Are we a small-market team?

[keynote]

I found this posted on the GB. According to this data (which tracks the # of Facebook fans per team), our Wizards only beat out Utah and Milwaukee in terms of popularity on Facebook.

http://www.statista.com/statistics/240382/facebook-fans-of-national-basketball-association-teams/

The Lakers, Bulls, and Heat lead the pack -- which makes sense, given the glamor and relatively-recent success enjoyed by those franchises. The Lakers have 16x the # of Facebook fans as the Wizards do.

Now, according to Forbes, the Wizards "have been the least socially engaged NBA team the past three years."
http://www.forbes.com/pictures/mlh45emmj/washington-wizards/#17ec98d51b4e
http://www.forbes.com/sites/christinasettimi/2016/01/20/the-nbas-least-engaged-fans/#7e8cd4b91bee

So, that *might* explain the weak Facebook ranking. But I don't think that's right.

This isn't just due to a less-than-stellar social media marketing machine. It's always been that way -- at least, for as long as I can remember. I grew up in Maryland in the '80s/early '90s. I was the only Bullets fan I knew in my high school class of ~80 students or so (located in Takoma Park, MD). Everyone else rooted for Magic, or MJ, or whoever.

I know we stunk in the '90s, but we've made the playoffs 6x since '04-'05, and we had the Michael Jordan Vanity Retirement Tour from '01 to '03. That's not an upper echelon run by any stretch, but it's still a better run than the ever-popular Skins have had during that same stretch.

So why is our fan base so under-populated? The transient nature of the city? Perhaps. But that seems to have hurt the Skins much less (even though, presumably, a transient demographic would care far less about the Skins' glory days of the '80s than a stable, homegrown demographic would). Sub-par marketing? Perhaps. Sustained mediocrity/suckiness? Perhaps. But we're located in a wealthy, populous metropolitan center. Shouldn't we still be able to beat out other "non-glamorous" teams like the Kings or the Suns?

Are we *really* a small-market team, or are we just run like one?

[Rafael122]

If you add the suburban areas, our market is like top 10. Ted runs it like a mid-market team.

[queridiculo]

One of the worst run franchises over the past 40 years, not hard to understand why fans aren't "socially engaged".

[TheSecretWeapon]

The DC area ranks as the 7th largest market, according to Nielsen. The Wizards ranked 16th in total attendance this season. Wikipedia's list of stadium capacities appears to be out of date -- unless Dallas, Chicago, Miami, LA Clippers, San Antonio and Toronto each averaged over capacity crowds.

Based on that list, the Wizards were at 87% of capacity last season, which would rank 24th.

[TheSecretWeapon]

ESPN also has capacities and attendance in a handy table. They have eight teams reporting attendance at more than 100% of listed capacity. Not sure how that works exactly, but...whatever them's the numbers.

According to ESPN, the Wizards rank 24th in home attendance percentage and 18th in road attendance percentage. Overall, the Wizards ranked 24th this season in overall attendance percentage -- their games were at 89.8% capacity. League average looks to be about 94%. The teams than ranked worse than the Wizards in attendance vs. capacity: Brooklyn, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Denver, Detroit, and Philly. That's the same group that ranked lower than the Wizards in home attendance percentage.

[AFM]

DC isn't a small market, we've just been bad for so long

[dckingsfan]

Nope, we just have a small minded owner and GM.

[keynote]

One of the worst run franchises over the past 40 years, not hard to understand why fans aren't "socially engaged".

Fair enough. But why didn't the halo of our success in the '70s last longer? We were a contender throughout the '70s, yet a decade later, I was the only Bullets fan I knew. That's a *rapid* decline. In theory, the Bullets should've been able to hang onto fans through the '80s -- we were stuck in mediocrity, but we at least made the playoffs six times during the decade, and fans would've had the memories of the previous decade's successes to rely on. Of course, even that good will would've likely expired during the malaise of the '90s.

Meanwhile, the Snyder-owned Skins have been a dumpster fire, yet the city hangs on to the memories of success from 25+ years ago. The Skins are practically a case study in what *not* to do maintain and engender good will with a fan base (embarrasingly racist name/logo that society increasingly finds objectionable, suburban stadium, parking nightmares, nickel-and-dime pricing models, loudly dysfunctional football operations) -- yet DC remains a football town.

[Illuminaire]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the 70s Bullets contenders seemed a lot like the mid-2000s Pistons. A good team that peaked at just the right time to snag a championship... but only a good team, not a great one. And with no transcendent players to pull in new fans either.

[FAH1223]

One of the worst run franchises over the past 40 years, not hard to understand why fans aren't "socially engaged".

Fair enough. But why didn't the halo of our success in the '70s last longer? We were a contender throughout the '70s, yet a decade later, I was the only Bullets fan I knew. That's a *rapid* decline. In theory, the Bullets should've been able to hang onto fans through the '80s -- we were stuck in mediocrity, but we at least made the playoffs six times during the decade, and fans would've had the memories of the previous decade's successes to rely on. Of course, even that good will would've likely expired during the malaise of the '90s.

Meanwhile, the Snyder-owned Skins have been a dumpster fire, yet the city hangs on to the memories of success from 25+ years ago. The Skins are practically a case study in what *not* to do maintain and engender good will with a fan base (embarrasingly racist name/logo that society increasingly finds objectionable, suburban stadium, parking nightmares, nickel-and-dime pricing models, loudly dysfunctional football operations) -- yet DC remains a football town.

It's cause the Bullets were routinely spectators of the Bird/Magic era and didn't draft the Karl Malones of the world when they had the chance.

[montestewart]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the 70s Bullets contenders seemed a lot like the mid-2000s Pistons. A good team that peaked at just the right time to snag a championship... but only a good team, not a great one. And with no transcendent players to pull in new fans either.

They made it to the finals in 1971, 1975, 1978, and 1979. Unseld won MVP as a rookie in 1969 and Hayes was top-5 in MVP voting three times. Part of the problem was they moved from Baltimore to DC in the middle of that run then set up shop in Largo. At the time they were forging a winning tradition, they had barely remade themselves as a DC team. with the passage of subsequent years, they managed to become a DC team (on the fringes, in the Maryland suburbs) while firmly establishing the banality of their existence.

The move into DC helped a little, as did MJ, Arenas, and some playoff appearances, but their many missteps have hurt them, and Pollin for years seemed to run the operation on a 60s-70s model. I'm no marketing expert, but the Wizards marketing has never been very impressive to me. People want to back a winner. When they Bullets were winners, they were barely a DC team, and everything since has generally screamed LOSER! EG's GMing fits very well with this model.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

ESPN also has capacities and attendance in a handy table. They have eight teams reporting attendance at more than 100% of listed capacity. Not sure how that works exactly, but...whatever them's the numbers.

According to ESPN, the Wizards rank 24th in home attendance percentage and 18th in road attendance percentage. Overall, the Wizards ranked 24th this season in overall attendance percentage -- their games were at 89.8% capacity. League average looks to be about 94%. The teams than ranked worse than the Wizards in attendance vs. capacity: Brooklyn, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Denver, Detroit, and Philly. That's the same group that ranked lower than the Wizards in home attendance percentage.

Does ESPN have a stat for the emptiest lower bowl at the start of games?

I'm sure the Wiz would win that one.

[keynote]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the 70s Bullets contenders seemed a lot like the mid-2000s Pistons. A good team that peaked at just the right time to snag a championship... but only a good team, not a great one. And with no transcendent players to pull in new fans either.

They made it to the finals in 1971, 1975, 1978, and 1979. Unseld won MVP as a rookie in 1969 and Hayes was top-5 in MVP voting three times. Part of the problem was they moved from Baltimore to DC in the middle of that run then set up shop in Largo. At the time they were forging a winning tradition, they had barely remade themselves as a DC team. with the passage of subsequent years, they managed to become a DC team (on the fringes, in the Maryland suburbs) while firmly establishing the banality of their existence.

Good point. The team's moves from Baltimore to PG County to DC may have diluted their attempts to build a strong home fan base. Although, that doesn't explain why the Wizards have failed so miserably in penetrating the Baltimore market.

In this 2014 NYT map, Baltimore is/was Heat and Laker country. The Wizards can't even crack the top 3 -- which is terrible, considering that they're only ~1 hour away.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/05/12/upshot/basketball-map.html?_r=0#10,39.290,-76.612

The Baltimore Sun's website doesn't even have a dedicated section for the Wizards; they just cover a general Pro Basketball beat instead. In contrast, WaPo covered the Orioles as the local baseball team for years until the Nats came into town. I know the Sun has had to shrink its coverage over time (especially as it gets passed around from news conglomerate to news conglomerate) -- but they still focus on the O's, Ravens, Terps, etc. The Xfinity Center is, what, 15 minutes closer to Baltimore than the Verizon Center? But Baltimore couldn't care less about the Wizards, apparently, so I get it.

The move into DC helped a little, as did MJ, Arenas, and some playoff appearances, but their many missteps have hurt them, and Pollin for years seemed to run the operation on a 60s-70s model. I'm no marketing expert, but the Wizards marketing has never been very impressive to me. People want to back a winner. When they Bullets were winners, they were barely a DC team, and everything since has generally screamed LOSER! EG's GMing fits very well with this model.

I hear you -- it's a loser operation, no question. But it's the only game in town, and *still* the region is slow to adopt the team and quick to abandon. This year, TV ratings are down 34% from last year -- despite back-to-back trips to the second round in recent memory ("one wrist injury from the EC Finals," and all that). Sure, the team's play has slipped, but man, it's like the previous two years never happened.

[keynote]

ESPN also has capacities and attendance in a handy table. They have eight teams reporting attendance at more than 100% of listed capacity. Not sure how that works exactly, but...whatever them's the numbers.

According to ESPN, the Wizards rank 24th in home attendance percentage and 18th in road attendance percentage. Overall, the Wizards ranked 24th this season in overall attendance percentage -- their games were at 89.8% capacity. League average looks to be about 94%. The teams than ranked worse than the Wizards in attendance vs. capacity: Brooklyn, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Denver, Detroit, and Philly. That's the same group that ranked lower than the Wizards in home attendance percentage.

Does ESPN have a stat for the emptiest lower bowl at the start of games?

I'm sure the Wiz would win that one.

Dunno. The Heat might have us beat in that department. It's like they add an "-ish" to the start time in their advertising.

[CobraCommander]

ESPN also has capacities and attendance in a handy table. They have eight teams reporting attendance at more than 100% of listed capacity. Not sure how that works exactly, but...whatever them's the numbers.

According to ESPN, the Wizards rank 24th in home attendance percentage and 18th in road attendance percentage. Overall, the Wizards ranked 24th this season in overall attendance percentage -- their games were at 89.8% capacity. League average looks to be about 94%. The teams than ranked worse than the Wizards in attendance vs. capacity: Brooklyn, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Denver, Detroit, and Philly. That's the same group that ranked lower than the Wizards in home attendance percentage.

Does ESPN have a stat for the emptiest lower bowl at the start of games?

I'm sure the Wiz would win that one.

Dunno. The Heat might have us beat in that department. It's like they add an "-ish" to the start time in their advertising.

I went to Lakers games last year and they had a empty lower bowl. I assume next year will be the same with no Kobe tour.

I went to an Atlanta game this year and it was empty as hell in the lower bowl even though they have a good product.

I don't understand why the Wiz don't have a better attendance record but I would suggest that it's ticket prices. When I go to Wizards games (and I do about 20 games a year which makes me as active as Bradley Beal) I see a lot of Wizards fans around the areana but the prices for decent seats seem to be too high for the majority of the DC residents.

[montestewart]

When I go to Wizards games (and I do about 20 games a year which makes me as active as Bradley Beal)

Don't let this one sneak by.

[keynote]

I don't understand why the Wiz don't have a better attendance record but I would suggest that it's ticket prices. When I go to Wizards games (and I do about 20 games a year which makes me as active as Bradley Beal)...

Heh.

...I see a lot of Wizards fans around the areana but the prices for decent seats seem to be too high for the majority of the DC residents.

The Wizards were 15th in average ticket price in 2015-16.
http://www.statista.com/statistics/193720/average-ticket-price-in-the-nba-by-team-in-2010/

And, the DMV is either the richest metropolitan area in the country, or the third richest metropolitan area in the country, behind the Bay/Silicon Valley and the NYC metro area, depending on what metric you use.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highest-income_metropolitan_statistical_areas_in_the_United_States#Metropolitan_statistical_areas_ranked_by_per_capita_income
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highest-income_metropolitan_statistical_areas_in_the_United_States

The tickets would be plenty affordable if the folks with disposable income in the area actually wanted to go.

[TheSecretWeapon]

When I go to Wizards games (and I do about 20 games a year which makes me as active as Bradley Beal)

Don't let this one sneak by.

That's a HOF line.

[CobraCommander]

I don't understand why the Wiz don't have a better attendance record but I would suggest that it's ticket prices. When I go to Wizards games (and I do about 20 games a year which makes me as active as Bradley Beal)...

Heh.

...I see a lot of Wizards fans around the areana but the prices for decent seats seem to be too high for the majority of the DC residents.

The Wizards were 15th in average ticket price in 2015-16.
http://www.statista.com/statistics/193720/average-ticket-price-in-the-nba-by-team-in-2010/

And, the DMV is either the richest metropolitan area in the country, or the third richest metropolitan area in the country, behind the Bay/Silicon Valley and the NYC metro area, depending on what metric you use.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highest-income_metropolitan_statistical_areas_in_the_United_States#Metropolitan_statistical_areas_ranked_by_per_capita_income
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highest-income_metropolitan_statistical_areas_in_the_United_States

The tickets would be plenty affordable if the folks with disposable income in the area actually wanted to go.

I agree that if the folks with disposable income in the area wanted to go the tickets would be affordable for them...but the people that like basketball that actually live in the DMV can't afford tickets. If you have been down to the phone booth you will notice that the people that are around the arena can't afford to take a family of 4 to a game and sit in the lower bowl. I go by myself (or with Destro and Zartan) and I spend about $125/200 per seat per ticket off the street in DC. When I go to away games I do stub hub and get decent seats because areanas don't sell out when the Wizards come to town.

My thought is, if you want to fill the areana, make quality tickets affordable to the people that love the Wizards. not just the people that can afford expensive tickets BUT only care about the team when they are winning. So in other words...if you are not a winning team (winning team = high quality product) make your tickets affordable to build up your fan loyalty while you improve your product. But once the team gets good, don't raise your prices so high that your loyal blue collar fans cant afford to go to a game anymore.

[JWizmentality]

Barely relevant team in a huge market. That's what happens when you've been so bad for so long with brainless owners who maintain the status quo. We need a renaissance. Forward thinking leadership who actually cares about this team and not just making money or fancy urinal cakes.

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