rate without impacting his efficiency? Or is it easier to take a high usage rate player with poor efficiency and have him improve that efficiency? My sense from watching the NBA over the years is that the Bradley Beal Track doesn't work that well. If high usage guys don't show real improvements in efficiency by their 3rd year or so, they probably never will. I think there are more examples of low usage, high efficiency guys who have increased their usage rate over the years. Joe Johnson, Nicolas Batum and Paul George come to mind.

I could be wrong though. I wonder if Nivek has any data on this.

I think the difference between the two, when projecting higher usage, is that Beal's jumpshot is more respected by the defense giving him an inherent advantage in most play types. We see what guards like Curry, Lillard are able to do to modern defenses due to their ability to create threes off the dribble. Beal has a higher ceiling than Porter in being able to shoot from long range, as that part of his game develops it's really going to open up the floor. Simply having a high TS% doesn't mean the defense is going to tilt towards a particular player, it's more about the areas on the floor and specific play types where said player presents a threat.


Beal has actually been an above average over his career when it comes to protecting the ball. In both of his playoffs for example, Beal handled high usage fairly well without turning the ball over much (24.7 USG%/10.3 TOV%). So he's not all that mistake prone, I think you're maybe overreacting to the SSS when the offense was out of whack.


As for Porter, I actually think he would scale up in usage pretty well.. he's easily a future 17+ppg scorer imo. I'm glad you posted those stats on his PnR play, to the eye test I could tell he was quite good at working the PnR with our bigs and the numbers confirm. Otto is also underrated as a slasher, his arm length and long strides allow him to get to the hoop and create contact for FTs. As he adds strength, I expect that part of his game to become even more valuable. Another positive I've noticed, the team likes to uses Porter in the 'Draymond' role to rebound and push the ball up the floor, and Beal is usually a finisher running with Otto or John. They're both good in those respective roles, in fact Beal actually ranks in the 90th percentile in transition scoring. So plenty of reasons to be high on both of these young players moving forward.
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Re: Who will be better: Beal or Porter? 

Post#10 » by TheSecretWeapon » Wed Nov 18, 2015 9:38 pm

I won't be able to post full results, but in the numbers today, Porter has a PPA of 152. Beal's at 122, which would be the best mark of his career if he maintained it for the full season.
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Re: Who will be better: Beal or Porter? 

Post#11 » by J-Ves » Wed Nov 18, 2015 9:45 pm

I say Porter. His midrange shot is money and he scores inside very effectively. His handle, passing ability, defense, and movement without the ball are all above average for his position. His bbiq is very high. The only things that hold him back are his 3 pt shooting(which will improve in time) and his mindset of a role player. If he could learn to be more selfish his scoring numbers would sky rocket.

As much as I like Beal, his shaky handle will prevent him from reaching his full potential as it will limit his ability to get to the line.


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Re: Who will be better: Beal or Porter? 

Post#12 » by nuposse04 » Wed Nov 18, 2015 9:56 pm

Porter is shooting insanely well from mid range, to the point I don't think he can sustain it. I have some faith in the consistency of Beal's 3 pt shot and EVENTUALLY getting foul calls. Porter should improve his 3 pt shooting eventually however so his efficiency ought to be maintained.

If when Beal comes back and we improve defensively (I assume Beal is a better defender) I am sure his contributions to winning should help to. Playing "lesser" competition for the last couple games should inflate some stats since Beal wasn't able to partake as well.

What I like from Porter is that he has accepted a higher role in Beal's absence and delivered. When Beal does come back they need to work on finding some sort of middle grown, possibly the whole team, on how much playmaking they take on. I think Beal can get his TOs down in due time.

This is a good "problem" or discussion to have though :P
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Re: Who will be better: Beal or Porter? 

Post#13 » by Illmatic12 » Wed Nov 18, 2015 10:04 pm

To drive my earlier points home, here are some clips (courtesy of Hoop District) showing Beal doing a LOT of stuff he wasn't doing last year:


Creating threes off the dribble:

Spoiler:






Attacking mismatches off the dribble, and not settling but getting all the way to the rim:

Spoiler:





Attacking bigs in the paint, and strong finishes with his OFF hand:

Spoiler:






So yeah.. he has clearly improved his game over the summer. Which I think will start to bear out as the season goes on.

And keep in mind he's only going to get stronger/more explosive as a finisher moving forward - he's still 3-4 years from his physical peak. Beal will be way better than someone like Derozan by that same age (and if he gets an All-Star nod, he will start getting some of the foul calls that Wade, Derozan get).
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Re: Who will be better: Beal or Porter? 

Post#14 » by nate33 » Wed Nov 18, 2015 11:12 pm

Illmatic12 wrote:To drive my earlier points home, here are some clips (courtesy of Hoop District) showing Beal doing a LOT of stuff he wasn't doing last year:


Creating threes off the dribble:

Spoiler:






Attacking mismatches off the dribble, and not settling but getting all the way to the rim:

Spoiler:





Attacking bigs in the paint, and strong finishes with his OFF hand:

Spoiler:






So yeah.. he has clearly improved his game over the summer. Which I think will start to bear out as the season goes on.

And keep in mind he's only going to get stronger/more explosive as a finisher moving forward - he's still 3-4 years from his physical peak. Beal will be way better than someone like Derozan by that same age (and if he gets an All-Star nod, he will start getting some of the foul calls that Wade, Derozan get).

Good stuff, Illmatic.

Beal has always been a little odd with this stuff. It seems that every year, he looks better than the year before. He adds ball-handing abilities, pick-and-roll abilities, etc. But when you look at his actual numbers, you just don't see much tangible improvement. He's the same guy, year after year.

This year does see a bit different. His efficiency may not have changed much, but his style of play is definitely different. His USG% is way up and he's rebounding better. He's cut way back on the long 2's in favor of taking it to the cup. Hopefully, the turnovers are a small sample size issue and he'll get that back down to career norms. Of course, I expect his 3P% to dip a bit as well.
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Re: Who will be better: Beal or Porter? 

Post#15 » by tontoz » Wed Nov 18, 2015 11:25 pm

Personally i like Porter more than Beal. Porter hasn't played many minutes as a starter yet always seems a step or two ahead of everyone else mentally. He is posting good numbers in spite of poor 3 point shooting, something i can't see Beal ever doing. Offensively Beal is mediocre to bad at everything other than 3 point shooting.
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Re: Who will be better: Beal or Porter? 

Post#16 » by Illmatic12 » Wed Nov 18, 2015 11:57 pm

nate33 wrote:
Illmatic12 wrote:To drive my earlier points home, here are some clips (courtesy of Hoop District) showing Beal doing a LOT of stuff he wasn't doing last year:


Creating threes off the dribble:

Spoiler:






Attacking mismatches off the dribble, and not settling but getting all the way to the rim:

Spoiler:





Attacking bigs in the paint, and strong finishes with his OFF hand:

Spoiler:






So yeah.. he has clearly improved his game over the summer. Which I think will start to bear out as the season goes on.

And keep in mind he's only going to get stronger/more explosive as a finisher moving forward - he's still 3-4 years from his physical peak. Beal will be way better than someone like Derozan by that same age (and if he gets an All-Star nod, he will start getting some of the foul calls that Wade, Derozan get).

Good stuff, Illmatic.

Beal has always been a little odd with this stuff. It seems that every year, he looks better than the year before. He adds ball-handing abilities, pick-and-roll abilities, etc. But when you look at his actual numbers, you just don't see much tangible improvement. He's the same guy, year after year.

This year does see a bit different. His efficiency may not have changed much, but his style of play is definitely different. His USG% is way up and he's rebounding better. He's cut way back on the long 2's in favor of taking it to the cup. Hopefully, the turnovers are a small sample size issue and he'll get that back down to career norms. Of course, I expect his 3P% to dip a bit as well.

I think more than anything, that's because he kept getting injured, year after year. And they were the type of unlucky injuries that would hamper his development.

For example, take Beal's game logs from last season:

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/6580/year/2015/bradley-beal

Beal broke his wrist in preseason, and (unlike with Wall's injury) the bone he fractured required a sling to heal so he couldn't do anything bball-related. When he comes back, he actually plays quite well and looked like he was on the verge of breaking out, then his production/efficiency started to tail off.. bc later we find out that he had been playing through a stress injury, which the Wiz staff finally diagnosed and took him off the court.

When he comes back from the stress reaction, he's on a minutes limitation and imo his play reflected that of someone trying to avoid another injury setback. If you recall, a lot of us on this board (myself included) were getting fed up with him in that post-injury stretch because he was just chucking jumpers, deferring to Pierce/Nene, and refusing to attack the basket. Was he lacking confidence in his physical abilities due to injury concerns? I think that's a possible and likely explanation.

Towards the end of the reg season the minutes limit is removed and Beal starts to turn it up. Come playoffs, he looks like a completely different player, comfortably handling high usage and making plays all over the court.

That's the problem with using a statistical analysis only, in the particular case of Beal's 3yr development there are too many outside factors that need to be taken into context. It's hard to draw conclusions from a 3yr sample size of a player who was either not on the court, playing injured, or on a minutes limitation for a significant % of that time.. and was also one of the youngest starting guards in the league throughout that period.

If Beal can provide 70+ healthy games this season, I'm very certain his advanced stats will reflect improvement. That's not based on a statistical regression analysis that compares his career track to other shooting guards, or any of that stuff. It's based on having seen visible progress in the areas he needed to improve upon to become a better player, and knowing that everyone around the organization can attest to BB's work ethic. He's not lazy, and from his quotes he clearly knows what he needs to work on (eliminating long twos, ballhandling, shooting threes off the dribble, drawing FTs).. so why wouldn't he improve? Outside of the injury bug *knock on wood* I'm not worried about Beal's development at all.
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Re: Who will be better: Beal or Porter? 

Post#17 » by queridiculo » Thu Nov 19, 2015 12:00 am

Porter has the potential to affect the game in more ways than Beal.

He's already a better defender and rebounder, and his ability to get involved in the offense off the ball is uncanny. Also love his ability to finish around the rim. He's got incredibly touch and has great instincts to find space by contorting his lanky body.

Love everything about his game, Noel who? A bit early into their respective careers, but Porter's definitely much further along than the guy I wanted in his place.

If I had to pick between Porter and Beal I'd probably go with Otto-matic. Not sold on Beal as a near max player.
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Re: Who will be better: Beal or Porter? 

Post#18 » by Illmatic12 » Thu Nov 19, 2015 12:12 am

queridiculo wrote:Porter has the potential to affect the game in more ways than Beal.

He's already a better defender and rebounder, and his ability to get involved in the offense off the ball is uncanny. Also love his ability to finish around the rim. He's got incredibly touch and has great instincts to find space by contorting his lanky body.

Love everything about his game, Noel who? A bit early into their respective careers, but Porter's definitely much further along than the guy I wanted in his place.

If I had to pick between Porter and Beal I'd probably go with Otto-matic. Not sold on Beal as a near max player.

I've been watching Sixers games because I own Noel in a fantasy bb money league.. his development is frustrating. He's purely just an athlete, he lacks any skill or competency on the offensive end. Instead of playing within himself, he fancies himself a perimeter player and tries to awkwardly shoot off the dribble and pass like a guard, with expected terrible results. I don't think there's another PF/C with a worse fg% than Noel, or a higher TO rate. His shot selection and decision making is atrocious, and their coaching staff doesn't seem to be reigning him in enough.


I think he will look a lot better when Wroten gets back, because right now their guard play is poor (TJ McConnell is a gimmick), at least Wroten can penetrate and make life easier for Noel on the offensive end. He'd certainly have higher efficiency on offense with a PG like Wall. But he's never going to be an offensive threat, and playing with Okafor will slow his development a lot. Quite obvious that Hinkie will end up trading him for the best package, I give the Okafor/Noel experiment another 2 years max.
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Re: Who will be better: Beal or Porter? 

Post#19 » by Vincent_Askew » Thu Nov 19, 2015 5:23 am

You guys should save up the money you would've given to Beal and give it to Porter. We'd love to take Beal off your hands this summer and team him up with Porzingis.

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Re: Who will be better: Beal or Porter? 

Post#20 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Thu Nov 19, 2015 7:58 am

Vincent_Askew wrote:You guys should save up the money you would've given to Beal and give it to Porter. We'd love to take Beal off your hands this summer and team him up with Porzingis.

K thx bai


I'm convinced Porter will be better than Beal, if he isn't already.

I think the Wizards last two games have been illustration of why Beal and a max deal might not be in the Wizards best interest. But then again, when healthy, Bradley Beal is very solid at both ends of the court.

I hope Beal remains a Wizard and ends up having a Joe Dumars kind of HOF career due to Wizards future championship teams with him, Wall, and Porter a part of them.


"Trade down and draft Demarcus Cousins plus a pick" 2010
"Kirk Cousins will be a starting QB" (even over Griffin) 2012
Dejuan Blair is as good as ever. 2015
Bye bye Beal.

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